BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Start 'em or sit 'em
Tough lineup decisions for Week Five
By Court E. Mann
Oct. 6, 2006
From week to week, your players’ fantasy fortunes can fluctuate wildly from touchdown hog to missing person. How else can you explain just 39 combined rushing yards from Chester and Fred Taylor in Week Four?
The truth is that outside of the elite offensive weapons — and even them, from time to time — fantasy production can be a lot more inconsistent than we desire. A player’s opponent, location, health, motivation, love life, even his pregame breakfast can have a significant impact on his numbers in any given week. “Start ’Em or Sit ’Em” aims to elucidate those factors to help you set your lineup. We’ve identified a few weekly regulars you should consider sending to the pine and a few reserves you may want to move up your depth chart.
Quarterbacks
Brett Favre, Packers (vs. STL)
Did you know that Favre has made 225 consecutive starts? Tony Kornheiser may have mentioned it a couple hundred times last Monday night, which all but ensured that Favre would take at least one shot by the end of the game. Brett will play in Week Five, and he very well may find himself in a shootout. The last three times these two teams have met, the total has soared over 55 points. Favre struggled last week, but the Rams are not the Eagles.
Decision: START
Mark Brunell, Redskins (@ NYG)
Put all preconceived notions about Brunell aside, because this recommendation comes straight from the “numbers don’t lie” department of justification. Brunell is undeniably hot (590 yards, four TDs in his last two games), and the Giants' defense has been just awful. The last two QBs to face them (Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb) have combined for 577 yards and seven TDs.
Decision: START
Matt Leinart, Cardinals (vs. KC)
The move from Kurt Warner to Leinart should pay fantasy dividends in time, and I wouldn’t hesitate to use the rest of your Cardinals weapons this week. However, it’s tough to count on a rookie passer making his first career start. The Chiefs just made mincemeat of young signalcaller Alex Smith last Sunday, and you can bet Herm Edwards will bring the heat on Leinart as well.
Decision: SIT
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (@ SD)
Big Ben will right the ship eventually, but this week doesn’t offer much promise. The Chargers have added a pass defense to their annual stout run unit. Check out the totals they’ve ceded to three opposing QBs: Steve McNair (158 yards, two TDs), Kerry Collins/Vince Young (163 yards, one TD), and Aaron Brooks/Andrew Walter (96 yards, zero TDs). Sure, those QBs are not Dan Marino, but Big Ben’s zero TDs and five picks aren’t much better.
Decision: SIT
Running backs
Fred Taylor, Jaguars (vs. NYJ)
One of the toughest things to do in fantasy football is not to let a bad performance the previous week cloud your judgment the following Sunday. Taylor had a whopping 16 yards on seven carries against the Skins, but the Jets bring one of the worst run defenses in football to Jacksonville in Week Five. Thus far they’ve yielded monster fantasy digits to the Chris Brown/Travis Henry tandem (86 yards, two TDs), the Corey Dillon/Laurence Maroney duo (145 yards, two TDs), Willis McGahee (150 yards) and the Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai combo (159 yards, two TDs).
Decision: START
Reggie Bush, Saints (vs. TB)
Bush is also coming off a disappointing Week Four effort, totaling only 70 yards and extending his scoreless streak to four games to start his career. The once-vaunted Bucs defense has taken more than a step back and currently ranks 31st in the NFL against the run. With Bruce Gradkowski under center for Tampa, the Saints should have a lead to protect, meaning plenty of opportunities for both Bush and Deuce McAllister.
Decision: START
Reuben Droughns, Browns (@ CAR)
Just because Droughns put up some numbers against the Raiders, don’t be fooled into thinking that his shoulder and his offensive line are no longer serious issues. If you missed Sunday’s game between the Browns and Raiders — and judging by the Nielsen ratings, you did — Droughns was in noticeable pain throughout and had to take a number of plays off. He remains questionable on the injury report and faces a Panthers defense that has stiffened significantly in the last two weeks. Neither Cadillac Williams nor Deuce McAllister nor Reggie Bush topped 48 yards rushing vs. Carolina.
Decision: SIT
Kevan Barlow, Jets (@ JAX)
Sorry to say, but despite his two-touchdown outing last Sunday, Barlow is not the answer to the Jets’ nonexistent running game. At this point, with his 2.9 yards per carry and his 36 yards per game, he’s little more than a glorified goal-line back. Let’s not forget that the last time we saw the Jags at home, they were shutting out Willie Parker and the Steelers.
Decision: SIT
Wide receivers
Isaac Bruce, Rams (@ GB)
Fresh off his first 100-yard game of the season, Bruce draws arguably the most favorable matchup a receiver can find. The Packers, dead last in the NFL in pass defense, have already given up 28 plays of 16 yards or more, and you may have seen Greg Lewis (two TDs) running wild on them last Monday night. The last time Bruce faced the Pack, two years ago at Lambeau, he rolled up 170 receiving yards.
Decision: START
Troy Williamson, Vikings (vs. DET)
With only three TDs on offense all season, the Vikings desperately need to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Unlike their last two opponents, the Bears and Bills, the Lions are pretty much helpless to stop an offense from executing, especially in the passing game. They’ve surrendered an astounding 955 yards and 10 TDs through the air in their last three games.
Decision: START
Lee Evans, Bills (@ CHI)
After just four catches in his first two games, Evans has surged back into significance with 15 catches and 197 yards in his last two tilts. Unfortunately, the Monsters of the Midway are not likely to allow that pattern to continue. They’ve yet to allow a passing score this season and have held eight straight regular-season visitors to less than 10 points at Soldier Field.
Decision: SIT
Joey Galloway, Buccaneers (@ NO)
I’m not sure I can justify a single Tampa player for your Week Five fantasy lineup. Not only are they starting a rookie under center, but they have also lost ORT Kenyatta Walker for the season to a knee injury. Galloway has one big game this season, and in the two others combined, he caught one pass. Let’s see what Gradkowski brings to the table before we rely on his offense in fantasy play.
Decision: SIT
Tight ends
Desmond Clark, Bears (vs. BUF)
The box score says Clark fought through a foot injury for three catches, but if you saw the Bears’ dismantling of the Seahawks, you know there was a fourth pass that went right through Clark’s mitts in the endzone. Clark is questionable again, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t suit up and contribute, and it's clear Rex Grossman is looking for him.
Decision: START
Jason Witten, Cowboys (@ PHI)
When the Cowboys’ offense scores 45 points and Witten posts a whopping two catches for 19 yards, it’s time to find someone else to put in your lineup. Witten hasn’t scored yet this season, and the Eagles have held three of four TEs to 32 yards or less.
Decision: SIT
Kickers
Jason Elam, Broncos (vs. BAL)
Through four weeks of the season, Elam is among the least productive kickers in fantasy football. He's attempted only six triples on the year, and four of his five makes have come inside of 40 yards. Of course, he's also played in one fewer game than most and returns to Invesco Field this Sunday, where he attempts over two triples a game during his career and converts at an 82 percent clip.
Decision: START
Dave Rayner, Packers (vs. STL)
I suppose Rayner's three field goals in Week Four, which included a 54-yarder, were pretty impressive, but the kid needs a bit more of a track record. He's a grand total of 6-9 for his career, which includes two games this season in which he received only one attempt. There are better choices, despite the potential shootout in Green Bay.
Decision: SIT
Defenses
Indianapolis Colts (vs. TEN)
The Colts' defense hasn't been nearly as valuable for fantasy owners this season, but this week's matchup is ripe. The Titans bring a rookie quarterback to the RCA Dome to spearhead an offense that ranks 30th in scoring and produces less than 275 yards per game.
Decision: START
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ NOR)
Speaking of disappointing, Tampa's run as an annual fantasy leader appears to be coming to an end. They have forced only five turnovers on the year and have taken the opposing QB down just seven times. With Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Joe Horn on tap, the Saints have the weapons to keep the Bucs occupied.
Decision: SIT
PROFOOTBALLWEEKLY
Tough lineup decisions for Week Five
By Court E. Mann
Oct. 6, 2006
From week to week, your players’ fantasy fortunes can fluctuate wildly from touchdown hog to missing person. How else can you explain just 39 combined rushing yards from Chester and Fred Taylor in Week Four?
The truth is that outside of the elite offensive weapons — and even them, from time to time — fantasy production can be a lot more inconsistent than we desire. A player’s opponent, location, health, motivation, love life, even his pregame breakfast can have a significant impact on his numbers in any given week. “Start ’Em or Sit ’Em” aims to elucidate those factors to help you set your lineup. We’ve identified a few weekly regulars you should consider sending to the pine and a few reserves you may want to move up your depth chart.
Quarterbacks
Brett Favre, Packers (vs. STL)
Did you know that Favre has made 225 consecutive starts? Tony Kornheiser may have mentioned it a couple hundred times last Monday night, which all but ensured that Favre would take at least one shot by the end of the game. Brett will play in Week Five, and he very well may find himself in a shootout. The last three times these two teams have met, the total has soared over 55 points. Favre struggled last week, but the Rams are not the Eagles.
Decision: START
Mark Brunell, Redskins (@ NYG)
Put all preconceived notions about Brunell aside, because this recommendation comes straight from the “numbers don’t lie” department of justification. Brunell is undeniably hot (590 yards, four TDs in his last two games), and the Giants' defense has been just awful. The last two QBs to face them (Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb) have combined for 577 yards and seven TDs.
Decision: START
Matt Leinart, Cardinals (vs. KC)
The move from Kurt Warner to Leinart should pay fantasy dividends in time, and I wouldn’t hesitate to use the rest of your Cardinals weapons this week. However, it’s tough to count on a rookie passer making his first career start. The Chiefs just made mincemeat of young signalcaller Alex Smith last Sunday, and you can bet Herm Edwards will bring the heat on Leinart as well.
Decision: SIT
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (@ SD)
Big Ben will right the ship eventually, but this week doesn’t offer much promise. The Chargers have added a pass defense to their annual stout run unit. Check out the totals they’ve ceded to three opposing QBs: Steve McNair (158 yards, two TDs), Kerry Collins/Vince Young (163 yards, one TD), and Aaron Brooks/Andrew Walter (96 yards, zero TDs). Sure, those QBs are not Dan Marino, but Big Ben’s zero TDs and five picks aren’t much better.
Decision: SIT
Running backs
Fred Taylor, Jaguars (vs. NYJ)
One of the toughest things to do in fantasy football is not to let a bad performance the previous week cloud your judgment the following Sunday. Taylor had a whopping 16 yards on seven carries against the Skins, but the Jets bring one of the worst run defenses in football to Jacksonville in Week Five. Thus far they’ve yielded monster fantasy digits to the Chris Brown/Travis Henry tandem (86 yards, two TDs), the Corey Dillon/Laurence Maroney duo (145 yards, two TDs), Willis McGahee (150 yards) and the Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai combo (159 yards, two TDs).
Decision: START
Reggie Bush, Saints (vs. TB)
Bush is also coming off a disappointing Week Four effort, totaling only 70 yards and extending his scoreless streak to four games to start his career. The once-vaunted Bucs defense has taken more than a step back and currently ranks 31st in the NFL against the run. With Bruce Gradkowski under center for Tampa, the Saints should have a lead to protect, meaning plenty of opportunities for both Bush and Deuce McAllister.
Decision: START
Reuben Droughns, Browns (@ CAR)
Just because Droughns put up some numbers against the Raiders, don’t be fooled into thinking that his shoulder and his offensive line are no longer serious issues. If you missed Sunday’s game between the Browns and Raiders — and judging by the Nielsen ratings, you did — Droughns was in noticeable pain throughout and had to take a number of plays off. He remains questionable on the injury report and faces a Panthers defense that has stiffened significantly in the last two weeks. Neither Cadillac Williams nor Deuce McAllister nor Reggie Bush topped 48 yards rushing vs. Carolina.
Decision: SIT
Kevan Barlow, Jets (@ JAX)
Sorry to say, but despite his two-touchdown outing last Sunday, Barlow is not the answer to the Jets’ nonexistent running game. At this point, with his 2.9 yards per carry and his 36 yards per game, he’s little more than a glorified goal-line back. Let’s not forget that the last time we saw the Jags at home, they were shutting out Willie Parker and the Steelers.
Decision: SIT
Wide receivers
Isaac Bruce, Rams (@ GB)
Fresh off his first 100-yard game of the season, Bruce draws arguably the most favorable matchup a receiver can find. The Packers, dead last in the NFL in pass defense, have already given up 28 plays of 16 yards or more, and you may have seen Greg Lewis (two TDs) running wild on them last Monday night. The last time Bruce faced the Pack, two years ago at Lambeau, he rolled up 170 receiving yards.
Decision: START
Troy Williamson, Vikings (vs. DET)
With only three TDs on offense all season, the Vikings desperately need to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Unlike their last two opponents, the Bears and Bills, the Lions are pretty much helpless to stop an offense from executing, especially in the passing game. They’ve surrendered an astounding 955 yards and 10 TDs through the air in their last three games.
Decision: START
Lee Evans, Bills (@ CHI)
After just four catches in his first two games, Evans has surged back into significance with 15 catches and 197 yards in his last two tilts. Unfortunately, the Monsters of the Midway are not likely to allow that pattern to continue. They’ve yet to allow a passing score this season and have held eight straight regular-season visitors to less than 10 points at Soldier Field.
Decision: SIT
Joey Galloway, Buccaneers (@ NO)
I’m not sure I can justify a single Tampa player for your Week Five fantasy lineup. Not only are they starting a rookie under center, but they have also lost ORT Kenyatta Walker for the season to a knee injury. Galloway has one big game this season, and in the two others combined, he caught one pass. Let’s see what Gradkowski brings to the table before we rely on his offense in fantasy play.
Decision: SIT
Tight ends
Desmond Clark, Bears (vs. BUF)
The box score says Clark fought through a foot injury for three catches, but if you saw the Bears’ dismantling of the Seahawks, you know there was a fourth pass that went right through Clark’s mitts in the endzone. Clark is questionable again, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t suit up and contribute, and it's clear Rex Grossman is looking for him.
Decision: START
Jason Witten, Cowboys (@ PHI)
When the Cowboys’ offense scores 45 points and Witten posts a whopping two catches for 19 yards, it’s time to find someone else to put in your lineup. Witten hasn’t scored yet this season, and the Eagles have held three of four TEs to 32 yards or less.
Decision: SIT
Kickers
Jason Elam, Broncos (vs. BAL)
Through four weeks of the season, Elam is among the least productive kickers in fantasy football. He's attempted only six triples on the year, and four of his five makes have come inside of 40 yards. Of course, he's also played in one fewer game than most and returns to Invesco Field this Sunday, where he attempts over two triples a game during his career and converts at an 82 percent clip.
Decision: START
Dave Rayner, Packers (vs. STL)
I suppose Rayner's three field goals in Week Four, which included a 54-yarder, were pretty impressive, but the kid needs a bit more of a track record. He's a grand total of 6-9 for his career, which includes two games this season in which he received only one attempt. There are better choices, despite the potential shootout in Green Bay.
Decision: SIT
Defenses
Indianapolis Colts (vs. TEN)
The Colts' defense hasn't been nearly as valuable for fantasy owners this season, but this week's matchup is ripe. The Titans bring a rookie quarterback to the RCA Dome to spearhead an offense that ranks 30th in scoring and produces less than 275 yards per game.
Decision: START
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ NOR)
Speaking of disappointing, Tampa's run as an annual fantasy leader appears to be coming to an end. They have forced only five turnovers on the year and have taken the opposing QB down just seven times. With Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Joe Horn on tap, the Saints have the weapons to keep the Bucs occupied.
Decision: SIT
PROFOOTBALLWEEKLY
