Start your IDP's against lousy teams (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

The proof is in the pudding (using 2007 stats)...

Of the worst 16 teams in terms of rushing attempts allowed, only three (CLE, TB and IND) won most of their games.

*** Translation = more IDP tackles

Of the worst 16 teams in terms of sacks allowed, only three (SEA, PIT and TB) won most of their games.

*** Translation = more IDP sacks

Of the worst 16 teams in terms of INT's thrown, only four (NYG, CLE, DAL and TEN) won most of their games.

***Translation = more IDP INT's

If you're good at picking good (...or bad) teams, you should be at least decent with picking the proper IDP's to start.

 

[kawaihae]

New to IDP this year and trying to figure it all out. Were did you get your stats? And do you know if there is a resource to check these stats as the year goes on (like which team is giving up the most sacks, etc).

 

[Jene Bramel]

New to IDP this year and trying to figure it all out. Were did you get your stats? And do you know if there is a resource to check these stats as the year goes on (like which team is giving up the most sacks, etc).

You can get many of these stats through the Data Dominator and our IDP Matchup Tool here. A full set of updated team defensive stats is also available on NFL.com by Tuesday afternoon.

 

[Biabreakable]

WD while this is an interesting post I do not feel very clear about the point your making here and how it should help us to pick the correct starters on a weekly basis.

What you seem to be saying is that starting IDPs against losing teams is generaly a good thing. And while the statistics you use support that how do we know which teams will have losing records at the end of the 2008 season? And how do we use WIN/LOSS record for deciding starters week 1?

Now turnover stats do tend to be closely related to WIN/LOSS record and perhaps sacks given up are related in much lesser degree however the rushing attempts allowed (tackles) is more what we need to look at I think as tackles are the most predicable of the IDP statisitics. While teams who give up a lot of rushing attempts will most often lose looking at it in this way is kind of putting the cart before the horse. A team that is bad on offense and doesen't score many points will get run on more as the opposing team builds a lead and runs out the clock.

I think factors such as TOP, run defense/ yards given up per attempt, scoring offense, running offense, turnovers are all more significant in leading to WIN/LOSS than the WIN/LOSS column itself.

I have found that it is often favorable for me to have IDP on lousy teams because they are on the field more and get more opportunity to make more plays. And I will start these IDP on lousy teams regardless of the matchup. Especially when they play against good offensive teams that will keep them on the field even more. The only matchups that start to worry me is when my IDP on a lousy team is facing a team that is equally lousy or worse and if this might take some of my IDPs chances away because the team he is facing is so bad.

While some super star IDP players will come from very good teams I don't think their value is maximised when they play on a very good team.

If Pat Willis played for the Patriots last year for example he would still be the same player. But he would not put up near the ammount of tackles playing for them because opposing teams would spend so much time passing to catch up.

 

[Weiner Dog]

WD while this is an interesting post I do not feel very clear about the point your making here and how it should help us to pick the correct starters on a weekly basis.

What you seem to be saying is that starting IDPs against losing teams is generaly a good thing. And while the statistics you use support that how do we know which teams will have losing records at the end of the 2008 season? And how do we use WIN/LOSS record for deciding starters week 1?

Now turnover stats do tend to be closely related to WIN/LOSS record and perhaps sacks given up are related in much lesser degree however the rushing attempts allowed (tackles) is more what we need to look at I think as tackles are the most predicable of the IDP statisitics. While teams who give up a lot of rushing attempts will most often lose looking at it in this way is kind of putting the cart before the horse. A team that is bad on offense and doesen't score many points will get run on more as the opposing team builds a lead and runs out the clock.

I think factors such as TOP, run defense/ yards given up per attempt, scoring offense, running offense, turnovers are all more significant in leading to WIN/LOSS than the WIN/LOSS column itself.

I have found that it is often favorable for me to have IDP on lousy teams because they are on the field more and get more opportunity to make more plays. And I will start these IDP on lousy teams regardless of the matchup. Especially when they play against good offensive teams that will keep them on the field even more. The only matchups that start to worry me is when my IDP on a lousy team is facing a team that is equally lousy or worse and if this might take some of my IDPs chances away because the team he is facing is so bad.

While some super star IDP players will come from very good teams I don't think their value is maximised when they play on a very good team.

If Pat Willis played for the Patriots last year for example he would still be the same player. But he would not put up near the ammount of tackles playing for them because opposing teams would spend so much time passing to catch up.

My post was derived from laziness. I was thinking to myself, "If I was forced to submit a starting IDP lineup in 5 minutes, what is the best general statistic approach?"Common logic tells you that good teams build leads and run the ball to preserve the lead. Conversely, bad team play from behind and throw the ball late in the game to play catch-up. Sure...the player's underlying ability, the team's TOP, turnovers, etc can also be factored as additional (and maybe more important) variables. Heck, if you have the time, you could even crunch the numbers from FBG's excellent post that breaks-down the IDP stats per stadium.

However, my 2 minutes of research and 5 minutes of typing simply tilted me further towards the direction most people take...start your IDP's against lousy teams. I only wish I had the gumption to factor in additional years.