Some random things I am wondering about (1 Viewer)

[32 Counter Pass]

Is it me or is there are greater frequency of weather impacting conditions early in season? I am seeing reports of steady rain and 20 mph winds expected in several games which could depress production in the pass game. Shades of the Dolphins/Buccs game rescheduled LY.

Might prioritizing early season schedule for QBs and WRs become a valid strategy?

Why do people use the term "positive regression?" Wouldn't be better to say "progression to the mean?"

Do injury settlements count against a team's cap? 

What the hell are the Raiders doing?

 

[zamboni]

Is it me or is there are greater frequency of weather impacting conditions early in season? I am seeing reports of steady rain and 20 mph winds expected in several games which could depress production in the pass game. Shades of the Dolphins/Buccs game rescheduled LY.

Global warming/climate change will do that.

 

[Spike]

In regard to the weather, I use this site (http://www.nflweather.com/) and it really doesn't show much pertaining to severe weather for this weekend's games.

 

[dschuler]

I think more people pay more attention due to increased analytics and data relating weather  to fantasy football performance. People that bet heavy on sports have always checked the weather for big spreads and totals on over/under. 

I think the Raiders made the right move with Mack as the Bears will likely be less than .500 and get two quality first round picks.  I don’t see them beating Aaron Rodgers or the Vikings so goodbye playoffs. 

 

[zftcg]

Why do people use the term "positive regression?" Wouldn't be better to say "progression to the mean?"

"Progression" refers to steady improvement. "Regression to the mean" just means that if an initial result is an outlier, subsequent results are likely to be closer to the mean. It can be positive or negative.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I think the Raiders made the right move with Mack as the Bears will likely be less than .500 and get two quality first round picks.

Oh that part made sense. It was sending the 2nd rounder WITH Mack that’s the head scratcher. Nagy said they were gonna do whatever it takes to get the deal down. Gruden was in a sellers market & other teams were interested.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

What the hell are the Raiders doing?

Oakland no longer matters.  It’s about building the team for Vegas.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Let's wait and see how many of these games actually have severe weather in the end. I feel like every week there are a big handful of games people are freaking out over and all but one of them ends up nice and sunny. 

 

[SameSongNDance]

Might prioritizing early season schedule for QBs and WRs become a valid strategy?

I think prioritizing a soft early season schedule for your entire team is a valid strategy.

In my mind that also includes targeting players who should start out hot and possibly fade like Hogan or Jamaal Williams. That would also mean that you avoid suspended players - especially someone like Ingram who is only going to play one game before October 21st. Or players like Kerryon Johnson (when he was going in the 5th) who may have to wait until the second half of the season until they hit their stride. Of course, another valid strategy might be to pair these types of players.

But I think if you can get out to a hot start with a weak or questionable season-long team it's easier to continue that momentum via the waiver wire/trades than it is to pull yourself out of a 0-3 hole with a strong team on paper. Because variance.

This idea kind of dawned upon when it was too late though. Because in my projections I always factored in Edelman coming back or Aaron Jones eventually forcing a split and it pushed players like Hogan and Williams down my board. In hindsight I think that was a mistake. 

 

[NFL2DF]

Global warming/climate change will do that.

That did not take long. 

Other people might say that hurricane season will do that.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

Why do people use the term "positive regression?" Wouldn't be better to say "progression to the mean?"

Upward/Downward Oscillation?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Is it me or is there are greater frequency of weather impacting conditions early in season? I am seeing reports of steady rain and 20 mph winds expected in several games which could depress production in the pass game. Shades of the Dolphins/Buccs game rescheduled LY.

Climate change is a beyotch.

Might prioritizing early season schedule for QBs and WRs become a valid strategy?

Always has been. Usually the last thing I look at, but I do look at schedules. More for matchups & less for weather. 

Why do people use the term "positive regression?" Wouldn't be better to say "progression to the mean?"

“Regression to the mean” would make even more sense. I’m not sure I’ve seen “positive regression” - seems like an oxymoron. 

Do injury settlements count against a team's cap? 

Dunno - I don’t think so? 

What the hell are the Raiders doing?

Pissing off their fan base & building to Vegas. Not mutually exclusive. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I think the Raiders made the right move with Mack as the Bears will likely be less than .500 and get two quality first round picks.  I don’t see them beating Aaron Rodgers or the Vikings so goodbye playoffs. 

Don't step in the Bears thread with that. I suggested that it might be a questionable move and basically got a sock party. They think Pace is a genius in there. 

 

[Avery]

Oakland no longer matters.  It’s about building the team for Vegas.

I haven't looked closely but I don't understand how assembling the oldest team in the NFL does that.

 

[davearm]

I think prioritizing a soft early season schedule for your entire team is a valid strategy.

In my mind that also includes targeting players who should start out hot and possibly fade like Hogan or Jamaal Williams. That would also mean that you avoid suspended players - especially someone like Ingram who is only going to play one game before October 21st. Or players like Kerryon Johnson (when he was going in the 5th) who may have to wait until the second half of the season until they hit their stride. Of course, another valid strategy might be to pair these types of players.

But I think if you can get out to a hot start with a weak or questionable season-long team it's easier to continue that momentum via the waiver wire/trades than it is to pull yourself out of a 0-3 hole with a strong team on paper. Because variance.

This idea kind of dawned upon when it was too late though. Because in my projections I always factored in Edelman coming back or Aaron Jones eventually forcing a split and it pushed players like Hogan and Williams down my board. In hindsight I think that was a mistake. 

I'm the exact opposite.  I want to go undefeated in December, so my roster is constructed as such.  I drafted Ingram, Edelman, Aaron Jones and Winston, because their expected average PPG was way higher than others being drafted in the same range.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I haven't looked closely but I don't understand how assembling the oldest team in the NFL does that.

I’m a bit perplexed by that myself. Usually this is what teams do when they want to win now.

by the time they get that 2020 pick, sadly some of the older dudes will be retired or IR’d. 

And I heard today that the Bears got back a 2nd and a 5th?  

its just an unfathomable situation to me. I have no idea what Gruden is doing. Reggie should resign. 

 

[Osaurus]

Why aren’t there game threads today?