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So who is breaking out this year? (1 Viewer)

Aaron Hill had a .196 batting average on balls in play. From ESPN:

To put that in perspective, that was almost 100 points below his career mark and 30 points below the next-lowest mark in the majors.
There aren't many 2B who can hit 25 HR's. If his BABIP returns to normal, he should be a steal.
 
Aaron Hill had a .196 batting average on balls in play. From ESPN:

To put that in perspective, that was almost 100 points below his career mark and 30 points below the next-lowest mark in the majors.
There aren't many 2B who can hit 25 HR's. If his BABIP returns to normal, he should be a steal.
He's looked good in spring but his line drive % was something like 9% last year because he tried to hit every pitch out of the park and popped out to the shortstop twice a game. As long as he drives the ball more he'll be fine, but his BABIP wasn't really that unlucky last season.ETA:

http://bjays.wordpress.com/2011/03/03/an-open-letter-to-espn-about-babip/

Last year, BABIP was everywhere in the discussion about David Ortiz’s early struggles, which were obviously the result of mechanical difficulties and not luck. This year, batter BABIP is continuing to bloom — I’ve seen at least a dozen snippets like this one about Aaron Hill (Carlos Quentin is another good one).

Think you’re unlucky? Even though Hill hit 26 homers in 2010, his batting average plummeted to .205 thanks to a .196 batting average on balls in play. To put that in perspective, that was almost 100 points below his career mark and 30 points below the next-lowest mark in the majors. That’s unlucky. Also consider that Hill’s strikeout rate held steady and that his walk rate improved, and it jibes with the scouting that says Hill hit the ball hard right at a lot of people for much of the year.

I’d like a word or two with some of these scouts, because anyone who watched the Jays last year knows that Hill wasn’t getting unlucky in the slightest. His contact SUCKED. His whole season was one weak pop-up, head down, jog to first after the other. Hill looked like a completely different hitter, his beautiful compact line drive swing gone long and loopy – and a little deeper delving into the numbers agrees: his fly ball rate soared from his terrific 2009 (41.0), past his career average (41.4), to insane heights (54.2). His line drive rate also fell from 2009 (19.6) past his career average (18.5) to untold depths (10.6). His infield fly percentage (one of my favorites because it’s a 100% guaranteed out – like a hidden strikeout, but still included as a ball in play) rose from 11.6 to 12.9. Spraying balls like this will clearly and provably lead to a consistently much lower BABIP. And so the numbers actually overwhelmingly agree with what the old-timers would say: Hill’s swing went to hell last year. Luck had nothing to do with it.
 
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Adam Jones - Believe
Why? I drafted the guy but already regret it. The guy has limited plate discipline and I just don't understand the hype. He's probably going to be amongst the first few cuts on my team.
Hype? I thought it's been relatively quiet. I got him in two drafts right where I wanted him. He's young and he's got a pedigree. It's not like it's undeserved. Sometimes it takes a few years for it to click. Look at Rasmus and Bruce. They're not all Ryan Brauns.
 
Anybody think Matt LaPorta can get it done this year?

He was banged up all last year, but still showed a touch of power. We all know what a stud he was in the minors.

 
Adam Jones - Believe
Why? I drafted the guy but already regret it. The guy has limited plate discipline and I just don't understand the hype. He's probably going to be amongst the first few cuts on my team.
Guys has had two pretty decent seasons before the age of 25. Sure he needs to walk more....but Showalter has made him a pet project and that should help.
He has awful plate discipline and I don't see him as having enough power to compensate for what will be a mediocre obp. I think this guy is what we've seen. Which is not bad but I don't see a next step coming from this kid.

 
Adam Jones - Believe
Why? I drafted the guy but already regret it. The guy has limited plate discipline and I just don't understand the hype. He's probably going to be amongst the first few cuts on my team.
Guys has had two pretty decent seasons before the age of 25. Sure he needs to walk more....but Showalter has made him a pet project and that should help.
He has awful plate discipline and I don't see him as having enough power to compensate for what will be a mediocre obp. I think this guy is what we've seen. Which is not bad but I don't see a next step coming from this kid.
Yeah I dont get the love for him either. He doesnt even steal bases
 
I

Not really a "breakout" candidate but does anyone else like Posada as a late grab for C? He's going to pretty much full time DH for the yankees yet he's got C eligibility in Yahoo leagues. I've gotta think his hitting picks up a bit without behind the plate duty. Thoughts?
Bat was looking slow last year. My guess is he'll have one of those seasons older sluggers have near the end.....25-30 hr but hits .230
:eek: He hasnt hit >25 HRs since 2003.
I'm more interested in his slg % and he's posted a couple fine slg seasons lately before last year. If in fact he's healthy and not catching he could easily hit 25. The batting average will be another matter. He's been at 18-23 each year and had 22 in 383 ab's in 2009. Hardly makes 25 plus a reach.
:coffee:
 
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'Bamboo Bill said:
WW gems....any SD starter when pitching at Petco.
Harang is an interesting option this year. His peripherals were always decent, but extreme flyball pitchers just dont do well in Cinci. If Petco can contain him, he could be a decent sleeper.
The only problem with these guys...good luck getting wins. This team will not score many runs.
:coffee:
First, its week 2.Second, the team is 4-5. 3 of their 4 wins are by starting pitchers.
 
Alex Gordon - if I find myself at the end of the draft with a dollar in my pocket, I will undoubtedly take a flier once again. such a premier prospect who consistently pummels minor league pitching just cant be this bad. its rumored that other teams are asking about him, so a return to 3B isnt out of the question (Philly anyone?).
Good call on Gordon. I own him in every league (believer) and he's absolutely raking so far. The move to the #3 spot in the line-up, and probably more notably hitting in front of Butler, has really paid off.
 
WW gems....any SD starter when pitching at Petco.
Harang is an interesting option this year. His peripherals were always decent, but extreme flyball pitchers just dont do well in Cinci. If Petco can contain him, he could be a decent sleeper.
The only problem with these guys...good luck getting wins. This team will not score many runs.
:coffee:
First, its week 2.Second, the team is 4-5. 3 of their 4 wins are by starting pitchers.
update?
 
WW gems....any SD starter when pitching at Petco.
Harang is an interesting option this year. His peripherals were always decent, but extreme flyball pitchers just dont do well in Cinci. If Petco can contain him, he could be a decent sleeper.
The only problem with these guys...good luck getting wins. This team will not score many runs.
:coffee:
First, its week 2.Second, the team is 4-5. 3 of their 4 wins are by starting pitchers.
update?
Its week 3.
 
WW gems....any SD starter when pitching at Petco.
Harang is an interesting option this year. His peripherals were always decent, but extreme flyball pitchers just dont do well in Cinci. If Petco can contain him, he could be a decent sleeper.
The only problem with these guys...good luck getting wins. This team will not score many runs.
:coffee:
First, its week 2.Second, the team is 4-5. 3 of their 4 wins are by starting pitchers.
update?
Its week 3.
:coffee:
 
Seth Smith or Ryan Roberts.Either of these guys at least somewhat for real?
Seth Smith has always raked against RHP and at Coors. If you can platoon him he's definitely worth having. I wouldn't expect a full-fledged breakout though.As for Roberts, I don't like to totally write off a guy hitting like that but there's little in his history that would suggest this is more than a fluke.
 
I picked up Roberts a few days ago. Another HR today.

How the hell does Gibson play Melvin Mora at all? The guy is almost 40 and hasn't been good since 2004, yet somehow he has taken AB's away from Roberts. :loco:

 
'rascal said:
Would you drop Edwin Jackson for Chris Young (SP-Mets)?
Yes, but there are probably better than Young available.....Tyson Ross, OaklandVance Worley, PhillyDustin Moseley, San Diego
 
'rascal said:
Would you drop Edwin Jackson for Chris Young (SP-Mets)?
Yes, but there are probably better than Young available.....Tyson Ross, OaklandVance Worley, PhillyDustin Moseley, San Diego
None of those options are better than a healthy Chris Young.Ross and Worley are unknown entities and both are nothing but replacements for injured players (Braden and Blanton respectively). Moseley's an intriguing option, but if you're looking for anything outside of ERA and WHIP, he's useless. And the ERA / WHIP have to start ballooning soon.
 
'rascal said:
Would you drop Edwin Jackson for Chris Young (SP-Mets)?
Yes, but there are probably better than Young available.....Tyson Ross, OaklandVance Worley, PhillyDustin Moseley, San Diego
None of those options are better than a healthy Chris Young.Ross and Worley are unknown entities and both are nothing but replacements for injured players (Braden and Blanton respectively). Moseley's an intriguing option, but if you're looking for anything outside of ERA and WHIP, he's useless. And the ERA / WHIP have to start ballooning soon.
Not to mention they also aren't any better options than Edwin Jackson. :unsure:
 
'rascal said:
Would you drop Edwin Jackson for Chris Young (SP-Mets)?
Yes, but there are probably better than Young available.....Tyson Ross, OaklandVance Worley, PhillyDustin Moseley, San Diego
None of those options are better than a healthy Chris Young.Ross and Worley are unknown entities and both are nothing but replacements for injured players (Braden and Blanton respectively). Moseley's an intriguing option, but if you're looking for anything outside of ERA and WHIP, he's useless. And the ERA / WHIP have to start ballooning soon.
I like the ballpark for young but not the injury history. Edwin is at least pitching for a contract so he's go a roster leash for me of at least 4 more starts. But his next turn in the rotation will be on the bench for me until I see anything come to life with him.
 
'rascal said:
Would you drop Edwin Jackson for Chris Young (SP-Mets)?
Yes, but there are probably better than Young available.....Tyson Ross, OaklandVance Worley, PhillyDustin Moseley, San Diego
None of those options are better than a healthy Chris Young.Ross and Worley are unknown entities and both are nothing but replacements for injured players (Braden and Blanton respectively). Moseley's an intriguing option, but if you're looking for anything outside of ERA and WHIP, he's useless. And the ERA / WHIP have to start ballooning soon.
I like the ballpark for young but not the injury history. Edwin is at least pitching for a contract so he's go a roster leash for me of at least 4 more starts. But his next turn in the rotation will be on the bench for me until I see anything come to life with him.
Of the five, I'd stick with Jackson. If your rosters are big enough to spot start Young or Moseley at home only, they're worth considering if you're fed up with the Edwin Jackson rollercoaster. I don't think Ross or Worley are anything special.
 
For these desperate for 3B help, Ian Stewart was recalled from AAA. As a Pablo owner I'm currently stuck on deciding to pick him up or forfeit that position till Lowrie gets 3B eligiblity (one more start).

 
Francour deserves to be on the list.
He's not walking any more than normal. His BABIP is somewhat elevated. He's actually hitting less flyballs than normal. The difference is his flyballs are leaving the park at twice his career rate. This has fluke written all over it.
 
Francour deserves to be on the list.
He's not walking any more than normal. His BABIP is somewhat elevated. He's actually hitting less flyballs than normal. The difference is his flyballs are leaving the park at twice his career rate. This has fluke written all over it.
So you're not buying the "refined hitting approach" explanation?
To some, Royals OF Jeff Francoeur's hot start is little more than the product of a small sample size, but according to hitting coach Kevin Seizter, it's the result of hard work and an open mind. “His best days are ahead of him,' Seizer told FOXSports.com. 'He was another rebuilding project. From a mechanical standpoint, it happened much quicker than it did with Alex [Gordon]. The biggest thing has been his approach. It was pretty neat. The day I met him, he said, ‘I want you to know, I've done my homework on you, made calls to people who have worked with you. Whatever you want me to do, I'll do. I'm yours.' That's what music to my ears.” Francoeur is currently riding a 14-game hitting streak during which he's batting .365 (19 for 52) with three home runs.
 

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