"Solidifying" the O-Line (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

Everyone is in love with Gore this year, in large part because the 49ers used two first round picks on the OL. Is this a guarantee of success? I know a lot of OL picks flame out as busts, so while it seems a good reason for optimism, I'm interested in getting opinions as to whether it really translates into better results for the team's rushing stats. The best comparison I can think of is the Jags using two early picks on OL in the '09 draft, and MJD did appear to benefit. Are there any other examples of this out there?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Since the NFL merger, a team has drafted multiple offensive lineman in the draft's first 40 picks 19 times. Here is how those team's rushing statistics changed the first 18 times (note that for the 1983 teams, I pro-rated their 1982 numbers to a 16-game season; I didn't do so for 1987 since there was also a team in 1988 on the list):

Year Tm N-1RYD N-1RTD N-1YPC N RYD N RTD N YPC OL 1 OL 22009 JAX 1774 17 4.2 2029 19 4.5 Eugene Monroe Eben Britton2006 NYJ 1328 10 3.5 1738 15 3.5 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Nick Mangold1995 JAX ---- -- -- 1705 9 4.2 Tony Boselli Brian DeMarco1993 PHO 1491 11 3.8 1809 12 4.0 Ernest Dye Ben Coleman1990 MIA 1330 10 3.3 1535 13 3.7 Richmond Webb Keith Sims1988 NYG 1457 4 3.3 1689 15 3.4 Eric Moore Jumbo Elliott1987 SFO 1986 16 3.9 2237 11 4.3 Harris Barton Jeff Bregel1985 DET 2017 13 4.5 1538 13 3.4 Lomas Brown Kevin Glover1983 DEN 1810 11 4.0 1784 15 3.8 Chris Hinton Mark Cooper1983 HOU 1420 9 3.6 1998 16 4.0 Bruce Matthews Harvey Salem1977 ATL 1689 10 3.6 1890 9 3.2 Warren Bryant R.C. Thielemann1977 HOU 1498 6 3.6 1989 15 3.9 Morris Towns George Reihner1977 SEA 1416 14 3.8 1964 12 4.3 Steve August Tom Lynch1975 NOR 1983 9 3.9 1642 9 3.5 Kurt Schumacher Lee Gross1975 RAM 2125 16 3.8 2371 18 4.1 Dennis Harrah Doug France1974 NYG 1478 11 3.2 1496 11 3.4 John Hicks Tom Mullen1973 BUF 2132 11 4.2 3088 20 5.1 Joe DeLamielleure Jeff Winans1973 PHI 1393 2 3.5 1791 9 4.3 Jerry Sisemore Guy MorrissAverage 1666 10.6 3.7 1917 13.6 3.9
Buffalo made by far the biggest improvement. For the Bills, they had taken All-Pro left guard in the 2nd round of the '72 draft, and also took two starting OL in the 1971 draft. That all came together in '73, when those players were maturing and Buffalo added future HOF Joe DeLamielleure; the result was the NFL's first 2,000 yard man.

If you delete the Buffalo entry, there was still a 200-yard improvement on average, although the YPC only slightly increased. I think that's a sign that these teams were going to run more often no matter what, and good evidence of that is that they drafted two offensive linemen high in the draft. That's going to lead to more rushing attempts, more often than not. I think it's easy to see the same thing happening in SF, where the 49ers do seem intent on running as often as possible.

 

[Jason Wood]

Everyone is in love with Gore this year, in large part because the 49ers used two first round picks on the OL. Is this a guarantee of success? I know a lot of OL picks flame out as busts, so while it seems a good reason for optimism, I'm interested in getting opinions as to whether it really translates into better results for the team's rushing stats. The best comparison I can think of is the Jags using two early picks on OL in the '09 draft, and MJD did appear to benefit. Are there any other examples of this out there?

In Gore's case specifically, there are reasons for optimism beyond the addition of Iupati and Davis. The team added Mike Solari as its new OL coach. Solari is a well respected OL coach (who has been mismatched as an OC when given more authority), and the 49ers rushing attack wasn't bad to begin with (11th in yards per rush in 2009). Now to your question about rookies, I think it's a bit of mistake to limit your focus to rookies. What we really need to ask ourselves, across all 32 NFL teams, is were there any changes to the offensive line and, if so, are they more than likely to be improvements? In the case of Davis and Iupati, the expectation is that they most certainly will be. That expectation is currently being driven by the fact both were high picks and generally graded out well among scouts. As you noted though, not every high pick works out. In fact many do not. So ultimately this comes down to whether or not the SF front office got these picks right.I'm betting they did, at least in part. But it's never written in stone until we see it in action. There have been tons of examples of young OL contributing right away. D'Brick and Mangold with the Jets. Jake Long in Miami. Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah in Carolina. Chris Snee in New York. Ryan Clady (a beast!) in Denver. Michael Oher in Baltimore. Joe Thomas in Cleveland. And I'm sure I'm missing many others, and these are just recent examples. The great thing about the offensive line is an ability for a player to contribute right away in many cases. Even if a player is a long-term OT prospect, he can help out on the interior if need be (or may even find a new permanent home there a la Robert Gallery).

 

[bigmiiiiike]

This is why I love this site, thanks guys!

 

[Brothers Mayhem]

The addition of the linemen and Solari are good enough reasons alone to think Gore will outperform his ADP - however, the biggest reason of all, IMHO, is that Gore consistently shows up in the top tier of RB's and doing so on limited games played. He is prone to injury.

If he is the company of AP, MJD, etc. on a shortened season - then I believe the addition of the new OL members coupled with Solari...Gore may be able to get through a season injury free. This upside combined with his consistency to finish high each year just may allow us to see another 2k year again (not from CJ). Throw in his PPR's, and we have to go back to the MFaulk days to have seen that kind of production.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I am excited about the year he could put up. I just wish I was drafting from the 4 or 5 spot so I could get him. While it's still early - don't think I havn't considered taking him with my 1.02 pick - lol.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

This is why I love this site, thanks guys!

Great response, but also a great question, bigmiiiiike. I was wondering the same wonderings.

 

[Jason Wood]

The addition of the linemen and Solari are good enough reasons alone to think Gore will outperform his ADP - however, the biggest reason of all, IMHO, is that Gore consistently shows up in the top tier of RB's and doing so on limited games played. He is prone to injury. If he is the company of AP, MJD, etc. on a shortened season - then I believe the addition of the new OL members coupled with Solari...Gore may be able to get through a season injury free. This upside combined with his consistency to finish high each year just may allow us to see another 2k year again (not from CJ). Throw in his PPR's, and we have to go back to the MFaulk days to have seen that kind of production. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I am excited about the year he could put up. I just wish I was drafting from the 4 or 5 spot so I could get him. While it's still early - don't think I havn't considered taking him with my 1.02 pick - lol.

I agree, and made a similar argument in the Player Spotlight that we released today.

 

[baconisgood]

Since the NFL merger, a team has drafted multiple offensive lineman in the draft's first 40 picks 19 times. Here is how those team's rushing statistics changed the first 18 times (note that for the 1983 teams, I pro-rated their 1982 numbers to a 16-game season; I didn't do so for 1987 since there was also a team in 1988 on the list):

Year	Tm	 N-1RYD N-1RTD N-1YPC N RYD   N RTD N YPC  OL 1				  OL 22009	JAX	1774	17	4.2	2029	19	4.5	Eugene Monroe		 Eben Britton2006	NYJ	1328	10	3.5	1738	15	3.5	D'Brickashaw Ferguson Nick Mangold1995	JAX	----	--	--	 1705	 9	4.2	Tony Boselli		  Brian DeMarco1993	PHO	1491	11	3.8	1809	12	4.0	Ernest Dye			Ben Coleman1990	MIA	1330	10	3.3	1535	13	3.7	Richmond Webb		 Keith Sims1988	NYG	1457	 4	3.3	1689	15	3.4	Eric Moore			Jumbo Elliott1987	SFO	1986	16	3.9	2237	11	4.3	Harris Barton		 Jeff Bregel1985	DET	2017	13	4.5	1538	13	3.4	Lomas Brown		   Kevin Glover1983	DEN	1810	11	4.0	1784	15	3.8	Chris Hinton		  Mark Cooper1983	HOU	1420	 9	3.6	1998	16	4.0	Bruce Matthews		Harvey Salem1977	ATL	1689	10	3.6	1890	 9	3.2	Warren Bryant		 R.C. Thielemann1977	HOU	1498	 6	3.6	1989	15	3.9	Morris Towns		  George Reihner1977	SEA	1416	14	3.8	1964	12	4.3	Steve August		  Tom Lynch1975	NOR	1983	 9	3.9	1642	 9	3.5	Kurt Schumacher	   Lee Gross1975	RAM	2125	16	3.8	2371	18	4.1	Dennis Harrah		 Doug France1974	NYG	1478	11	3.2	1496	11	3.4	John Hicks			Tom Mullen1973	BUF	2132	11	4.2	3088	20	5.1	Joe DeLamielleure	 Jeff Winans1973	PHI	1393	 2	3.5	1791	 9	4.3	Jerry Sisemore		Guy MorrissAverage		1666	10.6  3.7	1917	13.6  3.9

Buffalo made by far the biggest improvement. For the Bills, they had taken All-Pro left guard in the 2nd round of the '72 draft, and also took two starting OL in the 1971 draft. That all came together in '73, when those players were maturing and Buffalo added future HOF Joe DeLamielleure; the result was the NFL's first 2,000 yard man.If you delete the Buffalo entry, there was still a 200-yard improvement on average, although the YPC only slightly increased. I think that's a sign that these teams were going to run more often no matter what, and good evidence of that is that they drafted two offensive linemen high in the draft. That's going to lead to more rushing attempts, more often than not. I think it's easy to see the same thing happening in SF, where the 49ers do seem intent on running as often as possible.

Wow this speaks volumes for Gore. There are only 2 instances on the list where the team rushed for fewer yards and 2 where the rushing yards are ~ even- and it looks similar for rushing TDs- with a 30% increase overall in that area. Even a below averaged improvement of 200 yards + 2 TDs would put a 16 game season for Gore as the #2 back.One question though- can you sort for their receiving numbers? I wouldn't want to jump to hard on this bandwagon if backs are losing 150 yards a year receiving due on average.

 

[SSOG]

I seem to recall Football Outsiders taking a similar approach to the topic. If I recall correctly, they looked at the Pick Value Chart and studied what impact drafting a certain number of "value points" worth of offensive linemen had on the offense as a whole, finding that teams that invested heavily in the offensive line early almost universally reaped immediate rewards. I wish I could find the article, but a cursory search turns up nothing.