Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Shonn Greene Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[FF Ninja]

Shonn Greene turns 27 and enters his fourth year in the NFL but he already seems forgotten. With the departure of LT, Greene appears in line for the vast majority of RB touches this year, yet his ADP of 63 places him at the beginning of the 6th round in 12-team leagues. He is going as the 23rd RB off the board despite finishing 18th last year with Tomlinson on the roster.

Once considered to have stone hands, he caught 30 of 41 targets last year for 73% compared to 42 of 60 (70%) for Tomlinson. I doubt that Greene receives Tomlinson's third down duties, but it is likely that Greene is on the field a bit more, thus receiving a few more targets.

The entire team only rushed for 8 and 9 TDs the last two years in a confusing trend away from the ground game despite Sanchez's struggles. In the last three years the RB carries have decreased 534, 456, 397 while Sanchez's ypa has decreased 6.7, 6.5, 6.4. This middling QB threw the ball 542 times last year, so I feel like this trend has to have hit the ceiling, so I expect approximately 400 RB carries again this year although there is an outside chance that Ryan comes to his senses and demands the OC run the ball more. Should Tebow see the field, this is very likely to happen. And although I'd expect that to make things more difficult for the RBs, Tebow's presence seemed to rejuvenate McGahee's career.

So even if things don't get better and Greene only manages half a dozen TDs, he still presents great value at his current ADP. I can't imagine he scores less TDs next year, so you are getting him at below the price of his likely floor. I say likely because the only way he doesn't put up a similar 253/1054/6,30/211/0 would be if he were to get injured or replaced by Powell or McKnight. At this point I think the reward well outweighs the risk. In fact, I'll be surprised if he doesn't outproduce much higher drafted guys such as Trent Richardson. Talent may be more important than situation in dynasty, but for 2012 I think playing for a team that runs the ball 400 times (vs. 300), scores touchdowns (40 vs. 20), and has a good defense will prove more valuable.

260 carries x 4.3 ypc = 1118 yds 8 TD, 40 rec x 7.5 = 300 yds, 0 TD

 

[ldizzle]

Shonn Greene turns 27 and enters his fourth year in the NFL but he already seems forgotten. With the departure of LT, Greene appears in line for the vast majority of RB touches this year, yet his ADP of 63 places him at the beginning of the 6th round in 12-team leagues. He is going as the 23rd RB off the board despite finishing 18th last year with Tomlinson on the roster.

Once considered to have stone hands, he caught 30 of 41 targets last year for 73% compared to 42 of 60 (70%) for Tomlinson. I doubt that Greene receives Tomlinson's third down duties, but it is likely that Greene is on the field a bit more, thus receiving a few more targets.

The entire team only rushed for 8 and 9 TDs the last two years in a confusing trend away from the ground game despite Sanchez's struggles. In the last three years the RB carries have decreased 534, 456, 397 while Sanchez's ypa has decreased 6.7, 6.5, 6.4. This middling QB threw the ball 542 times last year, so I feel like this trend has to have hit the ceiling, so I expect approximately 400 RB carries again this year although there is an outside chance that Ryan comes to his senses and demands the OC run the ball more. Should Tebow see the field, this is very likely to happen. And although I'd expect that to make things more difficult for the RBs, Tebow's presence seemed to rejuvenate McGahee's career.

So even if things don't get better and Greene only manages half a dozen TDs, he still presents great value at his current ADP. I can't imagine he scores less TDs next year, so you are getting him at below the price of his likely floor. I say likely because the only way he doesn't put up a similar 253/1054/6,30/211/0 would be if he were to get injured or replaced by Powell or McKnight. At this point I think the reward well outweighs the risk. In fact, I'll be surprised if he doesn't outproduce much higher drafted guys such as Trent Richardson. Talent may be more important than situation in dynasty, but for 2012 I think playing for a team that runs the ball 400 times (vs. 300), scores touchdowns (40 vs. 20), and has a good defense will prove more valuable.

260 carries x 4.3 ypc = 1118 yds 8 TD, 40 rec x 7.5 = 300 yds, 0 TD

you said that he should see more tds this year, but how do you feel about the Jets having Tebow put on 10 more lbs of muscle for this season. do you think that he is going to be their package td vulture?

 

[butcher boy]

Tebow's going to be the starting QB before long and totally kill Greene's value, who isnt that good to begin with.

190 touches, 770 yards, 4 TDs

 

[ldizzle]

Tebow's going to be the starting QB before long and totally kill Greene's value, who isnt that good to begin with.190 touches, 770 yards, 4 TDs

why the low amount of carries?eta:he had 253 last year,year before he had 185 & tomlinson had 219

 

[Matt Bitonti]

Tebow's going to be the starting QB before long

there's no way the Jets are paying Mark Sanchez 10 million dollars to be Tebow's backup. The only way tebow starts is if Mark gets hurt or the team starts 1-5 or some other disaster. In which case there's probably not much fantasy value in any of these guys. as for Greene I believe he's in a contract year. the Jets OL is way above average, with 3 of 5 players AFC Pro Bowlers last year. His competition is Joe MckNight and Terrence Ganaway. and the new OC Sparano is probably going to focus on the running game. All of this is good news for Greene.

 

[butcher boy]

Tebow's going to be the starting QB before long and totally kill Greene's value, who isnt that good to begin with.190 touches, 770 yards, 4 TDs

why the low amount of carries?eta:he had 253 last year,year before he had 185 & tomlinson had 219

Gut feeling. Greene has never been a great player and Tebow's presence seems to kill running back values.

 

[lbouchard]

Tebow's the goal line back, I'm not expecting many TDs at all from Greene

 

[LittlePhatty]

and the new OC Sparano is probably going to focus on the running game.

This is probably the key piece of info. IF the Jets actually commit to running more often. The past couple of years seemed to be an effort to force Sanchez into the "star" role, sacrificing a portion of the ground attack in the process. I don't see him as the kind of guy who can break into the Top 10 by the end of the year, but I think he'll out-perform his current ADP of RB24. I do worry about Tebow vultering some goal-line TDs though.

 

[meyerj31]

Question .... for the next 2 years, would anyone prefer to have Shonne Greene over Reggie Wayne in a PPR format?

 

[David Yudkin]

As I mentioned in other places, Greene's workload, fantasy scoring, and annual rank has increased each year since he came to NY and now LT is out of the picture. I don't see another back on the roster that the Jets would really feel comfortable in turning the job over to.

Guys that get 300 touches are almost always Top 20 fantasy backs unless they really, really are incompetent (low ypc or very few TDs). Even mediocre or average backs with lots of work can have decent fantasy value.

270-1100-6

40-300-1

 

[FF Ninja]

Tebow's presence seems to kill running back values.

McGahee before Tebow (week 1-4): 259 yds/69 carries = 3.75 ypcMcGahee after Tebow (week 7-17): 815 yds/180 carries = 4.53 ypc(week 5 was the switch where both QBs played, week 6 he DNP)

 

[FF Ninja]

you said that he should see more tds this year, but how do you feel about the Jets having Tebow put on 10 more lbs of muscle for this season. do you think that he is going to be their package td vulture?

Good point. Can't rule it out. But if Sparano uses some sort of Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams wildcat, I feel ok about it. Ricky Williams put up some pretty damn good numbers in that combo.The Jets threw the ball a LOT around the goal line last year. If they start running the ball every down inside the five then I'm fine with Greene getting 40% of those rushes and Tebow getting 60%, because it would actually be more net goal line exposure than last year.

 

[Sabertooth]

How does Greene actually look catching the ball? Any skill at all or is he pretty useless there?

 

[LittlePhatty]

Tebow's presence seems to kill running back values.

McGahee before Tebow (week 1-4): 259 yds/69 carries = 3.75 ypcMcGahee after Tebow (week 7-17): 815 yds/180 carries = 4.53 ypc(week 5 was the switch where both QBs played, week 6 he DNP)

That's Tebow in a full-time QB role. It's doubtful this info is relevant at all to the Jets/Greene situation unless they really do give up on Sanchez.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Tebow's presence seems to kill running back values.

McGahee before Tebow (week 1-4): 259 yds/69 carries = 3.75 ypMcGahee after Tebow (week 7-17): 815 yds/180 carries = 4.53 ypc(week 5 was the switch where both QBs played, week 6 he DNP)

Running QBs typically seem to open up inside rushing lanes for their RBs as they force defensive fronts to worry more about keeping contain on the perimeter: Dunn's rebirth w/ Vick, CJ2K w/ Young vs. CJ2YPC w/o Young, etc.I'm not a huge fan of Greene, but that's because I think he's mediocre as a player and don't trust him to hold off Powell, McKnight, random street FA, or whoever. If Tebow ends up starting, then I'd actually expect the Jets as a team to run more often and effectively.ETA projection250 carries for 1050 yards, 25 catches for 175, 5 total TDsA repeat of last year's numbers seems reasonable, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised to see one or more of the other guys carve out a larger role and turn this into a multi-way RBBC fantasy mess.

 

[butcher boy]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

 

[FF Ninja]

Tebow's presence seems to kill running back values.

McGahee before Tebow (week 1-4): 259 yds/69 carries = 3.75 ypcMcGahee after Tebow (week 7-17): 815 yds/180 carries = 4.53 ypc(week 5 was the switch where both QBs played, week 6 he DNP)

That's Tebow in a full-time QB role. It's doubtful this info is relevant at all to the Jets/Greene situation unless they really do give up on Sanchez.

I didn't include all the quotes, but his original statement was as follows:

Tebow's going to be the starting QB before long and totally kill Greene's value

So I didn't mean to imply that Tebow would be the starter. I was merely refuting a weak point made by someone earlier.

 

[FF Ninja]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

 

[butcher boy]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

Two different situations. Switch Greene's and McGahee's teams last year, and see who the better back ends up being. Also, if you think Tebow won't be vulturing Greene's TDs (hence hurting his value), then you're the one who's wrong.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

Two different situations. Switch Greene's and McGahee's teams last year, and see who the better back ends up being. Also, if you think Tebow won't be vulturing Greene's TDs (hence hurting his value), then you're the one who's wrong.

Greene was never a big TD guy in the first place, so I am not sure Tebow can really vuture something that Greene didn't rely on in the first place.

 

[Sabertooth]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

He's right. McGahee is an will be the better back until he hits the wall.

 

[Sabertooth]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

Two different situations. Switch Greene's and McGahee's teams last year, and see who the better back ends up being. Also, if you think Tebow won't be vulturing Greene's TDs (hence hurting his value), then you're the one who's wrong.

Greene was never a big TD guy in the first place, so I am not sure Tebow can really vuture something that Greene didn't rely on in the first place.

True, as we all know though TDs are volatile. The addition of Tebow really hurts his potential to spike.

 

[butcher boy]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

Two different situations. Switch Greene's and McGahee's teams last year, and see who the better back ends up being. Also, if you think Tebow won't be vulturing Greene's TDs (hence hurting his value), then you're the one who's wrong.

Greene was never a big TD guy in the first place, so I am not sure Tebow can really vuture something that Greene didn't rely on in the first place.

True, but I've seen people forecasting him to get 8-10 TDs, which I think is really doubtful to happen because of both what you said and the presence of Tebow.

 

[FF Ninja]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

He's right. McGahee is an will be the better back until he hits the wall.

Thanks. That really clears things up. What I appreciate most is the quantifiable data you used.

 

[butcher boy]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

He's right. McGahee is an will be the better back until he hits the wall.

Thanks. That really clears things up. What I appreciate most is the quantifiable data you used.

Last year:McGahee: 249 carries, 1,199 yards, 5 total TDs. 4.8 YPC

Greene: 254 carries, 1,054 yards, 6 total TDs. 4.2 YPC

 

[FF Ninja]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

Two different situations. Switch Greene's and McGahee's teams last year, and see who the better back ends up being. Also, if you think Tebow won't be vulturing Greene's TDs (hence hurting his value), then you're the one who's wrong.

Ok, I did that and it turned out that Greene was the better back. Boom. Now what?Second part, Greene only got 6 TD last year and he still finished RB18. As I stated earlier, if they stop throwing the ball and start running the option at the goal line then I like Greene's chances to score at the goal line as much as he did last year. Sanchez threw a lot at the goal line. Tebow will mostly be vulturing 22 yard field goals from the kicker and a little from Sanchez. Plus, you said that Tebow "kills" RB value which I showed was totally wrong last year. So there is no if/then to me being wrong. You are already wrong.

Furthermore, Greene only got 10 carries inside the 5 yard line, which converted to 3 TD.

opp 5: 2 yds

opp 4: 0 yds, 1 yd

opp 3: TD, 0 yds

opp 1: 0 yds, TD, 0 yds, 0 yds, TD

Sanchez, however, passed for 8 of his 26 TD inside the 5 and scored 6 rushing TD inside the 5. So it stands to reason that Sanchez's value is who Tebow will be hurting.

If there are 17 TD scored within the 5 yard line again next year, even with Tebow in the fold, I think Greene will still get at least 3 of them.

ETA: stat correction

 

[Sabertooth]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

He's right. McGahee is an will be the better back until he hits the wall.

Thanks. That really clears things up. What I appreciate most is the quantifiable data you used.

How is that possible if they never played behind the same line or in the same offensive system? Use your eyes instead of your calculator.

 

[FF Ninja]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

He's right. McGahee is an will be the better back until he hits the wall.

Thanks. That really clears things up. What I appreciate most is the quantifiable data you used.

Last year:McGahee: 249 carries, 1,199 yards, 5 total TDs. 4.8 YPC

Greene: 254 carries, 1,054 yards, 6 total TDs. 4.2 YPC

Hahaha, this coming from the guy who said that Tebow kills RB production! Holy crap, this place is hilarious.As I pointed out, Tebow revitalized McGahee who had only rushed for over 4.1 ypc once in seven seasons before being paired with Tebow. McGahee was the definition of a plodder. His one good season came on 109 carries for Baltimore in which he blew up in a meaningless week 17 matchup against a terrible Oakland team for 167 yards on 16 carries. Prior to that game, he was at his usual 4.05 ypc pace.

So the statistical evidence implies that Tebow's presence made a very average McGahee look good in 2011. I fail to see where anyone could think McGahee is a better RB than Greene.

 

[LittlePhatty]

So I didn't mean to imply that Tebow would be the starter. I was merely refuting a weak point made by someone earlier.

Got it, missed that. The more likely scenario of Sanchez being the starter and Tebow vulturing carries/TDs is far worse for Greene. But on the upside, I've owned Greene in a keeper league every season he's been in the league, and this year I have to throw him back into the pool. So that means he'll probably have a career year.

 

[FF Ninja]

How is that possible if they never played behind the same line or in the same offensive system? Use your eyes instead of your calculator.

Sorry man, but I am not going to use your eyes as a metric in this debate. Move along.

 

[Sweet Love]

How does Greene actually look catching the ball? Any skill at all or is he pretty useless there?

Good question...Last year he had 30 receptions. Each year he has increased those receptions from 0-16-32 (in three years). He also did this with LT on the roster last year getting 42 receptions. If you halve that and give 21 each to Greene and McKnight, you are looking at 50+...also, a fact few seem to know, Greene was one of only 10 RBs last year to have over 200 carries and 30+ receptions.I am not saying he is talented. I am saying he is good enough to get results, the only really "proper" RB on the roster, and running behind two perennial Pro-Bowlers...yeah, I'll take that guy at RB 20.

 

[butcher boy]

Not to mention that McGahee was a better RB than Greene. Whether or not you think Tebow will supplant Sanchez at some point, you pretty much know that he's at least going to vulture TDs.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

He's right. McGahee is an will be the better back until he hits the wall.

Thanks. That really clears things up. What I appreciate most is the quantifiable data you used.

Last year:McGahee: 249 carries, 1,199 yards, 5 total TDs. 4.8 YPC

Greene: 254 carries, 1,054 yards, 6 total TDs. 4.2 YPC

Hahaha, this coming from the guy who said that Tebow kills RB production! Holy crap, this place is hilarious.As I pointed out, Tebow revitalized McGahee who had only rushed for over 4.1 ypc once in seven seasons before being paired with Tebow. McGahee was the definition of a plodder. His one good season came on 109 carries for Baltimore in which he blew up in a meaningless week 17 matchup against a terrible Oakland team for 167 yards on 16 carries. Prior to that game, he was at his usual 4.05 ypc pace.

So the statistical evidence implies that Tebow's presence made a very average McGahee look good in 2011. I fail to see where anyone could think McGahee is a better RB than Greene.

You must be a real hoot at parties.McGahee was bettered by the fact he was in Denver, not necessarily because of Tebow. If anything, if Tebow wasn't on the Broncos to begin with, it could be argued that McGahee's year would've been even better.

 

[FF Ninja]

You must be a real hoot at parties.McGahee was bettered by the fact he was in Denver, not necessarily because of Tebow. If anything, if Tebow wasn't on the Broncos to begin with, it could be argued that McGahee's year would've been even better.

Again, your logic fails to follow any rational thought process. Because I am turned off by your awful analysis I'm suddenly no fun at parties?To further your poor logic, you mention a topic that has already come up. McGahee was putting up 3.75 ypc ON DENVER'S TEAM prior to Tebow's stint as QB. So how is it just being on Denver was good for him, but he wasn't producing until Tebow became the starter?Clearly, you need things spelled out more than once, so I'll paste my earlier response here:

Tebow's presence seems to kill running back values.

McGahee before Tebow (week 1-4): 259 yds/69 carries = 3.75 ypcMcGahee after Tebow (week 7-17): 815 yds/180 carries = 4.53 ypc(week 5 was the switch where both QBs played, week 6 he DNP)

I would say "I'm sorry if I'm being rude", but I'm not sorry. You aren't bringing anything of value to this discussion and I find it irritating. If we were at a party, I'd probably just walk away after hearing you open your mouth, but I feel obligated to dispell your misinformation here in this thread. You don't know what you are talking about, but you keep voicing incorrect statements as facts. Please stop that.

 

[Kiddnets]

I am not a big fan of Greene - I expected himto be much better....that being said he has a gret opprtunity to be the bell cow with little competition except a once in a while wildcat....most are down on him - probably get him as a #3 RB....so I view him as a nice buy.

 

[butcher boy]

So you're using a sample size of a 4 game stretch where they went 1-3 including 3 road games as undisputed proof that Tebow is the reason for McGahee's success in Denver? That's a real leap bro.

 

[FF Ninja]

So you're using a sample size of a 4 game stretch where they went 1-3 including 3 road games as undisputed proof that Tebow is the reason for McGahee's success in Denver? That's a real leap bro.

As opposed to just making $H!^ up like you, I'd say a small sample size is the better way to go... but let's look at it one more time:Save for a week 17 game in 2009, McGahee has been a career 3.9 ypc rusher for SEVEN seasons. In his 8th season, he's putting up 3.75 ypc through 4 games. Suddenly, he's up to 4.53 ypc for 10 weeks. So yeah, I feel pretty good that Tebow's presence had something to do with that. Do you really think otherwise or are you just being stubborn and argumentative?

 

[mphtrilogy]

1050 yards

8 tds

25 rec

180 yards

 

[butcher boy]

So you're using a sample size of a 4 game stretch where they went 1-3 including 3 road games as undisputed proof that Tebow is the reason for McGahee's success in Denver? That's a real leap bro.

As opposed to just making $H!^ up like you, I'd say a small sample size is the better way to go... but let's look at it one more time:Save for a week 17 game in 2009, McGahee has been a career 3.9 ypc rusher for SEVEN seasons. In his 8th season, he's putting up 3.75 ypc through 4 games. Suddenly, he's up to 4.53 ypc for 10 weeks. So yeah, I feel pretty good that Tebow's presence had something to do with that. Do you really think otherwise or are you just being stubborn and argumentative?

You're the one insisting you're right while providing flimsy proof. I think the only thing we can conclude from this derail is that Denver is a good place to run the football whether you're a QB or RB. This thread isn't about Willis McGahee though so I'm just going to leave it as saying that I'm probably not going to be drafting Greene at his current ADP. If he actually proves he can actually take advantage of a good situation and not be mediocre, I'll gladly eat crow.

 

[FF Ninja]

You're the one insisting you're right while providing flimsy proof. I think the only thing we can conclude from this derail is that Denver is a good place to run the football whether you're a QB or RB. This thread isn't about Willis McGahee though so I'm just going to leave it as saying that I'm probably not going to be drafting Greene at his current ADP. If he actually proves he can actually take advantage of a good situation and not be mediocre, I'll gladly eat crow.

Really? You are just saying things like "Tebow kills RB value" without backing it up with ANYTHING. I show proof that this is the only prolonged period in McGahee's career that he's averaged above 4.1 ypc and you call it flimsy? I mean, we're talking about a 10 game stretch during the back half of the season for an 8-year (9-year if you count his rookie year where he didn't play) veteran playing on a leg that perviously endured one of the worst knee injuries seen on public television.If you call that flimsy evidence then I don't know what you call hard evidence. Either way, it is better than baseless conjecture which is all you've offered.And I don't think we've concluded that Denver is a good place to run the football. Denver WAS a good place to run the football while Tebow was the QB. Having Peyton should help, but I hardly see how we can conclude this from the discussion so far. It certainly wasn't a good place to run the ball in 2010 when the average was 3.6 ypc.

 

[matuski]

1) McGahee > Greene

2) I don't see anyway to confidently predict his numbers/value without knowing what role Tebow will play.

In summary.. on my Do Not Draft list.

 

[Phlash]

So you're using a sample size of a 4 game stretch where they went 1-3 including 3 road games as undisputed proof that Tebow is the reason for McGahee's success in Denver? That's a real leap bro.

As opposed to just making $H!^ up like you, I'd say a small sample size is the better way to go... but let's look at it one more time:Save for a week 17 game in 2009, McGahee has been a career 3.9 ypc rusher for SEVEN seasons. In his 8th season, he's putting up 3.75 ypc through 4 games. Suddenly, he's up to 4.53 ypc for 10 weeks. So yeah, I feel pretty good that Tebow's presence had something to do with that. Do you really think otherwise or are you just being stubborn and argumentative?

You're the one insisting you're right while providing flimsy proof.

Flimsy proof and small sample sizes are better than zero proof and made up guesses. McGahee was awful before Tebow, then Tebow came around and suddenly McGahee is considered good again. I wonder why.

I think the only thing we can conclude from this derail is that Denver is a good place to run the football whether you're a QB or RB.

The only information presented during this "derail" is that when Tebow became the starter, McGahee's number blew up. What you have said here is a FALSE conclusion, in fact, I have no clue why you'd say that since you've presented no evidence to support your claim. On the contrary, Denver hasn't had a RB eclipse 1000 yards since 2006, until they did it last year with Tebow as the starter!!

This thread isn't about Willis McGahee though so I'm just going to leave it as saying that I'm probably not going to be drafting Greene at his current ADP. If he actually proves he can actually take advantage of a good situation and not be mediocre, I'll gladly eat crow.

Kewl. You should realize though that Tim Tebow, historically, is likely to improve a RBs production, and that should be taken into account when deciding whether to draft Shonne Greene or not.

 

[Benchwarmers]

280 carries

1100 yards

7 TD's

35 catches

300 yards

2 TD's

Good value RB.

 

[bonesman]

FF Ninja straight assassinating the Butcher in here.

Katana > Cleaver

 

[elguapo07]

Any chance that Ganaway factors into the mix and steals some carries, perhaps at the goal line?

 

[KellysHeroes]

Loyal Jets fan here, I've seen enough of Shonn... not starter material at all. He doesn't bring much to the table and I'm sure no DC is fearing, my money is on McKnight getting a lot more playing time than expected by mid-season.

 

[gandalas]

The entire team only rushed for 8 and 9 TDs the last two years in a confusing trend away from the ground game despite Sanchez's struggles.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

Seeing as how you made a completely incorrect statement in the VERY first post of the thread, I would not be giving others any more advice about posting fallacies. 2010: New York Jets Rushed for 14 TDs, Tied for 9th best in the league.

2011: New York Jets Rushed for 14 TDs, Tied for 12th best in the league.

Not sure in what universe 14 = 8 AND 9, but it is certainly not this one.

 

[Sweet Love]

Loyal Jets fan here, I've seen enough of Shonn... not starter material at all. He doesn't bring much to the table and I'm sure no DC is fearing, my money is on McKnight getting a lot more playing time than expected by mid-season.

I agree with you, but also think there are going to be bigger rushing numbers in general, plus they have to replace LT's rushes (which will likely go to McKnight). I think they can support a 1100 yards rusher and a 600 yard rusher in Greene and McKnight. I don't think it is about being good, it is more about the opportunity, and right now, Greene seems to have that opportunity that few other RBs have in the league.

 

[Spanky24]

FF Ninja straight assassinating the Butcher in here.

No doubt! Entertaining to say the least.

 

[FF Ninja]

The entire team only rushed for 8 and 9 TDs the last two years in a confusing trend away from the ground game despite Sanchez's struggles.

Dude, you are having a bad day. You just need to go home and sleep it off. You haven't said anything right in this thread yet. First you said Tebow hurts RBs which was proven wrong. Second you say McGahee was a better RB than Greene? Before playing with Tebow, McGahee had averaged over 4.1 ypc once in seven years. At best, Greene (4.3 ypc) and McGahee (4.1 ypc) are similar, although I think most would give the edge to 2012 Greene (4th season) vs. 2011 McGahee (8th season).

Seeing as how you made a completely incorrect statement in the VERY first post of the thread, I would not be giving others any more advice about posting fallacies. 2010: New York Jets Rushed for 14 TDs, Tied for 9th best in the league.

2011: New York Jets Rushed for 14 TDs, Tied for 12th best in the league.

Not sure in what universe 14 = 8 AND 9, but it is certainly not this one.

I was talking about the running backs, genius. I guess I'll clarify next time by saying "the entire team of running backs" but that seemed redundant since we were talking about the RBs.totals by position for last 3 years