Last year, BABIP was everywhere in the discussion about David Ortiz’s early struggles, which were obviously the result of mechanical difficulties and not luck. This year, batter BABIP is continuing to bloom — I’ve seen at least a dozen snippets like this one about Aaron Hill (Carlos Quentin is another good one).
Think you’re unlucky? Even though Hill hit 26 homers in 2010, his batting average plummeted to .205 thanks to a .196 batting average on balls in play. To put that in perspective, that was almost 100 points below his career mark and 30 points below the next-lowest mark in the majors. That’s unlucky. Also consider that Hill’s strikeout rate held steady and that his walk rate improved, and it jibes with the scouting that says Hill hit the ball hard right at a lot of people for much of the year.
I’d like a word or two with some of these scouts, because anyone who watched the Jays last year knows that Hill wasn’t getting unlucky in the slightest. His contact SUCKED. His whole season was one weak pop-up, head down, jog to first after the other. Hill looked like a completely different hitter, his beautiful compact line drive swing gone long and loopy – and a little deeper delving into the numbers agrees: his fly ball rate soared from his terrific 2009 (41.0), past his career average (41.4), to insane heights (54.2). His line drive rate also fell from 2009 (19.6) past his career average (18.5) to untold depths (10.6). His infield fly percentage (one of my favorites because it’s a 100% guaranteed out – like a hidden strikeout, but still included as a ball in play) rose from 11.6 to 12.9. Spraying balls like this will clearly and provably lead to a consistently much lower BABIP. And so the numbers actually overwhelmingly agree with what the old-timers would say: Hill’s swing went to hell last year. Luck had nothing to do with it.