Sometimes stats don't lie... (1 Viewer)

[JuniorNB]

I see Blount in the 8-12 range next season.

Why? He's a 1 trick pony and the Bucs has a soft soft schedule this year. He offers nothing in the passing game. I would rank him in the 20-25 range and that would be before I figure out who the RB on 3rd down is and what role the 2nd back in this offense will have. 8-12 and you are putting him in the range of Ray Rice(7th this year) and I really don't see anything like that here.

Rice is better in a PPR league, but for other leagues, I bet Blount outscores him next year. I can see 12 TDs for Blount. Rice only scored in three games all year.

 

[plyka]

I don't play PPR and always fail to take that into account.

I love what I see in this kid... he's busted some huge runs.... make sick hurdles, broken the MOST tackles... and as has been stated many times over, he still only knows half the playbook.

The guy could be a steal next year... and yes, could also tank

I know the single play you're talking about when Blount made "sick hurdles". It was practially played on constant loop on ESPN that entire week. I'll admit, that was a very athletic move. But what sold me AGAINST Blount was how quickly and effortlessly he was run down by two DB's on that very play. It was like he was running in quicksand. Granted, I play in a TD-heavy, big-play bonus format, but I'm not enamored. I think he can be a "good" NFL RB for a few years. That's about it.

He's actually had 2 remarkable hurdles. The one you're talking about was awesome, but he just had another one, a carbon copy of the first one, just last Saturday against the Seahawks. I think the 2nd was better because it actually happened in a crowd, and resulted in him earning like 20-30 more yards after the hurdle.Both of them were pretty awesome, however, I would advise him against making another one. It's a very dangerous move.

 

[Bri]

What's Blount's GL stats recently? not all of 2010, recently.

Thank you

 

[Maui]

I think Blount is someone to watch and at this point an RB3 to low RB2 depending on the matchup.

 

[Rockchild]

I'm not a huge fan but that's not to say he doesn't have some value. IMO, from watching him he doesn't have a good initial burst but needs some time and space to get up to speed but once he's going he's fine. This might be why he's not good at short yardage situations. You need to hit the hole quick and hard. Again, it's just my opinion from watching him. I did own him and watched quite a bit of him before I traded him to get an idea of what I was giving up.

 

[Bayhawks]

You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.

16 is a very "normal" score for a RB. The "guys who routinely get 20-30 on that thing" are QBs, OL, some defensive positions. The wonderlic score isn't that important for RBs. Not to be blunt, but intelligence isn't that important for RBs. Athletic ability is far more important at that position. As a RB, he needs to know what hole to hit, what pass protection to be in, or what route to run-that's it. He doesn't have to dissect D's, he doesn't have to be able to audible to other plays, he doesn't have to call out blocking schemes. As I pointed out, Chris Johnson originally scored a 10, Arian Foster only scored a 19 his first time, and you wouldn't pass on either one of those guys for their (lack of) intelligence, would you?The reason he went to JC was because of poor test (SAT, ACT) scores, not grades, exactly (if I'm not mistaken). As for his track record, you're correct he has had a few stupid immature moments, but how much do you hold that against him? He got suspended for a year (1/2 a year actually), and he got into a TC fight. Did that stop Steve Smith (CAR) from being a stud? Should everyone cut Andre Johnson now, since he lost his temper on the football field? With regards to his lack of involvement in the passing game and lack of success in short-yardage, I believe those thing can be improved. I doubt he'll ever be a 50 catch RB, but based on what I've seen of his hands, he could become a 20-catch guy. Pass blocking was one of the areas that he was noted as being very good at before the draft, so that's a plus. And, as I've previously noted, he should be able to improve his short-yardage running, if he changes his running style for those type of plays. He normally waits for a hole to open, but in SY, if he'll just crash the line, he should be able to slam forward for a yard or two just based on his size/strength combo. But even if he doesn't get involved in the passing game/improve on his short yardage running, the "very avg set of stats" you note would make him the #15 RB (non-PPR) this year. As it stands right now, I wouldn't call him a first rounder, but if you have him, he's worth keeping. If you can trade for him and only have to give up 3rd (or lower) round value, I believe he's worth that. That's based on his situation this year, for a full season. If anything improves (OL additions, more involvement in the passing game, better SY running), he exceeds 3rd round value, IMO.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.

16 is a very "normal" score for a RB. The "guys who routinely get 20-30 on that thing" are QBs, OL, some defensive positions. The wonderlic score isn't that important for RBs. Not to be blunt, but intelligence isn't that important for RBs. Athletic ability is far more important at that position. As a RB, he needs to know what hole to hit, what pass protection to be in, or what route to run-that's it. He doesn't have to dissect D's, he doesn't have to be able to audible to other plays, he doesn't have to call out blocking schemes. As I pointed out, Chris Johnson originally scored a 10, Arian Foster only scored a 19 his first time, and you wouldn't pass on either one of those guys for their (lack of) intelligence, would you?The reason he went to JC was because of poor test (SAT, ACT) scores, not grades, exactly (if I'm not mistaken). As for his track record, you're correct he has had a few stupid immature moments, but how much do you hold that against him? He got suspended for a year (1/2 a year actually), and he got into a TC fight. Did that stop Steve Smith (CAR) from being a stud? Should everyone cut Andre Johnson now, since he lost his temper on the football field? With regards to his lack of involvement in the passing game and lack of success in short-yardage, I believe those thing can be improved. I doubt he'll ever be a 50 catch RB, but based on what I've seen of his hands, he could become a 20-catch guy. Pass blocking was one of the areas that he was noted as being very good at before the draft, so that's a plus. And, as I've previously noted, he should be able to improve his short-yardage running, if he changes his running style for those type of plays. He normally waits for a hole to open, but in SY, if he'll just crash the line, he should be able to slam forward for a yard or two just based on his size/strength combo. But even if he doesn't get involved in the passing game/improve on his short yardage running, the "very avg set of stats" you note would make him the #15 RB (non-PPR) this year. As it stands right now, I wouldn't call him a first rounder, but if you have him, he's worth keeping. If you can trade for him and only have to give up 3rd (or lower) round value, I believe he's worth that. That's based on his situation this year, for a full season. If anything improves (OL additions, more involvement in the passing game, better SY running), he exceeds 3rd round value, IMO.

I see, so zero chance he regresses, nothing but green pastures ahead for him. 20/80 filling up a RB slot week in and week out with no reeptions in PPR leagues is a recipe to miss the playoffs.

 

[JuniorNB]

You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.

16 is a very "normal" score for a RB. The "guys who routinely get 20-30 on that thing" are QBs, OL, some defensive positions. The wonderlic score isn't that important for RBs. Not to be blunt, but intelligence isn't that important for RBs. Athletic ability is far more important at that position. As a RB, he needs to know what hole to hit, what pass protection to be in, or what route to run-that's it. He doesn't have to dissect D's, he doesn't have to be able to audible to other plays, he doesn't have to call out blocking schemes. As I pointed out, Chris Johnson originally scored a 10, Arian Foster only scored a 19 his first time, and you wouldn't pass on either one of those guys for their (lack of) intelligence, would you?The reason he went to JC was because of poor test (SAT, ACT) scores, not grades, exactly (if I'm not mistaken). As for his track record, you're correct he has had a few stupid immature moments, but how much do you hold that against him? He got suspended for a year (1/2 a year actually), and he got into a TC fight. Did that stop Steve Smith (CAR) from being a stud? Should everyone cut Andre Johnson now, since he lost his temper on the football field? With regards to his lack of involvement in the passing game and lack of success in short-yardage, I believe those thing can be improved. I doubt he'll ever be a 50 catch RB, but based on what I've seen of his hands, he could become a 20-catch guy. Pass blocking was one of the areas that he was noted as being very good at before the draft, so that's a plus. And, as I've previously noted, he should be able to improve his short-yardage running, if he changes his running style for those type of plays. He normally waits for a hole to open, but in SY, if he'll just crash the line, he should be able to slam forward for a yard or two just based on his size/strength combo. But even if he doesn't get involved in the passing game/improve on his short yardage running, the "very avg set of stats" you note would make him the #15 RB (non-PPR) this year. As it stands right now, I wouldn't call him a first rounder, but if you have him, he's worth keeping. If you can trade for him and only have to give up 3rd (or lower) round value, I believe he's worth that. That's based on his situation this year, for a full season. If anything improves (OL additions, more involvement in the passing game, better SY running), he exceeds 3rd round value, IMO.

I see, so zero chance he regresses, nothing but green pastures ahead for him. 20/80 filling up a RB slot week in and week out with no reeptions in PPR leagues is a recipe to miss the playoffs.

I agree. In PPR leagues, Blount drops considerably. But in non-PPR leagues, I think he'll be gold.And why 20/80? You must think he's going to slide backwards. If he gets 20 carries a game based on how he performed in recent weeks, he'll be a yardage monster.

 

[atl3695]

The fact Chris Johnson took the test and got a 10, then took it again and got a 25 shows how completely useless the test is. Did he get 150% smarter between tests?

Blount has earned the feature role in Tampa and will likely give way to a third down back. He should put up Micheal Turner-lite type numbers of 1300 and 10. Nice value for a third/fourth round back in non-ppr. PPR, he probably slips to the fifth as those lack of receptions are huge.

 

[rizzler]

I see Blount around the 1000yd and 6td mark as a floor next year (provided they feature him and ditch some of their oldies)

Ill take that all day in the 3-5th round

 

[cvnpoka]

I know the single play you're talking about when Blount made "sick hurdles". It was practially played on constant loop on ESPN that entire week. I'll admit, that was a very athletic move. But what sold me AGAINST Blount was how quickly and effortlessly he was run down by two DB's on that very play. It was like he was running in quicksand. Granted, I play in a TD-heavy, big-play bonus format, but I'm not enamored. I think he can be a "good" NFL RB for a few years. That's about it.

Couple things.1-It wan't a SINGLE play. Blount has used the hurdle AT LEAST 5 times. The three most memorable were the one you are referring to that you seem to believe was the single play. The second memorable hurdle occured when he tried to hurdle a defender, was hit, and flipped into the endzone. The third occured this last weekend. There were at least 2 others that weren't highlight plays because his hurdle didn't work. The problem I see with the hurdle move (which is similar to the problem I see with Mendenhall's spin move) is that he seems to try it, A LOT. If it becomes predictable, it's not going to continue to be successful.

2-Blount weights 250+ lbs. DBs SHOULD be able to run him down. He's not a Johnson, Charles, Spiller type back that is going to kill you with his speed. His strength is, well, his strength. He has enough speed, but it's not something that is his calling card.

of the 2 hurdles that gained notoriety, on the arizona one, he was pulling away from the dbs and showing tremendous burst when a desperation dive clipped his shoe and slowed him up. it was similar to the punter touching leon washingtons foot on that kick return. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nsVdTvLnqQ

to tag onto point no2, anyone should be chased down when hurdling bc it slows them down for obv reasons.

regardless, breakaway speed is nice to have in an rb, but is certainly not the most important attribute.

 

[cvnpoka]

You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.

mop is indeed bringing up good points and the fanboys (of which i am likely included at this stage) or downplaying blounts potential mental deficiencies. grads and wonderlic are whatever and can be tossed but, beyond the punch, he has had a few other incidents. just stroll over to his wiki:

He clashed several times during the season with veteran head coach Mike Bellotti, earning a suspension for the first quarter of a November loss to the Cal Golden Bears for "not following team rules."[22]After the end of the season, he missed a number of workouts.[13] Bellotti suspended him indefinitely on February 10 for "failure to fulfill team obligations."[23]

so for everyone that thinks he is destined to pick up right where he left off, realize that there is a possibility that this season goes to his head and he refrains from working hard in the offseason. that would be devastating ofc. still, his comments to the media have been perfect and it seems he "gets it." he has a very positive outlook and repeats team oriented mantras while downplaying attention to himself. how much of it is lipservice? what are the odds he adheres to such principles even if sincere?i think hes a good gamble, but off the top of my head i think it will be 3rd or 4th when i touch him.

 

[Bayhawks]

You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.

16 is a very "normal" score for a RB. The "guys who routinely get 20-30 on that thing" are QBs, OL, some defensive positions. The wonderlic score isn't that important for RBs. Not to be blunt, but intelligence isn't that important for RBs. Athletic ability is far more important at that position. As a RB, he needs to know what hole to hit, what pass protection to be in, or what route to run-that's it. He doesn't have to dissect D's, he doesn't have to be able to audible to other plays, he doesn't have to call out blocking schemes. As I pointed out, Chris Johnson originally scored a 10, Arian Foster only scored a 19 his first time, and you wouldn't pass on either one of those guys for their (lack of) intelligence, would you?The reason he went to JC was because of poor test (SAT, ACT) scores, not grades, exactly (if I'm not mistaken). As for his track record, you're correct he has had a few stupid immature moments, but how much do you hold that against him? He got suspended for a year (1/2 a year actually), and he got into a TC fight. Did that stop Steve Smith (CAR) from being a stud? Should everyone cut Andre Johnson now, since he lost his temper on the football field? With regards to his lack of involvement in the passing game and lack of success in short-yardage, I believe those thing can be improved. I doubt he'll ever be a 50 catch RB, but based on what I've seen of his hands, he could become a 20-catch guy. Pass blocking was one of the areas that he was noted as being very good at before the draft, so that's a plus. And, as I've previously noted, he should be able to improve his short-yardage running, if he changes his running style for those type of plays. He normally waits for a hole to open, but in SY, if he'll just crash the line, he should be able to slam forward for a yard or two just based on his size/strength combo. But even if he doesn't get involved in the passing game/improve on his short yardage running, the "very avg set of stats" you note would make him the #15 RB (non-PPR) this year. As it stands right now, I wouldn't call him a first rounder, but if you have him, he's worth keeping. If you can trade for him and only have to give up 3rd (or lower) round value, I believe he's worth that. That's based on his situation this year, for a full season. If anything improves (OL additions, more involvement in the passing game, better SY running), he exceeds 3rd round value, IMO.

I see, so zero chance he regresses, nothing but green pastures ahead for him. 20/80 filling up a RB slot week in and week out with no reeptions in PPR leagues is a recipe to miss the playoffs.

I didn't say there is zero chance he regresses. Obviously you feel that there is reason to think he will do so. Please share the reasons that you think he will regress, unless that reason/reasons are just your "gut" or your personal "feelings." I haven't seen anything to indicate that the Bucs are unhappy with Blount and will try to replace him or improve upon him with another back. If you have read/seen/heard anything that indicates that, please share it.Otherwise, I'm just pointing out that EVEN IN HIS CURRENT SITUATION, he is a valuable RB2. I've made it very clear that I'm referring to non-PPR. Obviously in a PPR league, he isn't as valuable, but as I've stated before, he would be RB15 RIGHT NOW, if he had 15 games with his 80 yards/.5 TD averages. Having the 15th highest scoring RB as your FF RB2 is in no way a recipe to miss the playoffs.

 

[Bayhawks]

You can say what you like about his intelligence but he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity which coupled with going to a JC(sign of poor grades in HS) I stand by statement. You didn't disprove it by him posting a 16 on the wonderlic. Guys routinely get 20-30 on that thing. And Emmitt Smith played behind one of the best OL in the NFL ever...that's not the only reason he was good but it didn't hurt. I'm just saying that you add his age, JuCo, temper, can't find the yard on short yardage runs for a big guy...and a very avg set of stats IMO and I don't see a guy that the OP is touting as a potential 1st rounder. Especially since he is only a threat to run the ball. Anytime TB is behind then he is on the bench. We can disagree on stuff but I'm not that far off here.

mop is indeed bringing up good points and the fanboys (of which i am likely included at this stage) or downplaying blounts potential mental deficiencies. grads and wonderlic are whatever and can be tossed but, beyond the punch, he has had a few other incidents. just stroll over to his wiki:

He clashed several times during the season with veteran head coach Mike Bellotti, earning a suspension for the first quarter of a November loss to the Cal Golden Bears for "not following team rules."[22]After the end of the season, he missed a number of workouts.[13] Bellotti suspended him indefinitely on February 10 for "failure to fulfill team obligations."[23]

so for everyone that thinks he is destined to pick up right where he left off, realize that there is a possibility that this season goes to his head and he refrains from working hard in the offseason. that would be devastating ofc. still, his comments to the media have been perfect and it seems he "gets it." he has a very positive outlook and repeats team oriented mantras while downplaying attention to himself. how much of it is lipservice? what are the odds he adheres to such principles even if sincere?i think hes a good gamble, but off the top of my head i think it will be 3rd or 4th when i touch him.

I'm not sure if I'm one of these "fanboys" you're referring to, but I've previously mentioned that this off-season is VERY IMPORTANT for Blount, not only in what the Bucs do, but in the way in which he approaches it. He needs to attend offseason workouts/practices/camps/etc and he needs to focus on preparing for next season, both physically & mentally. If he does that, I don't see why the Bucs would draft/sign another RB.

 

[cvnpoka]

fanboys: no reason to downgrade this guy, he got 1k and 6 in 12 games. next year he knows the offense, gets the gl, and learns to catch. 1800 yfs and 12 tds.

haters: no talent/fails eyetest. bad attitude and will get fat. tampa obv brings in a workhorse. cant run short yardage.

 

[Mister Martie]

he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity

 

[Ministry of Pain]

he has a track record of losing his temper and shows immaturity

Exactly so I know what I speak of M&M

 

[gheemony]

How do Blount's per game stats compare to Torain's? I ask because they seem like similar players to me in term of fantasy value. Not receiving threats, question marks (durability for Torain, those mentioned above for Blount), short track records, coaching/team usage questions. Train appears to have the edge in GL usage. Hard not to rank them in the same general tier.

 

[Boone22]

How do Blount's per game stats compare to Torain's? I ask because they seem like similar players to me in term of fantasy value. Not receiving threats, question marks (durability for Torain, those mentioned above for Blount), short track records, coaching/team usage questions. Train appears to have the edge in GL usage. Hard not to rank them in the same general tier.

Torain has 4.7 ypc in a Shanny systemBlount has 5.2 ypc in a non-Shanny systemEven if we discarded the 0.5 ypc difference, I'd still rank Blount higher just because of the "Shanny Factor" with Torain.