Starting Arian Foster over __________ (1 Viewer)

[Oh Yes!]

Although the better looking girl (Arian v. St.Louis) at the dance is staring at you, it would be unwise to leave the girl who brought you that you know you can still score with (Pierre).I'm going PT,Ganther, & Wells over the "prettier" matchups that Foster and C.Jennings have.

great analogy there lol. i think its too hard to tell what you'll get with arian this weekend. kubiak likes to "start" one back, then play the other... ala c.brown a couple weeks back.

i would like to think this is different. he has no reason to play brown, or moats. they already know what they have. really hope they decide to feed this kid the ball. already decided to sit Dwill, or did i? dammit.

 

[Cheesedawg]

Although the better looking girl (Arian v. St.Louis) at the dance is staring at you, it would be unwise to leave the girl who brought you that you know you can still score with (Pierre).I'm going PT,Ganther, & Wells over the "prettier" matchups that Foster and C.Jennings have.

great analogy there lol. i think its too hard to tell what you'll get with arian this weekend. kubiak likes to "start" one back, then play the other... ala c.brown a couple weeks back.

I'm sweating Arian also, needing to pick 3 RB's out of a group of MTurner, DWilliams, RBush, QGanther, and Arian. I could start a 4th RB at flex although I could also go with VYoung or MRyan at flex. In scanning the Texans' news reports today, I ran across the rest of the transcript of Kubiak's presser yesterday. I think it gives more insight into what he is thinking with Foster. From HoustonTexans.com...http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=5934(on what he likes about Foster) "He's got a long way to go. He did some good things the other day. He needs to practice better than he practiced today. He's a young player—a little inconsistent, but he's got a lot of talent. He's getting an opportunity here and he needs to understand how important this opportunity he's getting is. So I'm glad you asked about him. We'll see. He's going to play more this week than he did last week and we'll see how he handles it. He's got some ability. He's got the ability to play in this league for a long time if he handles his business the right way."(on if Foster will be able to build upon what he did last week) "He's getting every opportunity to. It's up to him how hard he studies, how hard he works, the attention to detail that he goes into this game, we'll see. So consistency is something we're looking for in a player."(on if he will start) "That depends on what we're doing. Y'all know I'm going to play them all, so it really depends on what we're doing. He's going to play. He'll play a lot more than he played last week."(on Foster saying yesterday ‘I have definitely not arrived') "Oh, he has not arrived. He is getting a chance to play and he's done some good things on special teams. He did some nice stuff last week when he played probably about 20 plays in the game. He's getting an opportunity because of the misfortune of (RB) Steve (Slaton) being out and us searching for a back to step up and take it upon their shoulders. We'll see how he does."(on how his pass-blocking and protection has been) "He did okay last week. He handled that good. Today, I'll have to go back and look at practice. We gave him a lot today, so we'll see. He better protect No. 8. If he's going to play, he better protect our quarterback."(on how Foster has handled having success and if he's seen a difference in practice) "He can practice better than he did today, so I'm going to go in there and talk to him about that because this team is counting on him taking another step forward as a player this week."

 

[Futz]

Although the better looking girl (Arian v. St.Louis) at the dance is staring at you, it would be unwise to leave the girl who brought you that you know you can still score with (Pierre).I'm going PT,Ganther, & Wells over the "prettier" matchups that Foster and C.Jennings have.

great analogy there lol. i think its too hard to tell what you'll get with arian this weekend. kubiak likes to "start" one back, then play the other... ala c.brown a couple weeks back.

i would like to think this is different. he has no reason to play brown, or moats. they already know what they have. really hope they decide to feed this kid the ball. already decided to sit Dwill, or did i? dammit.

The problem here is that every one of these backs hasn't really been given a legitimate shot except maybe Slaton. They do positive things and then they get the rug pulled right out from under them because of Kubiak. What makes you think Foster will be any different.Let's say he starts and rips it up 5 carries for 40 yards. Then he misses a block or fumbles (which he had a history of in college) and then Kubiak pulls his Shennanigans all over again. It's just not worth it IMO.

 

[Abstract]

I'm starting Ganther over Foster this week.

My other RB is Chris Johnson and he bascially scores like 2 RB's, anything I can get out of my RB2 spot is gravy.

 

[Oh Yes!]

Although the better looking girl (Arian v. St.Louis) at the dance is staring at you, it would be unwise to leave the girl who brought you that you know you can still score with (Pierre).I'm going PT,Ganther, & Wells over the "prettier" matchups that Foster and C.Jennings have.

great analogy there lol. i think its too hard to tell what you'll get with arian this weekend. kubiak likes to "start" one back, then play the other... ala c.brown a couple weeks back.

i would like to think this is different. he has no reason to play brown, or moats. they already know what they have. really hope they decide to feed this kid the ball. already decided to sit Dwill, or did i? dammit.

The problem here is that every one of these backs hasn't really been given a legitimate shot except maybe Slaton. They do positive things and then they get the rug pulled right out from under them because of Kubiak. What makes you think Foster will be any different.Let's say he starts and rips it up 5 carries for 40 yards. Then he misses a block or fumbles (which he had a history of in college) and then Kubiak pulls his Shennanigans all over again. It's just not worth it IMO.

damn you. now im on the fence again. nice work.

 

[Futz]

Although the better looking girl (Arian v. St.Louis) at the dance is staring at you, it would be unwise to leave the girl who brought you that you know you can still score with (Pierre).I'm going PT,Ganther, & Wells over the "prettier" matchups that Foster and C.Jennings have.

great analogy there lol. i think its too hard to tell what you'll get with arian this weekend. kubiak likes to "start" one back, then play the other... ala c.brown a couple weeks back.

i would like to think this is different. he has no reason to play brown, or moats. they already know what they have. really hope they decide to feed this kid the ball. already decided to sit Dwill, or did i? dammit.

The problem here is that every one of these backs hasn't really been given a legitimate shot except maybe Slaton. They do positive things and then they get the rug pulled right out from under them because of Kubiak. What makes you think Foster will be any different.Let's say he starts and rips it up 5 carries for 40 yards. Then he misses a block or fumbles (which he had a history of in college) and then Kubiak pulls his Shennanigans all over again. It's just not worth it IMO.

damn you. now im on the fence again. nice work.

Sorry. I know the feeling. I'm trying to analyze the reports looking for a reason to start Foster with confidence and then I say to myself " Stop being the battered wife here. Kubiak is going to say whatever he wants, and he'll still come with the back hand the minute I get lippie"----signed the proud owner of Slaton,Moats,C.Brown,dropped Moats, reacquired Moats, dropped C.Brown, acquired Foster

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

This one all comes down to risk-averse vs. upside.

If I think i NEED 20-25 points from an RB, I play Foster over guys who have consistently gotten 10-15 but rarely gone over, and dont have a matchup this week that allows for a big game.

it's not hard to picture Foster with 100 total yards and 2 TDs in the matchup. The Rams have been that bad, and the Texans offense has been that good.

 

[RICK ROMO]

I have to choose between a gimpy SJax or Foster. I think I will go with Foster who in my opinion has more upside over a hurt SJax. I'm in a PPR so the catches that Foster get help alot.

 

[CravenM]

I'll probably be starting Arian "Bananas" Foster over Ryan Grant this week.

I don't like any RB against Pitt who's playing at home and only for pride at this point. They've only given up 4 rushing TDs. And the Packers throw inside the 10 yard line (seemingly) more than any other team.

Foster at the Rams would be a good test for the Texans to see what he can do as a starting RB with a lot of work. He's 6'1", 222 lbs, average speed and should be very effective inside the 20.

 

[packersfan]

This one all comes down to risk-averse vs. upside.If I think i NEED 20-25 points from an RB, I play Foster over guys who have consistently gotten 10-15 but rarely gone over, and dont have a matchup this week that allows for a big game. it's not hard to picture Foster with 100 total yards and 2 TDs in the matchup. The Rams have been that bad, and the Texans offense has been that good.

I agree with all of that. The concern I have, though, is Kubiak has had a VERY itchy trigger finger when it comes to his RBs. He was critical of Foster's practice work yesterday. If Foster fumbles early or at some point before the fourth quarter, I could see Kubiak sitting him and going with Brown and/or Moats. So while the upside is definitely there in terms of the matchup and potential volume of touches, there's also some huge downside because the Houston backfield has been a mess this season and I think a big reason why is Kubiak has been constantly shuffling all of them.

 

[meeka]

Some how I made the playoffs starting S-Jax and Forte all year. Arian has to be a better start than Forte, right?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

This one all comes down to risk-averse vs. upside.If I think i NEED 20-25 points from an RB, I play Foster over guys who have consistently gotten 10-15 but rarely gone over, and dont have a matchup this week that allows for a big game. it's not hard to picture Foster with 100 total yards and 2 TDs in the matchup. The Rams have been that bad, and the Texans offense has been that good.

I agree with all of that. The concern I have, though, is Kubiak has had a VERY itchy trigger finger when it comes to his RBs. He was critical of Foster's practice work yesterday. If Foster fumbles early or at some point before the fourth quarter, I could see Kubiak sitting him and going with Brown and/or Moats. So while the upside is definitely there in terms of the matchup and potential volume of touches, there's also some huge downside because the Houston backfield has been a mess this season and I think a big reason why is Kubiak has been constantly shuffling all of them.

That makes a lot of sense to me - still I think the bottom line is to figure out whether there is any functional difference between 5 and 15 points for your lineup. if I am facing Brees-Chris Johnson-Andre Johnson, then I am playing Foster and hoping for the best. If I am facing McNabb-LT-Holmes, then I am likely playing the safer option like Grant or Steven Jackson. The answer to whether to play Foster this week comes down to scrutinizing your lineup and your opponents lineup and figuring out what you need to win.

 

[Cheesedawg]

This one all comes down to risk-averse vs. upside.If I think i NEED 20-25 points from an RB, I play Foster over guys who have consistently gotten 10-15 but rarely gone over, and dont have a matchup this week that allows for a big game. it's not hard to picture Foster with 100 total yards and 2 TDs in the matchup. The Rams have been that bad, and the Texans offense has been that good.

I agree with all of that. The concern I have, though, is Kubiak has had a VERY itchy trigger finger when it comes to his RBs. He was critical of Foster's practice work yesterday. If Foster fumbles early or at some point before the fourth quarter, I could see Kubiak sitting him and going with Brown and/or Moats. So while the upside is definitely there in terms of the matchup and potential volume of touches, there's also some huge downside because the Houston backfield has been a mess this season and I think a big reason why is Kubiak has been constantly shuffling all of them.

Let's keep in mind that Hou should kill STL and thus protection issues won't be as major as they might be in a tight game. With a lead, there should be a good opportunity for Kubiak to run Foster in the second half without too many worries. I was worried about Foster more before I saw that, moments after criticizing Foster's Thursday practice, Kubiak reiterated that "He's going to play more this week than he did last week and we'll see how he handles it." He got 17 touches for almost 90 yds last week. With the strong possibility of 20 or more touches this week against that STL D, I would think 100 yds and a TD or two is about right. If he makes a mistake or three and the game is close, I think he goes to the bench and lays an egg for you. In a lopsided game he can probably stay out there.

 

[packersfan]

This one all comes down to risk-averse vs. upside.If I think i NEED 20-25 points from an RB, I play Foster over guys who have consistently gotten 10-15 but rarely gone over, and dont have a matchup this week that allows for a big game. it's not hard to picture Foster with 100 total yards and 2 TDs in the matchup. The Rams have been that bad, and the Texans offense has been that good.

I agree with all of that. The concern I have, though, is Kubiak has had a VERY itchy trigger finger when it comes to his RBs. He was critical of Foster's practice work yesterday. If Foster fumbles early or at some point before the fourth quarter, I could see Kubiak sitting him and going with Brown and/or Moats. So while the upside is definitely there in terms of the matchup and potential volume of touches, there's also some huge downside because the Houston backfield has been a mess this season and I think a big reason why is Kubiak has been constantly shuffling all of them.

That makes a lot of sense to me - still I think the bottom line is to figure out whether there is any functional difference between 5 and 15 points for your lineup. if I am facing Brees-Chris Johnson-Andre Johnson, then I am playing Foster and hoping for the best. If I am facing McNabb-LT-Holmes, then I am likely playing the safer option like Grant or Steven Jackson. The answer to whether to play Foster this week comes down to scrutinizing your lineup and your opponents lineup and figuring out what you need to win.

Agreed. I can play a fourth RB as a flex in my (PPR) league and the choice would be McCoy or Foster. I know what McCoy can get me but he has zero upside in my opinion. Foster has much more but I also think he has more risk for the reasons I mentioned above. For me, it's going to come down to what happens Saturday night because me and my opponent have a number of guys playing. I've already gotten 15 from Sims-Walker last night and he got 24 from Clark. So if I go gonzo with Austin and Bush and he's quiet with Shockey and Hartley I may take the safer play. But if I need the points I'll very likely go with Foster.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

This one all comes down to risk-averse vs. upside.If I think i NEED 20-25 points from an RB, I play Foster over guys who have consistently gotten 10-15 but rarely gone over, and dont have a matchup this week that allows for a big game. it's not hard to picture Foster with 100 total yards and 2 TDs in the matchup. The Rams have been that bad, and the Texans offense has been that good.

I agree with all of that. The concern I have, though, is Kubiak has had a VERY itchy trigger finger when it comes to his RBs. He was critical of Foster's practice work yesterday. If Foster fumbles early or at some point before the fourth quarter, I could see Kubiak sitting him and going with Brown and/or Moats. So while the upside is definitely there in terms of the matchup and potential volume of touches, there's also some huge downside because the Houston backfield has been a mess this season and I think a big reason why is Kubiak has been constantly shuffling all of them.

That makes a lot of sense to me - still I think the bottom line is to figure out whether there is any functional difference between 5 and 15 points for your lineup. if I am facing Brees-Chris Johnson-Andre Johnson, then I am playing Foster and hoping for the best. If I am facing McNabb-LT-Holmes, then I am likely playing the safer option like Grant or Steven Jackson. The answer to whether to play Foster this week comes down to scrutinizing your lineup and your opponents lineup and figuring out what you need to win.

Agreed. I can play a fourth RB as a flex in my (PPR) league and the choice would be McCoy or Foster. I know what McCoy can get me but he has zero upside in my opinion. Foster has much more but I also think he has more risk for the reasons I mentioned above. For me, it's going to come down to what happens Saturday night because me and my opponent have a number of guys playing. I've already gotten 15 from Sims-Walker last night and he got 24 from Clark. So if I go gonzo with Austin and Bush and he's quiet with Shockey and Hartley I may take the safer play. But if I need the points I'll very likely go with Foster.

I can't see a reason to play McCoy over Foster. The last 2 games he's only had 23 total touches as Weaver has gotten more and more involved. Is his floor really that much higher than Foster's? I see him as carrying a similar level of risk as Foster with none of the upside.

 

[buymeagoat]

My opponent is starting Foster over Peterson and Jackson.

 

[packersfan]

I can't see a reason to play McCoy over Foster. The last 2 games he's only had 23 total touches as Weaver has gotten more and more involved. Is his floor really that much higher than Foster's? I see him as carrying a similar level of risk as Foster with none of the upside.

I think McCoy is much safer in a PPR league because I feel very confident he'll do no worse than 25-30 yards rushing with 3-4 receptions for 20+ yards. With Foster, I could see him screwing up early, Kubiak benching him and then getting nothing for the game. We've seen that happen with Slaton this season and I think Slaton is much more talented than Foster. So that's where the risk resides in my opinion. But there's absolutely no question Foster carries plenty of upside this week. The matchup is incredibly easy and if he starts and doesn't screw up, he could be huge.

 

[Buffaloes]

I can't see a reason to play McCoy over Foster. The last 2 games he's only had 23 total touches as Weaver has gotten more and more involved. Is his floor really that much higher than Foster's? I see him as carrying a similar level of risk as Foster with none of the upside.

I think McCoy is much safer in a PPR league because I feel very confident he'll do no worse than 25-30 yards rushing with 3-4 receptions for 20+ yards. With Foster, I could see him screwing up early, Kubiak benching him and then getting nothing for the game. We've seen that happen with Slaton this season and I think Slaton is much more talented than Foster. So that's where the risk resides in my opinion. But there's absolutely no question Foster carries plenty of upside this week. The matchup is incredibly easy and if he starts and doesn't screw up, he could be huge.

Maybe a different topic for a different thread, but it really seems like McCoy is having more meaningful touches taken away by Weaver. McCoy's floor seems about where Foster's is, while Foster's ceiling this week seems much higher. Just my opinion.

 

[packersfan]

I can't see a reason to play McCoy over Foster. The last 2 games he's only had 23 total touches as Weaver has gotten more and more involved. Is his floor really that much higher than Foster's? I see him as carrying a similar level of risk as Foster with none of the upside.

I think McCoy is much safer in a PPR league because I feel very confident he'll do no worse than 25-30 yards rushing with 3-4 receptions for 20+ yards. With Foster, I could see him screwing up early, Kubiak benching him and then getting nothing for the game. We've seen that happen with Slaton this season and I think Slaton is much more talented than Foster. So that's where the risk resides in my opinion. But there's absolutely no question Foster carries plenty of upside this week. The matchup is incredibly easy and if he starts and doesn't screw up, he could be huge.

Maybe a different topic for a different thread, but it really seems like McCoy is having more meaningful touches taken away by Weaver. McCoy's floor seems about where Foster's is, while Foster's ceiling this week seems much higher. Just my opinion.

Yeah I don't want to turn this into a WDIS thread. I'm simply using an example of how I view Foster. I view him as an upside play with a huge amount of risk. So like Bloom said, I think the question comes down to whether you need to chase the upside and you're willing to take the risk or you think you'll be fine with a safer option and you don't need to chase after the upside Foster represents.

 

[Keepers]

My opponent is starting Foster over Peterson and Jackson.

Considering it is Friday, let us know if he actually does start him over Peterson on Sunday.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I can't see a reason to play McCoy over Foster. The last 2 games he's only had 23 total touches as Weaver has gotten more and more involved. Is his floor really that much higher than Foster's? I see him as carrying a similar level of risk as Foster with none of the upside.

I think McCoy is much safer in a PPR league because I feel very confident he'll do no worse than 25-30 yards rushing with 3-4 receptions for 20+ yards. With Foster, I could see him screwing up early, Kubiak benching him and then getting nothing for the game. We've seen that happen with Slaton this season and I think Slaton is much more talented than Foster. So that's where the risk resides in my opinion. But there's absolutely no question Foster carries plenty of upside this week. The matchup is incredibly easy and if he starts and doesn't screw up, he could be huge.

Maybe a different topic for a different thread, but it really seems like McCoy is having more meaningful touches taken away by Weaver. McCoy's floor seems about where Foster's is, while Foster's ceiling this week seems much higher. Just my opinion.

Exactly. Think it's a no-brainer.

 

[packersfan]

I can't see a reason to play McCoy over Foster. The last 2 games he's only had 23 total touches as Weaver has gotten more and more involved. Is his floor really that much higher than Foster's? I see him as carrying a similar level of risk as Foster with none of the upside.

I think McCoy is much safer in a PPR league because I feel very confident he'll do no worse than 25-30 yards rushing with 3-4 receptions for 20+ yards. With Foster, I could see him screwing up early, Kubiak benching him and then getting nothing for the game. We've seen that happen with Slaton this season and I think Slaton is much more talented than Foster. So that's where the risk resides in my opinion. But there's absolutely no question Foster carries plenty of upside this week. The matchup is incredibly easy and if he starts and doesn't screw up, he could be huge.

Maybe a different topic for a different thread, but it really seems like McCoy is having more meaningful touches taken away by Weaver. McCoy's floor seems about where Foster's is, while Foster's ceiling this week seems much higher. Just my opinion.

Exactly. Think it's a no-brainer.

According to FBG, it's pretty close. Dodds has McCoy outscoring Foster in my league's scoring system. Bloom has Foster outscoring McCoy by 1 point.

 

[MCguidance]

Arian over Maroney and Ganther ?

This is what I am faced with. Leaning toward Maroney now. You? Anyone else have opinions?LM's matchup is just as juicy, Ganther's isn't as daunting as it used to be, the Giants are not the same, and Foster has others competing for touches.

 

[username]

houston. CANNOT. run. the. ball.

end of

 

[Buffaloes]

Arian over Maroney and Ganther ?

This is what I am faced with. Leaning toward Maroney now. You? Anyone else have opinions?LM's matchup is just as juicy, Ganther's isn't as daunting as it used to be, the Giants are not the same, and Foster has others competing for touches.

50/50 on Ganther or Foster right now. Neither strike me as real talented guys, so it may come down to the better matchup.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I can't see a reason to play McCoy over Foster. The last 2 games he's only had 23 total touches as Weaver has gotten more and more involved. Is his floor really that much higher than Foster's? I see him as carrying a similar level of risk as Foster with none of the upside.

I think McCoy is much safer in a PPR league because I feel very confident he'll do no worse than 25-30 yards rushing with 3-4 receptions for 20+ yards. With Foster, I could see him screwing up early, Kubiak benching him and then getting nothing for the game. We've seen that happen with Slaton this season and I think Slaton is much more talented than Foster. So that's where the risk resides in my opinion. But there's absolutely no question Foster carries plenty of upside this week. The matchup is incredibly easy and if he starts and doesn't screw up, he could be huge.

Maybe a different topic for a different thread, but it really seems like McCoy is having more meaningful touches taken away by Weaver. McCoy's floor seems about where Foster's is, while Foster's ceiling this week seems much higher. Just my opinion.

Exactly. Think it's a no-brainer.

According to FBG, it's pretty close. Dodds has McCoy outscoring Foster in my league's scoring system. Bloom has Foster outscoring McCoy by 1 point.

I don't have access to their projections nor your scoring system so I can't comment directly. I'll just say that any scoring system that has them close most likely represents a worst-case or extremely conservative projection for Foster. Foster may have a bad day but even if he does I wouldn't expect McCoy to outscore him much if at all. McCoy will get about 12-15 touches and no goal line carries against a good rush defense. Foster appears to be getting first crack at running against a terrible defense. He can catch the ball and he's big so he's likely to get the goal line carries.

I can't fathom a scoring scenario where they should be that close. I suppose I'm more bullish on Foster.

 

[packersfan]

I don't have access to their projections nor your scoring system so I can't comment directly. I'll just say that any scoring system that has them close most likely represents a worst-case or extremely conservative projection for Foster. Foster may have a bad day but even if he does I wouldn't expect McCoy to outscore him much if at all. McCoy will get about 12-15 touches and no goal line carries against a good rush defense. Foster appears to be getting first crack at running against a terrible defense. He can catch the ball and he's big so he's likely to get the goal line carries.I can't fathom a scoring scenario where they should be that close. I suppose I'm more bullish on Foster.

From an upside perspective, it's no contest and I agree with that. However, I think there are some legitimate concerns about Foster.1. The Texans will use all 3 RBs. Kubiak has already said that will occur. 2. Kubiak has shown he will bench a player without hesitation if that player screws up. Foster is hardly a proven commodity. If he fumbles or gives up a sack that gets Schaub killed, that could be the end of his day. So while I don't deny there is considerable upside with Foster, I also think there is some risk involved here and personally, I'm not feeling 100% confident I'm willing to overlook that just yet. Again, my decision will likely hinge on how my players do tomorrow night. If I feel I need the points on Sunday, then I'm going to take the risk and go with Foster. If I'm in a stronger position I'll probably go with McCoy, knowing there isn't much (if any) upside with him but he's guaranteed to get me a respectable amount of production for his roster spot. I really think it comes down to whether you want to ignore the risks involved. I certainly can understand if people do because the matchup is very enticing. But I do think there are some serious risks here that need to be talked about for those considering starting Foster this week.

 

[tigerz]

STL avg yds allowed is 4.6 yds (T-3rd) and 19 tds (2nd)

HOU avg yds per carry is 3.4 yds and 10 tds (17th)

HOU ranked 16th in rush attempts inside the 10

HOU scored 8 / 28 (29%) inside the 10

Distribution of TDs

3 TDs Chris Brown (3/10 inside 10 - ranked 15th)

4 TDs Ryan Moats

3 TDs Steve Slaton

Not counting the 5 receiving TDs by RBs

4 TDs Steve Slaton

1 TD Ryan Moats

Just a hunch from skimming the stats since OD went down but it seems as if the RBs have been favored more often inside the 10 after OD went down so I feel as though the chances of a Houston RB scoring a rushing/receiving TD is as good if not better than the majority of other RBs in the league this week. I haven't really looked in depth on the stats on this yet though.

There's so many other factors that make this matchup really good that I have yet to look into. Chris Brown does not have a lock on the goaline back position, he's not particularly great at it; he just has the build. Foster has a similar build but he also has the ability to catch the ball and that's something that could really mean a lot inside the 10 with Slaton and OD gone. I don't see much reason for Foster to not at least get a couple touches inside the 10. He has the best chance to be the RB who scores.

I do believe they will utilize all three backs this week but judging from past player participation, Chris Brown will be in for passing downs and may get 1-3 carries but mostly just pass blocks and Ryan Moats will not be in for any passing plays as Kubiak doesn't trust him for that at all but should get around 5-7 carries on running downs. I think Foster gets ample opportunity to participate in both running and passing plays and should get mop up duty in a game where STL should be blown out to see what the kid can do. Most likely I think he'll see around 15 carries, maybe 20, but he's a lock for at least 10 I think. Don't think he'll break off big against STL and have a great avg, but most likely around 4.0 yds per carry. It's a good matchup but Houston's O-line is still so bad. Really, expecting a huge 100 yard multiple TD game is pushing it. I think he'll get around 50-80 total yards, but you're really counting on a score more than seeing big yardage from this guy. Reasonable expectations would be around 8-13 pts non-ppr and I think it's pretty safe to assume that much.

As far as Kubiak taking him out of the game, I think Foster is safe for this game but next game who knows... The reason I think that is because Kubiak gave Moats 16 carries the game after buffalo to give him a shot but then pulled him the game after. Despite pulling Slaton early in the game against Buffalo, Slaton still played a good amount of time earlier in the year after he fumbled several times. Kubiak needs to see what he has in Foster before pulling him and he should have opportunity to do so this game, especially since it's such a favorable matchup for them. At this point in time, I just don't see who Kubiak would pull Foster for in the middle of the game. Would he really hand it off to Moats when he knows Moats has those issues as well? He could give it to Brown but he already knows what he has in him and I think they would only hand it to him in games that were close and they just needed to make sure they didn't turn the ball over. Even if Foster did fumble, they probably wouldn't lose. There's really no reason to not let Foster have it with this matchup.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Starting him over the H1N1'd Steve Jackson.

I think Foster is a better bet than Moats this week.

 

[CravenM]

houston. CANNOT. run. the. ball.end of

What's the difference between the Texans last year where Slaton and the team had a great YPC average and this year? Same coach and QB - seems like a lot of it must be attributable to injuries of the RBs. The play calling has a higher percentage of passes than rushes this year probably because of this as well. But the Texans have had a couple of good running games this year - against the Bills, Moats averaged 5.5 ypc and the team was 4.4 overall. And Moats averaged 4.3 ypc last week against the Seahawks.The Rams have one of the statistically worst defenses against the rush in terms of YPC, YPG, rushing TDs, etc. Couple that with a really bad, injured team with only a single win this year and there should be a lot of Texans offense in this game, both rushing and passing.Like the Bloomster suggested, Foster has a very high ceiling possible this week - probably higher than a lot of top 20 RBs.

 

[packersfan]

I think he'll get around 50-80 total yards, but you're really counting on a score more than seeing big yardage from this guy.

First off, great post. But this sentence stuck out at me because I think it's vital. The Texans are a passing team and it's possible (if not probable) that most and maybe even all of their TDs come via the pass. So in order for Foster to really hit the upside many (myself included) think he has, he's going to have to score because if all three RBs are in the mix (and we should expect that to occur) the yardage could be good but not great for him. So can he get a TD? I think that may be the biggest question because we don't know if he'll even be the goal-line guy.

 

[Futz]

For all those debating about the Foster v. Ganther decision, you really have to look beyond the matchups and think about how they are going to be utilized.

Ganther is going to receive about 80% of the touches rushing/receiving and is the goal line back. What more could you want besides a St. Louis matchup?

The best case scenario for Foster is that he receives the lion's share of the touches between 3 backs and hopefully a goal line appearance. Should he do something really wrong, he may not see the field again because Kubiak is like a virgen on prom night, he can't wait to pull his boys out.

That's pretty iffy to me.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

For all those debating about the Foster v. Ganther decision, you really have to look beyond the matchups and think about how they are going to be utilized.Ganther is going to receive about 80% of the touches rushing/receiving and is the goal line back. What more could you want besides a St. Louis matchup?The best case scenario for Foster is that he receives the lion's share of the touches between 3 backs and hopefully a goal line appearance. Should he do something really wrong, he may not see the field again because Kubiak is like a virgen on prom night, he can't wait to pull his boys out.That's pretty iffy to me.

I still remember a couple of weeks back when I was all excited about rolling with Chris Brown who was the flavor of the week. Then Kubiak pulls a fast one and Moats gets most of the carries. You can't trust what Kubiak is saying. He "wants to get Foster" more carries. What does that mean? 5 carries, 10 carries? Too much risk, and I don't see the upside.I'd roll with Ganther if I had to make a choice. I actually own Ganther, but am sitting him in my flex spot for Bowe.Foster is for the real big time gamblers.

 

[tigerz]

I think he'll get around 50-80 total yards, but you're really counting on a score more than seeing big yardage from this guy.

First off, great post. But this sentence stuck out at me because I think it's vital. The Texans are a passing team and it's possible (if not probable) that most and maybe even all of their TDs come via the pass. So in order for Foster to really hit the upside many (myself included) think he has, he's going to have to score because if all three RBs are in the mix (and we should expect that to occur) the yardage could be good but not great for him. So can he get a TD? I think that may be the biggest question because we don't know if he'll even be the goal-line guy.

I'm still in the middle of researching Foster but here's what I see from the stats and game logs. Yes, the Texans are a passing team but it's important to ask why. There are reasons for this besides the fact that the Texans were horrible at running the ball this year. For one, there were only three favorable matchups for their running game this year against the Raiders (30th), Cardinals (27th), and Buffalo (32th). The remaining 10 were with run defenses in the top half of the league. Of those three games, only one was an early blow out, the Raiders game. Let's take a look at the stats for that game:TexansRan the ball 41 timesPassed the ball 22 timesOf course, even against the third worst run D they managed to average 2.9 per carry. It is worthy to note that they had their longest rushing TD for 32 yards (only rushing TD over 11 yards) this game as well. It is also worthy to note Slaton had 21 carries and Moats had 15 meaning for the game against St. Louis, even if Foster is in a committee, there should be enough shares to go around.Now let's look at the Bills game. The Bills are ranked 5th against the pass and it showed that game as Houston was unable to get going and were only able to take the lead in the fourth quarter. During the first three quarters while the Texans were down, they passed 31 times and ran 18. In the fourth quarter, after they took the lead they ran the ball 12 times (3 for scores) and passed 3. Finally, let's look at the Cardinals game. TexansPassed the ball 50 timesRan the ball 21 timesEven though Arizona is the 6th worst team against the run, they couldn't run because they were down 21 points by halftime. Now, St. Louis is worse against the run and I don't think they can even come close to Arizona in terms of offensive firepower. If anything, this game should resemble the Raiders game the most. The Texans should get the lead early and run the ball against an inferior run D despite being bad at running the ball. A scenario they really haven't had much of this past year. I haven't looked into it as much, but they had to pass the ball a lot in the other games because teams kept putting up points against the Houston D and there were very competitive division matches hence, throwing the ball more than running it. The Texans RBs should get a lot of carries against St. Louis and I think in that respect, the FBG projections are too conservative. However, I think the avg yards you can expect is definitely limited so I don't think you can say 15-20 carries = automatic 100 yard games. They couldn't really take advantage of the Raiders earlier this year (2.9 ypc) and against the Bills, the worst run D by far, they averaged 4.4 ypc. I'll say it again, I think Foster's big day would have to rely on TDs. Not long TDs because Houston only has 3 runs over 20 yards and St. Louis only allowed 11 runs over 20 yards compared to the Buccaneers and Bills who allowed 19 and 17 respectively, but TDs inside the 10. Texans are an average team when it comes to scoring rushing TDs but they get a lot of opportunity because Schaub and Johnson can move the chains. Without a great WR2 or TE like OD it leaves the door open for the RBs to score in the short yardage situations and I believe in the last 10 games, a RB has scored at least once whereas they didn't for the first three games of the year. I'm thinking ODs TDs were distributed amongst the RBs. As for Arian Foster being the guy to get the TDs, I'm not saying he's the new goalline back. Any of the RBs can score, it seems a lot like New Orleans. What I am saying is that he has the build, can catch balls, and they want to see what they have so why not give him at least a couple chances since Brown hasn't been that effective and this isn't going to be a competitive game. They gave everyone else a shot, right? And I'll take a couple chances at a St. Louis defense that allowed 19 scores on the ground/18 through the air over a full time goalline back with a neutral or tough matchup. If he doesn't score, you still have a cushion because he should get the garbage time carries and 15 carries + reception yards against St. Louis for 50-80 yards is a pretty decent number considering the circumstances.I still got to look into more stuff though, like Forte and Forsett vs the Rams to tweak my predictions but first thought is that Forte had over 20 carries and averaged less than 4 yards per carry while Forsett had 22 and Foster might not see as much since he's in a committee. Second thought is that if Forte and Forsett can score 3 TDs against the Rams with O-lines that are just as bad then it's an even better bet than Houston will toh and I am also looking into Jennings and probably going to look into Ganther a little too but right now, Foster > Jennings and Ganther.

 

[kyoun1e]

Ok, so I have the Foster vs Ganther decision like others. I thought it would be a good idea to see how RBs have done vs the STL and NYG Ds over the last few weeks. It's really hard to get a handle on how bad or good a team is against the run until you look at the teams and players doing the damage.

STL Run D

14 C. Johnson 28-117

13 M. Forte 24-91

12 J. Forsett 21-130

11 AZ RBs 28-184

10 NO RBs 29-203

8 Det RBs 33-127

This is shocking data to me. Bum Forte put up very good numbers here. Forsett was dominating and scored twice to boot. Most damning...Hightower and Wells went bezerk. Hell, even Det averaged close to 4 ypc the game K. Smith went down.

Bottom line: there is a reason STL is a great matchup for RBs. And it would appear in most cases, there are a lot of carries to go around in these games.

NYG Run D

14 Philly RBs 24-77

13 M. Barber 15-36

12 Denver RBs 39-139

11 J. Snelling 25-76-2

9 LT 12-22

8 Philly roasted them badly

Outside of the Philly game which was a disaster, the NYG have been pretty damn tough against the run. What's funny is that after the Denver game, everyone was saying how Denver ripped them...at less than 4 ypc, I'd say no.

The matchup seems undeniable to me for Foster while I think Ganther owners probably should be counting their lucky stars for a couple of cheap TD plunges last week. My guess is the odds of a repeat for Ganther against the NYG's run d is slim to none.

I'm thinking Ganther's upside is something like 18-60, 3-22 with a 50% chance for a TD. So in PPR, let's call that 13 pts.

My thinking is, Foster's floor may be around 10 pts. Maybe he fumbles or something, but still gets last week's 13 carries for say, 42 yards, and 3 rec for 20. That's a floor of 9 pts in PPR.

So a Ganther ceiling of 13-16 vs a Foster with a floor of 9...

...but with ridiculous upside due to the matchup, Null at QB, Swine Flu, Houston getting up big and running, etc.

I'm leaning hard towards Foster right now.

KY

 

[Mr. Mojo]

I think he'll get around 50-80 total yards, but you're really counting on a score more than seeing big yardage from this guy.

First off, great post. But this sentence stuck out at me because I think it's vital. The Texans are a passing team and it's possible (if not probable) that most and maybe even all of their TDs come via the pass. So in order for Foster to really hit the upside many (myself included) think he has, he's going to have to score because if all three RBs are in the mix (and we should expect that to occur) the yardage could be good but not great for him. So can he get a TD? I think that may be the biggest question because we don't know if he'll even be the goal-line guy.

I'm still in the middle of researching Foster but here's what I see from the stats and game logs. Yes, the Texans are a passing team but it's important to ask why. There are reasons for this besides the fact that the Texans were horrible at running the ball this year. For one, there were only three favorable matchups for their running game this year against the Raiders (30th), Cardinals (27th), and Buffalo (32th). The remaining 10 were with run defenses in the top half of the league. Of those three games, only one was an early blow out, the Raiders game. Let's take a look at the stats for that game:TexansRan the ball 41 timesPassed the ball 22 timesOf course, even against the third worst run D they managed to average 2.9 per carry. It is worthy to note that they had their longest rushing TD for 32 yards (only rushing TD over 11 yards) this game as well.Now let's look at the Bills game. The Bills are ranked 5th against the pass and it showed that game as Houston was unable to get going and were only able to take the lead in the fourth quarter. During the first three quarters while the Texans were down, they passed 31 times and ran 18. In the fourth quarter, after they took the lead they ran the ball 12 times (3 for scores) and passed 3. Finally, let's look at the Cardinals game. TexansPassed the ball 50 timesRan the ball 21 timesEven though Arizona is the 6th worst team against the run, they couldn't run because they were down 21 points by halftime. Now, St. Louis is worse against the run and I don't think they can even come close to Arizona in terms of offensive firepower. If anything, this game should resemble the Raiders game the most. The Texans should get the lead early and run the ball against an inferior run D despite being bad at running the ball. A scenario they really haven't had much of this past year. I haven't looked into it as much, but they had to pass the ball a lot in the other games because teams kept putting up points against the Houston D and there were very competitive division matches hence, throwing the ball more than running it. The Texans RBs should get a lot of carries against St. Louis and I think in that respect, the FBG projections are too conservative. However, I think the avg yards you can expect is definitely limited so I don't think you can say 15-20 carries = automatic 100 yard games. They couldn't really take advantage of the Raiders earlier this year (2.9 ypc) and against the Bills, the worst run D by far, they averaged 4.4 ypc. I'll say it again, I think Foster's big day would have to rely on TDs. Not long TDs because Houston only has 3 runs over 20 yards and St. Louis only allowed 11 runs over 20 yards compared to the Buccaneers and Bills who allowed 19 and 17 respectively, but TDs inside the 10. Texans are an average team when it comes to scoring rushing TDs but they get a lot of opportunity because Schaub and Johnson can move the chains. Without a great WR2 or TE like OD it leaves the door open for the RBs to score in the short yardage situations and I believe in the last 10 games, a RB has scored at least once whereas they didn't for the first three games of the year. I'm thinking ODs TDs were distributed amongst the RBs. As for Arian Foster being the guy to get the TDs, I'm not saying he's the new goalline back. Any of the RBs can score, it seems a lot like New Orleans. What I am saying is that he has the build, can catch balls, and they want to see what they have so why not give him at least a couple chances since Brown hasn't been that effective and this isn't going to be a competitive game. They gave everyone else a shot, right? And I'll take a couple chances at a St. Louis defense that allowed 19 scores on the ground/18 through the air over a full time goalline back with a neutral or tough matchup. If he doesn't score, you still have a cushion because he should get the garbage time carries and 15 carries + reception yards against St. Louis for 50-80 yards is a pretty decent number considering the circumstances.I still got to look into more stuff though, like Forte and Forsett vs the Rams to tweak my predictions but first thought is that Forte had over 20 carries and averaged less than 4 yards per carry while Forsett had 22 and Foster might not see as much since he's in a committee. Second thought is that if Forte and Forsett can score 3 TDs against the Rams with O-lines that are just as bad then it's an even better bet than Houston will toh and I am also looking into Jennings and probably going to look into gather a little too but right now, Foster > Jennings and Gather.

Solid, objective analysis.I picked up Jennings and Foster as my other choice is Hightower. Still not sure which of the three I'm going to use. I'm leaning toward Jennings. At least they all have good matchups this week.

 

[Chief]

If anyone has info on who is getting first team reps in practice please post

 

[Black]

STL avg yds allowed is 4.6 yds (T-3rd) and 19 tds (2nd)HOU avg yds per carry is 3.4 yds and 10 tds (17th)HOU ranked 16th in rush attempts inside the 10HOU scored 8 / 28 (29%) inside the 10Distribution of TDs3 TDs Chris Brown (3/10 inside 10 - ranked 15th)4 TDs Ryan Moats3 TDs Steve SlatonNot counting the 5 receiving TDs by RBs4 TDs Steve Slaton1 TD Ryan MoatsJust a hunch from skimming the stats since OD went down but it seems as if the RBs have been favored more often inside the 10 after OD went down so I feel as though the chances of a Houston RB scoring a rushing/receiving TD is as good if not better than the majority of other RBs in the league this week. I haven't really looked in depth on the stats on this yet though. There's so many other factors that make this matchup really good that I have yet to look into. Chris Brown does not have a lock on the goaline back position, he's not particularly great at it; he just has the build. Foster has a similar build but he also has the ability to catch the ball and that's something that could really mean a lot inside the 10 with Slaton and OD gone. I don't see much reason for Foster to not at least get a couple touches inside the 10. He has the best chance to be the RB who scores.I do believe they will utilize all three backs this week but judging from past player participation, Chris Brown will be in for passing downs and may get 1-3 carries but mostly just pass blocks and Ryan Moats will not be in for any passing plays as Kubiak doesn't trust him for that at all but should get around 5-7 carries on running downs. I think Foster gets ample opportunity to participate in both running and passing plays and should get mop up duty in a game where STL should be blown out to see what the kid can do. Most likely I think he'll see around 15 carries, maybe 20, but he's a lock for at least 10 I think. Don't think he'll break off big against STL and have a great avg, but most likely around 4.0 yds per carry. It's a good matchup but Houston's O-line is still so bad. Really, expecting a huge 100 yard multiple TD game is pushing it. I think he'll get around 50-80 total yards, but you're really counting on a score more than seeing big yardage from this guy. Reasonable expectations would be around 8-13 pts non-ppr and I think it's pretty safe to assume that much. As far as Kubiak taking him out of the game, I think Foster is safe for this game but next game who knows... The reason I think that is because Kubiak gave Moats 16 carries the game after buffalo to give him a shot but then pulled him the game after. Despite pulling Slaton early in the game against Buffalo, Slaton still played a good amount of time earlier in the year after he fumbled several times. Kubiak needs to see what he has in Foster before pulling him and he should have opportunity to do so this game, especially since it's such a favorable matchup for them. At this point in time, I just don't see who Kubiak would pull Foster for in the middle of the game. Would he really hand it off to Moats when he knows Moats has those issues as well? He could give it to Brown but he already knows what he has in him and I think they would only hand it to him in games that were close and they just needed to make sure they didn't turn the ball over. Even if Foster did fumble, they probably wouldn't lose. There's really no reason to not let Foster have it with this matchup.

Nice analysis. Best I have seen anywhere all week.

 

[Buffaloes]

STL avg yds allowed is 4.6 yds (T-3rd) and 19 tds (2nd)HOU avg yds per carry is 3.4 yds and 10 tds (17th)HOU ranked 16th in rush attempts inside the 10HOU scored 8 / 28 (29%) inside the 10Distribution of TDs3 TDs Chris Brown (3/10 inside 10 - ranked 15th)4 TDs Ryan Moats3 TDs Steve SlatonNot counting the 5 receiving TDs by RBs4 TDs Steve Slaton1 TD Ryan MoatsJust a hunch from skimming the stats since OD went down but it seems as if the RBs have been favored more often inside the 10 after OD went down so I feel as though the chances of a Houston RB scoring a rushing/receiving TD is as good if not better than the majority of other RBs in the league this week. I haven't really looked in depth on the stats on this yet though. There's so many other factors that make this matchup really good that I have yet to look into. Chris Brown does not have a lock on the goaline back position, he's not particularly great at it; he just has the build. Foster has a similar build but he also has the ability to catch the ball and that's something that could really mean a lot inside the 10 with Slaton and OD gone. I don't see much reason for Foster to not at least get a couple touches inside the 10. He has the best chance to be the RB who scores.I do believe they will utilize all three backs this week but judging from past player participation, Chris Brown will be in for passing downs and may get 1-3 carries but mostly just pass blocks and Ryan Moats will not be in for any passing plays as Kubiak doesn't trust him for that at all but should get around 5-7 carries on running downs. I think Foster gets ample opportunity to participate in both running and passing plays and should get mop up duty in a game where STL should be blown out to see what the kid can do. Most likely I think he'll see around 15 carries, maybe 20, but he's a lock for at least 10 I think. Don't think he'll break off big against STL and have a great avg, but most likely around 4.0 yds per carry. It's a good matchup but Houston's O-line is still so bad. Really, expecting a huge 100 yard multiple TD game is pushing it. I think he'll get around 50-80 total yards, but you're really counting on a score more than seeing big yardage from this guy. Reasonable expectations would be around 8-13 pts non-ppr and I think it's pretty safe to assume that much. As far as Kubiak taking him out of the game, I think Foster is safe for this game but next game who knows... The reason I think that is because Kubiak gave Moats 16 carries the game after buffalo to give him a shot but then pulled him the game after. Despite pulling Slaton early in the game against Buffalo, Slaton still played a good amount of time earlier in the year after he fumbled several times. Kubiak needs to see what he has in Foster before pulling him and he should have opportunity to do so this game, especially since it's such a favorable matchup for them. At this point in time, I just don't see who Kubiak would pull Foster for in the middle of the game. Would he really hand it off to Moats when he knows Moats has those issues as well? He could give it to Brown but he already knows what he has in him and I think they would only hand it to him in games that were close and they just needed to make sure they didn't turn the ball over. Even if Foster did fumble, they probably wouldn't lose. There's really no reason to not let Foster have it with this matchup.

Nice analysis. Best I have seen anywhere all week.

 

[comet909]

If Steven Jackson is innactive then I'll start the Arianator. Other wise I'll go with S.Jax.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I don't have access to their projections nor your scoring system so I can't comment directly. I'll just say that any scoring system that has them close most likely represents a worst-case or extremely conservative projection for Foster. Foster may have a bad day but even if he does I wouldn't expect McCoy to outscore him much if at all. McCoy will get about 12-15 touches and no goal line carries against a good rush defense. Foster appears to be getting first crack at running against a terrible defense. He can catch the ball and he's big so he's likely to get the goal line carries.I can't fathom a scoring scenario where they should be that close. I suppose I'm more bullish on Foster.

From an upside perspective, it's no contest and I agree with that. However, I think there are some legitimate concerns about Foster.1. The Texans will use all 3 RBs. Kubiak has already said that will occur. 2. Kubiak has shown he will bench a player without hesitation if that player screws up. Foster is hardly a proven commodity. If he fumbles or gives up a sack that gets Schaub killed, that could be the end of his day. So while I don't deny there is considerable upside with Foster, I also think there is some risk involved here and personally, I'm not feeling 100% confident I'm willing to overlook that just yet. Again, my decision will likely hinge on how my players do tomorrow night. If I feel I need the points on Sunday, then I'm going to take the risk and go with Foster. If I'm in a stronger position I'll probably go with McCoy, knowing there isn't much (if any) upside with him but he's guaranteed to get me a respectable amount of production for his roster spot. I really think it comes down to whether you want to ignore the risks involved. I certainly can understand if people do because the matchup is very enticing. But I do think there are some serious risks here that need to be talked about for those considering starting Foster this week.

Choosing to start a RB who has never started a game before carries considerable risk. Anyone not acknowledging that is fooling themselves. This has to be taken into consideration when deciding whether or not to start him. But his considerable upside should put him in the comparison of steady, medium-level producers who are less risk but less upside. Guys like Barber and Jacobs come to mind. They have a higher floor than Foster but probably a lower ceiling. I just think that the particular comparison of McCoy is a no-brainer as his floor is really not much lower than Foster's with none of the upside. Just my 2 cents on this. Of course, I think Foster has a significant amount of upside and I tend to think the matchups mean more late in the season than throughout the year so I'm putting a lot of stock in the Rams defense performing poorly.

 

[packersfan]

Choosing to start a RB who has never started a game before carries considerable risk. Anyone not acknowledging that is fooling themselves. This has to be taken into consideration when deciding whether or not to start him. But his considerable upside should put him in the comparison of steady, medium-level producers who are less risk but less upside. Guys like Barber and Jacobs come to mind. They have a higher floor than Foster but probably a lower ceiling. I just think that the particular comparison of McCoy is a no-brainer as his floor is really not much lower than Foster's with none of the upside. Just my 2 cents on this. Of course, I think Foster has a significant amount of upside and I tend to think the matchups mean more late in the season than throughout the year so I'm putting a lot of stock in the Rams defense performing poorly.

And that's a pretty big factor. I happen to think McCoy's floor is higher because he's guaranteed to get double-digit touches and very likely to get 3+ receptions (especially considering the fact the 49ers struggle with pass-catching RBs). But I agree he doesn't have any upside which is why I'm strongly considering Foster. But the very real possibility that Foster could end up with one or two points has me holding back for the time being. I love the matchup but I'm not sure I trust Foster's potential given how Kubiak has handled the RB situation all season long.

 

[PosterNutBag]

Choosing to start a RB who has never started a game before carries considerable risk. Anyone not acknowledging that is fooling themselves. This has to be taken into consideration when deciding whether or not to start him. But his considerable upside should put him in the comparison of steady, medium-level producers who are less risk but less upside. Guys like Barber and Jacobs come to mind. They have a higher floor than Foster but probably a lower ceiling. I just think that the particular comparison of McCoy is a no-brainer as his floor is really not much lower than Foster's with none of the upside. Just my 2 cents on this. Of course, I think Foster has a significant amount of upside and I tend to think the matchups mean more late in the season than throughout the year so I'm putting a lot of stock in the Rams defense performing poorly.

And that's a pretty big factor. I happen to think McCoy's floor is higher because he's guaranteed to get double-digit touches and very likely to get 3+ receptions (especially considering the fact the 49ers struggle with pass-catching RBs). But I agree he doesn't have any upside which is why I'm strongly considering Foster. But the very real possibility that Foster could end up with one or two points has me holding back for the time being. I love the matchup but I'm not sure I trust Foster's potential given how Kubiak has handled the RB situation all season long.

I totally agree. There is no question that McCoy has a higher floor than someone who could easily end up being 3rd fiddle to two other RBs this week. I know the speculation is that Foster gets the lion's share of the touches at RB, but this is Kubiak we are talking about and if we are talking about "RB floors" for week 15, then I am not sure how anyone can say that McCoy has a lower floor than Foster.Foster is a true boom or bust pick this week. All signs point to him getting plenty of chances to show his stuff. He seems like he stands a pretty good chance to score I would guess too. I would probably go with Foster over McCoy if that were my choices, but I definitely agree that McCoy is a safer bet for some production ... however the likelihood of Foster outproducing him is realistic enough to me to gamble on it coming true.

 

[packersfan]

Choosing to start a RB who has never started a game before carries considerable risk. Anyone not acknowledging that is fooling themselves. This has to be taken into consideration when deciding whether or not to start him. But his considerable upside should put him in the comparison of steady, medium-level producers who are less risk but less upside. Guys like Barber and Jacobs come to mind. They have a higher floor than Foster but probably a lower ceiling. I just think that the particular comparison of McCoy is a no-brainer as his floor is really not much lower than Foster's with none of the upside. Just my 2 cents on this. Of course, I think Foster has a significant amount of upside and I tend to think the matchups mean more late in the season than throughout the year so I'm putting a lot of stock in the Rams defense performing poorly.

And that's a pretty big factor. I happen to think McCoy's floor is higher because he's guaranteed to get double-digit touches and very likely to get 3+ receptions (especially considering the fact the 49ers struggle with pass-catching RBs). But I agree he doesn't have any upside which is why I'm strongly considering Foster. But the very real possibility that Foster could end up with one or two points has me holding back for the time being. I love the matchup but I'm not sure I trust Foster's potential given how Kubiak has handled the RB situation all season long.

I totally agree. There is no question that McCoy has a higher floor than someone who could easily end up being 3rd fiddle to two other RBs this week. I know the speculation is that Foster gets the lion's share of the touches at RB, but this is Kubiak we are talking about and if we are talking about "RB floors" for week 15, then I am not sure how anyone can say that McCoy has a lower floor than Foster.Foster is a true boom or bust pick this week. All signs point to him getting plenty of chances to show his stuff. He seems like he stands a pretty good chance to score I would guess too. I would probably go with Foster over McCoy if that were my choices, but I definitely agree that McCoy is a safer bet for some production ... however the likelihood of Foster outproducing him is realistic enough to me to gamble on it coming true.

I'm leaning in that direction too but I can't commit yet and here's why - the thing about Foster is I think he needs to get a TD to make this gamble pay off. The concern there is it was Moats who got the short TD last week, not Foster, and Brown has gotten goal-line looks during the season. I'm not sure it's a lock that Foster will be the guy who gets the goal-line looks.

 

[PosterNutBag]

Choosing to start a RB who has never started a game before carries considerable risk. Anyone not acknowledging that is fooling themselves. This has to be taken into consideration when deciding whether or not to start him. But his considerable upside should put him in the comparison of steady, medium-level producers who are less risk but less upside. Guys like Barber and Jacobs come to mind. They have a higher floor than Foster but probably a lower ceiling. I just think that the particular comparison of McCoy is a no-brainer as his floor is really not much lower than Foster's with none of the upside. Just my 2 cents on this. Of course, I think Foster has a significant amount of upside and I tend to think the matchups mean more late in the season than throughout the year so I'm putting a lot of stock in the Rams defense performing poorly.

And that's a pretty big factor. I happen to think McCoy's floor is higher because he's guaranteed to get double-digit touches and very likely to get 3+ receptions (especially considering the fact the 49ers struggle with pass-catching RBs). But I agree he doesn't have any upside which is why I'm strongly considering Foster. But the very real possibility that Foster could end up with one or two points has me holding back for the time being. I love the matchup but I'm not sure I trust Foster's potential given how Kubiak has handled the RB situation all season long.

I totally agree. There is no question that McCoy has a higher floor than someone who could easily end up being 3rd fiddle to two other RBs this week. I know the speculation is that Foster gets the lion's share of the touches at RB, but this is Kubiak we are talking about and if we are talking about "RB floors" for week 15, then I am not sure how anyone can say that McCoy has a lower floor than Foster.Foster is a true boom or bust pick this week. All signs point to him getting plenty of chances to show his stuff. He seems like he stands a pretty good chance to score I would guess too. I would probably go with Foster over McCoy if that were my choices, but I definitely agree that McCoy is a safer bet for some production ... however the likelihood of Foster outproducing him is realistic enough to me to gamble on it coming true.

I'm leaning in that direction too but I can't commit yet and here's why - the thing about Foster is I think he needs to get a TD to make this gamble pay off. The concern there is it was Moats who got the short TD last week, not Foster, and Brown has gotten goal-line looks during the season. I'm not sure it's a lock that Foster will be the guy who gets the goal-line looks.

I hear ya, but I don't think I would put too much stock into that given the following:1) Moats' TD was in the 1st Q at a point in the game just minutes after Foster had his first two carries of the game (Foster ended up with 13 carries total). I can see how Moats would be more "trustable" in Kubiak's eyes than Foster at that point.2) Moats had yet to lose the fumble. He did so in the 4th Q and that was his last carry to date (he didn't get another one the rest of the game).So, based on that info from last game, my reasonable conclusion would be that if Foster is competing with anyone for goalline carries it is only Chris Brown, who has proven himself largely ineffective at the goalline. There is no question Foster is quite the gamble, but common sense (which sometimes differs from Kubiak sense) would lead you to believe he will get the rock down low against the Rams.

 

[Man In The Box]

I really envy those of you having to choose between Foster and Ganther. I have both along with Maroney, Wells, and Grant. I have to pick 2. Since I already got a huge game from MJD, and my opponent got a not so great game from Addai, I may just play it safe and go with Grant and Wells. Foster and this matchup is definitely intriguing though.

 

[kyoun1e]

It seems like the only thing holding everyone back from starting Foster is Kubiak since his history with saying one thing and doing another is well documented.

Is it?

I haven't been a Brown/Slaton/Moats owner at all this year so I don't get it.

Can anyone document the situations this year where Kubiak screwed these owners?

From what I remember, Kubiak pulled Slaton after fumbling a couple times and clearly annointed Moats the starting RB. Moats then went on to rumble all over the Bills. The Foster situation seems similar.

No?

KY

 

[Ditka is God]

I think he'll get around 50-80 total yards, but you're really counting on a score more than seeing big yardage from this guy.

First off, great post. But this sentence stuck out at me because I think it's vital. The Texans are a passing team and it's possible (if not probable) that most and maybe even all of their TDs come via the pass. So in order for Foster to really hit the upside many (myself included) think he has, he's going to have to score because if all three RBs are in the mix (and we should expect that to occur) the yardage could be good but not great for him. So can he get a TD? I think that may be the biggest question because we don't know if he'll even be the goal-line guy.

I'm still in the middle of researching Foster ...

What's taking so long?!?!?!?!? Seriously, great stuff you compiled - much obliged!

 

[kyoun1e]

The Texans are a passing team and it's possible (if not probable) that most and maybe even all of their TDs come via the pass.

As an owner of Schaub and Foster, I think you need to look at what took place last week in a blowout. Schaub got ALL of his points in the first half. He did didly in the 2nd half as they basically just handed off. So while Houston is without a doubt a passing team, they wont be come the 2nd half if this game goes as scripted.And if Houston is up big, there's a lot less risk involved with Kubiak playing and keeping Foster out there. A miscue here or there in a blowout is not the same in a tight game. It's also not the same if you aren't playing for a playoff spot.If you think Houston is going to blowout STL, it's hard not to like Foster despite Kubiak's potential for Shananigans.I'm actually thinking of starting Foster to lower my Schaub risk. If they do go up big I get Schaub's points early and Foster's points late...hopefully securing most of the Houston scoring. It would be aggravating as hell to see Houston get up big, Schaub shut it down, and Foster run wild in the 2nd half on the bench. Double negative whammy.KY

 

[Monk81]

I'm actually thinking of starting Foster to lower my Schaub risk. If they do go up big I get Schaub's points early and Foster's points late...hopefully securing most of the Houston scoring. It would be aggravating as hell to see Houston get up big, Schaub shut it down, and Foster run wild in the 2nd half on the bench. Double negative whammy.KY

I think that's a good point. If this game turns into an epic beatdown as many are expecting starting Foster and Schaub may get you most of those points.