Starting a Team Today - Luck or Wilson (1 Viewer)

[General Tso]

Oh my God - Andrew Luck - and it's not even an argument. Wilson has been a nice story but as others have said he is not a prototypical quarterback and not likely to age well. He relies way too much on the run, but more to the point he's just too damn short. Think about this - Russell Wilson is shorter than Drew Brees, and only one inch taller than Doug Flutie. Ouch.

Wilson has been put into the ideal situation for a guy with his skill set - a team with a strong run game and a great defense, where the quarterback is asked to just play smart and not screw it up. It's the type of environment that allowed a mediocre quarterback like Trent Dilfer to win a Superbowl. Let's face it, this type of fantasyland environment doesn't last very long in the NFL. Pretty soon he's going to be asked to throw more than 12 completions a game like he did in the Superbowl. The interceptions will go up and he'll take many more hits. He seems to have a nice touch, but I don't see him having an elite enough arm to be consistently successful on a team that needs it's QB to be the focal point of the offense. It's possible he could evolve into another Drew Brees, but not likely. The odds are heavily stacked against him.

And if you find yourself disagreeing with me here, just ask yourself this - Who's the greatest quarterback in NFL history under 6 feet tall? I'll wait and listen...

 

[JamesTheScot]

Here, just for kicks, is a 70 yard laser Luck threw at his pro day. Compare and contrast with any and clips you can find, say, from the SB, of Wilson lobbing edge-of-his-range moonballs while receivers settle under them and then do their best to fight off defensive backs. Then note that Luck his the guy in stride. Then reset both, and count in mississippis how long it takes Luck's ball to rocket the length of the field, and how long it takes Russ's to flutter into place twenty or thirty yards shorter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkNQqOurmIA

That's not a throw Wilson can make in his dreams. The difference in arm strength isn't a matter of degree. It's a matter of kind. Luck has one of the top couple arms in football. Russ simply doesn't. Any time he goes deep, he has to rely on blown coverages, or defenses overcommitting to the run so that he can get his guys in single coverages where they have a decent chance to use size or position to make a play. He doesn't have the tools necessary to employ a deep range passing game that merely relies on powerful, accurate, deep passing and the natural flow of receivers half a step ahead of CB's for a brief time-window, with S's closing in. That element is completely missing from Seattle's attack, and that's because they don't have a guy who can execute those passes.

Seattle has a great young QB. He can do a ton of things. That still doesn't put him in the same universe of QB talent as the small handful of most talented passers in the game.

Just so I'm clear...

You're wanting me to compare a pass Luck threw at a pro day under no duress to a WR running all by himself down the middle of the field to the throws Wilson is making in the Super Bowl to WR's being covered, often in tight single coverage?

I'll give Luck some due. He has a good arm. I think his arm is much better than this ranking from 2012...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1266536-power-ranking-the-arm-strength-of-all-32-nfl-starting-qbs/page/11

But isn't it a bit odd that he makes that throw at his pro-day, in front of all sorts of people who are evaluating his talent, yet the pre-draft scouting reports are noticeably silent on this elite arm? In fact, his "good but not great" arm was sometimes listed as a negative.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/andrew-luck?id=2533031

http://nfldraftgeek.com/andrewluck.html

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2012aluck.php

http://espn.go.com/nfl/feature/video/_/page/allaboutluck/ultimate-scouting-report

Those are just the top couple of links I pulled up.

To be fair, he's getting some props now. But even now, he's still not considered the strongest arm. Number 8 is in the top 25%, but they 7 guys listed above him. I don't know that 8th is elite.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000400156/article/matthew-stafford-leads-list-of-top-10-strongest-arms

I'm not going to post all the links to Wilson's scouting profile but I'll summarize by saying that there were no concerns about his arm strength. It was all about his height. But feel free to go dig something up on him.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Oh my God - Andrew Luck - and it's not even an argument. Wilson has been a nice story but as others have said he is not a prototypical quarterback and not likely to age well. He relies way too much on the run, but more to the point he's just too damn short. Think about this - Russell Wilson is shorter than Drew Brees, and only one inch taller than Doug Flutie. Ouch.

Wilson has been put into the ideal situation for a guy with his skill set - a team with a strong run game and a great defense, where the quarterback is asked to just play smart and not screw it up. It's the type of environment that allowed a mediocre quarterback like Trent Dilfer to win a Superbowl. Let's face it, this type of fantasyland environment doesn't last very long in the NFL. Pretty soon he's going to be asked to throw more than 12 completions a game like he did in the Superbowl. The interceptions will go up and he'll take many more hits. He seems to have a nice touch, but I don't see him having an elite enough arm to be consistently successful on a team that needs it's QB to be the focal point of the offense. It's possible he could evolve into another Drew Brees, but not likely. The odds are heavily stacked against him.

And if you find yourself disagreeing with me here, just ask yourself this - Who's the greatest quarterback in NFL history under 6 feet tall? I'll wait and listen...

His name is Russel eff'ing Wilson. Are you daft?

Find me a QB under 6' who has won a SB in the last couple decades?

When a guy is the first to do something, that should kinda put you on notice that he might be just a little bit different. But no, keep on doubling down on the "he's too short to play in the NFL". You're already 48 consecutive regular season games wrong. It took Flutie 7 seasons and 3 NFL teams to get into 48 games.

 

[General Tso]

Oh my God - Andrew Luck - and it's not even an argument. Wilson has been a nice story but as others have said he is not a prototypical quarterback and not likely to age well. He relies way too much on the run, but more to the point he's just too damn short. Think about this - Russell Wilson is shorter than Drew Brees, and only one inch taller than Doug Flutie. Ouch.

Wilson has been put into the ideal situation for a guy with his skill set - a team with a strong run game and a great defense, where the quarterback is asked to just play smart and not screw it up. It's the type of environment that allowed a mediocre quarterback like Trent Dilfer to win a Superbowl. Let's face it, this type of fantasyland environment doesn't last very long in the NFL. Pretty soon he's going to be asked to throw more than 12 completions a game like he did in the Superbowl. The interceptions will go up and he'll take many more hits. He seems to have a nice touch, but I don't see him having an elite enough arm to be consistently successful on a team that needs it's QB to be the focal point of the offense. It's possible he could evolve into another Drew Brees, but not likely. The odds are heavily stacked against him.

And if you find yourself disagreeing with me here, just ask yourself this - Who's the greatest quarterback in NFL history under 6 feet tall? I'll wait and listen...

His name is Russel eff'ing Wilson. Are you daft?

Find me a QB under 6' who has won a SB in the last couple decades?

When a guy is the first to do something, that should kinda put you on notice that he might be just a little bit different. But no, keep on doubling down on the "he's too short to play in the NFL". You're already 48 consecutive regular season games wrong. It took Flutie 7 seasons and 3 NFL teams to get into 48 games.

Which kind of proves my point don't you think? (that there's no comp with Wilson's size and skillset having been even moderately successful over a long period of time in the history of the League - thus a very big gamble. Kind of like doubling down on an 8. You might get lucky, but the odds are not in your favor).

I think I'll take the sure thing in Andrew Luck. You can keep pee-wee.

 

[Ghost Rider]

a. Wilson has a strong arm.

B. Being a good decision maker and accurate are far more than important than having a strong, "elite" arm.

c. Wilson has a strong arm, is a good decision maker, and is an accurate passer.

 

[CalBear]

Yeah, this is a guy without a strong arm.

http://www.seahawks.com/videos-photos/videos/Highlight-Wilson-to-Rice-for-the-game-winner/a9a34e29-7a5e-4395-85c0-217aacf90481

Looks totally casual, over 55 yards through the air, perfect spiral, hit the double-covered man in stride. Oh yeah, and it was a game-winning play against a good team, not a throw without pressure in his underwear.

 

[Road Warriors]

We still haven't learned that QB, probably above all other positions, depend the least on measurables ( past a certain level of competence ) and much more on the intangibles. Drives scouts and fans crazy.

Given a QB with an above average arm and accuracy, I'll take the better leader, gym rat ( film study, extra work with receivers, etc ), top competitor, and poise under pressure guy over the elite arm and accuracy with a lesser set of these intangible qualities.

The NFL has a long list of QBs with elite measurables that fail miserably. It has another list of such QBs that are good with small doses of great, but can't seem to sustain it.

I haven't seen enough up close of Luck to see these qualities in action. I have seen a good amount of Wilson, and I like what I see. I do think when given the chance he will be able to carry an offense. How he reacts next year to his final play this year will tell you quite a bit about what Wilson brings to the table.

 

[Road Warriors]

Yeah, this is a guy without a strong arm.

http://www.seahawks.com/videos-photos/videos/Highlight-Wilson-to-Rice-for-the-game-winner/a9a34e29-7a5e-4395-85c0-217aacf90481

Looks totally casual, over 55 yards through the air, perfect spiral, hit the double-covered man in stride. Oh yeah, and it was a game-winning play against a good team, not a throw without pressure in his underwear.

First, this is not trying to argue against his arm strength, but a real question... is there a highlight package showcasing more than his deep ball. I'd love to see some tight window throws in the 20 yard range.

He throws a beautiful and accurate deep ball, but that doesn't really showcase arm strength. There are a ton of guys that can throw a 50 yard rainbow ( obviously not on a dime in stride ). When I think of QB arm strength, I'm thinking of the 15 yard out to the far side. Can you drive the ball on a line that beats a closing DB to the spot.

 

[Niles Standish]

I think this debate is pretty much closed for now. Luck hasn't lost a Superbowl game. We can reopen the discussion if and when Luck loses in a Superbowl.

 

[Tau837]

Lots of good posts above. Freelove has been beating this drum that Wilson is not a good deep passer for a while now.

 

[Niles Standish]

I went back to 2000 and only 3 teams in that span have finished #1 in points allowed with less than 12 wins. The '05 Bears with Orton had 11, the '09 Jets with Sanchez with only 9 and the 2012 Seahawks with 11.

 

[Neofight]

Here, just for kicks, is a 70 yard laser Luck threw at his pro day. Compare and contrast with any and clips you can find, say, from the SB, of Wilson lobbing edge-of-his-range moonballs while receivers settle under them and then do their best to fight off defensive backs. Then note that Luck his the guy in stride. Then reset both, and count in mississippis how long it takes Luck's ball to rocket the length of the field, and how long it takes Russ's to flutter into place twenty or thirty yards shorter.

There can't be more wrong with this post. Wilson's deep balls are among some of the most accurate, catchable balls in the NFL precisely because he has a strong enough arm to throw deep while putting enough air under it for WR's to get underneath; his bombs drop out of the air with great rotation and location. The reason the Seahawks don't have a more rhythmic passing game downfield is because that is hard to do with WR's that don't gain separation with any regularity. They are a deep shot, explosive play team that sometimes require Wilson to run around a bit to allow guys like Baldwin, Kearse et al. to get open. But look at when Wilson had a healthy Rice, or at his college tape at Wisconsin and NC State (where, btw, he threw in the low to mid 90's as a spot relief pitcher) and you can see he had great timing on deep balls even in college.Lucks 70 yarder was not a laser; it was a strong throw that began to flutter and lose rotation about 10 yards from the end zone. He routinely makes shaky throws deep in game situations, when he doesn't have the luxury of sitting back there with no pressure what-so-ever. His arm is above average but definitely not as strong as Rodgers, Cutler, Flacco, Kaepernick, Logan Thomas and a host of other QB's that play in the league (many of them backups). He is great, but by no means a consistently great deep ball thrower.