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Sleeper Team Defenses (1 Viewer)

Gr00vus

Footballguy
Alright, it's my yearly question:

For those of us who like to wait to the end of the draft (last or 2nd to last round) to take a defense (or those real risk takers who don't bother drafting one at all and pick one up off waivers before the 1st game), who are you targeting to be that defense? Asking this question last year directed me toward the Packers and Vikings - which really paid off.

To set the table lets take the "consensus" top 16 ADP defenses off the board (I hope I'm not giving away too much pay info here, but I need something to serve as a basis for discussion):

San Diego Chargers

Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots

Chicago Bears

Dallas Cowboys

Pittsburgh Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Giants

Green Bay Packers

Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee Titans

Buffalo Bills

Now your top 16 may look different, in terms of order and/or inclusion/exclusion, and it'd be interesting to hear your discussion of your differences with the above too.

For myself I think the Pats are overrated - they lost a couple of key players, and their already old core is yet another year older. I know they've got a good coaching staff, but I'm thinking they're going to give up much more in the way of yardage/points than people are expecting.

It also looks like the Seattle D is going to be on the field much more often than they've been accustomed to, which I think means they're being overrated as well.

I'm thinking the Redskins might be a good play - they have an ADP that would leave them undrafted in 12x18 leagues - however they're scheduled to play some tough offenses.

Denver is another one with a very low ADP that has received some higher "expert" rankings, but it looks like they might have a tough year on offense, particularly early in the season, and their defense wasn't that impressive last year.

Anyone think the Texans might be a real deep sleeper? Their schedule doesn't look too bad, I'd like to think they could improve on last season, but that would depend on some major improvements in the younger guys as they weren't that good of a unit last year.

Thought?

 
New Orleans

Added Ellis, Vilma, Porter and Gay

not the toughest schedule...

Sun 9/7 Tampa Bay 1:00 pm

Sun 9/14 at Washington 1:00 pm

Sun 9/21 at Denver 4:05 pm

Sun 9/28 San Francisco 1:00 pm

Mon 10/6 Minnesota 8:30 pm

Sun 10/12 Oakland 1:00 pm

Sun 10/19 at Carolina 1:00 pm

Sun 10/26 San Diego 1:00 pm

bye

Sun 11/9 at Atlanta 1:00 pm

Sun 11/16 at Kansas City 1:00 pm

Mon 11/24 Green Bay 8:30 pm

Sun 11/30 at Tampa Bay 1:00 pm

Sun 12/7 Atlanta 1:00 pm

Thu 12/11 at Chicago 8:15 pm

Sun 12/21 at Detroit 1:00 pm

Sun 12/28 Carolina 1:00 pm

 
I think the Buccaneers and Vikings are both going to have excellent Defenses. The Buccaneers have a great D consistently each year and the Vikings had the most turnovers on D last season. If you're lokking for sleeper D's, I think the Texans and Jets are your best bets.

 
New OrleansAdded Ellis, Vilma, Porter and Gaynot the toughest schedule...Sun 9/7 Tampa Bay 1:00 pm Sun 9/14 at Washington 1:00 pm Sun 9/21 at Denver 4:05 pm Sun 9/28 San Francisco 1:00 pm Mon 10/6 Minnesota 8:30 pm Sun 10/12 Oakland 1:00 pm Sun 10/19 at Carolina 1:00 pm Sun 10/26 San Diego 1:00 pm bye Sun 11/9 at Atlanta 1:00 pm Sun 11/16 at Kansas City 1:00 pm Mon 11/24 Green Bay 8:30 pm Sun 11/30 at Tampa Bay 1:00 pm Sun 12/7 Atlanta 1:00 pm Thu 12/11 at Chicago 8:15 pm Sun 12/21 at Detroit 1:00 pm Sun 12/28 Carolina 1:00 pm
They have what appears to be a great playoff schedule (weeks 14,15,16) too. I'd want to do something else the weeks they play San Diego and Green Bay, but other than that the schedule is nice. Of course, I tend to downplay SOS more than some heading in to the season - there's just too much change from year to year.
 
If you're lokking for sleeper D's, I think the Texans and Jets are your best bets.
I'd been thinking on the Jets too - the improvements they've made on offense should keep the defense off the field much moreso than last season, which can only help. Another year in the system, with accompanying player adjustments should help. I don't see a ton of playmakers on that unit however.
 
I'm targeting the Titans in all drafts; they get pressure on the QB (Vanden Bosch, Haynesworth & now Kearse again), solid secondary and Bulluck always seems to be getting TO's....best part of it all you can get them at the end of your draft.

 
Oakland. We'll see if they can stop the run or get any pressure on the qb but those defensive backs are going to get people some points for picks...

 
I'm targeting the Titans in all drafts; they get pressure on the QB (Vanden Bosch, Haynesworth & now Kearse again), solid secondary and Bulluck always seems to be getting TO's....best part of it all you can get them at the end of your draft.
I'd love to have the Titans as my D - they're right on the fringe of being rated top 16, inside the first 216 picks. I think that whole Titans squad is going to outperform people's expectations and make the playoffs again. I think they could finish 1st in their division this season in fact.You're killing if you get that D at the end of the draft. In my personal rankings they're defense 11 or 12 depending on how I feel about the Bears at the time.
 
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It depends on your scoring system - if you get points for turnovers & sacks, and there are no problems with allowing points or yards, teams who figure to be on the field a lot are good bets, and soem sleepers have improved.

For that, I like:

SF - bad offense which will throw a lot & yield 3 and outs.

Seattle - forces turnovers & offense is downgraded with WR injuries & RB ??

NO - vilma will be a big help.

 
I think it would depend on your scoring system. for example, I have Arizona (dynasty league)...in our scoring system, they finished fifth last year. Most lists I see them listed in the twenties, and not drafted at all. I think they have opportunity by playing in the NFC West. Could be a good team to match up with another Defense.

Up the middle, Arizona's defense is in pretty good shape. But a lack of talent and depth at cornerback and outside linebacker will cause some headaches in 2008. The Cardinals tried to address that problem by using their first two draft picks on defensive players in DB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and DL Calais Campbell. Last year, Arizona totaled 36 sacks, 25 fumble recoveries, 18 interceptions (six for touchdowns) and one punt return for a touchdown. With the mentality of two ex-Steelers coaches (Ken Whisenhunt, Russ Grimm) leading the way, expect Arizona to focus on becoming an even stronger defensive unit in 2008. It will help that they're playing in the weakish NFC West.
 
It depends on your scoring system - if you get points for turnovers & sacks, and there are no problems with allowing points or yards, teams who figure to be on the field a lot are good bets, and soem sleepers have improved.For that, I like:SF - bad offense which will throw a lot & yield 3 and outs.Seattle - forces turnovers & offense is downgraded with WR injuries & RB ??NO - vilma will be a big help.
Taking this a step further, and again assuming points and yards allowed aren't huge factors, then IMO the teams to look for are the ones with the explosive offenses that are going to get out to big leads and force their opponents to throw throw throw.More than just being on the field, being on the field when the other team is forced to pass is what to look for, since that leads to sacks and turnovers.Recently Indianapolis has been money in this regard. That 'D' racks up points in the second halves of games when their DLine can pin their ears back and go get the QB, and the secondary can sit back and look for picks.Obviously NE is in this class too, and I'd look at Dallas as another.
 
It depends on your scoring system - if you get points for turnovers & sacks, and there are no problems with allowing points or yards, teams who figure to be on the field a lot are good bets, and soem sleepers have improved.For that, I like:SF - bad offense which will throw a lot & yield 3 and outs.Seattle - forces turnovers & offense is downgraded with WR injuries & RB ??NO - vilma will be a big help.
Taking this a step further, and again assuming points and yards allowed aren't huge factors, then IMO the teams to look for are the ones with the explosive offenses that are going to get out to big leads and force their opponents to throw throw throw.More than just being on the field, being on the field when the other team is forced to pass is what to look for, since that leads to sacks and turnovers.Recently Indianapolis has been money in this regard. That 'D' racks up points in the second halves of games when their DLine can pin their ears back and go get the QB, and the secondary can sit back and look for picks.Obviously NE is in this class too, and I'd look at Dallas as another.
Those points are well taken, however the Colts, Patriots and Cowboys are very highly ranked defenses - they're not sleepers and won't be available at the end of drafts or on the waiver wire. The Saints D definitely fits the criteria though.
 
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I like Eagles defense this year, but I don't know much about their LBs.Can any Philly homers fill me in?
Stewart Bradley MLB - 2nd year player from Nebraska. Only played towards the end of the year (1 start) but made a couple of plays once he hit the field. Upside is borderline All-Pro, but it remains to be seen.Chris Gocong Strong Side OLB - 3rd year player from Division II Cal Poly, but missed his whole first year due to injury. Was a DE in college where he racked up a ton of sacks. Hasn't learned how to be a playmaker at the LB position yet, but hasn't been a liability as he learns the position and was good enough reason for them to let Takeo Spikes go.Omar Gaither Weak Side OLB - At 24 has most seniority on LB corps. His ability to play MLB was enough reason to let Jeremiah Trotter go (other than Trotter not being able to cover a dead log). Bradley's emergence lets him shift over to his more natural Weak Side spot. Is a solid, smart player but not a playmaker.So the LBs are very young but at least serviceable. If there's no progression, they are solid but unspectacular and could be a reason why the DST is worthless again for fantasy. The Eagles # of forced turnovers was pitiful last year and just adding Asante Samuel is not going to fix that. If Bradley becomes a poor man's Urlacher, and Gocong gets a green light to blitz a few times, it will help the DST points. And you'd hope DeSean Jackson cashes in a punt return for a nice bonus once in a while.Keep in mind Reid always undervalues LBs and will never draft one in the first two rounds. The key to the DST's success will be the DLine, which took a substantial hit now that Abiamiri is out long term. They have plenty of warm bodies at DE but Trent Cole has been the only dependable guy.
 
I'm targeting the Titans in all drafts; they get pressure on the QB (Vanden Bosch, Haynesworth & now Kearse again), solid secondary and Bulluck always seems to be getting TO's....best part of it all you can get them at the end of your draft.
Will Chris Johnson be the kick returner and punt returner?
 
I'm targeting the Titans in all drafts; they get pressure on the QB (Vanden Bosch, Haynesworth & now Kearse again), solid secondary and Bulluck always seems to be getting TO's....best part of it all you can get them at the end of your draft.
Will Chris Johnson be the kick returner and punt returner?
 
It depends on your scoring system - if you get points for turnovers & sacks, and there are no problems with allowing points or yards, teams who figure to be on the field a lot are good bets, and soem sleepers have improved.For that, I like:SF - bad offense which will throw a lot & yield 3 and outs.Seattle - forces turnovers & offense is downgraded with WR injuries & RB ??NO - vilma will be a big help.
Taking this a step further, and again assuming points and yards allowed aren't huge factors, then IMO the teams to look for are the ones with the explosive offenses that are going to get out to big leads and force their opponents to throw throw throw.More than just being on the field, being on the field when the other team is forced to pass is what to look for, since that leads to sacks and turnovers.Recently Indianapolis has been money in this regard. That 'D' racks up points in the second halves of games when their DLine can pin their ears back and go get the QB, and the secondary can sit back and look for picks.Obviously NE is in this class too, and I'd look at Dallas as another.
Those points are well taken, however the Colts, Patriots and Cowboys are very highly ranked defenses - they're not sleepers and won't be available at the end of drafts or on the waiver wire. The Saints D definitely fits the criteria though.
Fair enough. We could quibble about the semantics of "very highly ranked" (especially w/r/t Indy and their ADP of DT12), but I will say that your comments have landed the Saints D squarely on my radar.Heck, making Saints D and PK Taylor Mehlhaff your last two picks in a 16-rounder could work out splendidly on both fronts.
 
Based on the Jets schedule I think they will be better than their ADP.
Exactly. According to this website, the Jets have one of the easiest strength of schedules for a team defense and they have upgraded their defense significanly this offseason adding Kris Jenkins from Carolina, Calvin Pace from Arizona, drafting Vernon Gholston from Ohio St., David Harris who was unreal at MLB last year after the Vilma injury now will be starting from Day 1, they still have Darrell Revis and Kerry Rhodes in the secondary, etc.The Jets defense should be very good this season. :yes:
 
I'm targeting the Titans in all drafts; they get pressure on the QB (Vanden Bosch, Haynesworth & now Kearse again), solid secondary and Bulluck always seems to be getting TO's....best part of it all you can get them at the end of your draft.
I'd love to have the Titans as my D - they're right on the fringe of being rated top 16, inside the first 216 picks. I think that whole Titans squad is going to outperform people's expectations and make the playoffs again. I think they could finish 1st in their division this season in fact.You're killing if you get that D at the end of the draft. In my personal rankings they're defense 11 or 12 depending on how I feel about the Bears at the time.
I agree. In our scoring, they were a top 3 defense (weekly average) last year when you removed weeks 10-12, the weeks that Haynesworth was out. They were a completely different defense with him playing.
 
Arizona has a pretty cupcake schedule and thye will see St L and ATL who have challenges on the OL, a punchless Seattle team with all their WR injuries at the moment...have a feeling the Cards are going ot pay off several weeks.

 
Haven't had a chance to read every post, sorry if these have already been covered in depth. A few I've had my eye on...

New Orleans - Perfect storm of favorable matchups this year, esp. the fantasy playoffs. It all comes down to whether or not you believe they're a playoff team. I think they're a lock. In many scoring formats last year, every single playoff team finished inside the top 14 of fantasy defenses, with most bubble teams not far behind. Easy call considering they won't be drafted very high.

NYJ - Many of the same reasons as above. Based on schedule and talent, I already ranked them close to the top 12. If general consensus agrees that their offense will be much improved with Brett Favre at the helm, in addition to their other off-season acquisitions, I can easily see them as a top 12 D/ST this year.

Detroit - Hear me out. This all depends on league scoring. For example, in certain heavy performance based leagues with no penalties for 'points allowed', Detroit surprisingly finished well inside the top 10 last year. This seaon, I believe they'll actually have a better overall defensive unit on the field, with a more balanced offense IMO, and a better schedule (with the exception of a rough fantasy playoff stretch). Considering they'll likely be an undrafted D/ST, they're a great end-game target IMO.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Arizona has a pretty cupcake schedule and thye will see St L and ATL who have challenges on the OL, a punchless Seattle team with all their WR injuries at the moment...have a feeling the Cards are going ot pay off several weeks.
You forgot to mention they get 2 against SF as well - should be great for the sack totals and probably INTs too. I've been high on the Cards D in the past and they've really let me down, so I'm a bit leery of depending on them. I'll try and become more objective about them so as not to blind myself to potential opportunity.
 
grind said:
DaddyFatSacks said:
I'm targeting the Titans in all drafts; they get pressure on the QB (Vanden Bosch, Haynesworth & now Kearse again), solid secondary and Bulluck always seems to be getting TO's....best part of it all you can get them at the end of your draft.
Will Chris Johnson be the kick returner and punt returner?
Nope, they picked up Chris Carr in the off season. This is a nice upgrade over the carousel they worked with last year.
 
Baltimore...

Everyoens sleeping on them. Their key players were just injured last year. They have a cake schedule vs. so so offenses. BEST VALUE D.

 
Baltimore...Everyoens sleeping on them. Their key players were just injured last year. They have a cake schedule vs. so so offenses. BEST VALUE D.
Right now it looks like they're going in round 13, the 10th defense off the board. Not exactly sleeper material, though they may be value. Then again, unless Cameron works his magic, that defense could be on the field a looooooong time.
 
footballman_696969 said:
I like Eagles defense this year, but I don't know much about their LBs.Can any Philly homers fill me in?
Not a Philly homer. They are good from a points against standpoint, but generated very few turnovers last year.I believe it was a league worst 19. They don't have a huge threat on Special Teams either IIRC
 
New OrleansAdded Ellis, Vilma, Porter and Gaynot the toughest schedule...Sun 9/7 Tampa Bay 1:00 pm Sun 9/14 at Washington 1:00 pm Sun 9/21 at Denver 4:05 pm Sun 9/28 San Francisco 1:00 pm Mon 10/6 Minnesota 8:30 pm Sun 10/12 Oakland 1:00 pm Sun 10/19 at Carolina 1:00 pm Sun 10/26 San Diego 1:00 pm bye Sun 11/9 at Atlanta 1:00 pm Sun 11/16 at Kansas City 1:00 pm Mon 11/24 Green Bay 8:30 pm Sun 11/30 at Tampa Bay 1:00 pm Sun 12/7 Atlanta 1:00 pm Thu 12/11 at Chicago 8:15 pm Sun 12/21 at Detroit 1:00 pm Sun 12/28 Carolina 1:00 pm
Yeah, New Orleans defense could come in underrated at the start of the season...
 
Scoring for Defensive Categories

DFR - Defensive/ST Fumble Recovered (ID/DT/DST) 2 points

DTD - Total Defensive and Special Teams TD 6 points

Int - Interceptions 2 points

PA - Points Against, Total Points Scored 0 - 6 PA = 8 points

7 - 13 PA = 6 points

14 - 20 PA = 4 points

21 - 27 PA = 2 points

SACK - Sack 1 point

STY - Safety 2 points

YDS - Yards Allowed 0 - 49 YDSs = 12 points

50 - 99 YDSs = 10 points

100 - 149 YDSs = 8 points

150 - 199 YDSs = 6 points

200 - 249 YDSs = 4 points

250 - 299 YDSs = 2 points
Based on the above scoring...who would be your sleeper DST?
 
I'd go Oakland as a sleeper team defense as they have several things going for them...

1) Very strong running game to keep the defense off the field and opponent yardage/possession low.

2) Adding Hall and Wilson to the secondary should allow for more INTs by Asomugha who will get more passes thrown his way and Huff who has moved from string safety to free safety. Add Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison two very good coverage LBs (6 and 4 INTs respectively) and you have some big time play makers on D.

3) Getting Tommy Kelly back and signing Gibril Wilson should help with stuffing the run hopefully. If the Raiders can stop the run then teams will be forced to throw into their coverage.

That should be enough to put them into the top half of the league.

 
carolina and denver have some nice schedules . might be good fillers/ DEF #2 . carolina is home vs atlanta week 4 when seattle and new england have byes . i usually take new england or seattle as my 1 ...

 
Agree with earlier posters about Houston.

Front 4 are going to be VERY GOOD. Amobe in year two and Mario in year three. Plus the LB's are building in chemistry and continuity and then they added Adibi. The question mark here is obviously the secondary, but we saw last year how a great front 4 can make a bad secondary look average at worst (Superbowl Giants).

WT

 
:homer: alert....but...

I'm really starting to eyeball the BUCS D. Recent ADP shows them going off as the 13th defense drafted.

- Gaines Adams in his second year should build on his great 2nd half rookie season and get 12+ sacks

- Secondary depth with the additions of rookie Talib, 2nd year Piscatelli, and ex-Pat Eugene Wilson

- LBs are a year older and more experienced in Monte's system...Ruud, Quincy Black, and Cato June

- Offense looks more efficient...OL looks very good, QBs not making mistakes...remember the TOP in the SB run against Philly and Oakland?

I'd be pretty comfortable starting this D.

 
I'm not liking what I'm seeing from NO. Sometimes a defense is so bad that their schedule doesn't matter - they're the punching bag for everyone regardless of how good their offense is. Those DBs stink out loud. I think I'll be steering clear.

 
Oakland. We'll see if they can stop the run or get any pressure on the qb but those defensive backs are going to get people some points for picks...
I've been targeting the Raiders D in every league I'm in. I don't care if they stop the run or not (I'm guessing they will). This team is going to blitz blitz blitz. They will probably give up some big plays and points because of it, but it will pay off huge in some leagues when they make big plays. With the athletes they have roaming the secondary I'm expected at least 7 DST TDs this season. Yeah, seven!
 
If you want to pick up 2 sleeper defenses late that have nice matchups- Raiders & Saints

OAK NO

DEN 1 TB

@KC 2 @WAS

@BUF 3 @DEN

SD 4 SF

BYE 5 MIN

@NO 6 OAK

NYJ 7 @CAR

@BAL 8 SD

ATL 9 BYE

CAR 10 @ATL

@MIA 11 @KC

@DEN 12 GB

KC 13 @TB

@SD 14 ATL

NE 15 @CHI

HOU 16 @DET

 

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