Should I Offer This Big Trade? (1 Viewer)

[eighsse2]

I'm simply going to pose this as a "current roster vs post-trade roster". We are a 12-team, 20-man, PPR dynasty league with QRRWWFKD lineup. 6pt all TD's and 5pt bonuses for high yardage, yada yada. But passing yards are only 1/50.

(A) CURRENT (if I had to do my cuts today)
QB: Hurts
RB: Bijan, Gibbs
WR: Lamb, AJ Brown
FX: Etienne

Bench: Higgins, Smith-Njigba, Swift, Godwin
Deep bench: Jameson Williams, Dotson, Bryce Young, Abanikanda
PIcks: #11, #16, #20, #24


(B) AFTER TRADE:
QB: Burrow (6pt TD's)
RB: Bijan, Hall
WR: Lamb, AJ Brown
FX: Gibbs

Bench: Nacua, Etienne, Godwin
Deep bench: Dotson, Bryce Young, Abanikanda, Bateman, Sean Tucker
Picks: #16, #20, #24, #26

Hope this format doesn't make it more confusing than necessary. I feel like it's a good way to throw it out there. Just imagine you've been offered to join a dynasty league and you can choose Roster A or Roster B, which do you take?

All thoughts appreciated.

 

[Gally]

I like the depth of Team A better but like the starting lineup of Team B better. It really boils down to how close you have Burrow and Hurts. Both have some significant risks moving forward.

 

[eighsse2]

I like the depth of Team A better but like the starting lineup of Team B better. It really boils down to how close you have Burrow and Hurts. Both have some significant risks moving forward.

Yeah, that makes sense because this is an attempt to stack up some depth for stronger lineup and stronger top-end bench, and QB swap to make it more palatable for the other guy. Still probably not enough to make it happen.

Thanks, Gally. Always like to bounce these things off some heads before I throw a big one out there.

 

[Big Nate]

Long post incoming:

Initial thoughts is Hurts over Burrow due to rushing being greater than passing yards. Only 1 pt per 50 yards passing is significant even if passing TDs are worth 6. I obviously haven't crushed the numbers but the passing yard points is big. 300 yards passing is only 6pts instead of the normal 12. Rushing yards at 1 pt per 10 yards is huge. 60 yards rushing for a QB = 300yards passing. Plus you still get all the rushing TDs from Hurts. He's only 25 and his rushing won't be going down anytime soon. With only starting 6 you need the best QB possible and I think Hurts >> Burrow.

Ok now, lets look at the settings. Only start 6 (QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/F) is very very small for dynasty. I can't stress this enough - you need massive studs to win this league. I think your starting roster is solid (both teams) but deep depth really means nothing in this league. You need a couple studs to fill in for injuries/byes but guys like Abanikanda, Sean Tucker literally do nothing for you. Late 2nd round picks also aren't as valueable as it is difficult to keep prospects around with short benches/rosters.

Moreover, (trying to get more studs) the #11 pick overall is worth something due to the depth of this class. Maybe a good WR prospect falls or a guy like Jayden Daniels falls and you can hopefully hit on another rushing QB. I'd be curious where Caleb goes. Lots can still change with the combine and draft but you might snag a gem at 11. The other thing I would be trying to do is package up #11, #16 and maybe Higgins or JSN and Swift and Godwin to move up to the top of the first round. Not sure if that is possible but I'd take some of the picks 11, 16, 24 along with Swift, Godwin, Higgins or JSN to see if you can snag one of the top studs in the draft. Caleb or Daniels if they fall in 1 QB league could be a game changer later on. you might only need to pay a little to move up from 11 a couple spots depending where you think Caleb might go. Its early and rankings will change but I'm willing to move up to get a difference maker like a rushing QB if they hit. Caleb might go mid round and Daniels right now being mocked around 11.

About acquiring Hall (and Puka) - I think Hall is a fantastic RB and will have a big year or two coming up. I'm just not sure it balances out the downgrade from Hurts to Burrow with these settings. Getting Puka is a very nice young addition too. In B getting Hall and Puka is very good but does it offset the scoring loss from Hurts? Both rosters are good but I need time to get feedback on the QB scoring here.

Another thought is can you offload Swift, Higgins the #11 to get Hall and/or Puka and not give up Hurts?

Last comment - with this set up I'm 100% willing to overpay to get studs like Hall and Puka and throwing in a guy like Godwin, Swift etc that won't ever really start and might have long term question marks is worth it. Sorry for the long post but I really like thinking about these things and working through it as it helps give me some insight on my own potential trades.

 

[eighsse2]

Sorry for the long post

No, man, I love it. Valuable thought-out insight is always appreciated. Thank you.

The only wrench thrown in the "low scoring for passing" argument is the 5pt bonus applies to pass/rush/rec at 300/150/150, respectively. So, if you don't hit 300, yes, you're getting trash for the yardage, but if you hit 300, you're at 11. It's almost like the oassing yards scoring is "Did you get 300 pass yards? If yes, good! If no, bad." 500 isn't much better than 300, and 50 isn't much worse than 299.

I agree about overpaying to get studs in this league. I got Gibbs along with what looked like a high 1st, 2nd , and 3rd (but turned out to be #8, #20, #32) by stacking Garrett Wilson, Spears, Kendre, Roschon, and Quentin Johnston midway through the season last year. Turned that #8 into #11, #16, and Higgins, back when the #8 still looked like it had a chance to be a very high pick. That move saved me.

But anyway ... Yeah I could throw something out there first like Swift+Higgins+#11 for Puka. But I'd say 0% he would give Hall for that package. We're all pretty crazy about top RB's. The scarcity plus the fact that they make up 40% minimum of your skill position players, I think, makes them pretty critical in our format.

 

[Big Nate]

Ah yes, I missed that 5pts for 300+ so when Burrow hits 300 it basically makes up for it but if not then its a rough outing if he doesn't throw 3 TDs. Hurts must have been a beast last year when he was on for you. I need to think about this some more. I could possibly make a case for either side but what are your thoughts on the scoring potential of both QBs in 24 assuming both healthy?

 

[eighsse2]

Ah yes, I missed that 5pts for 300+ so when Burrow hits 300 it basically makes up for it but if not then its a rough outing if he doesn't throw 3 TDs. Hurts must have been a beast last year when he was on for you. I need to think about this some more. I could possibly make a case for either side but what are your thoughts on the scoring potential of both QBs in 24 assuming both healthy?

It's a tough call, really, but I'd lean Hurts. In 2022, Hurts missed 2 games, Burrow missed only the cancelled Buffalo game, and Burrow trailed Hurts by 5 points on the season.

Those 1-yd rushing TD's are quite a nice perk.

 

[eighsse2]

The more I think, the more I learn toward not messing around with putting Hurts on the table.