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So Trump is going to gut Social Security right? (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Sabertooth

Footballguy
I was having a retirement discussion with one of my Trump supporter friends and sdsicussing how it's about to be gutted.  He said well you better work two jobs I guess.  Like it's inevitable that it's going to be gutted.  Is that true?

How can this be?  Nobody gets around paying it.  It's a special thing on everyone's paycheck.  How is it in trouble and how can it be saved?  Is it a lost cause?

 
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What is actually going on with it that it's in such trouble?  Obviously there is a 0% chance of that happening Spock.  I know the gist of it, but I'd like one of the smarter posters to break down why it's in trouble and what can be done to save it.  

 
The baby generation is larger than the generation behind them, which means they will take more from SS than what is being contributed by the workforce. There is a SS surplus for just this reason, but because of the size of the baby boom generation, the surplus will be depleted around 2030. The baby boomers will die off, so the solution just needs additional funds from 2030 until they die off. So we're not talking about a large chunk of time here. Simply raising the max income that SS can tax produces the necessary funds to purge the baby boomers successfully. So yes, there is a problem, but it's not the "sky is falling" problem those against SS make it out to be. You don't have to be "one of the smarter posters" to understand it. It is pretty simple. 

 
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Politician Spock said:
The baby generation is larger than the generation behind them, which means they will take more from SS than what is being contributed by the workforce. There is a SS surplus for just this reason, but because of the size of the baby boom generation, the surplus will be depleted around 2030. The baby boomers will die off, so the solution just needs additional funds from 2030 until they die off. So we're not talking about a large chunk of time here. Simply raising the max income that SS can tax produces the necessary funds to purge the baby boomers successfully. So yes, there is a problem, but it's not the "sky is falling" problem those against SS make it out to be. You don't have to be "one of the smarter posters" to understand it. It's is pretty simple. 
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Ok, good because I'm not.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
6.2% to 118k is more than enough from me. 
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Actually it's 12.4% as your employer has to pay an additional 6.2% for what they pay you that does not show up on your pay statement. Which is probably how they will increase it. You employer will probably pay 6.2% up to $150K or maybe even $200k, while what comes out of your side of your pay continues to be cut off at $118K (ignoring the annual increases). It's still the same increase burden to society as it's an additional cost to your employer to pay more tax on what they are paying you, but because people won't see an increase on their pay statements, the backlash will be minimal. It will be similar to recent economic stimuluses where the employee side of SS was reduced for a year. People saw they were paying significantly less in SS tax, but their employer was still paying 6.2% that they never saw.

 
Sabertooth said:
What is actually going on with it that it's in such trouble?  Obviously there is a 0% chance of that happening Spock.  I know the gist of it, but I'd like one of the smarter posters to break down why it's in trouble and what can be done to save it.  
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Baby boomers caused a population spike and people are living longer.

 
Sabertooth said:
I was having a retirement discussion with one of my Trump supporter friends and sdsicussing how it's about to be gutted.  He said well you better work two jobs I guess.  Like it's inevitable that it's going to be gutted.  Is that true?

How can this be?  Nobody gets around paying it.  It's a special thing on everyone's paycheck.  How is it in trouble and how can it be saved?  Is it a lost cause?
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Is this his idea of making America great again? There is a proposal in the House right now to reduce SS benefits to current and upcoming beneficiaries, that have paid in the system their whole life. It's disgusting, and Trump would certainly sign it.

Most, obviously not all, seem willing to remove the threshold of $118K, the level of which is a joke, in order to help keep the program solvent. I would consider it as my fair share, so that current and future beneficiaries can be covered. The program is completely solvent through 2030 if I recall correctly, at which point if they do nothing benefits will be reduced to 75% or so of current levels.

So can it be saved, yes. Is the Trump way of cutting benefits to current seniors and you having to work two jobs the answer? Heck no. 

 
Skoo said:
LOL

The all-purpose Conservative solution.
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sorry.  while growing up, I watched several of my close family members spend insane money on pointless ####, and now I (in my mid 20s) have close family members asking me to send them money every month so they can buy basic things to survive.

it's not about politics for me.

 
Peyton Marino said:
sorry.  while growing up, I watched several of my close family members spend insane money on pointless ####, and now I (in my mid 20s) have close family members asking me to send them money every month so they can buy basic things to survive.

it's not about politics for me.
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So you have a stupid family, please don't let that dictate domestic policy.

 
toshiba said:
So you have a stupid family, please don't let that dictate domestic policy.
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fair point re: anecdotal evidence, but are you really going to say this doesn't apply to a significant portion of the population?

additionally, please show me specifically where I made a policy recommendation.

 
Sabertooth said:
That's kind of my thought.  It's a nice catch all though.  Maybe people living paycheck to paycheck should be saving money instead of wasting it on a phone or fancy food! 
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It's not just that, but apparently the SS Disability has become the de facto long term unemployment insurance in much of Appalachia and other places.  It's sort of staggering really.  Close to 20% of the working-age population is claiming it.  If you're looking for a program being misused, here's one.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-12-16/mapping-the-growth-of-disability-claims-in-america

 
The main problem with SS is when they(government-LBJ ?) took the money out of a separate account to use for government business with the idea they would pay it back.  If money put into SS stayed in a separate account from way back when there wouldn't be a problem.   Some smart guys here can figure out how much an individual account with over 45 years of paying in would be worth today with interest.  It's staggering.

Good idea f  upped by the usual suspects.   They like playing with your money & usually to your detriment.

 
Peyton Marino said:
fair point re: anecdotal evidence, but are you really going to say this doesn't apply to a significant portion of the population?

additionally, please show me specifically where I made a policy recommendation.
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How can people who don't have money spend nonexistent dollars unwisely? You people have such an uncharitable mental approach to anyone less fortunate than yourselves.

 
Step one is raising the age you're eligible to start taking benefits. People are living a little long now and are healthier in their elder years. They can keep working. 

And yes, the cap should be raised a little bit on the higher income people (not unlimited though).

 
Social Security was was always designed to pay out roughly what it collected in benefits. It's income distribution, not savings.

The SSTF surplus was set up in the 80s under Reagan based on recommendations of the Greenspan commission to pad the system for the coming Baby Boom generation. 

I think it's really unlikely Republicans will get anything done with SS unless it's part of a large compromise agreement. It won't make it through the Senate otherwise.

 
ChopMeat said:
How can people who don't have money spend nonexistent dollars unwisely? You people have such an uncharitable mental approach to anyone less fortunate than yourselves.
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:lmao:  why are you getting so mad?  is suggesting that people save more of their money crazy?  of course some folks live truly paycheck to paycheck and will not be able to save money.  this is not who I'm talking about and this number is probably a smaller proportion of the populace than you think.

i'm glad you were able to categorize me into whatever group "you people" is referring to after only three posts.

 
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Peyton Marino said:
:lmao:  why are you getting so mad?  is suggesting that people save more of their money crazy?  of course some folks live truly paycheck to paycheck and will not be able to save money.  this is not who I'm talking about and this number is probably a smaller proportion of the populace than you think.

i'm glad you were able to categorize me into whatever group "you people" is referring to after only three posts.
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I wouldn't say I'm mad, moreso tired of people who chalk poor people as irresponsible. It seems to be rampant on this board.

 
Slapdash said:
If by simple you mean: never going to happen while our government is run for the benefit of the wealthy
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The wealthy who control the two parties don't really care much at all about social security tax. It's a drop in the bucket to them. 

Now if we are talking increasing capital gains taxes, yeah I agree, that's never going to happen while our government is run by the two parties they own.

 
I would say that the Republican (Ryan) proposals coupled with the appointment of Mick Mulvaney signals that, yes, there will likely be substantial cuts to Social Security and Medicare coming.

 
Politician Spock said:
The solution is to simply raise the maximum amount of income the SS can tax. Less than 10% of society would be affected by this. 
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Hey, if doesn't affect me I am all for it.  Perhaps anyone married to an offdee 10 should have to let 5 random guys bang their wife per year to improve morale.  Less than 10% of people would be affected.

Better yet, privatize social security so government doesn't try and screw you out of your retirement savings like Spock would try and do.

 
Don't Noonan said:
Hey, if doesn't affect me I am all for it.  Perhaps anyone married to an offdee 10 should have to let 5 random guys bang their wife per year to improve morale.  Less than 10% of people would be affected.

Better yet, privatize social security so government doesn't try and screw you out of your retirement savings like Spock would try and do.
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SS isn't retirement savings. It's a social safety net. 

 
Sammy3469 said:
It's not just that, but apparently the SS Disability has become the de facto long term unemployment insurance in much of Appalachia and other places.  It's sort of staggering really.  Close to 20% of the working-age population is claiming it.  If you're looking for a program being misused, here's one.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-12-16/mapping-the-growth-of-disability-claims-in-america
Click to expand...
Basic Income Guarantee can't come soon enough.   

 
Sammy3469 said:
It's not just that, but apparently the SS Disability has become the de facto long term unemployment insurance in much of Appalachia and other places.  It's sort of staggering really.  Close to 20% of the working-age population is claiming it.  If you're looking for a program being misused, here's one.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-12-16/mapping-the-growth-of-disability-claims-in-america
Click to expand...
Wait, sorry - you're pointing to the fact that a huge number of workers in coal country are on disability as evidence that it's being misused?

 
Sammy3469 said:
It's not just that, but apparently the SS Disability has become the de facto long term unemployment insurance in much of Appalachia and other places.  It's sort of staggering really.  Close to 20% of the working-age population is claiming it.  If you're looking for a program being misused, here's one.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-12-16/mapping-the-growth-of-disability-claims-in-america
Click to expand...
If we cut off these payments, then the people in these places would just need another form of income redistribution.  This has really become the primary way to compensate the losers in globalization and automation. 

In a 2013 paper, David Autor, an economist at MIT, and his co-authors wrote that Social Security disability insurance was the single biggest source of federal transfers into areas that had been directly affected by trade with China and Mexico.
Click to expand...

 
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irishidiot said:
The main problem with SS is when they(government-LBJ ?) took the money out of a separate account to use for government business with the idea they would pay it back.  If money put into SS stayed in a separate account from way back when there wouldn't be a problem.   Some smart guys here can figure out how much an individual account with over 45 years of paying in would be worth today with interest.  It's staggering.

Good idea f  upped by the usual suspects.   They like playing with your money & usually to your detriment.
Click to expand...
http://www.snopes.com/politics/socialsecurity/changes.asp

 
Henry Ford said:
Wait, sorry - you're pointing to the fact that a huge number of workers in coal country are on disability as evidence that it's being misused?
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Misused is the wrong term, but when people have to go to this lengths to get into the safety net, something wrong is with the federal and state governments that administer these programs.  

 
Sammy3469 said:
Misused is the wrong term, but when people have to go to this lengths to get into the safety net, something wrong is with the federal and state governments that administer these programs.  
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Jobs.  Jobs are the problem.

Disability is set up so that if someone has a disabling injury and cannot find work in the area doing something he/she is able to do with the disability, he/she is disabled.  So if someone is able to work in a call center, or scanning files because of a loss of mobility, but there are no call center or file scanning jobs in the area, he/she is effectively disabled.  If you have COPD from black lung, you could probably do some of those things.  But those jobs don't exist in rural West Virginia.  And why not?  Is it cheaper to run a call center in NYC than in West Virginia?  I bet it isn't. This is the kind of thing that national policy can help with.  

 
Henry Ford said:
Jobs.  Jobs are the problem.

Disability is set up so that if someone has a disabling injury and cannot find work in the area doing something he/she is able to do with the disability, he/she is disabled.  So if someone is able to work in a call center, or scanning files because of a loss of mobility, but there are no call center or file scanning jobs in the area, he/she is effectively disabled.  If you have COPD from black lung, you could probably do some of those things.  But those jobs don't exist in rural West Virginia.  And why not?  Is it cheaper to run a call center in NYC than in West Virginia?  I bet it isn't. This is the kind of thing that national policy can help with.  
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Look at the link when breaking down claims by diagnosis though. It's not a bunch of coal miners with the black lung. It's 'connective tissue' i.e. Back pain, joint pain etc that have skyrocketed. You know, the kind that's a bit easier to fudge. 

 
mr roboto said:
Look at the link when breaking down claims by diagnosis though. It's not a bunch of coal miners with the black lung. It's 'connective tissue' i.e. Back pain, joint pain etc that have skyrocketed. You know, the kind that's a bit easier to fudge. 
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1. The kind that's easier to do sedentary work than manual labor;

2. Have you ever filed for disability based on connective tissue issues?  Calling it easier to fudge is a big red flag to me that you don't have much experience in this area, though I've certainly been wrong before.

 
Henry Ford said:
Jobs.  Jobs are the problem.

Disability is set up so that if someone has a disabling injury and cannot find work in the area doing something he/she is able to do with the disability, he/she is disabled.  So if someone is able to work in a call center, or scanning files because of a loss of mobility, but there are no call center or file scanning jobs in the area, he/she is effectively disabled.  If you have COPD from black lung, you could probably do some of those things.  But those jobs don't exist in rural West Virginia.  And why not?  Is it cheaper to run a call center in NYC than in West Virginia?  I bet it isn't. This is the kind of thing that national policy can help with.  
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Exactly, it's not. But it's also cheaper to run a call center in the Philippines or Mexico. Cheaper still to have customers answer their own questions via the internet or intelligent IVR, which is where most of those jobs are going to go in the next 5-10 years. So it's jobs and demand for labor. 

 
Henry Ford said:
Jobs.  Jobs are the problem.

Disability is set up so that if someone has a disabling injury and cannot find work in the area doing something he/she is able to do with the disability, he/she is disabled.  So if someone is able to work in a call center, or scanning files because of a loss of mobility, but there are no call center or file scanning jobs in the area, he/she is effectively disabled.  If you have COPD from black lung, you could probably do some of those things.  But those jobs don't exist in rural West Virginia.  And why not?  Is it cheaper to run a call center in NYC than in West Virginia?  I bet it isn't. This is the kind of thing that national policy can help with.  
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FWIW, I do think "jobs" is a somewhat flippant answer in this case especially "call centers" as they generally are in medium-sized non-Northeast cities (think Utah, SD, TX, AZ, FL, SC, KY) anyway.  You still need the infrastructure and an educated work-force for the efficiency.  Can a national policy help, sure, there's a discrete number of these type of jobs and most of the locales that would lose their jobs if the call center would relocate would be in similar straights.       

 
Henry Ford said:
1. The kind that's easier to do sedentary work than manual labor;

2. Have you ever filed for disability based on connective tissue issues?  Calling it easier to fudge is a big red flag to me that you don't have much experience in this area, though I've certainly been wrong before.
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No, I haven't. But I know you work in this area. I also know you've posted at least one example of 'back pain' being abused. 

I agree that the manufacturing and mining centers of this country often don't have enough decent-paying service jobs for laid off workers to transition to. But we are either twice as unfit to work as we were a few decades ago or some non-trivial portion of the rise in disability benefit claims is due to abuse. 

 
Sammy3469 said:
FWIW, I do think "jobs" is a somewhat flippant answer in this case especially "call centers" as they generally are in medium-sized non-Northeast cities (think Utah, SD, TX, AZ, FL, SC, KY) anyway.  You still need the infrastructure and an educated work-force for the efficiency.  Can a national policy help, sure, there's a discrete number of these type of jobs and most of the locales that would lose their jobs if the call center would relocate would be in similar straights.       
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I don't really know why "jobs" is a flippant answer.  Sure, you need infrastructure and education to an extent, and "call center" is just an example, but there are many types of jobs that could be relocated to West Virginia, or rural Kentucky, in the way that factory jobs and coal jobs used to happen there.  A mine moves out and a data center moves in and everyone is still employable. There are many types of jobs that can substitute for "call center."

 
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