Staff Value Plays Article Posted (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

LINKAGE

Always a good read.

 

[LHUCKS]

I enjoy this because aside from customized draft strategy, this type of article gets to the heart of how you win at ff...understanding where the value is and isn't.

Some quick notes:

- Cedric Benson seems to be the most controversial player, which makes sense.

- A lot of McNair love, he'll probably be on zero of my teams this year...low ppg.

- Crumpler has multiple comments on both sides, again I think this makes sense since nobody has a crystal ball with the Vick situation or with Petrino's target intentions.

I'll read in more detail later, but these were the three players that jumped out to me.

 

[David Yudkin]

- A lot of McNair love, he'll probably be on zero of my teams this year...low ppg.

Even though I threw my hat in the VALUE camp for McNair I doubt I will have him at all either. IMO, he's getting drafted in the late 20s and may have an upside of the late teens. By definition that may make him a decent value pick but probably not a fantasy difference maker. He may be the perfect pairing for someone that invests early in someone like Manning/Palmer/Brady in that you won't really need him and he could be a decent bye week or short term injury fill-in.

 

[LHUCKS]

He may be the perfect pairing for someone that invests early in someone like Manning/Palmer/Brady in that you won't really need him and he could be a decent bye week or short term injury fill-in.

Yeah, but you can pick up guys like that or easily acquire them in trades in most leagues. I hear what you're saying though and if you're in a deep league where solid starters are hard to come by he's probably worth a bit more than the #27 QB...I'm just not in many of those leagues.

 

[BassNBrew]

FYI...the links don't work 2 pages deep.

 

[wannabee]

FYI...the links don't work 2 pages deep.

I found this, too. I had to back arrow back to intro page and the links work from there

 

[-OZ-]

He may be the perfect pairing for someone that invests early in someone like Manning/Palmer/Brady in that you won't really need him and he could be a decent bye week or short term injury fill-in.

Yeah, but you can pick up guys like that or easily acquire them in trades in most leagues. I hear what you're saying though and if you're in a deep league where solid starters are hard to come by he's probably worth a bit more than the #27 QB...I'm just not in many of those leagues.

Good point. And I appreciate including those players that only matter in deep leagues. (upcoming draft with 14 teams, 2 QB, 8 RB/WR starters)No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts. I was surprised to see Peterson as undervalued, but then I checked his ADP/Rank. Now the owners will adjust, and these values will cease being values.

 

[BassNBrew]

Always an enjoyable article. Yudkin is bringing it this year. Not a big fan of Pasquino's selections. One area several people missed the boat is using ADP to translate to historical points and then saying someone is under valued because they won't play enough to amass those points. PPG is the mark I'm interested in. I can replace those points with a replacement in the interim.

 

[EBF]

I like the Henry and Peterson picks. Lots of upside at their ADP. Not wild about Benson. Too boom-or-bust for my taste.

Everyone is sleeping on Thomas Jones this year. If Pennington stays healthy, Jones should have a top 8-16 season.

I think Roethlisberger was a solid selection by those who named him. He could really be poised for a big year. Even if he just duplicates last year's numbers, he'll be a solid value.

I also agree that Vince Young should be avoided like the plague. He won't surprise anyone next season and he still has the worst WRs in the league. He has a chance to be a star, but there aren't a lot of things working in his favor this season.

On the flipside, I disagree that McNabb is overrated. He's one of the few QBs in the league who can carry a FF team and his supporting cast is still quite strong. I think he'll remain a quality starter. And while the injuries are an issue, I'd chalk that up to bad luck more than anything.

My top WR sleepers this year (Curry, Curtis, Reg. Williams, Holmes) didn't get a lot of love, but I think these guys could surprise. They all have a somewhat realistic shot at 1,000 yards.

 

[Ned]

bloom's comments are missing from crumpler in the overrated te piece.

 

[Ned]

is there a way to post a page showing it from each writer's perspective instead of by position?

 

[Blue-Kun]

Finally somebody else sees that Bruce still brings a lot to the table considering where he's going in most drafts.

 

[Couch Potato]

I think this article is over-under-rated every year.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

I think this is crazy-talk, Dave:

David Yudkin - In most seasons, the #16 tight end typically scores in the vicinity of 60 fantasy points. In the past ten years, there have been only eight rookie tight ends that have scored that many points in their rookie seasons (out of 290 rookie tight ends that have played in that time). Olsen, however, has to deal with the presence of Desmond Clark, who ranked 8th last year. Being a rookie and splitting time with Clark should be enough to scare away most savvy fantasy owners in all but the largest of redraft leagues. Look for Olsen to blossom in the future, but investing a 13th round pick may be too steep a price for this year.

13th round? I can have 5 RBs, 5 WRs and 2 QBs, and you think it would still be too early to take this guy?

 

[lebowski]

One thing I REALLY think FBG's needs to consider doing is offering printable formats for articles like this. As great as technology and computers are some people don't want to sit in front of it all day. Is there anyway you could offer this?

 

[gman8343]

Awesome article. Great work.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think this is crazy-talk, Dave:

David Yudkin - In most seasons, the #16 tight end typically scores in the vicinity of 60 fantasy points. In the past ten years, there have been only eight rookie tight ends that have scored that many points in their rookie seasons (out of 290 rookie tight ends that have played in that time). Olsen, however, has to deal with the presence of Desmond Clark, who ranked 8th last year. Being a rookie and splitting time with Clark should be enough to scare away most savvy fantasy owners in all but the largest of redraft leagues. Look for Olsen to blossom in the future, but investing a 13th round pick may be too steep a price for this year.

13th round? I can have 5 RBs, 5 WRs and 2 QBs, and you think it would still be too early to take this guy?

Yes. For the reasons I listed there and likely some others. But don't take my word on it, look at what others think . . .From the FBG Projections:

David Dodds 42 fantasy points

Bob Henry 39

Jason Wood 26

Maurile Tremblay 57

Average FBG Staff Ranking: 26th

He's not even a starting NFL TE. How many TE2s have any value? In most normal size leagues, Olsen probably shouldn't even be drafted let alone be a 13th round pick. If people want to essentially give picks away without much chance of getting anything out of them, by all means take Olsen.

 

[remote controller]

Qb's Under- Green, Delhomme

Qb's over- McNabb, Leinart

Rb's Under- Jacobs, Thomas Jones

Rb's Over- Maroney, Benson

Wr's Under- Hackett, Henderson

Wr's Over- DJax, Curtis

Te's Under- Scaife, Cooley

Te's over- Winslow, Watson

 

[Pittsburgh United]

I think this is crazy-talk, Dave:

David Yudkin - In most seasons, the #16 tight end typically scores in the vicinity of 60 fantasy points. In the past ten years, there have been only eight rookie tight ends that have scored that many points in their rookie seasons (out of 290 rookie tight ends that have played in that time). Olsen, however, has to deal with the presence of Desmond Clark, who ranked 8th last year. Being a rookie and splitting time with Clark should be enough to scare away most savvy fantasy owners in all but the largest of redraft leagues. Look for Olsen to blossom in the future, but investing a 13th round pick may be too steep a price for this year.

13th round? I can have 5 RBs, 5 WRs and 2 QBs, and you think it would still be too early to take this guy?

Yes. For the reasons I listed there and likely some others. But don't take my word on it, look at what others think . . .From the FBG Projections:

David Dodds 42 fantasy points

Bob Henry 39

Jason Wood 26

Maurile Tremblay 57

Average FBG Staff Ranking: 26th

He's not even a starting NFL TE. How many TE2s have any value? In most normal size leagues, Olsen probably shouldn't even be drafted let alone be a 13th round pick. If people want to essentially give picks away without much chance of getting anything out of them, by all means take Olsen.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the dice. And when it comes to fantasy football, TE is the one position where I don't mind doing so.

 

[Doug Drinen]

One thing I REALLY think FBG's needs to consider doing is offering printable formats for articles like this. As great as technology and computers are some people don't want to sit in front of it all day. Is there anyway you could offer this?

We're working on it. Not sure exactly when we'll have something ready to go, but we're working on it.Thanks for your patience.

 

[H.K.]

Kudos to the following:

Mike Brown - Only guy to see Brandon Jacobs in a hopeless situation

Pasquino & Grant - Did not overlook the obvious that Cutler has destroyed Javon Walker

 

[Toads]

Surprised that there's no mention of Michael Vick as an under-rated QB.

He'll still have top 12 value....always has, always will.

Bark. Bark.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Surprised that there's no mention of Michael Vick as an under-rated QB.

He'll still have top 12 value....always has, always will.

Bark. Bark.

he was one of my picks. seems like some players got left off.

 

[OCC]

I think this is crazy-talk, Dave:

David Yudkin - In most seasons, the #16 tight end typically scores in the vicinity of 60 fantasy points. In the past ten years, there have been only eight rookie tight ends that have scored that many points in their rookie seasons (out of 290 rookie tight ends that have played in that time). Olsen, however, has to deal with the presence of Desmond Clark, who ranked 8th last year. Being a rookie and splitting time with Clark should be enough to scare away most savvy fantasy owners in all but the largest of redraft leagues. Look for Olsen to blossom in the future, but investing a 13th round pick may be too steep a price for this year.

13th round? I can have 5 RBs, 5 WRs and 2 QBs, and you think it would still be too early to take this guy?

Uh yah.Rookie TE? On the Bears? Who's the QB?

Olsen is ranked TE25. So unless your league starts 3 TEs, it's a tad early for Olsen. In a redraft, he shouldn't even be drafted. It would be a minor miracle if he even gets 50 targets. There's 30 TEs I'd take before Olsen.

 

[Tau837]

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

Is there any study that shows a pattern for QBs in their second year? Some staffers cited the likelihood for regression in a QB's second year. I'm inclined to disbelieve that point, unless someone has some evidence to support it.As far as whether or not youth at QB is overrated, look at the candidates.Vince Young - ADP is QB7. Finished last season as QB12. Poor supporting cast... I agree he is slightly overrated.Matt Leinart - ADP is QB8. Finished last season as QB24 in what amounted to about 11 games. I agree he is overrated.Philip Rivers - ADP is QB10. Finished last season as QB9. Supporting cast is the same or better. Coaching staff turnover is a wild card. Don't see a compelling reason to say he is overrated at that ADP, although there may not be much upside there.Cutler - ADP is QB14. Finished last season as QB40 but only played 5 games. This will amount to his first year as a starter. I agree he is overrated.Romo - ADP is QB9. Finished last season as QB19 in about 11 games. IMO he is ranked about right.Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? Not counting his partial year in 2005? Smith's ADP is QB17. Last year he was QB18, and it is reasonable to think he might improve slightly. Doesn't seem to be overrated.IMO there is no trend here. There are a few who are overrated and a few who are rated about right.

 

[lebowski]

One thing I REALLY think FBG's needs to consider doing is offering printable formats for articles like this. As great as technology and computers are some people don't want to sit in front of it all day. Is there anyway you could offer this?

We're working on it. Not sure exactly when we'll have something ready to go, but we're working on it.Thanks for your patience.

thanks Doug. I have subscribed to other sites in the past and one thing they offered was printable formats. Those of us who refuse to buy magazines would greatly appreciate it.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think this is crazy-talk, Dave:

David Yudkin - In most seasons, the #16 tight end typically scores in the vicinity of 60 fantasy points. In the past ten years, there have been only eight rookie tight ends that have scored that many points in their rookie seasons (out of 290 rookie tight ends that have played in that time). Olsen, however, has to deal with the presence of Desmond Clark, who ranked 8th last year. Being a rookie and splitting time with Clark should be enough to scare away most savvy fantasy owners in all but the largest of redraft leagues. Look for Olsen to blossom in the future, but investing a 13th round pick may be too steep a price for this year.

13th round? I can have 5 RBs, 5 WRs and 2 QBs, and you think it would still be too early to take this guy?

Absolutely. Because by implication you're looking at Olsen as your starting TE. Makes no sense, unless you know something abut Desmond Clark's health that we don't.

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

Is there any study that shows a pattern for QBs in their second year? Some staffers cited the likelihood for regression in a QB's second year. I'm inclined to disbelieve that point, unless someone has some evidence to support it.As far as whether or not youth at QB is overrated, look at the candidates.

Vince Young - ADP is QB7. Finished last season as QB12. Poor supporting cast... I agree he is slightly overrated.

Matt Leinart - ADP is QB8. Finished last season as QB24 in what amounted to about 11 games. I agree he is overrated.

Philip Rivers - ADP is QB10. Finished last season as QB9. Supporting cast is the same or better. Coaching staff turnover is a wild card. Don't see a compelling reason to say he is overrated at that ADP, although there may not be much upside there.

Cutler - ADP is QB14. Finished last season as QB40 but only played 5 games. This will amount to his first year as a starter. I agree he is overrated.

Romo - ADP is QB9. Finished last season as QB19 in about 11 games. IMO he is ranked about right.

Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? Not counting his partial year in 2005? Smith's ADP is QB17. Last year he was QB18, and it is reasonable to think he might improve slightly. Doesn't seem to be overrated.

IMO there is no trend here. There are a few who are overrated and a few who are rated about right.

Tarvaris Jackson

 

[Tau837]

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

... Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? ...

Tarvaris Jackson

Jackson wasn't cited in the article as overvalued.

 

[Jason Wood]

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

... Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? ...

Tarvaris Jackson

Jackson wasn't cited in the article as overvalued.

Sorry, thought you were asking who the 6th 2nd year starter was...maybe he meant Damon Huard?

 

[Tau837]

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

... Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? ...

Tarvaris Jackson

Jackson wasn't cited in the article as overvalued.

Sorry, thought you were asking who the 6th 2nd year starter was...maybe he meant Damon Huard?

It's really not a big deal, but the QBs mentioned in the overrated article were: Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Leinart, Young, Alex Smith, Eli, McNabb, Brees, Culpepper, and Schaub. I think there are only 5 second year starters in the article.

 

[Jason Wood]

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

... Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? ...

Tarvaris Jackson

Jackson wasn't cited in the article as overvalued.

Sorry, thought you were asking who the 6th 2nd year starter was...maybe he meant Damon Huard?

It's really not a big deal, but the QBs mentioned in the overrated article were: Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Leinart, Young, Alex Smith, Eli, McNabb, Brees, Culpepper, and Schaub. I think there are only 5 second year starters in the article.

2nd year AS starters, or 2-year players who are slated to start? Reason I ask is becaues obviously Romo wouldn't fit the 2nd bill...this is his 5th season.

 

[Couch Potato]

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

Most of us are seeing Herron as borderline rosterable and not in the hunt for the starting job at all.

 

[Jason Wood]

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

I thought about it...but that's very much a "hunch" pick until we see how the RB corps shakes out in Green Bay. I'm not sold on Brandon Jackson nor do I think Vernand Morency has done enough to be considered a lock. At the end of the day though, I could very easily see myself bringing Herron's numbers wayyyyyyyy down if it becomes clear that he doesn't have a fighting chance to win the job. And since these articles stick around for posterity, I don't want someone printing this out on August 25th and taking Noah Herron on a late round flier because of something I said two months ago that I no longer believe.

 

[Tau837]

No surprise to see 6 of the overvalued QBs are 2nd year starters. Same for RBs. That seems to be the one constant throughout the years, youth is overrated in redrafts.

... Not sure who your 6th second year starter is... Alex Smith? ...

Tarvaris Jackson

Jackson wasn't cited in the article as overvalued.

Sorry, thought you were asking who the 6th 2nd year starter was...maybe he meant Damon Huard?

It's really not a big deal, but the QBs mentioned in the overrated article were: Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Leinart, Young, Alex Smith, Eli, McNabb, Brees, Culpepper, and Schaub. I think there are only 5 second year starters in the article.

2nd year AS starters, or 2-year players who are slated to start? Reason I ask is becaues obviously Romo wouldn't fit the 2nd bill...this is his 5th season.

The quote is right there and bolded. Second year starters.

 

[Couch Potato]

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

I thought about it...but that's very much a "hunch" pick until we see how the RB corps shakes out in Green Bay. I'm not sold on Brandon Jackson nor do I think Vernand Morency has done enough to be considered a lock. At the end of the day though, I could very easily see myself bringing Herron's numbers wayyyyyyyy down if it becomes clear that he doesn't have a fighting chance to win the job. And since these articles stick around for posterity, I don't want someone printing this out on August 25th and taking Noah Herron on a late round flier because of something I said two months ago that I no longer believe.

Thanks Jason. This gives me an insight on your thinking there and makes sense regarding not including him in the article.Plus they could sign Dillon between now and September to steal some carries too, and then the whole thing gets even blurrier.

 

[Keith Lewis]

Awesome read, the staff just flat out gets "it" on many players.

This one stood out and is nothing but the truth:

DeAngelo Williams - CAR - ADP: 45 overall, RB 25 2 votes for OVERRATED. RB #25 gets 0 votes for under, 2 for over. I agree completely. Yudkin sums it up all too well with this "This looks like a RBBC in every sense of the word, and splitting up a small pie does not normally provide very big slices."

 

[Keith Lewis]

Surprised that there's no mention of Michael Vick as an under-rated QB.

He'll still have top 12 value....always has, always will.

Bark. Bark.

Vick is the most underrated player in fantasy football, easily. The utter hatred for Vick and bias has led me to a few titles. Vick has gone 3,12,10,4 in all 4 years where he started in FBG scoring and in my scoring system it was 2, 8, 7, 2 (1 whole fantasy point behind Manning). Yet I have seen him going as the 25th or so QB taken in drafts this season, unbelievable.

 

[nygiants56]

LINKAGE

Always a good read.

great work guys! Yudkin was DEAD-ON with his analysis of Drew Brees,and how he's overvalued! The Saints won't sneak up on anyone this season, they play a MUCH tougher schedule, and teams have spent all offseason studying ways to stop Reggie Bush. As Yudkin pointed out Brees isn't going to suffer a dramatic fall from the top 3 rankings, but he's likely to finish somewhere around QB10-12.

Bloom/Yudkin/Wood - great analysis of Chrissy Brown! keep that on the down-low, please! he could be a top 20 RB this season, if not higher, IF he can just stay healthy. Travis Henry ran up a storm there, last season,and Fisher's team's always seem to run the ball well..

Wood - the Bears let TJ go, because they had $40 mil invested in Benson, plain and simple. The Bears are known as one of,if not the cheapest teams in the NFL..they're going to try to extract blood from a stone with Benson this season, and as Pasquino noted, Adrian Peterson is the guy to look out for in Chicago. Benson couldn't kick TJ to the curb last season, despite being handed the starting gig in training camp. He's a soft RB..keep an eye on A. Peterson!

I'm surprised only 1 person thought Betts was undervalued. Portis has done NOTHING since arriving in Washington, and will attack opponents with a hard running style and a surgically repaired shoulder. He won't even be the opening day starter. Even if he's healthy, there's no guarantee that he beats out Betts in preaseason.

Betts is the real deal.

Bloom was the ONLY guy to call Edge James 'undervalued'. He's right. Grimm and Whisenhunt have impressive resumes when it comes to coaching the O-line and propping up the running game..they'll turn that Az o-line around in no time.Az plays an easy scheduled against the run, including games against N.O., Seattle, St Louis, Atl duing the final 4 weeks of the season. Flat-out JUICY matchups for Edge!!

Yudkin is high on Ahman Green,yet down on AJ, considering him overvalued?? IF Green gets that running game going as Yudkin suspects he will, then in theory, the running game will open things up for AJ down the field, as team's focus on stopping the run by putting more men at the line of scrimmage. A productive Ahman Green will also give the Texans a huge upswing in Time of Possession. Last season, Houston finished 27th in TOP..AJ caught 103 balls, on a team that barely had its offense on the field. thats how special AJ is..103 catches on a team that was constantly going 3-and-out..! factor in the ever-improving Houston defense, and there's another reason to love the Texans this season...

only 1 person thought that Matt Jones was overvalued?! , that should have been unanimous, no?

Thank you for showing us Witten fans, that we're not alone! this guy is so undervalued, its scary.

Pasquino NAILED it with Ben Watson! he's overvalued fluff..on a team WITHOUT Moss , Stallworth, Welker, Watson managed just 49 catches last season, a career year for him. Now , add these three WR's , and a good-hands RB like Maroney , and Watson will be hard pressed to catch half that number of balls in 2007...

 

[Brewzers]

I also agree that Vince Young should be avoided like the plague. He won't surprise anyone next season and he still has the worst WRs in the league. He has a chance to be a star, but there aren't a lot of things working in his favor this season.

This seems to be very popular opinion. I'm not buying the Vince Young is over rated hype. His situation was much worse last year. They had a young, unproven O-line, an effed up QB situation and seemingly no team cohesion. I remember those FBG forum worst NFL team polls and TEN, OAK, HOU & MIA were well entrenched. VY was thrust into the starting lineup in week 4, way before he was ready, baptism by fire! He did very well. His completion % improved to 56% over the last eight games and his use of running as a weapon also improved over the back half of the season. This year we know his O-line is solid. I don't think its unrealistic thinking that you can swap Travis Henry for Chris Brown or Len Dale and not miss a beat. He loses Drew Bennett 46-737-3 and Bobby Wade 33-461-2, that hardly seems irreplaceable. VY seemed to develop a nice repoire with Brandon Jones and Bo Scaife, I'd look for an uptick in their production along with FB Ahmard Hall. Someone will need to emerge from the Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby, Paul Williams pack or I can see the Titans securing a veteran WR before the season starts. I'm in a league where passing TD's = 4 pts, I'd be thrilled to get VY at QB 7.

 

[EBF]

I also agree that Vince Young should be avoided like the plague. He won't surprise anyone next season and he still has the worst WRs in the league. He has a chance to be a star, but there aren't a lot of things working in his favor this season.

This seems to be very popular opinion. I'm not buying the Vince Young is over rated hype. His situation was much worse last year. They had a young, unproven O-line, an effed up QB situation and seemingly no team cohesion. I remember those FBG forum worst NFL team polls and TEN, OAK, HOU & MIA were well entrenched. VY was thrust into the starting lineup in week 4, way before he was ready, baptism by fire! He did very well. His completion % improved to 56% over the last eight games and his use of running as a weapon also improved over the back half of the season. This year we know his O-line is solid. I don't think its unrealistic thinking that you can swap Travis Henry for Chris Brown or Len Dale and not miss a beat. He loses Drew Bennett 46-737-3 and Bobby Wade 33-461-2, that hardly seems irreplaceable. VY seemed to develop a nice repoire with Brandon Jones and Bo Scaife, I'd look for an uptick in their production along with FB Ahmard Hall. Someone will need to emerge from the Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby, Paul Williams pack or I can see the Titans securing a veteran WR before the season starts. I'm in a league where passing TD's = 4 pts, I'd be thrilled to get VY at QB 7.

I think his rushing totals will come back to Earth slightly and he'll be forced to throw more. Given the weak options he has at WR, I'll be surprised if he's very successful. No one expected him to do well last season and I think that's part of the reason he succeeded. But you can bet teams will be more prepared for him in 2007. He has a lot of potential and he might be good enough to overcome his weak supporting cast, but I don't see the sense in risking it when you can get a guy with similar short-term potential several rounds later.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

I thought about it...but that's very much a "hunch" pick until we see how the RB corps shakes out in Green Bay. I'm not sold on Brandon Jackson nor do I think Vernand Morency has done enough to be considered a lock. At the end of the day though, I could very easily see myself bringing Herron's numbers wayyyyyyyy down if it becomes clear that he doesn't have a fighting chance to win the job. And since these articles stick around for posterity, I don't want someone printing this out on August 25th and taking Noah Herron on a late round flier because of something I said two months ago that I no longer believe.

Jason - I respect both your contributions to this board and your viewpoint in general. But you're missing the boat on Noah Herron. If you really believe that he'll finish as #29 RB, I'd encourage you to watch Packers game film from last year. He's simply not a starting RB. Hard working guy, good pass catching back, eager/willing blocker - yes. Large enough to shake off defenders, able to make people miss, vision to see holes in the line, speed to make a difference - no. He's a special teams player at worst, a 3rd down back at best. I hear what you're saying about Morency and Jackson - neither is exactly reliable. But Herron isn't the answer either. The only way he finishes #29 is if both Morency and Jackson suffer season-ending injuries early in the year, and he has a Nick Goings-like opportunity.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm surprised only 1 person thought Betts was undervalued. Portis has done NOTHING since arriving in Washington and will attack opponents with a hard running style and a surgically repaired shoulder. He won't even be the opening day starter. Even if he's healthy, there's no guarantee that he beats out Betts in preaseason.

Betts is the real deal.

Injury is a concern, sure. But I only assume you're joking with the bolded part.A healthy Portis is a lock to start over Betts.

 

[Brewzers]

I also agree that Vince Young should be avoided like the plague. He won't surprise anyone next season and he still has the worst WRs in the league. He has a chance to be a star, but there aren't a lot of things working in his favor this season.

This seems to be very popular opinion. I'm not buying the Vince Young is over rated hype. His situation was much worse last year. They had a young, unproven O-line, an effed up QB situation and seemingly no team cohesion. I remember those FBG forum worst NFL team polls and TEN, OAK, HOU & MIA were well entrenched. VY was thrust into the starting lineup in week 4, way before he was ready, baptism by fire! He did very well. His completion % improved to 56% over the last eight games and his use of running as a weapon also improved over the back half of the season. This year we know his O-line is solid. I don't think its unrealistic thinking that you can swap Travis Henry for Chris Brown or Len Dale and not miss a beat. He loses Drew Bennett 46-737-3 and Bobby Wade 33-461-2, that hardly seems irreplaceable. VY seemed to develop a nice repoire with Brandon Jones and Bo Scaife, I'd look for an uptick in their production along with FB Ahmard Hall. Someone will need to emerge from the Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby, Paul Williams pack or I can see the Titans securing a veteran WR before the season starts. I'm in a league where passing TD's = 4 pts, I'd be thrilled to get VY at QB 7.

I think his rushing totals will come back to Earth slightly and he'll be forced to throw more. Given the weak options he has at WR, I'll be surprised if he's very successful. No one expected him to do well last season and I think that's part of the reason he succeeded. But you can bet teams will be more prepared for him in 2007. He has a lot of potential and he might be good enough to overcome his weak supporting cast, but I don't see the sense in risking it when you can get a guy with similar short-term potential several rounds later.

I understand all the arguments and I don't blame anyone for thinking that way. I just don't subscribe. Vince is not a running QB like Vick is. He reads the defense. If they give him running lanes, he takes them because he has that ability. Very often, those lanes open up on 3rd down passing situations when the LBs & DBs turn their back on him. This is when he is most dangerous. So its hard to say what his rushing stats will be, depends on what the defense gives him. Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer. As far as the WR corp...Drew Bennett & Bobby Wade vs Brandon Jones & Roydell Willams? C'mon, he didn't have any name brand WRs last year. I honestly believe that TEN will get a WR if they need one prior to the start of the season. I would be much more leary of Tony Romo (he has TO & Glenn) and Eli Manning (Plax, Toomer & Shockey) at QB than Vince.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm surprised only 1 person thought Betts was undervalued. Portis has done NOTHING since arriving in Washington and will attack opponents with a hard running style and a surgically repaired shoulder. He won't even be the opening day starter. Even if he's healthy, there's no guarantee that he beats out Betts in preaseason.

Betts is the real deal.

Injury is a concern, sure. But I only assume you're joking with the bolded part.A healthy Portis is a lock to start over Betts.

If averaging 102 yards from scrimmage and 0.64 TD per game = NOTHING, then I agree he's useless.

 

[LHUCKS]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

 

[-OZ-]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

Do you have the same reaction with Leinart? or does the 5% (51.5 to 56.8) make that much of a difference?I would think the 56% with Boldin and Fitz would make an objective fan cringe more.

 

[Brewzers]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

LHUCKS, he improved to 56% over his last 8 games vs 46% in the first 8. I'm not saying 56% is reason to jump & shout, but the uptick is pretty significant. If he maintains 56% in 2007, he will exceed his ADP. If he exceeds 56%......

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

Do you have the same reaction with Leinart? or does the 5% (51.5 to 56.8) make that much of a difference?I would think the 56% with Boldin and Fitz would make an objective fan cringe more.

Given that Leinart / AZ throws deeper (Yards Per Attempt is higher for Leinart at 6.8) I don't begrudge Leinart's completion percentage.When your YPA is just over 6 and you're completing just over 50%, there's an issue. (VY - 6.2 YPA, 51.5%).

 

[Brewzers]

Obviously, Vince has to be an effective passer in the NFL to be successful....there is the risk in most peoples mind. They look at his throwing motion and automatically assume bad passer. It makes you cringe when you see it, kind of like Jim Furyk's golf swing. However, I've seen VY play so many games, I know he is a good, accurate passer.

What makes me cringe is his completion percentage, I could care less about mechanics as some of the greatest QBs in the history of the game had awkward throwing motions.

Do you have the same reaction with Leinart? or does the 5% (51.5 to 56.8) make that much of a difference?I would think the 56% with Boldin and Fitz would make an objective fan cringe more.

Given that Leinart / AZ throws deeper (Yards Per Attempt is higher for Leinart at 6.8) I don't begrudge Leinart's completion percentage.When your YPA is just over 6 and you're completing just over 50%, there's an issue. (VY - 6.2 YPA, 51.5%).

It was pretty common knowledge that Leinart was the most NFL ready QB of the "3", so the 2006 season stats don't surprise me. If you look at Vince's last 8 games, his YPA was a respectable 6.9 with 56% completion, add in rushing yds and his fantasy numbers become quite awesome.I know you can't always just selectively look at a players 2nd half of the season stats and ignore the first half, but it seems like a logical analysis for Vince's rookie year.

 

[BassNBrew]

I sort of expected to see a Jason Wood writeup for Noah Herron in upside RBs since Jason's ranking him 29th with 163 FP.

I thought about it...but that's very much a "hunch" pick until we see how the RB corps shakes out in Green Bay. I'm not sold on Brandon Jackson nor do I think Vernand Morency has done enough to be considered a lock. At the end of the day though, I could very easily see myself bringing Herron's numbers wayyyyyyyy down if it becomes clear that he doesn't have a fighting chance to win the job. And since these articles stick around for posterity, I don't want someone printing this out on August 25th and taking Noah Herron on a late round flier because of something I said two months ago that I no longer believe.

LOL...I don't want my opinion to become part of the record, but screw the guys with drafts in July