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Sigmund Bloom's 2nd Opinion Projections (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
So many tough decisions to make this week, which for most of those of us still alive in our leagues, means getting into the finals. And that means either 1st or 2nd place money.

I always read the Dodds projections on Tuesday, and then the Bloom projections on Wednesday, and then the Dodds projections on Thursday, and I never know which numbers are the best to consider. I have three questions for anyone who knows:

1. What are the differences between how these projections are calculated?

2. Over time (especially this season) which set of projections have been proven to be more accurate? And is this true in general, or is one guy more accurate with regard to RBs, and the other guy is better at WRs, etc.?

3. Which do you prefer, and why?

 
Bloom likes to take a few risks here and there while Dodds seems to be a bit more conservative. I look at them both and if they are apart will go with my gut feeling. I tend to lean a little more Bloom, but that is my personal opinion.

 
I don't know, I tend to lean toward Dodds in a pinch.

However, I hope Bloom is right this week. I have to roll with Malcomb Floyd or Vincent Jackson and he has Floyd ranked No. 7 at WR where Dodds has him like 34.

Dodds has Bess around 7 and Bloom has him way down the list, meaning in the 30's.

Bloom, if you read this, where do you have Vincent Jackson ranked, I didn't see it. Also, what are your thoughts if Floyd can't go on Vincent Jackson. With no Gates or Jackson, you would think Vincent Jackson should be at least startable.

 
Probably, I tend to lean more on Bloom, but I am a Bloom fanboy.

If I give it more thought, when it gets right down to it, I'm just looking for affirmation in who I already really want to start.

 
yesitsme said:
I don't know, I tend to lean toward Dodds in a pinch.However, I hope Bloom is right this week. I have to roll with Malcomb Floyd or Vincent Jackson and he has Floyd ranked No. 7 at WR where Dodds has him like 34.Dodds has Bess around 7 and Bloom has him way down the list, meaning in the 30's.Bloom, if you read this, where do you have Vincent Jackson ranked, I didn't see it. Also, what are your thoughts if Floyd can't go on Vincent Jackson. With no Gates or Jackson, you would think Vincent Jackson should be at least startable.
Click to expand...
They are ranked exactly the same. I just emailed Bloom because I thought it was a mistake. It just didn't look right. He replied that he sees them both equal but will probably upgrade Jackson just a little bit with his next projection. I really appreciated his quick response.
 
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Tampa Buc said:
yesitsme said:
I don't know, I tend to lean toward Dodds in a pinch.However, I hope Bloom is right this week. I have to roll with Malcomb Floyd or Vincent Jackson and he has Floyd ranked No. 7 at WR where Dodds has him like 34.Dodds has Bess around 7 and Bloom has him way down the list, meaning in the 30's.Bloom, if you read this, where do you have Vincent Jackson ranked, I didn't see it. Also, what are your thoughts if Floyd can't go on Vincent Jackson. With no Gates or Jackson, you would think Vincent Jackson should be at least startable.
Click to expand...
They are ranked exactly the same. I just emailed Bloom because I thought it was a mistake. It just didn't look right. He replied that he sees them both equal but will probably upgrade Jackson just a little bit with his next projection. I really appreciated his quick response.
Click to expand...
I don't know how i missed it. He has Jackson 5 and Floyd 6, I don't know if I buy that, both in the top 6.
 
Interesting that Dodds is #1 in Kicker rankings. Curious how Hermann would rank here (I usually look to his kicker rankings more actually).

-QG

 
My guess is that people tend to lean towards whichever prognosticator more closely agrees with the reader's gut.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Interesting that Dodds is #1 in Kicker rankings. Curious how Hermann would rank here (I usually look to his kicker rankings more actually).-QG
Click to expand...
After I read that, I picked up Lawrence Tynes on waivers this week. I've been using Neil Rackers all year, who's been OK. But Dodds has Tynes #1 this week- I don't know what's special about him this week, but every little bit helps, so what the heck? I sure hope he's right!ETA- Herman has Rackers #2, while Tynes is way down the list at #13. Who knows?
 
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timschochet said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Interesting that Dodds is #1 in Kicker rankings. Curious how Hermann would rank here (I usually look to his kicker rankings more actually).-QG
Click to expand...
After I read that, I picked up Lawrence Tynes on waivers this week. I've been using Neil Rackers all year, who's been OK. But Dodds has Tynes #1 this week- I don't know what's special about him this week, but every little bit helps, so what the heck? I sure hope he's right!ETA- Herman has Rackers #2, while Tynes is way down the list at #13. Who knows?
Click to expand...
Actually the closest thing to my strategy usually is what team gives up the most field goals/field goal attempts. A super surprising team is last in terms of field goal attempts allowed this year (14) while the team that's allowed the most is probably less of a surprise, but the difference is massive (they've given up 44 attempts).-QG
 
QuizGuy66 said:
timschochet said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Interesting that Dodds is #1 in Kicker rankings. Curious how Hermann would rank here (I usually look to his kicker rankings more actually).-QG
Click to expand...
After I read that, I picked up Lawrence Tynes on waivers this week. I've been using Neil Rackers all year, who's been OK. But Dodds has Tynes #1 this week- I don't know what's special about him this week, but every little bit helps, so what the heck? I sure hope he's right!ETA- Herman has Rackers #2, while Tynes is way down the list at #13. Who knows?
Click to expand...
Actually the closest thing to my strategy usually is what team gives up the most field goals/field goal attempts. A super surprising team is last in terms of field goal attempts allowed this year (14) while the team that's allowed the most is probably less of a surprise, but the difference is massive (they've given up 44 attempts).-QG
Click to expand...
dumb question - where do you find that info?
 
I trust (and yes, agree) with Bloom pretty much all the time over the others. I find the others all mucked up with playing it safe. There is never a projection that indicates a given player might have that blow up week. That stuff is confined to articles, which is fine, if you have the time to wade through all of them. I'd like to see some risks taken in the weekly player projections, players who might benefit from injuries, matchups or other criteria.

My only complaint with the projections is the whole decimal point chance of scoring a TD. That to me says it's an algorythim. I don't believe mathematic probabilities take into account say, what DB might be on a given WR in one matchup. I have to guess at WHICH player say in INDY this week might score. 0.7 TD for J Walker.... is a 'can't be wrong" projection. Very safe.

I do my best to try to project beyond mathemetical probablities of a player scoring, I try to figure out which ones will. That requires one to stick their neck out VERY far, but I for one would appreciate projections like that.

 
I prefer Bloom. For W15, the fact that Dodds has Obomanu listed for only 37 yards seems strange. Bloom has 4 rec for 62. He practiced fully, Mike Williams is an iffy start, the Seahawks have almost no one left to play. And you have to think they will be playing from behind which means lots of Hasselback passing. Oh,, and add that Falcons pass DEF is woefully bad.

 
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