Size Adjusted Injury Risk (1 Viewer)

[Pwingles]

I'm hoping to use this thread to compile data on certain types of players.

The theory is;

A. that certain injuries are more or less probable based on size, and

B. other injuries are simply a bi product of playing football, and not necessarily predictable. Nor are they indicative of being more or less durable

I dislike the term "injury prone". I think its lazy, and usually just incorrect. I think its used to describe people that have had multiple injuries in general, and I think its not a good description of what is happening with some players. So i am going to look at RB's of different sizes, and their injury history to try and see if there are any correlation between their size and the types of injuries they experience. Maybe we will find a set of predictors that is somewhat accurate?

I am going to use "sports injury predictor" to gather an initial list of players and their injuries, only because their list is easy to use to compile some initial data, we can compare our findings to their predictor later just to see how it looks.

At first I would like to put in place a set of parameters to describe the two groups;

"Small Rbs" , id say generally speaking i would consider 5'9'' or shorter, and 205 lb or less to be a small RB

"Big Rbs", 5'11''+, 215+

Im unsure of what the average size would be, maybe we can adjust these as the topic rolls on. I'll be adding players and links to the OP as we go. Feel free to add any injury info and links if I miss some.

Small Group;

Darren Sproles - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/darren-sproles/2878

Danny Woodhead- http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/danny-woodhead/3308

Chris Thompson - cannot get info on SIP at the moment

Doug Martin - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/doug-martin/5064

D Freeman - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/devonta-freeman/7002

T Coleman - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/tevin-coleman/7256

Duke Johnson -http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/duke-johnson/7249

Dion Lewis - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/dion-lewis/4741

Bigger Group;

Lev Bell - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/leveon-bell/6666

Zeke - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/ezekiel-elliott/7459

Gurley - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/todd-gurley/7208

DJ - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/david-johnson/7262

Gordon - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/melvin-gordon/7209

D Henry - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/derrick-henry/7461

JoHo - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/jordan-howard/7462

C Hyde - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/carlos-hyde/6976

Ingram - http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/mark-ingram/4696

 

[BoltBacker]

"Small Rbs" , id say generally speaking i would consider 5'9'' or shorter, and 205 lb or less to be a small RB

Interesting idea for a thread but do you mean "and"?

Unless Doug Martin is on that crazy potato diet I don't think he's seen 205 pounds in a minute. I guess I don't think of him as a small back. Really Coleman, Freeman, and Johnson are just on the edge depending on what they weight that day.

I'll admit that I disagree with your premise(no matter what anyone says I think Jordan Reed is a bigger injury risk than your average player.... so I guess I'd call him "injury prone") but I think there's also an intangible factor that I would call style of play that contributes just as much as height/weight. Russel Wilson is a smaller guy than Cam Newton but I expect Wilson to have a longer and less injury riddled future based on their playing styles. In RB terms, I think there are certain RB's that have an odd sixth-sense for self preservation. Tomlinson was amazing at this despite the fact he ran between the tackles often. Certain guys "squirt" forward and avoid a huge hit somehow at the end of plays. Christian Okoye was fun to watch and despite being much bigger than Tomlinson..... he just took(and gave) a pounding in collisions with defenders. Admittedly, that's tougher to quantify and compare.

 

[Pwingles]

yes, i meant one or the other for height and weight

i realize some shorter rbs are thicker, and some taller rbs are more lean, maybe the data will point to some indicator for if that matters, we can tweak as we go

 

[Rodrigo Duterte]

One of my favorite FBG theories that goes way back on here is how there's no way to tell who might get injured and all that.  Threads upon threads of debate.  Fine, draft Jordan Reed all you want guys.

 

[BoltBacker]

One of my favorite FBG theories that goes way back on here is how there's no way to tell who might get injured and all that.  Threads upon threads of debate.  Fine, draft Jordan Reed all you want guys.

Ah, Fred Taylor threads...... and really those were the ones at the start of his career in the 90's. That counts as one in Pwingles column.

 

[BoltBacker]

Pwingles, where do you personally rank Tyler Eifert in TE's?

 

[CalBear]

First of all, your categories are pretty arbitrary. Among other things, we don't really know what people weigh. You have Doug Martin in the "small" category but he's listed at 223. 

Second, if you're trying to do a statistical study, you'll need to do it with RBs who have a history in the league. Look at the last 10-20 years instead of just a snapshot of today. The fact that Jordan Howard didn't get injured in his rookie season isn't very meaningful.

 

[Pwingles]

First of all, your categories are pretty arbitrary. Among other things, we don't really know what people weigh. You have Doug Martin in the "small" category but he's listed at 223. 

Second, if you're trying to do a statistical study, you'll need to do it with RBs who have a history in the league. Look at the last 10-20 years instead of just a snapshot of today. The fact that Jordan Howard didn't get injured in his rookie season isn't very meaningful.

They are arbitrary because i wasnt sure where to start.

As i explained above, the height and weight req's were either, or. That was why Doug was put there. He can be moved, I just wanted to get a broad sample of various body types. Small and lean guys, as well as small and built guys, etc.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Ah, Fred Taylor threads...... and really those were the ones at the start of his career in the 90's. That counts as one in Pwingles column.

And Isaac Bruce before that.  How did that work?  I seem to remember Aaron Rodgers being tagged as injury prone also.  Something about a glass jaw...

.

 

[Snorkelson]

Perhaps we need to work the other way on this- pick the injury, then find the data to correlate if that injury happens more to a specific body type, and how different types recover from those injuries. There’s a big difference from Keenan Allen’s injuries and Jordan reeds injuries, making one a bigger risk regardless of size. 

 

[Football Jones]

And Isaac Bruce before that.  How did that work?  I seem to remember Aaron Rodgers being tagged as injury prone also.  Something about a glass jaw...

.

Bruce brings back memories. Before all the internet sites & video that’s available today, I scored big with Bruce on a tip from one of Fantasy Football Index’ training camp/preseason reports. They said he was looking really good after being banged up in his rookie season. Bruce had a monster season in ‘95 in just his 2nd year (his best ever with 119/1,781/13).

FFI was the sheet back then with the best mag (by far) & the summer reports. They came snail mail. I still get their mag most years just for reading material. 

 

[habsfan]

Perhaps we need to work the other way on this- pick the injury, then find the data to correlate if that injury happens more to a specific body type, and how different types recover from those injuries. There’s a big difference from Keenan Allen’s injuries and Jordan reeds injuries, making one a bigger risk regardless of size. 

I'm not a scientist or statistician but this is along the lines of what I was thinking as I read this thread. The approach he is taking feels like it carries a very high risk of confirmation bias.

In terms of injury risk, what's the "secret sauce" between games missed versus catastrophic / season-ending injury versus "nagging" injury? 

 

[Pwingles]

I am gonna work more on this, have two rookie drafts today so it will not be til monday unless i get some free time sunday. Im excited to see what we can learn though

 

[Ilov80s]

One of my favorite FBG theories that goes way back on here is how there's no way to tell who might get injured and all that.  Threads upon threads of debate.  Fine, draft Jordan Reed all you want guys.

There is definitely a different between injuries and accidents. Keenan Allen is the best example of a guy who has had accidents. Jordan Reed is the best example of a guy who has been injury prone. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I would imagine size could be negatively correlated to one type of "injury" and positively correlated to another type of "injury". For example size may help players absorb contact and avoid certains types of injuries but that extra size could put more pressure on certain joints and increase the chances of those injuries.

 

[Chaka]

@Dr. Dan what are your thoughts on Dion Lewis. Unlucky accidents or closer to injury prone? He's going to get opportunities behind one of the best lines in the league this year and I am having trouble placing him on my draft board because of the perception of injury risk.