This came up from an issue I had when comparing Top 200 lists between the Projections Dominator and The Draft Dominator.
Here is a link to the thread: linky
Here was my initial question: When I import my PD file to DD, the projections seem to be the exact same, but when I compare the Top 200/400 list, the list is different.
Here is a brief summaryof the issue from Bruce Henderson: The PD uses a default TD Distance Distribution for all players of the same position. The DD uses a TD Distance Distribution that is custom for each player. The problem is, is that the DD is based on the VBD which has the individual player TD distributions. The PD is based solely on the website database that is used for the player pages and site projections... and this doesn't have individual player TD distributions.
So, I'm not a stat guy. I can sort of understand that different players are more or less likely to end up with touchdowns of a certain distance (ie the deep receiving threat should catch more long tds than say a TE like Bubba Franks who a few years ago was a goal line td machine, or last year the Bus had a lot of short TD runs, but very few if any TD runs longer than 20 yards).
So, when looking at projections, is it really worthwhile to consider TD distance? Or is a default distribution good enough?
Any thoughts?
Here is a link to the thread: linky
Here was my initial question: When I import my PD file to DD, the projections seem to be the exact same, but when I compare the Top 200/400 list, the list is different.
Here is a brief summaryof the issue from Bruce Henderson: The PD uses a default TD Distance Distribution for all players of the same position. The DD uses a TD Distance Distribution that is custom for each player. The problem is, is that the DD is based on the VBD which has the individual player TD distributions. The PD is based solely on the website database that is used for the player pages and site projections... and this doesn't have individual player TD distributions.
So, I'm not a stat guy. I can sort of understand that different players are more or less likely to end up with touchdowns of a certain distance (ie the deep receiving threat should catch more long tds than say a TE like Bubba Franks who a few years ago was a goal line td machine, or last year the Bus had a lot of short TD runs, but very few if any TD runs longer than 20 yards).
So, when looking at projections, is it really worthwhile to consider TD distance? Or is a default distribution good enough?
Any thoughts?
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