I see it basketball and in football. Why does this sometimes happen?
I think in some cases teams aren't caught by surprise by a known good player in his second year and have a game plan ready for them... but my best guess would be that after a good rookie campaign, that maybe the player thinks he's got it all figured out and doesn't work as hard in the off season.
What do you guys think?
Because #### happens...sometimes.Seriously. Sometimes #### happens and when it does you get a "sophmore slump". So sometimes you have a slump and sometimes you don't.
Take any two year sample size from even veteran players and you'll find many instances where the second of the two years was the less sucessful year. There are so many variables at play in determining how good an NFL player's stats are (many that the player has no control over) that there is bound to be variation from year to year.
Unfortunately, when the two years you look at are a player's first two years, we act like it's some phenomenon unique to those two years when it's really not. I'd venture to say that a true sophmore slump where the player actually personally regresses in his development are pretty rare. Most sophmore slumps are caused by factors outside the players control...like injuries, personnel changes, scheme changes, game-planning, etc. But we lazily call any decrease in production a slump because we can't/won't isolate clearly the specific causes of the reduction.
Generally speaking, players do get better and do put up better numbers in later seasons. And generally a second year player is a better player than he was the year before although the amount of improvement can vary. But those numerous variables are always in play and the net result, even after you factor in the player's personal development, can be a reduction from last year's numbers.
But unlike what some have posted, I don't agree that a strong rookie performance is just as likely to be one year wonder as is a breakout performance by a later year player. If that were the case, you'd see more players than there are with their rookie year being their best year.
If a player is talented enough to start over vets and produce his rookie year, I'll bet on him to better those numbers in later seasons. His odds of having #### happen to him are pretty much equal regardless of what year he is in, so I might as well bet on him as a sophmore since his learning curve provides some positive movement and his body is still able to perform.
