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Simple Formula For Value of Auction $ On the Fly (1 Viewer)

ScottyDog

Footballguy
I am in a 12 team auction league where the first 84 players (7 per team) are auctioned off and everyone gets $100 to buy the 7 players. After that, we fill out the rest of our rosters with a snake draft. Could someone please help me figure out the value of each $ after some players have been auctioned off? I figure there is some formula where you take the remaining $ available and some how compute that with the # of players left to draft? For instance 10 guys have been bought for a total of $300, so there is still 74 players left to auction and $900 total left. So how do I figure the value of the remaining $'s? Thanks guys.

 
ScottyDog said:
I am in a 12 team auction league where the first 84 players (7 per team) are auctioned off and everyone gets $100 to buy the 7 players. After that, we fill out the rest of our rosters with a snake draft. Could someone please help me figure out the value of each $ after some players have been auctioned off? I figure there is some formula where you take the remaining $ available and some how compute that with the # of players left to draft? For instance 10 guys have been bought for a total of $300, so there is still 74 players left to auction and $900 total left. So how do I figure the value of the remaining $'s? Thanks guys.
The DD will do this for you automatically. Just set it to have a roster size of 7 players.
 
As Calbear said, you can use Draft Dominator to do this for you. Just set it up as a 7 player roster. The Auction column tells you what the players should have originally gone for. As you move players over to teams and set the salary they actually got, the DynAuction column will show you the recalculated salary based on what was really spent.

But just for completeness, to figure out auction value in general:

Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200.

Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars.

Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400

Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.

Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57

To revise this as players get taken you use the same steps but you revise the Discretionary Money and the Total VBD Value, subtracting out the price and value of the players who are already gone. If, for example, Chris Johnson is the first player taken for $100, almost twice what we thought he was worth with my made up numbers, here's how it changes things:

Discretionary Money was $1116... with CJ getting $99 (plus the $1 minimum) it is now $1116 - $99 = $1017

Total VBD Value: Was 2400, removing CJ's 120 it is now 2280.

Dollars per FP: Is now $1017/2280 fp = .446

So if Andre Johnson also happened to be a 120 VBD value guy... both he and CJ should have been worth $57. But once CJ went for $100, he is now worth $1 + (120 fp * .446) = $1 + $53.52 = $55. His price drops because extra money that should have gone to the other players went to CJ instead.

 
Cool, thanks, I will check into that, I was hoping for something I could do in my head or on paper real quick as laptops are frowned upon at our draft.

ScottyDog said:
I am in a 12 team auction league where the first 84 players (7 per team) are auctioned off and everyone gets $100 to buy the 7 players. After that, we fill out the rest of our rosters with a snake draft. Could someone please help me figure out the value of each $ after some players have been auctioned off? I figure there is some formula where you take the remaining $ available and some how compute that with the # of players left to draft? For instance 10 guys have been bought for a total of $300, so there is still 74 players left to auction and $900 total left. So how do I figure the value of the remaining $'s? Thanks guys.
The DD will do this for you automatically. Just set it to have a roster size of 7 players.
 
Comments from leagues not allowing laptops aside...

You should be able to handle doing on paper the method I elaborated on. Just print out in advance a list of everyone's VBD value. Come up with the initial Total Discretionary Money and Total VBD Value beforehand.

As each player is taken, subtract his final salary and value from those totals, and divide the results to get your new factor. When the next player comes up for bid, multiply your new factor by his VBD value and you've got an adjusted price for the player being bid on.

Two subtractions, a division, and a multiplication to get the adjusted price for the next player. Should be able to handle that on paper.

 
GregR,Thank you very much for your help and all the effort. You totally answered my question. I love this website so much as people for the most part are very friendly and for the most part, really want to help each other out. Thanks bro, I will remember you. Scotty

Comments from leagues not allowing laptops aside...You should be able to handle doing on paper the method I elaborated on. Just print out in advance a list of everyone's VBD value. Come up with the initial Total Discretionary Money and Total VBD Value beforehand.As each player is taken, subtract his final salary and value from those totals, and divide the results to get your new factor. When the next player comes up for bid, multiply your new factor by his VBD value and you've got an adjusted price for the player being bid on.Two subtractions, a division, and a multiplication to get the adjusted price for the next player. Should be able to handle that on paper.
 
When computing VBD, make sure to have your roster set at 7 not your final roster size. This will put your baselines in the proper place.

 
I am in a 12 team auction league where the first 84 players (7 per team) are auctioned off and everyone gets $100 to buy the 7 players. After that, we fill out the rest of our rosters with a snake draft. Could someone please help me figure out the value of each $ after some players have been auctioned off? I figure there is some formula where you take the remaining $ available and some how compute that with the # of players left to draft? For instance 10 guys have been bought for a total of $300, so there is still 74 players left to auction and $900 total left. So how do I figure the value of the remaining $'s? Thanks guys.
Cal Bear and GregR have given you the ways and methods....................so I will just add this:In FF this is not even worth the effort it would take - FF projections and thus resultant dollar values are just not realisticOne exercise you can do easily with one additional sheet of paper at your draft 1) List the top 100 players (no K or DST) in descending order of projected FF pts (VBD if you wish)2) Draw a line at #84 - any players ten spots above and all below are worth $13) Star or highlight any of those that YOU really like - see how many there are - they are your fall back positions4) Save five dollars for your last three players (presumably from #3)5) Spend to get the best four players you can for your $95 being careful not to overspend and mindful or your league's scoring/lineup rules6) HAVE FUN......................get players YOU want to root for and that YOU think will do well this year
 
Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200. Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars. Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400 Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57To revise this as players get taken you use the same steps but you revise the Discretionary Money and the Total VBD Value, subtracting out the price and value of the players who are already gone. If, for example, Chris Johnson is the first player taken for $100, almost twice what we thought he was worth with my made up numbers, here's how it changes things: Discretionary Money was $1116... with CJ getting $99 (plus the $1 minimum) it is now $1116 - $99 = $1017 Total VBD Value: Was 2400, removing CJ's 120 it is now 2280. Dollars per FP: Is now $1017/2280 fp = .446So if Andre Johnson also happened to be a 120 VBD value guy... both he and CJ should have been worth $57. But once CJ went for $100, he is now worth $1 + (120 fp * .446) = $1 + $53.52 = $55. His price drops because extra money that should have gone to the other players went to CJ instead.
man, this is good stuff. I would love to try it out since my league doesn't allow laptops either. but that's a lot to do when you add in on top of keeping track of other teams' rosters and money left. plus, you know, beer.
 
Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200. Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars. Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400 Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57To revise this as players get taken you use the same steps but you revise the Discretionary Money and the Total VBD Value, subtracting out the price and value of the players who are already gone. If, for example, Chris Johnson is the first player taken for $100, almost twice what we thought he was worth with my made up numbers, here's how it changes things: Discretionary Money was $1116... with CJ getting $99 (plus the $1 minimum) it is now $1116 - $99 = $1017 Total VBD Value: Was 2400, removing CJ's 120 it is now 2280. Dollars per FP: Is now $1017/2280 fp = .446So if Andre Johnson also happened to be a 120 VBD value guy... both he and CJ should have been worth $57. But once CJ went for $100, he is now worth $1 + (120 fp * .446) = $1 + $53.52 = $55. His price drops because extra money that should have gone to the other players went to CJ instead.
man, this is good stuff. I would love to try it out since my league doesn't allow laptops either. but that's a lot to do when you add in on top of keeping track of other teams' rosters and money left. plus, you know, beer.
Another way to use Greg's formula is on your cheatsheet write that VBD/$ next to each player then as each player is auctioned off, mark +X or -Y next to that number - when the totals of the values are + you should be able to get good values ie, less than original value......when the values are - then you need to buy at their price or less because if total stays that way there will be bidding wars because people will have more money than they can spend for value.In either case mind this - THE POWER OF $2 - most people will have one dollar left for their last player or two (some four or five if they are Hot bidders and overspend for someone). YOU want to have one or two dollars more than one per player which is why I suggested $5 for your last three - that way when a player is nominated for $1 and you think he is much better than the other players available you can say $2 and get him. When it is your turn to nominate in the very end game and you Really Want the player - nominate at $2 and most won't be able to bid against you. If you think a bunch are equal then nominate for $1 and if someone outbids you you got rid of their extra dollar(s)
 
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As Calbear said, you can use Draft Dominator to do this for you. Just set it up as a 7 player roster. The Auction column tells you what the players should have originally gone for. As you move players over to teams and set the salary they actually got, the DynAuction column will show you the recalculated salary based on what was really spent.But just for completeness, to figure out auction value in general: Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200. Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars. Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400 Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57To revise this as players get taken you use the same steps but you revise the Discretionary Money and the Total VBD Value, subtracting out the price and value of the players who are already gone. If, for example, Chris Johnson is the first player taken for $100, almost twice what we thought he was worth with my made up numbers, here's how it changes things: Discretionary Money was $1116... with CJ getting $99 (plus the $1 minimum) it is now $1116 - $99 = $1017 Total VBD Value: Was 2400, removing CJ's 120 it is now 2280. Dollars per FP: Is now $1017/2280 fp = .446So if Andre Johnson also happened to be a 120 VBD value guy... both he and CJ should have been worth $57. But once CJ went for $100, he is now worth $1 + (120 fp * .446) = $1 + $53.52 = $55. His price drops because extra money that should have gone to the other players went to CJ instead.
This is fantastic and similar to what I had roughly worked out on my own for my auction drafts. What I didn't do was the discretionary $ step, which is great, so thanks! I think it would be really hard to do the upkeep on the fly--though I would love to do that--especially for an online auction, because you are having to keep track of so many things already (bidding, filling out your roster, what other owners are doing, etc.)...I might try it in some mocks though to see if I can pull it off.
 
bucsbaby said:
...This is fantastic and similar to what I had roughly worked out on my own for my auction drafts. What I didn't do was the discretionary $ step, which is great, so thanks! I think it would be really hard to do the upkeep on the fly--though I would love to do that--especially for an online auction, because you are having to keep track of so many things already (bidding, filling out your roster, what other owners are doing, etc.)...I might try it in some mocks though to see if I can pull it off.
Just use Draft Dominator. It will come up with initial auction values based on the baselines you use for VBD, and as you move players onto rosters as they are won in the auction, you enter their salary and it recalculates everyone's salary to take it into account.It'll also show you how many players at each position each team has, how much cap room they have left, etc.Though I do wish we were able to have more control over how backup player salaries are set in it. We really need DD to be able to have 2 systems for setting salaries that differ between starters and backups, if we want to generate the best set of prices we can.But if you don't have DD you can still set up a spreadsheet in Excel to do it all for you. I started out that way before DD existed.... I'd just enter the price in a column beside the player's name and had formulas that as soon as the price was entered it would update the prices.
 
bucsbaby said:
...This is fantastic and similar to what I had roughly worked out on my own for my auction drafts. What I didn't do was the discretionary $ step, which is great, so thanks! I think it would be really hard to do the upkeep on the fly--though I would love to do that--especially for an online auction, because you are having to keep track of so many things already (bidding, filling out your roster, what other owners are doing, etc.)...I might try it in some mocks though to see if I can pull it off.
Just use Draft Dominator. It will come up with initial auction values based on the baselines you use for VBD, and as you move players onto rosters as they are won in the auction, you enter their salary and it recalculates everyone's salary to take it into account.It'll also show you how many players at each position each team has, how much cap room they have left, etc.Though I do wish we were able to have more control over how backup player salaries are set in it. We really need DD to be able to have 2 systems for setting salaries that differ between starters and backups, if we want to generate the best set of prices we can.But if you don't have DD you can still set up a spreadsheet in Excel to do it all for you. I started out that way before DD existed.... I'd just enter the price in a column beside the player's name and had formulas that as soon as the price was entered it would update the prices.
Cool, thanks, I'll work on that!
 
My other thought on this is that if you are doing real time adjustments for pricing that you need to throw the old 80% of value target out the window. You should now be willing to pay 100-105% of your calculated value or else you will literally not be able to find enough talent left to spent your cap on. Could lead to a terrible auction if you don't recognize what others overpaying is doing to prices. Pull the trigger early on a couple players at or slightly above your calculated value and you'll be ok the rest of the way getting bargains.

 
My other thought on this is that if you are doing real time adjustments for pricing that you need to throw the old 80% of value target out the window. You should now be willing to pay 100-105% of your calculated value or else you will literally not be able to find enough talent left to spent your cap on. Could lead to a terrible auction if you don't recognize what others overpaying is doing to prices. Pull the trigger early on a couple players at or slightly above your calculated value and you'll be ok the rest of the way getting bargains.
Yes, you don't want to focus on only taking bargains and then ending up not getting all of your cap in play that you wanted to. If you have $170 allocated to starters your goal is to spend $170 on starters but get players who your initial calculations for salary add up to more than $170.So if you get an $80 RB for $75... then spend that $5 on some other starter. That might mean you get a $40 QB who is well-priced instead of a $35 who is well priced. Though preferable would be that it means you get a $40 QB who should have been $45, and who you wouldn't have been able to afford even at a good value price without the extra $5.

While we're digging deeper into strategy, to me two of the most important guidelines for auctions are:

1. If all players at a position are overpriced, it's ok to overpay as well to get players worth starting. Just try to get players who are overpaid less than everyone else. You'll still come out ahead.

2. When you find that you are not able to take advantage of values because you spent early and have little cap room... STOP SPENDING. Eventually the prices will come back to you.

I'd like to say how important #2 is in particular. I saw this from David Dodds the first time I ever did an auction. He was making people pay premium prices at RBs and I grated my teeth that people didn't just stick him with one of them (as he was set at the position) as it would hurt his team. Finally people stopped bailing him out at the last second and we stuck him with a 4th starting RB which killed his cap. The owner who had really driven the bidding up to that point was suddenly out of it. However instead of bidding up more players and risking what he had left, he just sat back and waited and waited, and eventually he again had enough cap room to be a prime player in the bidding, and he ruled the end of the draft (using the power of $2 someone mentioned previously). I learned a lot from watching him in that first auction.

 
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Some of this stuff really can cause analysis paralysis if you overdue it.

After years of auction play, I've come up with the following: analyze all you want pre-auction, but keep it simple during.

Try this -

1. Multiply your total cap per team by the number of teams to get a total dollars available. (e.g. $100 per team x 10 teams = $1000 total available)

2. Then assign at least $1 to enough players in the overall player pool to constitute your entire league. (e.g. 16 players per team x 10 teams = 160 players with assigned values)

3. Assign according to the likely number of players at each position that will be drafted. (e.g. 25 QBs, 45 RBs, etc)

4. Raise the $$$ assignments for players as you move up your rankings, making sure that in total you don't exceed the overall dollars available (e.g. $1000).

5. Try to overweight the elite players. DO NOT assign dollar values based on relative expected scoring. (e.g. CJ4.24 might be assigned $40, while Michael Bush is assigned $4 - this doesn't mean you think CJ will outscore Bush by a factor of 10; it just means that elite production is much more scarce).

6. Recognize that every auction is different and in a sense has it's own "life." Even auctions in the same league can vary wildly from one year to the next. Be flexible. If you see that everyone is overspending relative to your dollar assignments, you might have to join them to grab at least one or two elite guys. But also recognize that this will likely mean huge value and control later in the auction if you can keep from getting sucked in too deep with the spending craze.

7. Usually I find that the first round of nominations represents fair value and often even good value. Rounds 2-5 are when everyone goes crazy and overspends. And then from round six on, huge drops in dollar prices emerge and those with cap power who know what they are doing can really take advantage.

8. Save a little extra for sleepers late. You'd be surprised how a little bit extra goes a long way towards the end.

Good luck!

 
1. If all players at a position are overpriced, it's ok to overpay as well to get players worth starting. Just try to get players who are overpaid less than everyone else. You'll still come out ahead.
Great post GregR. But I disagree with the above. If my opponents are willing to overpay on the top 15 RB's, have at it. I'm not going to overspend right along with them JUST to have a top 15 RB. The thing is, you can't overspend on EVERYBODY. Somewhere else, I'm making up that value for their willingness to do so. If that means I acquire four top 20 WR's and have to cobble together my RB's, I'm okay with that.
 
1. If all players at a position are overpriced, it's ok to overpay as well to get players worth starting. Just try to get players who are overpaid less than everyone else. You'll still come out ahead.
Great post GregR. But I disagree with the above. If my opponents are willing to overpay on the top 15 RB's, have at it. I'm not going to overspend right along with them JUST to have a top 15 RB. The thing is, you can't overspend on EVERYBODY. Somewhere else, I'm making up that value for their willingness to do so. If that means I acquire four top 20 WR's and have to cobble together my RB's, I'm okay with that.
Well, I said the situation is you have to overpay to get players worth starting. RBs 16 and 17 are probably normally players worth starting in most years. So if you can get them at below the prices they should be, great do it. I'm talking about when there are not starter quality players who aren't being overpaid. Obviously RB is the position we're talking about here. Combine a shorter supply of good RBs with a league that overvalues RBs to start with and has some people who believe you need 3 starting caliber RBs to win, and you may not see good prices at RB until you are down in the questionable RBBC area. Possibly into the RB3 area, even poor ones.

I think it can be tough to make up the extra points at other positions when your RB starters are that much worse than everyone else's. Not to mention that you're now starting players who are more likely to put up almost no points some weeks and may make your team very inconsistent in their scoring.

If everyone else is overpaying 15% or 20% for RBs and you overpay 5%, you're still going to end up with an advantage on them at the other positions. I think it's worth doing that to make sure you have players you are comfortable with starting even if they are not discounted values.

I'll agree it is a debatable point though. But I think consistency in scoring and how much risk you are taking on make it the smarter play.

 
I think the correct answer is you are both right. You can refuse to overpay for a position and you will get value elsewhere. Like GregR said though is it enough value to make up the loss at RB. Dependant on league format and scoring one will just have to find out what works best for them through trial and error.

That is what I love about Auctions. There are so many wide and varied strategys to employ.

One last thought. Your leaguemates should probably recognize that you dont have any quality RB's on your team once the supply has dimmished to a last couple of real options. At that point if they are astute enough they will make you overpay for the last runningback guys you are sure to need. I know, I've seen them do it to me.

 
The true power position throughout an auction does not go to the one who has the most money remaining but to the one who has spent the most money for value to that point.

 
Im all for going in with a baseline and range. But the poster that said "have fun"" and get guys you want to root for" he's right on. Draft day is a day I look forward to right after the NFL draft.

I enjoy winning and come close every year. But no title. Which I'm ok with. I'm having fun. And live auction is a hell of a time.

 
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noneother said:
Im all for going in with a baseline and range. But the poster that said "have fun"" and get guys you want to root for" he's right on. Draft day is a day I look forward to right after the NFL draft. I enjoy winning and come close every year. But no title. Which I'm ok with. I'm having fun. And live auction is a hell of a time.
:lmao: Eggsactly - if you turn what should be one of the BEST days of the year into four hours of being frustrated, shuffling through too many papers (I can do ANY auction on one or two pieces of paper), worrying, getting aggravated, second guessing yourself and generally being a pouty little boy then you have wasted the opportunity for a really FUN day .................and will probably have a crappy team as well
 
But just for completeness, to figure out auction value in general: Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200. Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars. Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400 Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57To revise this as players get taken you use the same steps but you revise the Discretionary Money and the Total VBD Value, subtracting out the price and value of the players who are already gone. If, for example, Chris Johnson is the first player taken for $100, almost twice what we thought he was worth with my made up numbers, here's how it changes things: Discretionary Money was $1116... with CJ getting $99 (plus the $1 minimum) it is now $1116 - $99 = $1017 Total VBD Value: Was 2400, removing CJ's 120 it is now 2280. Dollars per FP: Is now $1017/2280 fp = .446So if Andre Johnson also happened to be a 120 VBD value guy... both he and CJ should have been worth $57. But once CJ went for $100, he is now worth $1 + (120 fp * .446) = $1 + $53.52 = $55. His price drops because extra money that should have gone to the other players went to CJ instead.
I wish someone smarter than me would come up with a cell phone app that would do all this. I don't think it would be too tough, and I would pay for it just so that I wouldn't have to do it on paper at the draft.
 
crnerblitz said:
One last thought. Your leaguemates should probably recognize that you dont have any quality RB's on your team once the supply has dimmished to a last couple of real options. At that point if they are astute enough they will make you overpay for the last runningback guys you are sure to need. I know, I've seen them do it to me.
I think this is right on as well - very good advice. And, as other have alluded to, only pursuing value can leave you with a team of marginal players. I'm not advocating overspending like crazy - just don't let value be the end-all, be-all.
 
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noneother said:
Im all for going in with a baseline and range. But the poster that said "have fun"" and get guys you want to root for" he's right on. Draft day is a day I look forward to right after the NFL draft. I enjoy winning and come close every year. But no title. Which I'm ok with. I'm having fun. And live auction is a hell of a time.
:bowtie: Eggsactly - if you turn what should be one of the BEST days of the year into four hours of being frustrated, shuffling through too many papers (I can do ANY auction on one or two pieces of paper), worrying, getting aggravated, second guessing yourself and generally being a pouty little boy then you have wasted the opportunity for a really FUN day .................and will probably have a crappy team as well
:mellow: Is there a reason for the condescending tone?
 
GregR said:
FantasyTrader said:
GregR said:
1. If all players at a position are overpriced, it's ok to overpay as well to get players worth starting. Just try to get players who are overpaid less than everyone else. You'll still come out ahead.
Great post GregR. But I disagree with the above. If my opponents are willing to overpay on the top 15 RB's, have at it. I'm not going to overspend right along with them JUST to have a top 15 RB. The thing is, you can't overspend on EVERYBODY. Somewhere else, I'm making up that value for their willingness to do so. If that means I acquire four top 20 WR's and have to cobble together my RB's, I'm okay with that.
Well, I said the situation is you have to overpay to get players worth starting. RBs 16 and 17 are probably normally players worth starting in most years. So if you can get them at below the prices they should be, great do it. I'm talking about when there are not starter quality players who aren't being overpaid. Obviously RB is the position we're talking about here. Combine a shorter supply of good RBs with a league that overvalues RBs to start with and has some people who believe you need 3 starting caliber RBs to win, and you may not see good prices at RB until you are down in the questionable RBBC area. Possibly into the RB3 area, even poor ones.

I think it can be tough to make up the extra points at other positions when your RB starters are that much worse than everyone else's. Not to mention that you're now starting players who are more likely to put up almost no points some weeks and may make your team very inconsistent in their scoring.

If everyone else is overpaying 15% or 20% for RBs and you overpay 5%, you're still going to end up with an advantage on them at the other positions. I think it's worth doing that to make sure you have players you are comfortable with starting even if they are not discounted values.

I'll agree it is a debatable point though. But I think consistency in scoring and how much risk you are taking on make it the smarter play.
There's a downside to NOT overpaying for a RB early if everyone else is doing it.Actually it's two things - but they're related.

1. If you don't overpay, you're going to have a bucket of $ at the end and no reasonable player to spend it on. I've seen it happen many times (and it often does happen, and I'm guilty of it). If you don't overspend at some point you'll never get enough talent to win. Dominating the end of your auction feels good but your team will stink with so many mediocre players. I'm talking about guys that are maybe in the RB30-35 and WR30-35 range. Sure they're good and startable players, but a roster full of them will lose. Don't wait too long to shoot the lock off of the wallet.

2. If everyone in an auction is overspending early, guess what... no one will feel the pain of that excessive spending. All it will do is re-price the remaining talent.

I'll elaborate - let's say RBs1-10 in a ten team draft are "supposed" to cost $600 total in a $200 budget league. That seems pricey to you but it's not terrible. Some $80s guys and some $65 and $50 guys. Reasonable. Now you get to the auction and the $80 guys go for $110, the $65 is $80 and the $50 is $65 or $70. Yikes, you think. But all that has happened is that the league has spent about $800 or $900 instead of $600. If everyone has bought into this valuation, all it means is that the rest of the talent pool is cheaper. If EVERYONE does it, then EVERYONE won't feel the pain of not having $ later in the draft.

Now you enter in the equation and you hold out - not paying for "overpriced" guys. You have $200 while everyone else averages $115 after 12 guys are gone. It's time to pony up and overpay because every $20 guy on your list just became $15 and every $5 is now $2. Buy the best guy on your list and overpay up to 10% if you have to because everyone has overpaid.

Good luck.

 
...

There's a downside to NOT overpaying for a RB early if everyone else is doing it.

Actually it's two things - but they're related.

1. If you don't overpay, you're going to have a bucket of $ at the end and no reasonable player to spend it on. I've seen it happen many times (and it often does happen, and I'm guilty of it). If you don't overspend at some point you'll never get enough talent to win. Dominating the end of your auction feels good but your team will stink with so many mediocre players. I'm talking about guys that are maybe in the RB30-35 and WR30-35 range. Sure they're good and startable players, but a roster full of them will lose. Don't wait too long to shoot the lock off of the wallet.

2. If everyone in an auction is overspending early, guess what... no one will feel the pain of that excessive spending. All it will do is re-price the remaining talent.

...
Excellent point, JP. There have been times where I have great value on my roster but too much unspent money. It does you no good to leave money on the table even if you get great deals.
 
It does you no good to leave money on the table even if you get great deals.
I'm often guilty of this as well, along with saving too much of my total salary for backups/roster spots.The one exception to this, however, are keeper leagues, where having great bargains can help solidify a win in future years. But it definitely makes the current year a painful one.
 
GregR said:
FantasyTrader said:
GregR said:
1. If all players at a position are overpriced, it's ok to overpay as well to get players worth starting. Just try to get players who are overpaid less than everyone else. You'll still come out ahead.
Great post GregR. But I disagree with the above. If my opponents are willing to overpay on the top 15 RB's, have at it. I'm not going to overspend right along with them JUST to have a top 15 RB. The thing is, you can't overspend on EVERYBODY. Somewhere else, I'm making up that value for their willingness to do so. If that means I acquire four top 20 WR's and have to cobble together my RB's, I'm okay with that.
Well, I said the situation is you have to overpay to get players worth starting. RBs 16 and 17 are probably normally players worth starting in most years. So if you can get them at below the prices they should be, great do it. I'm talking about when there are not starter quality players who aren't being overpaid. Obviously RB is the position we're talking about here. Combine a shorter supply of good RBs with a league that overvalues RBs to start with and has some people who believe you need 3 starting caliber RBs to win, and you may not see good prices at RB until you are down in the questionable RBBC area. Possibly into the RB3 area, even poor ones.

I think it can be tough to make up the extra points at other positions when your RB starters are that much worse than everyone else's. Not to mention that you're now starting players who are more likely to put up almost no points some weeks and may make your team very inconsistent in their scoring.

If everyone else is overpaying 15% or 20% for RBs and you overpay 5%, you're still going to end up with an advantage on them at the other positions. I think it's worth doing that to make sure you have players you are comfortable with starting even if they are not discounted values.

I'll agree it is a debatable point though. But I think consistency in scoring and how much risk you are taking on make it the smarter play.
There's a downside to NOT overpaying for a RB early if everyone else is doing it.Actually it's two things - but they're related.

1. If you don't overpay, you're going to have a bucket of $ at the end and no reasonable player to spend it on. I've seen it happen many times (and it often does happen, and I'm guilty of it). If you don't overspend at some point you'll never get enough talent to win. Dominating the end of your auction feels good but your team will stink with so many mediocre players. I'm talking about guys that are maybe in the RB30-35 and WR30-35 range. Sure they're good and startable players, but a roster full of them will lose. Don't wait too long to shoot the lock off of the wallet.

2. If everyone in an auction is overspending early, guess what... no one will feel the pain of that excessive spending. All it will do is re-price the remaining talent.

I'll elaborate - let's say RBs1-10 in a ten team draft are "supposed" to cost $600 total in a $200 budget league. That seems pricey to you but it's not terrible. Some $80s guys and some $65 and $50 guys. Reasonable. Now you get to the auction and the $80 guys go for $110, the $65 is $80 and the $50 is $65 or $70. Yikes, you think. But all that has happened is that the league has spent about $800 or $900 instead of $600. If everyone has bought into this valuation, all it means is that the rest of the talent pool is cheaper. If EVERYONE does it, then EVERYONE won't feel the pain of not having $ later in the draft.

Now you enter in the equation and you hold out - not paying for "overpriced" guys. You have $200 while everyone else averages $115 after 12 guys are gone. It's time to pony up and overpay because every $20 guy on your list just became $15 and every $5 is now $2. Buy the best guy on your list and overpay up to 10% if you have to because everyone has overpaid.

Good luck.
:unsure: I try and keep a draft mentality in the back of my mind when doing an auction: I still want a RB1, RB2, WR 1, WR2, WR 3, TE 1, etc. If the RB1s go for ridiculous prices, then there are a couple options that have been mentioned: 1) Overpay the least for one of the bottom RB1s; 2) Grab a pair of RB2s with good upside if the overpaying subsides; 3) Grab good value at other positions (WR, QB) once the other teams have drained their accounts. At some point the spending spree is going to die down--and it should die down before you get to the RB3 and WR3 range--by virtue of the fact that teams only have so much $$$. That's the point where you pounce in and try to scoop up good value on your WR2x2, WR3, RB2x2, TE1, QB1, etc. If you can't get a RB1 and/or WR1 due to teams overspending, then just target RB2s and WR2s with good upside imo and make sure you dominate the rest of the auction as much as possible. 1-2 players (RB1/WR1) are not going to win a ff league, especially considering in-season management, so do well with the rest of the auction and you should still easily be competitive.

 
But just for completeness, to figure out auction value in general:

Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200.

Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars.

Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400

Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.

Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57
Can someone remind me how this works for players who will be drafted, but have a negative VBD #? E.g., 10 team league; Eli projected to go as QB 12. Using worst starter as a baseline (QB10), Eli would have a negative VBD #. Using the above numbers as an example, if I were to multiply 0.465 $/VBD point by Eli's (e.g.,) -20 VBD, I would get -$9.3??? It's been a couple years since I've done this, so if someone could remind me how to assign auction $ for backups using this method, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
 
Can someone remind me how this works for players who will be drafted, but have a negative VBD #? E.g., 10 team league; Eli projected to go as QB 12. Using worst starter as a baseline (QB10), Eli would have a negative VBD #. Using the above numbers as an example, if I were to multiply 0.465 $/VBD point by Eli's (e.g.,) -20 VBD, I would get -$9.3??? It's been a couple years since I've done this, so if someone could remind me how to assign auction $ for backups using this method, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Don't use a worst starter baseline in an auction; everything below baseline is $1, which is not correct if you're using worst starter. "Maurile's Auction Method" is a decent starting point.
 
But just for completeness, to figure out auction value in general:

Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200.

Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars.

Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400

Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.

Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57
Can someone remind me how this works for players who will be drafted, but have a negative VBD #? E.g., 10 team league; Eli projected to go as QB 12. Using worst starter as a baseline (QB10), Eli would have a negative VBD #. Using the above numbers as an example, if I were to multiply 0.465 $/VBD point by Eli's (e.g.,) -20 VBD, I would get -$9.3??? It's been a couple years since I've done this, so if someone could remind me how to assign auction $ for backups using this method, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Treat negative VBD values as 0. A salary can't be less than the minimum salary, so anyone not good enough to gain extra salary from his production gets the minimum salary. Also be sure you don't add in negatives when figuring out your total VBD value for all players.MT's system will take as much into account as possible as you can pretty much. Instead of using a player's full season VBD value, his takes into account how many games a player in that situation (i.e. RB5) actually starts on average in fantasy. So if your QB10 only tends to start 10 games, MT's method will using only 10/16 of his value to give his salary. A backup it might be more like 3/16. That took a lot of effort for him to build those models of how many games a given slotted player normally starts in fantasy.

My initial response here you're quoting is probably the simplest method that should give pretty good results. But there's a general problem in every system, including MT's, in using projections for all backups... since many times we take non-primary backups based on potential if they take over a starting role, rather than our "most likely" projection that would be used to get our VBD value. That is, if I draft Mewelde Moore it isn't based on value from a FBG projection that he'll score 30 points. It's based on where I'd rank him compared to other NFL backups on how likely he is to start (due to injury, benching, etc) and how I think he'll do if he does start. There's no single good baseline to use for starters, primary backups, and your late picks.

But anyway, here's how I'd suggest modifying what I said previously if you want to do a better job with allocating money for backups.

SET BACKUP SALARIES FIRST

First I'd use that general method once through to determine the salaries for backups. Ignore the starters for now. Set a baseline equal to the highest ranked player at the position who you think should only be the minimum salary. So let's say that you think QB21 should only be $1 because you can get someone from waivers you think is roughly as good as him at any point during the season.

So figure out VBD value for all the backups who should be more than the minimum... QBs 13-20 in my example using a baseline of QB21. Do the same for each position. Use the method I first posted, summing up only the backup's VBD values. When you find your total cap dollars available, don't use the full salary cap, but use a percentage of it based on what you think should be spent on backups. For instance, many people try to spend 85% on starters and 15% on backups. So use 15% of the total salary instead of the whole thing.

Calculate your backup-only dollars per fantasy point... and use it to multiply by each backup's value to assign his salary and add back in the minimum salary to find each backup's price.

NOW FIGURE OUT STARTER SALARIES

Now you need to figure out the starters. We use the same method as before, but using best backups as the baseline player...but with two more changes. First, we use just the part of our cap that is allocated for starters. 85% in my example.

Second... our minimum salary we use to calculate Discretionary money for starters isn't the true $1 league minimum salary anymore. If our best backup QB13 is $4, then every QB above him should be $4 or more as well. So instead of subtracting out $1 for each QB1-QB12, we now need to subtract out $4 for each of them = -$48 for QBs. So when you subtract out the "minimum salary", you need to do each position individually and you need to use a value equal to the salary of the best backup.

Once that's done, it's mostly all the same. You sum up the value of just the starters, divide the starter cap's discretionary money by it, and now you have your multiplier that will yield your salary for starters. (Remember to add that position-dependent minimum salary back in for each player's final salary.)

I hope that made sense. It's late and I'm tired. If it didn't, let me know and I can try to walk through an example tomorrow. You might work through it and find you don't like the results and need to revise your thoughts on which backup should start being the minimum salary. Or you might find you're spending too much on backups, or not enough. For deep leagues where you do want to spend more than minimum on your "Swing for the Fences" type sleepers, you might want to manually adjust some VBD values to reflect which players are more valuable than others and by how much in your opinion.

This is actually the method I used in my startup auction of my contract dynasty league. With a bunch of player's VBD values manually edited to account for things like age.

 
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But just for completeness, to figure out auction value in general:

Find the Total Money in the league: 12 teams * $100 = $1200.

Find Discretionary Money = (Total Money) - (Minimum salary for each roster spot) = $1200 - (7 players * $1 minimum * 12 teams) = $1200 - $84 = $1116 discretionary dollars.

Add up the VBD values of all the players who will be auctioned: (I'll make up a number for the example) 2400

Find dollars per fantasy point by dividing Discretionary Money by Total VBD Value: $1116 / 2400 fp = 0.465 dollars per fantasy point.

Now you have a number that you can multiply each player's value by, and he's worth that much (plus the extra $1 minimum we already set aside for him). So if Chris Johnson's VBD value is 120, then he's worth $1 + (120 * .465) = $1 + 55.8 = $57
Can someone remind me how this works for players who will be drafted, but have a negative VBD #? E.g., 10 team league; Eli projected to go as QB 12. Using worst starter as a baseline (QB10), Eli would have a negative VBD #. Using the above numbers as an example, if I were to multiply 0.465 $/VBD point by Eli's (e.g.,) -20 VBD, I would get -$9.3??? It's been a couple years since I've done this, so if someone could remind me how to assign auction $ for backups using this method, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Treat negative VBD values as 0. A salary can't be less than the minimum salary, so anyone not good enough to gain extra salary from his production gets the minimum salary. Also be sure you don't add in negatives when figuring out your total VBD value for all players.MT's system will take as much into account as possible as you can pretty much. Instead of using a player's full season VBD value, his takes into account how many games a player in that situation (i.e. RB5) actually starts on average in fantasy. So if your QB10 only tends to start 10 games, MT's method will using only 10/16 of his value to give his salary. A backup it might be more like 3/16. That took a lot of effort for him to build those models of how many games a given slotted player normally starts in fantasy.

My initial response here you're quoting is probably the simplest method that should give pretty good results. But there's a general problem in every system, including MT's, in using projections for all backups... since many times we take non-primary backups based on potential if they take over a starting role, rather than our "most likely" projection that would be used to get our VBD value. That is, if I draft Mewelde Moore it isn't based on value from a FBG projection that he'll score 30 points. It's based on where I'd rank him compared to other NFL backups on how likely he is to start (due to injury, benching, etc) and how I think he'll do if he does start. There's no single good baseline to use for starters, primary backups, and your late picks.

But anyway, here's how I'd suggest modifying what I said previously if you want to do a better job with allocating money for backups.

SET BACKUP SALARIES FIRST

First I'd use that general method once through to determine the salaries for backups. Ignore the starters for now. Set a baseline equal to the highest ranked player at the position who you think should only be the minimum salary. So let's say that you think QB21 should only be $1 because you can get someone from waivers you think is roughly as good as him at any point during the season.

So figure out VBD value for all the backups who should be more than the minimum... QBs 13-20 in my example using a baseline of QB21. Do the same for each position. Use the method I first posted, summing up only the backup's VBD values. When you find your total cap dollars available, don't use the full salary cap, but use a percentage of it based on what you think should be spent on backups. For instance, many people try to spend 85% on starters and 15% on backups. So use 15% of the total salary instead of the whole thing.

Calculate your backup-only dollars per fantasy point... and use it to multiply by each backup's value to assign his salary and add back in the minimum salary to find each backup's price.

NOW FIGURE OUT STARTER SALARIES

Now you need to figure out the starters. We use the same method as before, but using best backups as the baseline player...but with two more changes. First, we use just the part of our cap that is allocated for starters. 85% in my example.

Second... our minimum salary we use to calculate Discretionary money for starters isn't the true $1 league minimum salary anymore. If our best backup QB13 is $4, then every QB above him should be $4 or more as well. So instead of subtracting out $1 for each QB1-QB12, we now need to subtract out $4 for each of them = -$48 for QBs. So when you subtract out the "minimum salary", you need to do each position individually and you need to use a value equal to the salary of the best backup.

Once that's done, it's mostly all the same. You sum up the value of just the starters, divide the starter cap's discretionary money by it, and now you have your multiplier that will yield your salary for starters. (Remember to add that position-dependent minimum salary back in for each player's final salary.)

I hope that made sense. It's late and I'm tired. If it didn't, let me know and I can try to walk through an example tomorrow. You might work through it and find you don't like the results and need to revise your thoughts on which backup should start being the minimum salary. Or you might find you're spending too much on backups, or not enough. For deep leagues where you do want to spend more than minimum on your "Swing for the Fences" type sleepers, you might want to manually adjust some VBD values to reflect which players are more valuable than others and by how much in your opinion.

This is actually the method I used in my startup auction of my contract dynasty league. With a bunch of player's VBD values manually edited to account for things like age.
Thanks--fantastic! Totally makes sense too, so no worries :thumbup:
 
Just want to thank those of you who posted advice in this thread. Had my first auction last night, and I think I ended up pretty well. It wasn't perfect by any means, but I'm happy.

$200 budget, Starters - 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FL, PK, DEF. 10 teams. 3 of the guys I didn't even mean to pick b/c I was slacking on the computer

QB Ben Roethlisberger 4

RB Chris Johnson 64

RB Maurice Jones-Drew 53

RB/WR Santonio Holmes 3

WR Larry Fitzgerald 34

WR Chad Ochocinco 14

TE Dallas Clark 19

D/ST Vikings D/ST 1

K David Akers 1

BE Alex Smith 1

BE Alex Smith 1 - meant to pick Alex Smith QB here (I got him the next round)

BE Javon Walker 1 -jammed up with time, didn't mean to pick him

BE Kenny Britt 1 -jammed up with time, didn't mean to pick him

BE Leon Washington 1

BE Fred Taylor 1

BE Chris Ivory 1

 

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