Shonn Greene vs. Ryan Mathews (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

The hype for Greene was crazy a month or so ago but has died down some. Mathews has now become the torch bearer on the hype express and has now based Greene in staff rankings and ADP.

Here is the tale of the tape from last year:

NYJ RBs:

534 carries, 2385 rushing yards, 4.47 ypc, 16 rushing TD

36 receptions, 286 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD

SD RBs:

385 carries, 1360 rushing yards, 3.53 ypc, 16 rushing TD

97 receptions, 932 receiving yards, 7 receiving TD

NYJ QBs:

389 passing attempts, 2569 passing yards, 12 passing TD, 20 INT

SD QBs:

517 passing attempts, 4485 passing yards, 29 passing TD, 10 INT

Net result:

Jets had 149 more rushing attempts, almost a yard advantage on ypc, 1025 more rushing yards, and 128 fewer passing attempts. Clearly the Chargers backs did more receiving wise, but their primary RB receiving threat was Sproles and he's still there.

Who will end up with more fantasy points scored this year (0 ppr), Greene or Mathews? Both are ranked and getting draft very close to each other . . .

 

[Ghost Rider]

Mathews, without a doubt in my mind. He is on a better team with a better offense and a much easier schedule. The Jets are the better running team and have a better line, but I still say Mathews.

 

[cubbie5150]

Mathews, without a doubt in my mind. He is on a better team with a better offense and a much easier schedule. The Jets are the better running team and have a better line, but I still say Mathews.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Mathews, without a doubt in my mind. He is on a better team with a better offense and a much easier schedule. The Jets are the better running team and have a better line, but I still say Mathews.

I agree, especially in PPR. For some reason, I REALLY don't like Greene this year.

 

[Timmay]

The sexy pick here is Matthews, but i have to go with Greene. The Jets are one of the best running teams in the league, and want to run. The Chargers have a prolific offense with a good QB.

 

[Todem]

Greene = bust of the year based on ADP.

 

[cjack]

This comparison seems to ignore the presence of Tomlinson. You included Sproles as a reason Matthews won't see all those receptions, it's only fair to suggest Greene won't see all those yards and TDs with Tomlinson present. Greene's much more likley to split a large percentage of those rushing carries with Tomlinson, than Matthews will with Sproles or Torbert.

I guess your position may be that Tomlinson won't be that much of a factor, although that's my primary concern with Greene.

I'd pick Matthews.

 

[David Yudkin]

Greene = bust of the year based on ADP.

Funny you brought this up . . .In 2008, few people had much faith in the Jets and Thomas Jones had an ADP of 22, yet ended the year ranked 5th.In 2009, few people had much faith in the Jets and Thomas Jones had an ADP of 23, yet ended the year ranked 6th.In 2008, everyone still loved LT, and his ADP was 1 but ended up ranked 7th.In 2009, everyone expected a bounce back year from LT, and his ADP was 5 but he ended up ranked 19th.IMO, Greene is better than Jones. Mathews as a rookie shouldn't be compared to LT in his prime (but he's likely better than the LT that took the field last year).In both years, the Jets lead RB ranked higher than the Chargers lead RB.

 

[David Yudkin]

This comparison seems to ignore the presence of Tomlinson. You included Sproles as a reason Matthews won't see all those receptions, it's only fair to suggest Greene won't see all those yards and TDs with Tomlinson present. Greene's much more likley to split a large percentage of those rushing carries with Tomlinson, than Matthews will with Sproles or Torbert.I guess your position may be that Tomlinson won't be that much of a factor, although that's my primary concern with Greene. I'd pick Matthews.

In recent years, there's been way more carries to go around in NY than in SD. I realize each year is different, but 60% of the RB carries in NY (535 RB carries) would still net Greene 320 carries. In SD, give Mathews 75% of the RB carries (using last year's totals) and he'd have 288 carries.

 

[latrops]

A few weeks ago, I didn't expect much from Tomlinson. Now, I'm having to rethink that. He looks pretty good this preseason. Matthews will get the goalline work and will catch the ball. Greene probably won't get many catches and could split goalline carries (or lose the majority to a healthy, fresh LT).

 

[Marauder]

This comparison seems to ignore the presence of Tomlinson. You included Sproles as a reason Matthews won't see all those receptions, it's only fair to suggest Greene won't see all those yards and TDs with Tomlinson present. Greene's much more likley to split a large percentage of those rushing carries with Tomlinson, than Matthews will with Sproles or Torbert.I guess your position may be that Tomlinson won't be that much of a factor, although that's my primary concern with Greene. I'd pick Matthews.

In recent years, there's been way more carries to go around in NY than in SD. I realize each year is different, but 60% of the RB carries in NY (535 RB carries) would still net Greene 320 carries. In SD, give Mathews 75% of the RB carries (using last year's totals) and he'd have 288 carries.

I think it's a mistake to just look at last years rushing totals for SD. Better to look at Norv Turners history. I think they turned into a passing team more out of necessity than choice because they weren't getting any production from their RB's. The fact that they traded way up in the first round to get Matthews suggests to me that Norv wants to run the ball more. Of course this is all speculation but that's the way I see it.

 

[billyjohnson]

This comparison seems to ignore the presence of Tomlinson. You included Sproles as a reason Matthews won't see all those receptions, it's only fair to suggest Greene won't see all those yards and TDs with Tomlinson present. Greene's much more likley to split a large percentage of those rushing carries with Tomlinson, than Matthews will with Sproles or Torbert.I guess your position may be that Tomlinson won't be that much of a factor, although that's my primary concern with Greene. I'd pick Matthews.

In recent years, there's been way more carries to go around in NY than in SD. I realize each year is different, but 60% of the RB carries in NY (535 RB carries) would still net Greene 320 carries. In SD, give Mathews 75% of the RB carries (using last year's totals) and he'd have 288 carries.

 

[Todem]

Greene = bust of the year based on ADP.

Funny you brought this up . . .In 2008, few people had much faith in the Jets and Thomas Jones had an ADP of 22, yet ended the year ranked 5th.

In 2009, few people had much faith in the Jets and Thomas Jones had an ADP of 23, yet ended the year ranked 6th.

In 2008, everyone still loved LT, and his ADP was 1 but ended up ranked 7th.

In 2009, everyone expected a bounce back year from LT, and his ADP was 5 but he ended up ranked 19th.

IMO, Greene is better than Jones. Mathews as a rookie shouldn't be compared to LT in his prime (but he's likely better than the LT that took the field last year).

In both years, the Jets lead RB ranked higher than the Chargers lead RB.

Thre is where you and I differ. I loved Thomas Jones the last 2 years. And last year he was strong and then his age finally got the best of him. He was worn down big time. Enter a fresh legged rookie playing against battle worn teams in the post season. Greene looked like he just started his season while 95% of the players on the field had logged far more wear and tear on their bodies. I don't Greene does anything too special. Yes his opportunity looks like a dream behind that line. But LT will take significant PT away from him. he will be in on all 3rd downs, red zone, and crunch time.

His LT old? Yes. But I am on the wagon that he gives a swan song season (ala Curtis Martin style) and shows his doubters he still has ALL-Pro skills left in the tank. I don't use Pre-Season for much, but LT looked quicker than I had seen him in the last 2 seasons. If LT can stay healthy (he had a nasty turned ankle week one last year) behind that line he will get nice chunks of yardage as well as be a safety valve for Dirty Sanchez.

Greene has bust written all over him.

 

[cjack]

This comparison seems to ignore the presence of Tomlinson. You included Sproles as a reason Matthews won't see all those receptions, it's only fair to suggest Greene won't see all those yards and TDs with Tomlinson present. Greene's much more likley to split a large percentage of those rushing carries with Tomlinson, than Matthews will with Sproles or Torbert.I guess your position may be that Tomlinson won't be that much of a factor, although that's my primary concern with Greene. I'd pick Matthews.

In recent years, there's been way more carries to go around in NY than in SD. I realize each year is different, but 60% of the RB carries in NY (535 RB carries) would still net Greene 320 carries. In SD, give Mathews 75% of the RB carries (using last year's totals) and he'd have 288 carries.

I'd guess the difference in carries between Matthews and Greene will be neglible. It will come down to three things, who gets more goal line work, who gets more receptions, and who has a higher average per carry. I'm betting that Matthews will work at least two of those factors in his favor.

 

[abe froman]

The hype for Greene was crazy a month or so ago but has died down some. Mathews has now become the torch bearer on the hype express and has now based Greene in staff rankings and ADP.

Here is the tale of the tape from last year:

NYJ RBs:

534 carries, 2385 rushing yards, 4.47 ypc, 16 rushing TD

36 receptions, 286 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD

SD RBs:

385 carries, 1360 rushing yards, 3.53 ypc, 16 rushing TD

97 receptions, 932 receiving yards, 7 receiving TD

NYJ QBs:

389 passing attempts, 2569 passing yards, 12 passing TD, 20 INT

SD QBs:

517 passing attempts, 4485 passing yards, 29 passing TD, 10 INT

Net result:

Jets had 149 more rushing attempts, almost a yard advantage on ypc, 1025 more rushing yards, and 128 fewer passing attempts. Clearly the Chargers backs did more receiving wise, but their primary RB receiving threat was Sproles and he's still there.

Who will end up with more fantasy points scored this year (0 ppr), Greene or Mathews? Both are ranked and getting draft very close to each other . . .

My vote is Mathews but I wouldnt read as much into 09's rec #s for NYJ as a healthy Leon Washington would have affected those figures.

 

[Routilla]

I think they both score 10+TDs and run for over a grand, how much more than a grand is the question and I could see either one doing better than the other. Solid RBs no matter what.

 

[David Yudkin]

This comparison seems to ignore the presence of Tomlinson. You included Sproles as a reason Matthews won't see all those receptions, it's only fair to suggest Greene won't see all those yards and TDs with Tomlinson present. Greene's much more likley to split a large percentage of those rushing carries with Tomlinson, than Matthews will with Sproles or Torbert.I guess your position may be that Tomlinson won't be that much of a factor, although that's my primary concern with Greene. I'd pick Matthews.

In recent years, there's been way more carries to go around in NY than in SD. I realize each year is different, but 60% of the RB carries in NY (535 RB carries) would still net Greene 320 carries. In SD, give Mathews 75% of the RB carries (using last year's totals) and he'd have 288 carries.

I think it's a mistake to just look at last years rushing totals for SD. Better to look at Norv Turners history. I think they turned into a passing team more out of necessity than choice because they weren't getting any production from their RB's. The fact that they traded way up in the first round to get Matthews suggests to me that Norv wants to run the ball more. Of course this is all speculation but that's the way I see it.

I realize there have been many threads on the Chargers running game, but the fact of the matter was last year the Chargers stank at running the football and it wasn't just LT. No one else did anything either (and those guys accounted for nearly half the team's carries). Yes, Mathews has more to offer than LT did, but other than that what changed? McNeil and Jackson holding out certainly won't help the offense. All teams would like to run more . . . if their running game is effective. The trend has been a migration away from the run in SD. Certainly they run more than last year (and hopefully for them better), but they are still light years away from running as much as the Jets. As for Greene, give LT 10 carries a game and all the RB receptions if you want to. Greene could easily still get 300 carries (if he can stay healthy). Where I disagree is people matter of factly giving LT all the goal line carries, as IMO that has not been decided. In recent years, Tomlinson has been below average at getting the ball into the end zone at the goal line. I am not so sure he will trot on the field every time the ball gets inside the 5 yard line.

 

[Todem]

This comparison seems to ignore the presence of Tomlinson. You included Sproles as a reason Matthews won't see all those receptions, it's only fair to suggest Greene won't see all those yards and TDs with Tomlinson present. Greene's much more likley to split a large percentage of those rushing carries with Tomlinson, than Matthews will with Sproles or Torbert.

I guess your position may be that Tomlinson won't be that much of a factor, although that's my primary concern with Greene.

I'd pick Matthews.

In recent years, there's been way more carries to go around in NY than in SD. I realize each year is different, but 60% of the RB carries in NY (535 RB carries) would still net Greene 320 carries. In SD, give Mathews 75% of the RB carries (using last year's totals) and he'd have 288 carries.

I think it's a mistake to just look at last years rushing totals for SD. Better to look at Norv Turners history. I think they turned into a passing team more out of necessity than choice because they weren't getting any production from their RB's. The fact that they traded way up in the first round to get Matthews suggests to me that Norv wants to run the ball more. Of course this is all speculation but that's the way I see it.

I realize there have been many threads on the Chargers running game, but the fact of the matter was last year the Chargers stank at running the football and it wasn't just LT. No one else did anything either (and those guys accounted for nearly half the team's carries). Yes, Mathews has more to offer than LT did, but other than that what changed? McNeil and Jackson holding out certainly won't help the offense. All teams would like to run more . . . if their running game is effective. The trend has been a migration away from the run in SD. Certainly they run more than last year (and hopefully for them better), but they are still light years away from running as much as the Jets. As for Greene, give LT 10 carries a game and all the RB receptions if you want to. Greene could easily still get 300 carries (if he can stay healthy). Where I disagree is people matter of factly giving LT all the goal line carries, as IMO that has not been decided. In recent years, Tomlinson has been below average at getting the ball into the end zone at the goal line. I am not so sure he will trot on the field every time the ball gets inside the 5 yard line.

I am not convinced he can. I sense he is soft.

Just my gut talking in watching him play last year.

Take it the way you want.

 

[VT700GUY]

Not a lot of Greene lovers in here. I drafted Greene but I'm wondering if I made a mistake.

 

[Judge Smails]

Greene = bust of the year based on ADP.

Funny you brought this up . . .In 2008, few people had much faith in the Jets and Thomas Jones had an ADP of 22, yet ended the year ranked 5th.

In 2009, few people had much faith in the Jets and Thomas Jones had an ADP of 23, yet ended the year ranked 6th.

In 2008, everyone still loved LT, and his ADP was 1 but ended up ranked 7th.

In 2009, everyone expected a bounce back year from LT, and his ADP was 5 but he ended up ranked 19th.

IMO, Greene is better than Jones. Mathews as a rookie shouldn't be compared to LT in his prime (but he's likely better than the LT that took the field last year).

In both years, the Jets lead RB ranked higher than the Chargers lead RB.

Thre is where you and I differ. I loved Thomas Jones the last 2 years. And last year he was strong and then his age finally got the best of him. He was worn down big time. Enter a fresh legged rookie playing against battle worn teams in the post season. Greene looked like he just started his season while 95% of the players on the field had logged far more wear and tear on their bodies. I don't Greene does anything too special. Yes his opportunity looks like a dream behind that line. But LT will take significant PT away from him. he will be in on all 3rd downs, red zone, and crunch time.His LT old? Yes. But I am on the wagon that he gives a swan song season (ala Curtis Martin style) and shows his doubters he still has ALL-Pro skills left in the tank. I don't use Pre-Season for much, but LT looked quicker than I had seen him in the last 2 seasons. If LT can stay healthy (he had a nasty turned ankle week one last year) behind that line he will get nice chunks of yardage as well as be a safety valve for Dirty Sanchez.

Greene has bust written all over him.

I agree with this. I was set to draft Matthews at 1.11 after seeing the first few preseason games and then the first quarter of his last game. But then the Chargers line started looking like - the Chargers line. He got stopped at the line of scrimmage, behind the line, etc. Plays that were succeeding were sweeps where he got outside and turned the corner, or draws. Also bounced off tackles quite a bit. I do like that he falls forward every play, but not convinced that the off tackle holes will be there. O-line means everything. Therefore I'm more bullish on the Jet running game than on SD's. Based on ADP, like Tomlinson a lot. He looks renewed, quick and I have not doubt if healthy will be a force. Don't see how Greene will keep him off the field.

 

[abe froman]

I think they both score 10+TDs and run for over a grand, how much more than a grand is the question and I could see either one doing better than the other. Solid RBs no matter what.

is the fact that both teams have their WR1's out for a significant time going to affect 1 or both of these RB's early on in season? **(feel free to debate Santonio as Jets #1 on a new w.o.)

 

[nysportsfan]

Greene is my pick for 0PPR.

Mathews is my pick for PPR.

 

[thehornet]

greene easily

 

[Multiple Scores]

I am looking forward to the continued demise of tomlinson. Lots of crow will be served. His legs are shot and I really don't think stupid preseason tells is much at all. You have been warned, feel free to stand on the beach with a cat5 hurricane racing at you, I screamed RUN but if you think it will kiss you then so be it.

 

[Phil McRevis]

Phil thinks offensive lines have more to do with a rb's production than anything else. And Phil thinks it's obvious that NYJ's o-line >>>>> SD's o-line.

Throw in the fact that Ryan clearly loves to run the ball even more than Turner and Phil doesn't understand how Greene isn't getting more love.

 

[Todem]

Thre is where you and I differ. I loved Thomas Jones the last 2 years. And last year he was strong and then his age finally got the best of him. He was worn down big time. Enter a fresh legged rookie playing against battle worn teams in the post season. Greene looked like he just started his season while 95% of the players on the field had logged far more wear and tear on their bodies. I don't Greene does anything too special. Yes his opportunity looks like a dream behind that line. But LT will take significant PT away from him. he will be in on all 3rd downs, red zone, and crunch time.

His LT old? Yes. But I am on the wagon that he gives a swan song season (ala Curtis Martin style) and shows his doubters he still has ALL-Pro skills left in the tank. I don't use Pre-Season for much, but LT looked quicker than I had seen him in the last 2 seasons. If LT can stay healthy (he had a nasty turned ankle week one last year) behind that line he will get nice chunks of yardage as well as be a safety valve for Dirty Sanchez.

Greene has bust written all over him.

This fresh legged thing comes up way too often. Sure, there are some injuries throughout the season, but people act like players have played 14 games in a 14 day span at the end of the season. If fatigue was really affecting the players that adversely then the coaches would rest them during the week. These guys may show up on Sunday with a sore ankle or knee but they aren't huffing and puffing for breath like they just ran a marathon. So the fresh legged argument is just awful, IMO.And since I'm replying to this post I'll hit up the LT part, too. Curtis Martin never had a steep drop off in production. His age 30 numbers were actually on par with his career averages. People think he had a steep drop off because he didn't get goal line carries that year. At age 31 he set his career high for carries and ypc. There is no chance that this occurs for LT.

I haven't voted on the actual poll yet. I really have a hard time deciding between these two. And speaking of hype trains, sadly, I feel if Best was mentioned in this poll, he'd win it. Ridiculous hype train going there. Matthews and Greene are both in very good situations for running backs. One has a great line with a great D and the other has a great offense and a coach dedicated to his RB1.

I disagree with you. I am not saying they are huffing and puffing. But their bodies are worn down and a fresh legged physical runner can do some serious damage to a battle worn defensive unit over the course of 60 minutes. Greene looked like the fastest and freshest player on the field in the post season. He is a big kid and is a physical runner who deals out as he runs. He does finish his runs real well. Guys are beat up big time by the post season and it comes down to conditioning in the post season. You train hard in the offseason in anticipation of a season, but more importantly you want to be able to recover and play longer if your in the post season. I don't understand how you can think the fresh legs RB argument is awful when almost every team in the NFL is now going to a 2 back system. Take a look at Cedric Benson last year. That was the first time who carries the load in his career. He broke down. Thomas Jones broke down. I can assure you if Greene had logged 350 carries last season he would not have looked as good as he did in the post season last year. Now I know players are never 100%....heck they are hurt every week with sprains, strains, bone bruises etc. The guys that can endure that is what seperates the best from the johnny come latelys. I think Greene was a huge benefactor of not getting much work at all during the grind of the regular season and it paid off for the Jets. Heck who knows what would have happened if he did not go down with some bruised ribs in the AFC title game. maybe they would have been able to control the clock more and keep momentum. Because Thomas Jones looked horrid in the post season. The game has changed a lot. It is so much more violent now and players are so much bigger and stronger (and faster). The collisions are insane. You need 2 good backs to go far in the post season these days.

Check back at years end and let's see how well Greene does if he indeed gets the work like those who are bullish on him think he will and what he does over the last quarter of the regular season and if the Jets get in the post season.

I don't Greene has "it" in him to endure a full 16 weeks of NFL contact without breaking down.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Greene is SUPER overated. In ppr I think guys like Matthews, Best, Spiller, Forte, Foster, (Wells although close here) are going to ouscore Greene by a good amount.

Just my opinion but I have avoided Greene like the plague this year and have sold him in leagues I drafted him in last year. I think he will be decent but nowhere near the the value some have him.

 

[billyjohnson]

Greene and the Jet's o-line seem like the correct answer here

 

[shader]

People are really missing the boat on Greene here. The Jets have a great O-Line and he's going to put up bigtime numbers.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

And Phil thinks it's obvious that NYJ's o-line >>>>> SD's o-line.

I find it somewhat shocking that Matthews is running away with this given how true your O-line comparison is. And that's with Marcus McNeill who is still holding out. I'm a Matthews owner in multiple dynasties, but I think I see a 3.6 average in his immediate future behind the Chargers 2010 line.

 

[Scooter71]

Phil thinks offensive lines have more to do with a rb's production than anything else. And Phil thinks it's obvious that NYJ's o-line >>>>> SD's o-line.Throw in the fact that Ryan clearly loves to run the ball even more than Turner and Phil doesn't understand how Greene isn't getting more love.

Why is Phil talking about himself in the 3rd person? Out of body experience? Getting back to the point, don't discount the fact that defenses have to worry about Rivers hurting them -- not so much the case with Sanchez. Definitely advantage Mathews in that regard.

 

[latrops]

I am looking forward to the continued demise of tomlinson. Lots of crow will be served. His legs are shot and I really don't think stupid preseason tells is much at all. You have been warned, feel free to stand on the beach with a cat5 hurricane racing at you, I screamed RUN but if you think it will kiss you then so be it.

Cat 5 hurricane? He is being drafted as a rb 3. If he doesn't pan out, big deal.

 

[NYRAGE]

I think they both score 10+TDs and run for over a grand, how much more than a grand is the question and I could see either one doing better than the other. Solid RBs no matter what.

is the fact that both teams have their WR1's out for a significant time going to affect 1 or both of these RB's early on in season? **(feel free to debate Santonio as Jets #1 on a new w.o.)

The Jets didn't have Holmes last year, so no impact. They are very likely keeping 4 TEs and Rex has stated over and over again that the Jets identity is ground and pound. He's going to get a ton of carries even if LT poaches quite a few of them. My biggest concern is can SG stay healthy.

 

[Phil McRevis]

And Phil thinks it's obvious that NYJ's o-line >>>>> SD's o-line.

I find it somewhat shocking that Matthews is running away with this given how true your O-line comparison is. And that's with Marcus McNeill who is still holding out. I'm a Matthews owner in multiple dynasties, but I think I see a 3.6 average in his immediate future behind the Chargers 2010 line.

Phil doesn't Matthews is lacking talent. But talent only takes you so far. Situations play a bigger role than people care to admit. Let's look at Greene: His HC runs the ball. A lot. He plays behind one of the best o-lines in football. He's the starter. Phil doesn't understand why so many people are avoiding this kool-aid.

 

[LittlePhatty]

My latest cheat sheet for .5 PPR has them at:

RB #10 - Mathews

RB #16 - Greene

For that scoring system I'd say that's about right for Greene, and Matthews is just a bit too high.

My gut says they will both finish in the RB #14 range.

And since I'm projecting about the same number of FF points, Greene wins. His ADP is lower and his team's O-Line will give him a better chance to perform above where I have him ranked.