Something I learned from 2009 drafts (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I think that I learned something very valuable for the upcoming fantasy football season. I think I always knew what I am about to say. But for some reason, I push it aside at a draft. I ignore it out of greed.

First, some background info:

I do several redraft leagues every year. A league with college friends; one with old friends (back from high school and other areas of life); one with co-workers; one with a mish-mosh of guys that all know each other one way or another; etc. Not including my dynasty leagues, or Anarchy, or survivor leagues, etc - I do about 5 re-occuring redrafts a year...4 of which have been going on at least 6 years each (some much longer).

And I do several kinds:

10 team, ppr, flex

12 team, no ppr, no flex

12 team, partial ppr, flex

12 team, no ppr, flex

etc

I have had a lot of success in 4 of my 5 main redraft leagues. SBs, most points, best record, etc. Yet in one league, I cannot do well no matter what. In 8 years, I've never even appeared in the SB, let alone win one in that one league. Why? I thought about it, thought about it, and thought about it more. I consider all my leagues to have knowledgeable guys. But in this one league that I fail to have success in, it is literally my toughest competition. Not a single guy that just makes that awful pick. ALL of them know their stuff. Not even 1 or 2 that can be counted on to be in the league, yet have no shot.

Background info done. Onto what I realized.

I love getting value so much, that I don't get who I really want in that one league. I just looked over my notes from that draft from last year. I wanted Ray Rice. I had just gotten him a few days earlier at 5.11 in a 12 team league. That's 59th overall. Yet in my no-success league, I passed on him at 5.01 (10 teamer). I considered taking him there, but knew that if I could get him at 6.10 instead (afterall 6.10 is 60th overall), that would be a huge steal!! I love the idea of value falling to me so much, I get greedy. Value has been beaten into our heads so much, that it isn't that I don't get the value concept...it's that I get it too much!

Turns out that in the league where I got Rice at 5.11 (59th overall), I made it to semis, despite clunkers like Tomlinson at 1.11.

And it turns out that in the league where I hoped to get Rice at 6.10 (60th overall), he was selected at 5.10. I just barely missed the playoffs. Of course, other things factor in. But my point is, if you love a guy - I am not saying grab him early. But if it is around the right area for him, you can't wait. If he is a must have for you, you need to take him. If random-player-X has an ADP of mid-7th, and you love him big time, taking him at mid-6th isn't bad. And I've always hated that. But I am realizing I need to stop hating it.

I've been such a big fan on grabbing the guys that drop, that I don't take them when I should. And then...you guessed it...they don't drop. At least not in a league where truly everyone knows their football.

For instance, as just one example: this year Romo is going off with an ADP of 38th overall. With my 7th pick (1.07, 2.04, 3.07, etc), that means I should be able to get him at 4.04 (34th overall pick). And great value would be at 5.07 (47th overall). But there is no way. He was a top QB last year with 4483 passing yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 105 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD. He still has Jason Witten. He still has Miles Austin. He still has Felix, Marion, and Choice. He gained the ridiculously talented rookie WR Dez Bryant. And Roy gets to play the slot, WR3, instead of the WR2. And passing TDs in my league are worth 6, not 4. He's not making it to me at 4.04 and definitely not to me at 5.07. No way!!! Even though according to ADP, he should be there in mid-4th, he won't be. I wouldn't be surprised to see him gone by my 3.07 pick. But point is, hoping to get him at 5.07 (47th overall for a guy whose ADP is 38th overall) is the kind of thing I usually hope for, but just doesn't happen. He's not lasting til mid-5th.

I would love to hear if others have experienced the same thing. Have you been so in love with getting value, that you want players to drop, but they don't due to solid FF knowledge in your league? Do you agree with just take him if you love him? (Ignore the Romo example. That was just for illustration. I suppose the better illustration is the example of Rice last year.) Doesn't it feel so good to grab a guy that "falls" that some of us (at least me), tend to wait on certain players hoping to get them next round? Well, it doesn't always work. Would love to hear if others are on board with this concept. And if so, who do you "have" to have this year? Who is it this year that you are willing to take a full round before ADP somewhat early on, or at least 2-3 rounds before ADP in much later rounds?

 

[GroveDiesel]

I've found that in more competitive leagues, the value is usually in older guys that are extremely consistent but not all the sexy. A guy like Mason or Hines Ward or Thomas Jones will fall in drafts so that guys can show off how much they've "studied" and how they can pick the sleepers. You will have to reach earlier in a draft on guys usually because value guys at the top won't fall, but solid veterans that you can plug in as RB #2 or WR #3 can be easily found and help you win your league.

 

[Insein]

He still has Dallas Clark. He still has Miles Austin. He still has Felix, Marion, and Choice. He gained the ridiculously talented rookie WR Dez Bryant.

I'm sure you meant Witten. On the point though, I agree. I find myself trying to outsmart my friends by getting value only for them to take them before I get them. I did it last year. I drafted Benson in my one league in the 7th round. So I tried to be cute and get him in the 8th round of my less saavy league only for him to go in th 7th. We get so caught up in value that we forget its about getting the player on the team and scoring for you. If you have to go early to get them, then so be it. Not ridiculously early like taking Joe Flacco in the 1st round type of early, but reaching a bit to make sure you get the guy you want.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I will happily draft a guy a bit early to make sure I beat others to the punch --- depending on situation, of course.

if there's some guy I really love then I don't care about 'reaching', but maybe there's 4 or 5 guys I like at a position in the same value range, then maybe I'd be more patient.

you put in a lot of effort to figure out which guys to target, don't waste it letting some other guy get the jump on you.

just as example, I forget where I got ray rice last year, let's just say top of the 5th --- I could've maybe waited and tried to get him in the 6th for better 'value', but as it turns out I think I got great value as he outproduced his draft slot, and I might've lost him waiting another round.

I try to draft my opinions rather than worry about the average drafter's opinion.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

He still has Dallas Clark. He still has Miles Austin. He still has Felix, Marion, and Choice. He gained the ridiculously talented rookie WR Dez Bryant.

I'm sure you meant Witten. On the point though, I agree. I find myself trying to outsmart my friends by getting value only for them to take them before I get them. I did it last year. I drafted Benson in my one league in the 7th round. So I tried to be cute and get him in the 8th round of my less saavy league only for him to go in th 7th. We get so caught up in value that we forget its about getting the player on the team and scoring for you. If you have to go early to get them, then so be it. Not ridiculously early like taking Joe Flacco in the 1st round type of early, but reaching a bit to make sure you get the guy you want.

Brain fart by me. Shows at least someone read my long post!

 

[ppierce]

its funny that u used Romo as an example. i too draft at the 7th spot and i too really want him. i have my doubts that i get him at 3.07 as well. are you gonna reach for him in the 2nd round, or just gamble?

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

its funny that u used Romo as an example. i too draft at the 7th spot and i too really want him. i have my doubts that i get him at 3.07 as well. are you gonna reach for him in the 2nd round, or just gamble?

he was just one examplebut no, i will not be taking him at 2.04 (14th overall). no way for me.if ADP is remotely right, he should be there at 4.04. and value play would be at 5.07. but i don't think either will happen.for me the question is: do i take him at 3.07 (if he's even there)?who are others that everyone HAS TO HAVE this year?

 

[ppierce]

its funny that u used Romo as an example. i too draft at the 7th spot and i too really want him. i have my doubts that i get him at 3.07 as well. are you gonna reach for him in the 2nd round, or just gamble?

he was just one examplebut no, i will not be taking him at 2.04 (14th overall). no way for me.if ADP is remotely right, he should be there at 4.04. and value play would be at 5.07. but i don't think either will happen.for me the question is: do i take him at 3.07 (if he's even there)?who are others that everyone HAS TO HAVE this year?

here's the thing. at 3.07 if the guys at 3.8, 3.9 and 3.10 all have QB's already, you can wait cause they wont take a qb. even if 2 out of those guys have qb's and there are still 2 qb's on the board you still like, you can wait.

 

[LawFitz]

I learned this exact same lesson several years ago the year that Larry Johnson broke out. He was coming off a big end of season when Priest was hurt and was entering the year as Priest's backup/handcuff. I knew Priest was toast and wanted LJ badly. I tried to get cute in the fifth round and let LJ fall one more round to right about his ADP at the time. As is obvious, he didn't fall and went on to finish year as the #1 or 2 RB.

That year I won total points, but got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs thx to an ongoing hole I had all year at RB2. It taught me a very important lesson. If you really like a guy, you can't wait for him to fall to you. You have to go get him.

You have to be a go getta.

In the years that have followed I've become much more agressive but so has everyone else in that league as a result. To give you an idea, this year, I wanted Rodgers or Romo as my QB and was picking #9 out of 10. I knew Romo wouldn't fall to 3.9, despite his ADP, so I went ahead and took Rodgers at 1.9. Sure enough Romo went at 3.2.

In another example, I wanted Welker also, but knew he wouldn't fall to me at 5.9 or 6.2, even though ADP and a lot of people on this board told me he might. I went ahead and reached for him at 4.2. Instead of hearing mocking from the other owners I heard a bunch of groans and admissions that they were going to grab him with their next pick in Rd 4.

Every league is different, but you're absolutely right in your logic IMO with seasoned leagues.

 

[There it is]

Hi HTFS. I think we are all guilty of this. Then OTOH when you know the competition sometimes we reach when we don't have to. I have a rule in HTH " If I'm not comfortable starting him, I won't draft him."

Of course a round later when he's a steal, I suddenly feel like starting him. Don't hate anyone.

 

[Brewzers]

its funny that u used Romo as an example. i too draft at the 7th spot and i too really want him. i have my doubts that i get him at 3.07 as well. are you gonna reach for him in the 2nd round, or just gamble?

he was just one examplebut no, i will not be taking him at 2.04 (14th overall). no way for me.if ADP is remotely right, he should be there at 4.04. and value play would be at 5.07. but i don't think either will happen.for me the question is: do i take him at 3.07 (if he's even there)?who are others that everyone HAS TO HAVE this year?

I don't view taking Romo with the 27th pick vs 34 ADP as a huge stretch. It actually could work out strategically if you start a QB run and have a nice value pick fall to 4.04. I like drafts where I feel I'm "driving" vs "along for the ride".

 

[zed2283]

I think I learned that lesson a long time ago. If you want a guy, then you'd better take him.

 

[Warrior]

its funny that u used Romo as an example. i too draft at the 7th spot and i too really want him. i have my doubts that i get him at 3.07 as well. are you gonna reach for him in the 2nd round, or just gamble?

he was just one examplebut no, i will not be taking him at 2.04 (14th overall). no way for me.if ADP is remotely right, he should be there at 4.04. and value play would be at 5.07. but i don't think either will happen.for me the question is: do i take him at 3.07 (if he's even there)?who are others that everyone HAS TO HAVE this year?

Romo's ADP is based on 4 point passing TDs, not 6. His 6 pt passing TD ADP is probably closer to mid-3rd if not a little sooner.

 

[Jayrod]

I think this is actually multiplied in rookie drafts.

When you have a feeling a guy is going to be a stud in dynasty, don't fool around with worrying about ADP & value. I almost made the crazy, but correct, call to draft Chris Johnson ahead of Jonathan Stewart with the #2 pick. Instead I went safe and I'm stuck with a talented back that is his team's #2 option instead of the #1 overall player in fantasyland.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

IF YOU WANT HIM

COME AND CLAIM HIM

 

[GroveDiesel]

Of course, the flip side of this is: Don't get emotionally attached to a player. You put your list together and do the research ahead of time for a reason. Don't go busting your whole draft list just because you HAVE to have a certain player.

 

[Chaka]

its funny that u used Romo as an example. i too draft at the 7th spot and i too really want him. i have my doubts that i get him at 3.07 as well. are you gonna reach for him in the 2nd round, or just gamble?

he was just one examplebut no, i will not be taking him at 2.04 (14th overall). no way for me.if ADP is remotely right, he should be there at 4.04. and value play would be at 5.07. but i don't think either will happen.for me the question is: do i take him at 3.07 (if he's even there)?who are others that everyone HAS TO HAVE this year?

here's the thing. at 3.07 if the guys at 3.8, 3.9 and 3.10 all have QB's already, you can wait cause they wont take a qb. even if 2 out of those guys have qb's and there are still 2 qb's on the board you still like, you can wait.

This is a good point and one of the reasons I like the DD so much. The team stats window really helps in the scenario above when deciding if you should reach a little early for a guy or wait.

 

[Longhorn daddy]

I think I learned that lesson a long time ago. If you want a guy, then you'd better take him.

I personally don't pay much attention to ADP. I judge the players myself and value them that way. Of course I do get caught up in some hype and see value that others have put on a player and pick that said player, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. One thing I have learned and do, if I am going to make a pick, I am going to own it, not because some cheatsheet or value of ADP says it, because I wanted to make that pick. That way my mistakes are on me, and my successes are too.

 

[bengalbuck]

Of course, the flip side of this is: Don't get emotionally attached to a player. You put your list together and do the research ahead of time for a reason. Don't go busting your whole draft list just because you HAVE to have a certain player.

That's true as well. I got into trouble in the past where I would look at player X and think, I really hope I get this guy in the 3rd. Even if a higher rated guy fell, I'd grab my guy there...and it usually didn't work out. Anyway, I personally have found that the best draft strategy is to go with my board and really try to get safe players at good value for the first 4 rounds. After that, I am a lot more comfortable "reaching" for guys if I have a feeling about them. Benson was one of those guys for me last year and I ignored ADP to a certain extent and grabbed him when it was my pick and I thought he was the best player available instead of trying to be cute.

 

[moleculo]

ADP=average draft position. Average means that in roughly half of all leagues, player X is drafted ahead of his ADP. If you want someone, there is no problem with taking him ahead of his ADP.

Draft the team you want.

 

[Rovers]

If you really like a player, like a R Rice last year, you have to pull the trigger and just jump his ADP once in a while. I got Rice in the late 4th last year, and there was no shortage of critics here when I discussed it on this board.

In a 12 team redraft w/IDP, Gore @1.5, R White in the second, and P Manning fell to the 3.05, even though it's 4pts/Pass TD, he fell nto my lap. Now the next pick. Here is where I jumped. At 4.08, 0.5PPR, I'm in love with Crabtree's upside. If I wait another round, he is gone, and other owners who though he would drop expressed their disappointment. I took him over Boldin, S Smith (NYG), Ocho and Nicks.

I usually wait on a QB, but Manning was a no brainer there. So, I took a player that dropped, although I didn't plan on it. You simply can't plan for a player to drop. You jump on one when he does, but never plan on it. Be prepared to jump the ADP on a player you like. Take the drops as they come.

People moaned when I took Crabtree. They were sure he would drop. Like last year with Rice, I have a hunch, and I jumped a player's ADP. Here is what I take from this: Jumping a player's ADP is not really risk taking. Even if Crabtree does't get over 1000 yards, he's still going to be a quality starter. The risk is minimal, but the upside is there, and he could be a SoD. Never ever plan for a player you like to drop, because very single time, there is going to be another owner who likes that player as much as you do.

In that same draft, I took players that dropped. Addai at 5.05 and M Bush at 7.05. Never had Bush as a target, but in the 7th round... you take the drops when you can, but never plan on one.

 

[mdlane]

Yeah, that's rough. Two or three years ago AJ was going early 3rd round and I was forced to take him at the 12/13 turn because I couldn't fathom not getting him. And that really, really hurt. But our situations are actually just strong cases for auction leagues. I hope in 10 years we aren't even talking about serpentine drafts any more.

I think the situation is even more gut wrenching in auction leagues, where you have to decide how much you want perceived value vs. industry-projected value on a player .. with dollar by dollar increments. I have lost out on a lot of players I wanted because I wasn't willing to put in one more dollar to bid it up higher.

 

[Tyrion]

I think this is actually multiplied in rookie drafts.When you have a feeling a guy is going to be a stud in dynasty, don't fool around with worrying about ADP & value. I almost made the crazy, but correct, call to draft Chris Johnson ahead of Jonathan Stewart with the #2 pick. Instead I went safe and I'm stuck with a talented back that is his team's #2 option instead of the #1 overall player in fantasyland.

Did that same thing in a keeper league. (Not a rookie only draft) I actually liked CJ better but I thought I could be cute and get both of them and picked Stewart first because he was rated higher at the time. Of course he gets picked right before me on the turn.

 

[Tyrion]

Of course, the flip side of this is: Don't get emotionally attached to a player. You put your list together and do the research ahead of time for a reason. Don't go busting your whole draft list just because you HAVE to have a certain player.

If you have to have a certain player I have to assume that you have him rated high on your list. I believe these guys are talking about drafting according to your own value of a player vs the percieved value of the player by the fantasy world or ADP.

 

[[icon]]

I like drafts where I feel I'm "driving" vs "along for the ride".

bingo

 

[houston]

I think I learned that lesson a long time ago. If you want a guy, then you'd better take him.

what he said.value is important, but bottom line is that we're all trying to predict the future. better off going to the dance with guys who you are confident in their football abilities for an entire season than picking guys who look to be a value on a draft sheet.no matter what a value chart says, you've got 9 or 11 other personalities picking guys.i took Welker at 4.12, knowing that it was probably early, but was not confident that he'd last til 5.12, and told myself that I'd be pissed off if I passed on him on goes on to catch another 120 balls.

 

[sportsphysio]

I think I learned that lesson a long time ago. If you want a guy, then you'd better take him.

what he said.value is important, but bottom line is that we're all trying to predict the future. better off going to the dance with guys who you are confident in their football abilities for an entire season than picking guys who look to be a value on a draft sheet.no matter what a value chart says, you've got 9 or 11 other personalities picking guys.i took Welker at 4.12, knowing that it was probably early, but was not confident that he'd last til 5.12, and told myself that I'd be pissed off if I passed on him on goes on to catch another 120 balls.

Great thread!I had actually been thinking the same thing over the past few weeks. After going over the past few seasons (in which I have been on quite a losing streak), I realized that I was living and dying by ADP too much, and consistently losing out on guys I was targeting. As a result, my roster last year had too many "potential" and "what if" guys like DBrown and Moreno, and not enough of the sure things (because they were grabbed before they got back to me at the "appropriate" ADP). The comment made in this thread about ADP being just the average hits the nail on the head (not sure why this was so eye opening to me, considering ADP stands for AVERAGE draft position! ) Combine that with the fact that projections are just everyone's best guess, I had decided to approach my drafts differently this year and not be afraid to grab guys a little earlier than the ADP if there was little chance of them making it back to me the next round.Other things I learned from last year that I will use this year:1. Stop trying to be the guy to show off my "expansive" FFB knowledge by drafting the hidden gem who "could" pay off big instead of the "un-sexy" consistent performer; more times than not it doesn't pay off.2. Stop falling in love with all the rookie RB's; drafting one may be ok, but don't go overboard.3. If I say out loud "I hate this pick" as I making my selection, pick someone else. I learned this last year when I chose LT in the first round, and I'm STILL hating that pick.4. Think twice before stepping on any hype train, and temper any expectations on a player who has more than 3 pages to his "hype thread." This has some correlation with #1.5. Don't try to out-think the experts here at FBB; they know a hell of a lot more than I do, and will crash and burn much less frequently than I will!6. Re-read many of the well thought out analysis threads by guys like MoP; great stuff that deserves to be read just prior to drafting.7. I will not draft a QB in the first 2 rounds regardless who falls (in our league set-up, at least). My draft last year (6pts all TD's) started with Brees and LT; you can guess how my season went when Brees was just "average" for a prolonged stretch.Most of all, thanks to all of you guys on this forum and the experts who run it! You guys make this a fun place to hang out.My one criticism...the boards have become a little bit of a pissing contest at times; let's be civil!

 

[Rick James]

ADP is important and helpful, but it's only a tool. If you're picking #1, you've gotta wait 23 picks before your 2nd round selection, and 23 more before your 4th, 6th, etc. You can't say "oh he's valued in the middle 3rd, I can't take him", because he won't be there by the time it's back to you. So if you like a guy, take him.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Someone nailed it when they wrote how ADP is an average. We know this. It's obvious. Yet sometimes, we temporarily forget it. I feel like sometimes we use ADPs to "not take a player til then."

I wrote about Rice in the original post regarding where he was going last year in two different leagues of mine:

Got him at 5.11 in a 12 teamer = 59th overall.

So I did not take him in another draft at 5.01 in a 10 teamer as that would have been = 49th overall.

Instead, I was hoping he'd fall to me at 6.10 = 60th overall.

Well, I just checked another league of mine last year. The guy that won the whole thing actually drafted from the 12 spot in a 12 teamer. Two of the biggest reasons: Chris Johnson at 1.12; and Rice at 4.01 (37th overall). I looked at my cheatsheet from last year. And the most recent ADP info right before that draft had Rice at 7.02 in a 12 teamer. He jumped it by 3 full rounds. It paid off.

Point is: if you love a guy; and you just think you "know" he will have a great year --- then it is okay to take him before his ADP. I've gotten so hung up on value drafting (which is mostly a good thing), that sometimes I take it too far.

All that being said, who do some of you like as guys you really want or have to have this year? Who are you willing to take before before their ADP (by more than just a few spots) b/c you really like them this year?

 

[Northbound Train]

Good thread....been there, done that and not doing it again.

I too am so enthralled with "value" rather than a possible slight "reach" to get the guy I really want....not this year, if my guy is there and it is 10-15 picks higher than his ADP I am grabbing him and not hoping he comes back to me.

 

[skillz]

All that being said, who do some of you like as guys you really want or have to have this year? Who are you willing to take before before their ADP (by more than just a few spots) b/c you really like them this year?

I typicall don't get hung up on ADP and will snag a guy 1-2 rounds early if I am higher on him than others that may have a lower ADP. That strategy helped me snag Rice last year (although I did get burned by Donald Brown) and Chris Johnson and Slaton in 2008. Guys I would be willing to grab 1-2 rounds earlier than ADP include:Ahmad BradshawArian FosterMichael BushJohnny KnoxJermichael FinleyI am sure they are on tons of people's lists though.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

I grabbed Ray Rice 1-2 rounds before his ADP last year. This year, I am getting ready to jump on Jahvid Best at 4.6 in my PPR 10-teamer, instead of gambling and waiting till 5.5. I really don't want to take him that high, but I am getting more and more paranoid with each passing day that I will miss out on him.

Other guys that I am really liking a round earlier than ADP: Johnny Knox, Mike Wallace and T.O.

 

[GunslingerEnder]

This is a great thread. It's also exactly why I am taking Romo in the 2nd if I don't get Rodgers in the 1st. I believe that Romo's #'s will be top 3. I draft in Wisconsin though so I don't think I have a chance at Rodgers, Romo is my backup plan and I'm not letting him slip.

I believe that Foster is this year's Ray Rice so I'm going to grab him when it looks like he's going to start being other owners' target.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Now that the weekend is over, I presume several people around here had some drafts.

For those of you that did, did you experience any of this? Did you try and wait another round or two for someone you really liked, in order to maximize value - only to see him selected before you had another chance? If so, was it bad enough that you regretted it? And if so, who was the player?