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SJax @ #1 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Colin Dowling
- Start date
duaneok66
Footballguy
excellent point . . .
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
I don't think this is OVERLY crazy. But, I also think Colin somehow managed to get the #2 pick in every league he's in, and is attempting to skew ADP.
ukshane
Footballguy
You are absolutely correct. And it only took him 32 more touches than LT to get those 11 extra yards.
I honestly don't think that you would take him first overall in a high priced money league. Therefor, I can only assume that you are ranking him number one so that you can crow about it if it were to turn out being true. If the "experts" at fbg are using this line of thought to rank players then we, the subscibers, aren't getting a true representation of what we are paying for.
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
I am curious why his catches would go up. And LT's look to be going down.
BigRed
Footballguy
Take a look at the entire history of catches by RBs not named Marshall Faulk and get back to us. SJ is a good receiver, but he is not sniffing the 90 catch range. And while I hardly take "coachspeak" as gospel, they have stated (and logically so) that they plan to cut his receiving workload. Expecting 90+ is outright silly. Were you saying the same thing after LT caught his 100? Many were. I snickered at that one too. RBs just don't snag that many balls year after year. Faulk was the very rare exception, and again props to Jackson but he's no Faulk.
So you're saying things stay about the same as last year? I question that, given that Leonard is a good candidate to steal at least a little more from SJ than anyone did last year, but OK......and this justifies SJ as #1 because...?
Because...........This didn't really support your stance either, to be honest.
Nor does this. DEN or PIT D? Tough call IMO.SJ may very well end up #1. I sure as heck don't expect LT to come close to last year. But I don't see where you backed it up here. my .02
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
While I disagree with Colin, it is NOT a stretch of any kind if he were to finish as the #1 rb. Where you expect someone to finish and where you would draft them do not always go hand in hand.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I'm sorry you feel this way. I believe that at year's end, Jackson will be the number 1 ranked running back. I think that he is getting better while I think we have seen the best out of Tomlinson. I think that Jackson's opportunities, schedule, offense, and talent will put him in a position to edge out Tomlinson in overall production.
BigRed
Footballguy
Backpedalling already?
"put him in a position to edge out" isn't quite the same as "he will beat out LT"And to say last year was LT's best isn't exactly a stretch. Anyway it could very well happen and ironically you didn't list what IMO is the most likely reason: age/mileage. Still, I'm just not seeing it this year.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Not much backpedaling in still saying "Jackson will be #1". 
Synthesizer
Footballguy
LT outscored SJ by over 130 pts in my league last year. Outscored him by 150 pts the year before. I expect more of that this year. Even taking into account their ages, there's no way trade LT straight-up for SJ.
Banger
Footballguy
While there's a good chance that LT won't be as good as he was last year, there's an equally good chance the SJax won't duplicate his near record breaking year either. I think this all boils down to how far people think LT will fall. I don't think he will score 31 tds' this year but there's no reason for a dramatic dropoff other than injury.
NoFBinLA
Moderator
Dude, I totally can't trust you - you're a Decepticon.Not much backpedaling in still saying "Jackson will be #1".
End tangent.I think it's entirely possible SJ finishes first. I don't think you could argue Sj is more reliable than LT2 - I think you could expect solid production from each, which can be said for the last few years.
I really like Jackson, and I have no opinion as to whether or not he'll finish above LT. How often does the #1 projected RB before the seaon actually finish #1?
They are ranked #1 & #2 overall. Personally, I'd take LT, but it's really splitting hairs. I think you can build a championship team around either player.
One thing I would like to point out though, is that I think the last four games of last season really skewed the perceived value of Jackson.
- Last season (total), Jackson averaged a TD every 27.25 touches.
- The last four games of last season, Jackson averaged a TD every 12.5 touches.
- The first twelve games of last season, Jackson averaged a TD once every 51.3 touches.
- In 2005, Jackson averaged a TD once every 33 touches.
- For his career as a starter (2005 & 2006), Jackson averages a TD every 28 touches.
You are projecting him to get 21 TDs next season on 420 touches (80 receptions). That's a TD once every 20 touches.
I'm not saying he can't do it, but I think it's going to be extremely tough for him to hit 150% on his career (and last seasons) scoring rate.
Like others have pointed out, the Rams aren't the Seahawks. They just don't feed it to their workhorse back inside the 10.
Also, 90 catches was a ton last season. The Rams got nothing out of the TE position, as well as the RB other than Jackson. In the offseason, they added Bennett (46 catches last season), McMichael (62 catches last season), and Brian Leonard (207 total catches in 4 years at Rutgers) while only subtracting Curtis (40 catches).
They are ranked #1 & #2 overall. Personally, I'd take LT, but it's really splitting hairs. I think you can build a championship team around either player.
One thing I would like to point out though, is that I think the last four games of last season really skewed the perceived value of Jackson.
- Last season (total), Jackson averaged a TD every 27.25 touches.
- The last four games of last season, Jackson averaged a TD every 12.5 touches.
- The first twelve games of last season, Jackson averaged a TD once every 51.3 touches.
- In 2005, Jackson averaged a TD once every 33 touches.
- For his career as a starter (2005 & 2006), Jackson averages a TD every 28 touches.
You are projecting him to get 21 TDs next season on 420 touches (80 receptions). That's a TD once every 20 touches.
I'm not saying he can't do it, but I think it's going to be extremely tough for him to hit 150% on his career (and last seasons) scoring rate.
Like others have pointed out, the Rams aren't the Seahawks. They just don't feed it to their workhorse back inside the 10.
Also, 90 catches was a ton last season. The Rams got nothing out of the TE position, as well as the RB other than Jackson. In the offseason, they added Bennett (46 catches last season), McMichael (62 catches last season), and Brian Leonard (207 total catches in 4 years at Rutgers) while only subtracting Curtis (40 catches).
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Ace Matherton
Footballguy
If you feel that strongly about Sjax it would still be better value to take LT #1 then trade him for SJ and an upgrade.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
FWIW
SJax led all RB's with 81.6% of his team's RB carries (LT was 9th at 66.7%).
LT was 3rd in the NFL in total catches for his team's RB's (73.7), while SJax was 4th (72.6)
SJax was 2nd in touches with 436. LT was 3rd with 404.
The big thing I see is that SD basically lost Keenan, but the rest of the O stayed about the same. STL, on the other hand, picked up Bennett, McMichael, and Leonard. To me, this looks like a recipe for another 400 touch season for LT, but a dropoff for SJax.
SJax led all RB's with 81.6% of his team's RB carries (LT was 9th at 66.7%).
LT was 3rd in the NFL in total catches for his team's RB's (73.7), while SJax was 4th (72.6)
SJax was 2nd in touches with 436. LT was 3rd with 404.
The big thing I see is that SD basically lost Keenan, but the rest of the O stayed about the same. STL, on the other hand, picked up Bennett, McMichael, and Leonard. To me, this looks like a recipe for another 400 touch season for LT, but a dropoff for SJax.
kris
Footballguy
I can't believe some of the sharks swallowed this.
Classic example of forcing the shock pick.
I love Jackson this year. I would be thrilled to have him. Is it possible he outscores Ladanian? Sure, its possible, but why risk the #1 pick for that small chance? Even if he does become fantasy king, its not like he would edge LT by buschels of points anyway.
It comes down to risk v reward and this ones not even close.
Not only has LT proven to be consistent during his career, but last season his production was very level. One sample stat is his best two games only accounted for 17.9% of his season's production. That is a rediculously low percentage. Jackson's best two accounted for 25% which is good, but nowhere near Ladanian's total.
Also, someone mentioned it earlier, what about the passing tds? Wouldn't that break up the convienent tie?
Another factor is LT has proven he avoids injuries. Steven Jackson has an upright running style and has only shown he can avoid injury for one full season.
Oh and the rookies on Denver containing LT by the end of the season is laughable.
"Don't know if you watched the offseason, but the Broncos brought in 3 excellent defensive linemen in the draft, as well as added Dre Bly.
Do I think 3 rookies are going to step in and immediately be able to handle LT? Not a chance. But I'd be willing to bet that by week 16, Moss, Crowder, and THomas are causing lots of trouble for the opposition. "
What makes you think 3 rookies and Dre Bly are going to make the difference when no one in the NFL can stop him?
I also don't see any compelling reason why Ladanian will get 11 TDs slashed out of his production. Even if that does happen, SJAX has to add 4 TDs to get there.
So many reasons for LT at #1 and against SJAX.
Anyway you look at it, SJAX #1 just doesn't add up.
Classic example of forcing the shock pick.
I love Jackson this year. I would be thrilled to have him. Is it possible he outscores Ladanian? Sure, its possible, but why risk the #1 pick for that small chance? Even if he does become fantasy king, its not like he would edge LT by buschels of points anyway.
It comes down to risk v reward and this ones not even close.
Not only has LT proven to be consistent during his career, but last season his production was very level. One sample stat is his best two games only accounted for 17.9% of his season's production. That is a rediculously low percentage. Jackson's best two accounted for 25% which is good, but nowhere near Ladanian's total.
Also, someone mentioned it earlier, what about the passing tds? Wouldn't that break up the convienent tie?
Another factor is LT has proven he avoids injuries. Steven Jackson has an upright running style and has only shown he can avoid injury for one full season.
Oh and the rookies on Denver containing LT by the end of the season is laughable.
"Don't know if you watched the offseason, but the Broncos brought in 3 excellent defensive linemen in the draft, as well as added Dre Bly.
Do I think 3 rookies are going to step in and immediately be able to handle LT? Not a chance. But I'd be willing to bet that by week 16, Moss, Crowder, and THomas are causing lots of trouble for the opposition. "
What makes you think 3 rookies and Dre Bly are going to make the difference when no one in the NFL can stop him?
I also don't see any compelling reason why Ladanian will get 11 TDs slashed out of his production. Even if that does happen, SJAX has to add 4 TDs to get there.
So many reasons for LT at #1 and against SJAX.
Anyway you look at it, SJAX #1 just doesn't add up.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Lt at #1 is fine. SJ at #1 is fine. The real issue is who do you take with your next two picks? I don't think anyone is going to lose their league based on the LT/SJ dilemma. But they could if they spend all their time on that issue and not enough in choosing who to surround him with.
FWIW, there's a cost to taking LT-- you really need to consider using a mid-round pick on Turner. With SJ, I don't think anyone fills in and puts up RB1 numbers. Turner could, and should. It's mitigated by LT's durability, but it's risky not to have that insurance for a RB.
FWIW, there's a cost to taking LT-- you really need to consider using a mid-round pick on Turner. With SJ, I don't think anyone fills in and puts up RB1 numbers. Turner could, and should. It's mitigated by LT's durability, but it's risky not to have that insurance for a RB.
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switz
Footballguy
SJAX has Leonard, Tomlinson has Turner.Problem is, SJAX couldn't better LT while being the ONLY option, nw he has competition not only from Leonard, but also McMichael stealing short receptions.SJax has nowhere to go but down. LT wa monster while sharing already. No reason to think he can't be #1 again.
PantherPower
Footballguy
Shhhh, don't tell anyone, but Clinton Portis will be the #1 RB in FF this year. 
