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Sometimes stats don't lie... (1 Viewer)

rizzler

Footballguy
According to the STATSPASS statistical service, LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in broken tackles this season with 27.

When he isn't hurdling over defenders, Blount can be quite the punishing back. It's an astounding stat, given that Blount entered Week 8 with just 21 carries on the season. He has nearly 100 fewer rushing attempts than the No. 2 back on the list, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw (23). The undrafted rookie is coming off a career-high 164 rushing yards against Seattle.

Source: St. Petersburg Times

Read that over twice... please. That is a simply stunning statistic. Now I'm not implying you take this guy first round, but stats like this show the ability Blount has to be a first round back. I couldn't believe this when I read it and see a bright bright future for this kid.

27 broken tackles as a rookie, the league leader... it's the fine details like this that help you win (fantasy) championships.

 
thanks for the tip .. .I'll pass . . .
great debate!!! Let me guess, you'll stick to Peterson, Foster and CJ2K.... you know.. the other underrated guys
I will stick to guys with proven production - I am not using a first round pick on speculation . . .
Like I said, if you had the ability to read properly... I'M NOT SUGGESTING YOU TAKE HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND.Again,t hanks for the lovely debate.
 
you were the one that suggested that he was a first round back - and good job on using caps . . .

where WOULD you take him??

 
you were the one that suggested that he was a first round back - and good job on using caps . . .where WOULD you take him??
wanted to drive home the point you clearly missed. I said he has the ABILITY to be a first round back... which could happen this coming year or the one after... I'm not a psychic, so I don't know... and I wouldn't use a first round pick on him myself this coming year...Depending on who the Bucs keep at RB and at coach, I could take him late 2nd early 3rd (based on who is available)... Though the draft isn't for 6-7 months,he could stay or drop by that point.
 
you were the one that suggested that he was a first round back - and good job on using caps . . .where WOULD you take him??
wanted to drive home the point you clearly missed. I said he has the ABILITY to be a first round back... which could happen this coming year or the one after... I'm not a psychic, so I don't know... and I wouldn't use a first round pick on him myself this coming year...Depending on who the Bucs keep at RB and at coach, I could take him late 2nd early 3rd (based on who is available)... Though the draft isn't for 6-7 months,he could stay or drop by that point.
thanks - I don't think he's a feature back, and I think he will be overrated next year - i dont like backs that cant pass protect and that cant succeed in short yardage . . .
 
Broken tackles is a two part thing. There is Blount on the one hand and the tackler on the other. His size alone makes him hard to bring down. A more important stat would be yards after first hit. You can break 27 tackles and get nowhere.

This brings up a far more important point. You have to trust the whole team to truly trust the running back. Is the oline good enough to create space for him? Can they consistently get him the second level where he can break tackles easier? Will the passing groups learn to beat defenses better planned next year to stop them, keeping the defense honest. Will the defense improve enough to allow the Bucs a lead so Blount is relevant?

I'm worried he is a little too big to get good leverage on tough yardage plays. It seems like there is a scene of him getting stuffed on short yardage every few weeks.

Most importantly, the Bucs aren't going to face the NFC West next year. Against any other division they are fighting to reach 8-8.

 
I am not saying I back him or don't, but one other stat I would like to see, is the percentage of short yardage plays he was asked to run (i.e. 3 yards or less for a first down or TD). Again, I have no clue, but my "guess" would be that he ran fewer than Brashaw and guys like Hillis, etc.

I also think we need to take into account that the bulk of his carries in the 2nd half of the year (weeks 1-8 he had 56 and 9-16 he had 126 attempts). We saw two guys last year benefit from having fresh legs at the end of the season. One guy parlayed his success into a fantastic 2010 (Charles), while they other faded into the background (Harrison). Just food for thought.

Last note: I did not realize this, but he only has 6 receptions for 3 yards...my guess is that in PPR, you will have to knock him back a round or two in 2011.

 
I don't play PPR and always fail to take that into account.

I love what I see in this kid... he's busted some huge runs.... make sick hurdles, broken the MOST tackles... and as has been stated many times over, he still only knows half the playbook.

The guy could be a steal next year... and yes, could also tank

 
Well, yes, that is a nice statistic, but over the years has broken tackles been a proven indicator of future success? It may well be, it is just I don't recall people throwing that out as something you can hang your hat on.

And by the way, don't get me wrong, I like Blount and think he will make a solid #2 RB with the upside of a low end #1, it is just that I don't know if the broken tackle stat means that I should raise him significantly in my rankings.

 
I don't play PPR and always fail to take that into account.

I love what I see in this kid... he's busted some huge runs.... make sick hurdles, broken the MOST tackles... and as has been stated many times over, he still only knows half the playbook.

The guy could be a steal next year... and yes, could also tank
I know the single play you're talking about when Blount made "sick hurdles". It was practially played on constant loop on ESPN that entire week. I'll admit, that was a very athletic move. But what sold me AGAINST Blount was how quickly and effortlessly he was run down by two DB's on that very play. It was like he was running in quicksand. Granted, I play in a TD-heavy, big-play bonus format, but I'm not enamored. I think he can be a "good" NFL RB for a few years. That's about it.
 
I think he has the talent to be a good FF back, but he'll never be great if he doesn't learn to catch the ball. For RBs who average ~1 reception a game, it almost always requires that they get in the endzone to put up good fantasy numbers each week. If they don't get in, even if they run for 100 yards, 10 fantasy points ain't that great.

And because Blount is one of those backs whose fantasy value nearly completely depends on TDs, I see him being inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, that is until (or if) he starts making some receptions. Because of this, he'll most certainly end up on none of my redraft teams because some other people will value him more than I.

 
I don't play PPR and always fail to take that into account.

I love what I see in this kid... he's busted some huge runs.... make sick hurdles, broken the MOST tackles... and as has been stated many times over, he still only knows half the playbook.
Wow, is that true? That can't be possible
 
Sweet Love said:
I also think we need to take into account that the bulk of his carries in the 2nd half of the year (weeks 1-8 he had 56 and 9-16 he had 126 attempts). We saw two guys last year benefit from having fresh legs at the end of the season. One guy parlayed his success into a fantastic 2010 (Charles), while they other faded into the background (Harrison). Just food for thought.
A major difference between Blount and Harrison is that Harrison's average really went down in the later games. He was just compiling on huge carry totals. Blount has averaged 5.2, 4.5, 7.3 and 9.1 in his last 4 games. Also Blount plays in an offense that appears very much on the rise and has a franchise QB in place.
 
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4th round or later is where I am slotting him. Too many other areas and players i take a 2nd year guy who showed great stuff but does not have a track record. Ala Arian Foster. Took him at 4.4 and knew he would be there.

RB/WR

WR/RB

WR

All depends where I am picking from etc. No question I liked what I saw. I think if you can get him in the 4th your going to be probably a happy guy if he can parlay this seasons success over a full 16 (or 18 if the owners get their way) season.

I will be very curious to see mocks in August and where he is being slotted.

And that's it. No more players projections or what not for me till April.

I am burnt out. :lmao:

 
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rizzler said:
According to the STATSPASS statistical service, LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in broken tackles this season with 27.When he isn't hurdling over defenders, Blount can be quite the punishing back. It's an astounding stat, given that Blount entered Week 8 with just 21 carries on the season. He has nearly 100 fewer rushing attempts than the No. 2 back on the list, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw (23). The undrafted rookie is coming off a career-high 164 rushing yards against Seattle.Source: St. Petersburg Times Read that over twice... please. That is a simply stunning statistic. Now I'm not implying you take this guy first round, but stats like this show the ability Blount has to be a first round back. I couldn't believe this when I read it and see a bright bright future for this kid.27 broken tackles as a rookie, the league leader... it's the fine details like this that help you win (fantasy) championships.
hmmmmmmmmm care to share with us how many passes Blount has caught, how many TD's he has. Freeman is the future of the Bucs, and Blount will be an after thought.Thanks, but I pass
 
I don't play PPR and always fail to take that into account.

I love what I see in this kid... he's busted some huge runs.... make sick hurdles, broken the MOST tackles... and as has been stated many times over, he still only knows half the playbook.
Wow, is that true? That can't be possible
why not??
Hasn't he been there the whole season?
No, he was on the Titans.
Pretty sure he didnt make the Titans
 
I know the single play you're talking about when Blount made "sick hurdles". It was practially played on constant loop on ESPN that entire week. I'll admit, that was a very athletic move. But what sold me AGAINST Blount was how quickly and effortlessly he was run down by two DB's on that very play. It was like he was running in quicksand. Granted, I play in a TD-heavy, big-play bonus format, but I'm not enamored. I think he can be a "good" NFL RB for a few years. That's about it.
Couple things.1-It wan't a SINGLE play. Blount has used the hurdle AT LEAST 5 times. The three most memorable were the one you are referring to that you seem to believe was the single play. The second memorable hurdle occured when he tried to hurdle a defender, was hit, and flipped into the endzone. The third occured this last weekend. There were at least 2 others that weren't highlight plays because his hurdle didn't work. The problem I see with the hurdle move (which is similar to the problem I see with Mendenhall's spin move) is that he seems to try it, A LOT. If it becomes predictable, it's not going to continue to be successful.

2-Blount weights 250+ lbs. DBs SHOULD be able to run him down. He's not a Johnson, Charles, Spiller type back that is going to kill you with his speed. His strength is, well, his strength. He has enough speed, but it's not something that is his calling card.

 
Pretty sure he didnt make the Titans
But he was there for the entire pre-season, and didn't sign with the Bucs until the end of (or right before the end of) pre-season. With Caddy being the starter for the first part of the year, and without the benefit of an off-season to learn the playbook, it has been widely reported that Blount isn't familiar with the entire offense. Whether the % he knows is 1/2 the playbook, or a different number, I can't be sure, but it seems reasonable to believe that he doesn't have a full grasp of every facet of the playbook.
 
rizzler said:
According to the STATSPASS statistical service, LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in broken tackles this season with 27.When he isn't hurdling over defenders, Blount can be quite the punishing back. It's an astounding stat, given that Blount entered Week 8 with just 21 carries on the season. He has nearly 100 fewer rushing attempts than the No. 2 back on the list, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw (23). The undrafted rookie is coming off a career-high 164 rushing yards against Seattle.Source: St. Petersburg Times Read that over twice... please. That is a simply stunning statistic. Now I'm not implying you take this guy first round, but stats like this show the ability Blount has to be a first round back. I couldn't believe this when I read it and see a bright bright future for this kid.27 broken tackles as a rookie, the league leader... it's the fine details like this that help you win (fantasy) championships.
hmmmmmmmmm care to share with us how many passes Blount has caught, how many TD's he has. Freeman is the future of the Bucs, and Blount will be an after thought.Thanks, but I pass
Good point. When Joe Montana was the future of the 49ers, no RB ever put up good FF numbers. With Manning as the centerpiece of the Colts, RB was a FF wasteland. With Brady at QB, the Pats have NEVER produced a viable FF RB.
 
I drafted the guy in several dyansty leagues last year but...

1st of all, Blount is 24 and a rookie...he was held back in multiple grades it would seem growing up and he has a tendency to lose his cool. I don't think he's the sharpest tool in the shed and I doubt his wonderlic was real high. Brains don't matter you say? Perhaps in some systems but I think it does matter in remembering plays called, what holes to hit, and picking up the pass rush.

2nd...he might have run thru a lot of tackles and looked like Edwin Moses on the field last week but how often is he going to hurdle guys like that? And his stats are not studly. When he was the starter he avg roughly 20/80/.5TD per week and offers nothing in the receiving dept. He had 164 against Seattle week 16 and the Seadogs are wretched on the road over the last 3-4 years, and Freeman threw 5 touchdowns which kind of takes the pressure of the running game.

3rd...Tampa Bay is improving and while Blount is a nice story they likely are not going to put all their eggs in one basket with him, no franchise will right now. He has a long way to go to prove he can handle being the guy and not losing his temper. It's a nice story but look for Cadillac to be gone and the Bucs to find another back in the draft or thru FA to bring in and help. Huggins and Blount were undrafted to my knowledge and the Bucs have nothing invested in them so don't assume you are looking at the feature back in Tampa for the next 5 years for either of them. Even if the two of them are a combo of some sort, Blount is zero impact in the passing game and therefore you have a 1 dimensional back. Don't even bring up Turner because they are not the same backs. Very few 1 dimensional backs are worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick.

My $2.22 worth

 
rizzler said:
According to the STATSPASS statistical service, LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in broken tackles this season with 27.

When he isn't hurdling over defenders, Blount can be quite the punishing back. It's an astounding stat, given that Blount entered Week 8 with just 21 carries on the season. He has nearly 100 fewer rushing attempts than the No. 2 back on the list, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw (23). The undrafted rookie is coming off a career-high 164 rushing yards against Seattle.

Source: St. Petersburg Times

Read that over twice... please. That is a simply stunning statistic. Now I'm not implying you take this guy first round, but stats like this show the ability Blount has to be a first round back. I couldn't believe this when I read it and see a bright bright future for this kid.

27 broken tackles as a rookie, the league leader... it's the fine details like this that help you win (fantasy) championships.
hmmmmmmmmm care to share with us how many passes Blount has caught, how many TD's he has. Freeman is the future of the Bucs, and Blount will be an after thought.

Thanks, but I pass
Good point. When Joe Montana was the future of the 49ers, no RB ever put up good FF numbers. With Manning as the centerpiece of the Colts, RB was a FF wasteland. With Brady at QB, the Pats have NEVER produced a viable FF RB.
As an Edgerrin James owner during his early years in the league, I won a couple of championships with him, so it was a hardly a FF wasteland.
 
rizzler said:
According to the STATSPASS statistical service, LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in broken tackles this season with 27.

When he isn't hurdling over defenders, Blount can be quite the punishing back. It's an astounding stat, given that Blount entered Week 8 with just 21 carries on the season. He has nearly 100 fewer rushing attempts than the No. 2 back on the list, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw (23). The undrafted rookie is coming off a career-high 164 rushing yards against Seattle.

Source: St. Petersburg Times

Read that over twice... please. That is a simply stunning statistic. Now I'm not implying you take this guy first round, but stats like this show the ability Blount has to be a first round back. I couldn't believe this when I read it and see a bright bright future for this kid.

27 broken tackles as a rookie, the league leader... it's the fine details like this that help you win (fantasy) championships.
hmmmmmmmmm care to share with us how many passes Blount has caught, how many TD's he has. Freeman is the future of the Bucs, and Blount will be an after thought.

Thanks, but I pass
Good point. When Joe Montana was the future of the 49ers, no RB ever put up good FF numbers. With Manning as the centerpiece of the Colts, RB was a FF wasteland. With Brady at QB, the Pats have NEVER produced a viable FF RB.
As an Edgerrin James owner during his early years in the league, I won a couple of championships with him, so it was a hardly a FF wasteland.
Ah, young grasshopper, he was using the ancient technique of sarcasm. In good time you will learn this art and how to combat it.
 
Pretty sure he didnt make the Titans
But he was there for the entire pre-season, and didn't sign with the Bucs until the end of (or right before the end of) pre-season. With Caddy being the starter for the first part of the year, and without the benefit of an off-season to learn the playbook, it has been widely reported that Blount isn't familiar with the entire offense. Whether the % he knows is 1/2 the playbook, or a different number, I can't be sure, but it seems reasonable to believe that he doesn't have a full grasp of every facet of the playbook.
I do have to take some issue with those saying he can't catch and can't pass block. We are talking about a rookie RB who sat out his entire Senior year of college football and only joined the Bucs after pre-season. He wasn't signed to start in Tampa, and didn't receive the starting reps. He started out WAY behind the 8-ball and I had to venture a guess, he probably knows no more than 75% of the playbook by now due to not being in camp when everything is installed and repeated over and over. Without experience in the passing game and without going through camp, he is not going to be able to "catch up" to a seasoned vet like Caddy and steal away his 3rd down or even goal line duties right away. What style of offense does Oregon play? Is it the same as what Tampa is running now, some year and a half removed from his college playing days? It appears that Blount has been given bite size chunks to start with, and has proven that he is able to handle them. I think with the stability of knowing where he is going to be playing/living, knowing his teammates tendencies is certain situations, and a full off season of workouts with professional coaches, he could likely be a lower end #1/high end #2 RB next year in an up and coming offense. He isn't a world beater, but has broken some long runs despite not having elite speed. Freeman is coming into his own, Tampa Mike is looking good, Benn is coming around, Winslow has Freeman's trust...I think all those factors will help to open more holes for Blount. All things being equal, I would rank his POTENTIAL somewhere in the top 8-12 RB range next year unless Tampa brings in a DWill type back.
 
Who cares if he didn't make the Titans? Do I need to provide a list of all the running backs who became stars after getting cut in training camp??

 
He will be on my list of RBs to watch in the preseason. Typically, I find you can always find a top 10 back to take in rounds 3 or later by simply watching the preseason games. This new 2 game preseason may make that more difficult. I hope there IS a preseason next year.

 
Who cares if he didn't make the Titans? Do I need to provide a list of all the running backs who became stars after getting cut in training camp??
Not that your point isn't valid, but he wasn't cut. The Titans wanted to put him on their practice squad, but the Bucs signed him instead. In essence, you have AT LEAST 2 teams who wanted him, it just so happened that the Bucs ended up with him. For FF purposes (as of right now) this is best for Blount, because on the Titans, he would have been no more than a role player, unless Chris Johnson were hurt.
 
Bayhawks said:
I drafted the guy in several dyansty leagues last year but...

1st of all, Blount is 24 and a rookie...he was held back in multiple grades it would seem growing up and he has a tendency to lose his cool. I don't think he's the sharpest tool in the shed and I doubt his wonderlic was real high. Brains don't matter you say? Perhaps in some systems but I think it does matter in remembering plays called, what holes to hit, and picking up the pass rush.



This is just bad, MOP. Normally, I find your posts very informative and enlightening, but this is just weak. Blount just turned 24 in December. He played 2 years in JC, and he was at Oregon for 2 years. If he was 23 when he left Oregon, that means he was 19 when he graduated HS. Perhaps he was held back 1 year for grades/behavior, or perhaps his parents started him a year late so he'd be the oldest/biggest kid in his grade, rather than the youngest/smallest. As for the Wonderlic, a simple search would show that he scored a 16. For the record, the ability to do well on the Wonderlic is (IMO) not a good indicator of NFL ability/talent, especially not at the RB position. Look at E. Smith's attempts at TV commentary. The man could barely put together a coherent sentence, but he was a great RB. For the record, a quick search shows that Blount's score isn't all that bad compared to some other top RBs; Chris Johnson took it twice and scored 10/25, Arian Foster took it twice and scored 19/25, Peyton Hillis 17.

2nd...he might have run thru a lot of tackles and looked like Edwin Moses on the field last week but how often is he going to hurdle guys like that? And his stats are not studly. When he was the starter he avg roughly 20/80/.5TD per week and offers nothing in the receiving dept. He had 164 against Seattle week 16 and the Seadogs are wretched on the road over the last 3-4 years, and Freeman threw 5 touchdowns which kind of takes the pressure of the running game.

I guess it depends on what you call a stud. 20 carries/80 yards/.5 TD a week adds up to 320 carries, 1280 yards, and 8 TDs. While I wouldn't call that a stud, I would be real happy with those numbers from my #2 RB. I also believe that there is room for improvement. Blount wasn't great in short-yardage situations this year, and that (IMO) is in large part for him trying to wait for the hole to open. In short-yardage/goal-line situations, the RB often needs to slam into the line and get that 1-2 yards. Blount's size and frame will make that possible; it's just a habit he will have to learn in those situations. If nothing changes, Blount is a Rudi Johnson-type RB. He'll put up (FF) RB2 numbers with occasional big weeks and occasional poor weeks. If he becomes a little more involved in the passing game, he could be a Corey Dillon-like RB, and if he gets a little more successful at the goal-line, he could be a Michael-Turner like RB. I wouldn't be unhappy with any of those scenarios, if he's my #2 RB.

3rd...Tampa Bay is improving and while Blount is a nice story they likely are not going to put all their eggs in one basket with him, no franchise will right now. He has a long way to go to prove he can handle being the guy and not losing his temper. It's a nice story but look for Cadillac to be gone and the Bucs to find another back in the draft or thru FA to bring in and help. Huggins and Blount were undrafted to my knowledge and the Bucs have nothing invested in them so don't assume you are looking at the feature back in Tampa for the next 5 years for either of them. Even if the two of them are a combo of some sort, Blount is zero impact in the passing game and therefore you have a 1 dimensional back. Don't even bring up Turner because they are not the same backs. Very few 1 dimensional backs are worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick.
This remains to be seen. This off-season will tell a lot. Assuming that the NFL and NFLPA comes to an agreement on a CBA, that is. If Blount is serious this off-season, attends workouts, studies the playbook, attends OTAs, mini-camps, etc, I don't see why TB would draft another RB. They have Huggins, and they could retain Williams if they wanted to. It doesn't matter that you don't think Blount is the answer, because he has shown tremendous ability and hasn't gotten into any trouble this year since he's been in TB. Even if he is only a 2-down back, as mentioned before, his 20/80/.5 game averages make for a nice RB2, and if he improves on the TD total, he could be a borderline #1RB.
Vince Young scored a 6 on his first Wonderlic and he plays QB. 16 at RB makes Blount a genius.

 
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I drafted the guy in several dyansty leagues last year but...

1st of all, Blount is 24 and a rookie...he was held back in multiple grades it would seem growing up and he has a tendency to lose his cool. I don't think he's the sharpest tool in the shed and I doubt his wonderlic was real high. Brains don't matter you say? Perhaps in some systems but I think it does matter in remembering plays called, what holes to hit, and picking up the pass rush.



This is just bad, MOP. Normally, I find your posts very informative and enlightening, but this is just weak. Blount just turned 24 in December. He played 2 years in JC, and he was at Oregon for 2 years. If he was 23 when he left Oregon, that means he was 19 when he graduated HS. Perhaps he was held back 1 year for grades/behavior, or perhaps his parents started him a year late so he'd be the oldest/biggest kid in his grade, rather than the youngest/smallest. As for the Wonderlic, a simple search would show that he scored a 16. For the record, the ability to do well on the Wonderlic is (IMO) not a good indicator of NFL ability/talent, especially not at the RB position. Look at E. Smith's attempts at TV commentary. The man could barely put together a coherent sentence, but he was a great RB. For the record, a quick search shows that Blount's score isn't all that bad compared to some other top RBs; Chris Johnson took it twice and scored 10/25, Arian Foster took it twice and scored 19/25, Peyton Hillis 17.

2nd...he might have run thru a lot of tackles and looked like Edwin Moses on the field last week but how often is he going to hurdle guys like that? And his stats are not studly. When he was the starter he avg roughly 20/80/.5TD per week and offers nothing in the receiving dept. He had 164 against Seattle week 16 and the Seadogs are wretched on the road over the last 3-4 years, and Freeman threw 5 touchdowns which kind of takes the pressure of the running game.

I guess it depends on what you call a stud. 20 carries/80 yards/.5 TD a week adds up to 320 carries, 1280 yards, and 8 TDs. While I wouldn't call that a stud, I would be real happy with those numbers from my #2 RB. I also believe that there is room for improvement. Blount wasn't great in short-yardage situations this year, and that (IMO) is in large part for him trying to wait for the hole to open. In short-yardage/goal-line situations, the RB often needs to slam into the line and get that 1-2 yards. Blount's size and frame will make that possible; it's just a habit he will have to learn in those situations. If nothing changes, Blount is a Rudi Johnson-type RB. He'll put up (FF) RB2 numbers with occasional big weeks and occasional poor weeks. If he becomes a little more involved in the passing game, he could be a Corey Dillon-like RB, and if he gets a little more successful at the goal-line, he could be a Michael-Turner like RB. I wouldn't be unhappy with any of those scenarios, if he's my #2 RB.

3rd...Tampa Bay is improving and while Blount is a nice story they likely are not going to put all their eggs in one basket with him, no franchise will right now. He has a long way to go to prove he can handle being the guy and not losing his temper. It's a nice story but look for Cadillac to be gone and the Bucs to find another back in the draft or thru FA to bring in and help. Huggins and Blount were undrafted to my knowledge and the Bucs have nothing invested in them so don't assume you are looking at the feature back in Tampa for the next 5 years for either of them. Even if the two of them are a combo of some sort, Blount is zero impact in the passing game and therefore you have a 1 dimensional back. Don't even bring up Turner because they are not the same backs. Very few 1 dimensional backs are worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick.

This remains to be seen. This off-season will tell a lot. Assuming that the NFL and NFLPA comes to an agreement on a CBA, that is. If Blount is serious this off-season, attends workouts, studies the playbook, attends OTAs, mini-camps, etc, I don't see why TB would draft another RB. They have Huggins, and they could retain Williams if they wanted to. It doesn't matter that you don't think Blount is the answer, because he has shown tremendous ability and hasn't gotten into any trouble this year since he's been in TB. Even if he is only a 2-down back, as mentioned before, his 20/80/.5 game averages make for a nice RB2, and if he improves on the TD total, he could be a borderline #1RB.
 
TheWheel said:
Broken tackles is a two part thing. There is Blount on the one hand and the tackler on the other. His size alone makes him hard to bring down. A more important stat would be yards after first hit. You can break 27 tackles and get nowhere.

This brings up a far more important point. You have to trust the whole team to truly trust the running back. Is the oline good enough to create space for him? Can they consistently get him the second level where he can break tackles easier? Will the passing groups learn to beat defenses better planned next year to stop them, keeping the defense honest. Will the defense improve enough to allow the Bucs a lead so Blount is relevant?

I'm worried he is a little too big to get good leverage on tough yardage plays. It seems like there is a scene of him getting stuffed on short yardage every few weeks.

Most importantly, the Bucs aren't going to face the NFC West next year. Against any other division they are fighting to reach 8-8.
I think 930 yards and 5 TDs in weeks 7-16 is very relevant. That is top 15 in the league. And you have to figure touches and TDs go nowhere but up in 2011...

 
Bayhawks said:
I drafted the guy in several dyansty leagues last year but...

1st of all, Blount is 24 and a rookie...he was held back in multiple grades it would seem growing up and he has a tendency to lose his cool. I don't think he's the sharpest tool in the shed and I doubt his wonderlic was real high. Brains don't matter you say? Perhaps in some systems but I think it does matter in remembering plays called, what holes to hit, and picking up the pass rush.



This is just bad, MOP. Normally, I find your posts very informative and enlightening, but this is just weak. Blount just turned 24 in December. He played 2 years in JC, and he was at Oregon for 2 years. If he was 23 when he left Oregon, that means he was 19 when he graduated HS. Perhaps he was held back 1 year for grades/behavior, or perhaps his parents started him a year late so he'd be the oldest/biggest kid in his grade, rather than the youngest/smallest. As for the Wonderlic, a simple search would show that he scored a 16. For the record, the ability to do well on the Wonderlic is (IMO) not a good indicator of NFL ability/talent, especially not at the RB position. Look at E. Smith's attempts at TV commentary. The man could barely put together a coherent sentence, but he was a great RB. For the record, a quick search shows that Blount's score isn't all that bad compared to some other top RBs; Chris Johnson took it twice and scored 10/25, Arian Foster took it twice and scored 19/25, Peyton Hillis 17.

2nd...he might have run thru a lot of tackles and looked like Edwin Moses on the field last week but how often is he going to hurdle guys like that? And his stats are not studly. When he was the starter he avg roughly 20/80/.5TD per week and offers nothing in the receiving dept. He had 164 against Seattle week 16 and the Seadogs are wretched on the road over the last 3-4 years, and Freeman threw 5 touchdowns which kind of takes the pressure of the running game.

I guess it depends on what you call a stud. 20 carries/80 yards/.5 TD a week adds up to 320 carries, 1280 yards, and 8 TDs. While I wouldn't call that a stud, I would be real happy with those numbers from my #2 RB. I also believe that there is room for improvement. Blount wasn't great in short-yardage situations this year, and that (IMO) is in large part for him trying to wait for the hole to open. In short-yardage/goal-line situations, the RB often needs to slam into the line and get that 1-2 yards. Blount's size and frame will make that possible; it's just a habit he will have to learn in those situations. If nothing changes, Blount is a Rudi Johnson-type RB. He'll put up (FF) RB2 numbers with occasional big weeks and occasional poor weeks. If he becomes a little more involved in the passing game, he could be a Corey Dillon-like RB, and if he gets a little more successful at the goal-line, he could be a Michael-Turner like RB. I wouldn't be unhappy with any of those scenarios, if he's my #2 RB.

3rd...Tampa Bay is improving and while Blount is a nice story they likely are not going to put all their eggs in one basket with him, no franchise will right now. He has a long way to go to prove he can handle being the guy and not losing his temper. It's a nice story but look for Cadillac to be gone and the Bucs to find another back in the draft or thru FA to bring in and help. Huggins and Blount were undrafted to my knowledge and the Bucs have nothing invested in them so don't assume you are looking at the feature back in Tampa for the next 5 years for either of them. Even if the two of them are a combo of some sort, Blount is zero impact in the passing game and therefore you have a 1 dimensional back. Don't even bring up Turner because they are not the same backs. Very few 1 dimensional backs are worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick.
This remains to be seen. This off-season will tell a lot. Assuming that the NFL and NFLPA comes to an agreement on a CBA, that is. If Blount is serious this off-season, attends workouts, studies the playbook, attends OTAs, mini-camps, etc, I don't see why TB would draft another RB. They have Huggins, and they could retain Williams if they wanted to. It doesn't matter that you don't think Blount is the answer, because he has shown tremendous ability and hasn't gotten into any trouble this year since he's been in TB. Even if he is only a 2-down back, as mentioned before, his 20/80/.5 game averages make for a nice RB2, and if he improves on the TD total, he could be a borderline #1RB.
Vince Young scored a 6 on his first Wonderlic and he plays QB. 16 at RB makes Blount a genius.
You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.

 
rizzler said:
According to the STATSPASS statistical service, LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in broken tackles this season with 27.When he isn't hurdling over defenders, Blount can be quite the punishing back. It's an astounding stat, given that Blount entered Week 8 with just 21 carries on the season. He has nearly 100 fewer rushing attempts than the No. 2 back on the list, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw (23). The undrafted rookie is coming off a career-high 164 rushing yards against Seattle.Source: St. Petersburg Times Read that over twice... please. That is a simply stunning statistic. Now I'm not implying you take this guy first round, but stats like this show the ability Blount has to be a first round back. I couldn't believe this when I read it and see a bright bright future for this kid.27 broken tackles as a rookie, the league leader... it's the fine details like this that help you win (fantasy) championships.
I agree with you whole heartedly that Blount is a premier back (Edit: i guess "premier" is overstepping, i should say VERY GOOD). It is really obvious to anyone who wants to look at it objectively. However, the MASSIVE drawback, and i do say MASSIVE is the coaching in Tampa. The play calling, whether you want to say it's a good thing or a bad thing for Tampa (i believe it is horrible), one thing for sure is that it is horrible for Blount. You mentioned that he had 164 yards rushing, yet he didn't even have 1 TD. The reason is because on short yardage, if Blount is even in the game, the playcalling is passes, trick plays and the like. Even at the end of the game with a few minutes left, Blount basically carried the team to the 3 yard line. Do they reward Blount with some tries at a TD? On 1st and goal from the 10, he had just carried it to the 3. Now it is 2nd and goal from the 3 and they start passing again. They are winning by 30+ points, Blount has 164 yards, and you don't give him a "reward" of a td? A few games prior, they lost this one, it was 3rd and 1 on two different occasions early in the game --the first one they threw a 60 yard pass the second a 15 yard slant. They failed on both attempts and had to punt. Numerous times, they are inside the 5 and Blount isn't even on the field! In the same game as the last example, it was 2nd and goal from the 3 and they run a fullback pass into the endzone, lol. Not to mention, the guy had 164 yards last week and only had like 15 rushing attempts (off of memory, i think it was 15). If you are destroying a team, your running back is running all over the other team, don't you give him a few more tries than 15 carries?I'm not saying that Blount shouldn't be a top pick. I'm trying to decide myself whether i want to keep Blount for next year, I have two spots open (edit: 6 total spots, but 4 of them are already filled) and i have Jahvid Best, Crabtree, Forte and Blount as the guys competing for these 2 spots. I'm just saying that if there is a huge drawback, it is not Blount, but rather the coaching. They don't call plays very well, and certainly it is horrible play calling for fantasy in regards to Blount. Whether that changes next year is unknown.
 
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You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.
I think you are WAY overvalueing the role intelligence plays on being a successful NFL back. True, Blount has the intelligence of a soap dish, but I don't think that will make a whole bunch of difference in determining his success. I don't know if a back can be taught to catch the ball, but his limited role on third downs or when Tampa Bay was behind is a little troubling. As for short yardage, he's way too quick and powerful not to be able to overcome that. Early on in his career, Jerome Bettis had a tendency to dance around behind the lineof scrimmage and he ended up becoming a great short yardage/goalline back.I see Blount in the 8-12 range next season.
 
rizzler said:
According to the STATSPASS statistical service, LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL in broken tackles this season with 27.When he isn't hurdling over defenders, Blount can be quite the punishing back. It's an astounding stat, given that Blount entered Week 8 with just 21 carries on the season. He has nearly 100 fewer rushing attempts than the No. 2 back on the list, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw (23). The undrafted rookie is coming off a career-high 164 rushing yards against Seattle.Source: St. Petersburg Times Read that over twice... please. That is a simply stunning statistic. Now I'm not implying you take this guy first round, but stats like this show the ability Blount has to be a first round back. I couldn't believe this when I read it and see a bright bright future for this kid.27 broken tackles as a rookie, the league leader... it's the fine details like this that help you win (fantasy) championships.
I think that's pretty interesting, and I never would have seen it otherwise, so thanks for posting, but that is the kind of stat that is 'baked into' the other stats like yardage, ypc, and td's.I can look at those other stats to evaluate the guy without getting anything extra from the less obvious stats.
 
that stat is garbage. Try naming a RB that DIDN'T break one or two tackles a game and it's presented as if no one has broken two per game...cmon now.

 
I see Blount in the 8-12 range next season.
Why? He's a 1 trick pony and the Bucs has a soft soft schedule this year. He offers nothing in the passing game. I would rank him in the 20-25 range and that would be before I figure out who the RB on 3rd down is and what role the 2nd back in this offense will have. 8-12 and you are putting him in the range of Ray Rice(7th this year) and I really don't see anything like that here.
 

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