madd futher
Footballguy
Although I'm a subscriber, I'm more of a lurker to the Shark Pool. I'd like to get your opinions on a trend that I saw this year (especially with concussion concerns), and the implications for the 18 game season that is likely to follow.
I've been playing FF for almost 10 years and with forty some teams, and I can not remember more fantasy injuries than I've seen this year. As a matter of fact, 2010 was the most difficult, least predictable season I can ever remember. Many studs who were drafted early were either outright busts (think Randy Moss) or semi-busts - or even more likely, they became early injury casualties - at almost all positions, but especially at TE.
I played in the FBG/FFPC and started off 7 - 1 and was 13th overall at that point. My team consisted of Romo, Young, Gore, Best, Hightower, Sproles, K Williams, A Brown, Harvin, S Rice (drafted late), Floyd, Edelman, Cribbs, McCluster, Parrish, Z Miller, D Clark + 2 defenses and a K. It is not hard to understand why I got off to a fast start and then the wheels came off. I simply was not able to work the waiver system well enough to compensate for all the injuries. Bad luck? Yes. But my team was not alone in that.
In fact, drafting well was really not a great part of the answer this year. For instance, here is my off-the-top-of-my-head 1st and 2nd all-waiver wire team. If you picked up your share of these guys, you were well on your way to your fantasy play-offs and maybe a championship:
1st team
QB Michael Vick
RB Peyton Hillis, Mike Tolbert
WR Brandon Lloyd, Mike Williams TB (although he was drafted late in many 12 team leagues)TE, Jacob Tamme
2nd team:
QB Jon Kitna
RB Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead (a two-fer)
WR Steve Johnson and the other Mike Williams.
TE Brandon Pettigrew (again he may have been drafted late), or Joel Dreessen, or Gronkowski, or Hernandez, or ???
One other thing to think about - I believe that more different QBs appeared in games this year (due to excessive injuries at QB) than any year in NFL history - including SIX starting rookie QBs this last weekend, not counting Stephen McGee playing more than half the snaps for the Cowboys.
Here's the point:
In season roster management - not the preseason draft - is what separated the winning owners from the losers in most leagues. And I think we can expect that trend to continue. Assuming there IS a fantasy football season next year (and I am an optimist), there WILL surely be an 18 game season. That means even more injuries in the future seasons, because IMO, human NFL bodies will just not be up to the additional punishment of that longer season.
So fantasy football will have to evolve. We can no longer expect to draft a team and be lucky enough to have most of your players physically survive the season. We will have to PLAN for most of our players breaking down at some point. While it will APPEAR that luck will become even more of a factor because of more injuries, in fact the opposite will be true. Pre-emptive waiver wire pick-ups and extremely active roster management will mean that the more attentive and more active owners will thrive. So IMO the 'skill' factor in roster management will become an even more important ingredient to fantasy success.
One other thing: This will mean that your waiver rules will become even more important in your leagues. First-come, open waivers are NOT the answer IMO and neither is allowing unlimited waiver transactions. Review your league waiver rules with the increased injury trend in mind. IMO, the blind bidding system is the most fun and the best answer.
What say you?
I've been playing FF for almost 10 years and with forty some teams, and I can not remember more fantasy injuries than I've seen this year. As a matter of fact, 2010 was the most difficult, least predictable season I can ever remember. Many studs who were drafted early were either outright busts (think Randy Moss) or semi-busts - or even more likely, they became early injury casualties - at almost all positions, but especially at TE.
I played in the FBG/FFPC and started off 7 - 1 and was 13th overall at that point. My team consisted of Romo, Young, Gore, Best, Hightower, Sproles, K Williams, A Brown, Harvin, S Rice (drafted late), Floyd, Edelman, Cribbs, McCluster, Parrish, Z Miller, D Clark + 2 defenses and a K. It is not hard to understand why I got off to a fast start and then the wheels came off. I simply was not able to work the waiver system well enough to compensate for all the injuries. Bad luck? Yes. But my team was not alone in that.
In fact, drafting well was really not a great part of the answer this year. For instance, here is my off-the-top-of-my-head 1st and 2nd all-waiver wire team. If you picked up your share of these guys, you were well on your way to your fantasy play-offs and maybe a championship:
1st team
QB Michael Vick
RB Peyton Hillis, Mike Tolbert
WR Brandon Lloyd, Mike Williams TB (although he was drafted late in many 12 team leagues)TE, Jacob Tamme
2nd team:
QB Jon Kitna
RB Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead (a two-fer)
WR Steve Johnson and the other Mike Williams.
TE Brandon Pettigrew (again he may have been drafted late), or Joel Dreessen, or Gronkowski, or Hernandez, or ???
One other thing to think about - I believe that more different QBs appeared in games this year (due to excessive injuries at QB) than any year in NFL history - including SIX starting rookie QBs this last weekend, not counting Stephen McGee playing more than half the snaps for the Cowboys.
Here's the point:
In season roster management - not the preseason draft - is what separated the winning owners from the losers in most leagues. And I think we can expect that trend to continue. Assuming there IS a fantasy football season next year (and I am an optimist), there WILL surely be an 18 game season. That means even more injuries in the future seasons, because IMO, human NFL bodies will just not be up to the additional punishment of that longer season.
So fantasy football will have to evolve. We can no longer expect to draft a team and be lucky enough to have most of your players physically survive the season. We will have to PLAN for most of our players breaking down at some point. While it will APPEAR that luck will become even more of a factor because of more injuries, in fact the opposite will be true. Pre-emptive waiver wire pick-ups and extremely active roster management will mean that the more attentive and more active owners will thrive. So IMO the 'skill' factor in roster management will become an even more important ingredient to fantasy success.
One other thing: This will mean that your waiver rules will become even more important in your leagues. First-come, open waivers are NOT the answer IMO and neither is allowing unlimited waiver transactions. Review your league waiver rules with the increased injury trend in mind. IMO, the blind bidding system is the most fun and the best answer.
What say you?
Last edited by a moderator:
