Statistics question re: pics returned for 6 (1 Viewer)

[CletiusMaximus]

Is there a resource where one could find lifetime stats for NFL QB's on the number of interceptions that were returned for touchdowns?

The background is simple - two old, angry, bitter and slightly drunk Packer fans sitting at a bar on Monday night watching the game and one of them says, "I'll bet Favre leads the NFL all-time in pics returned to the house."

Can this be confirmed?

 

[videoguy505]

I heard Testaverde but I don't see stats.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I've been working on a blog post on this. Probably come out tomorrow or early next week.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

I remember a half decade ago or so the Miami Dolphins QB (Feeley maybe?) threw something like 10 of them in a season. That guy was horrible

 

[Ike]

I think Vinny threw 35 picks in '88.

 

[videoguy505]

I've been working on a blog post on this. Probably come out tomorrow or early next week.

So who is it?

 

[dgreen]

Favre has thrown almost 50 more INTs than anyone else, so I'd guess he probably leads in career pick sixes.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The short answer is, Favre.

The long answer: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7473

Which quarterback has thrown the most interceptions that have been returned for touchdowns in league history? While we don't have that exact data available, we can do a reasonably job of answering that question based on the tools we do have here at PFR, which include:

* Individual game logs for all players, showing all interceptions thrown, dating back to 1960

* Individual season logs for all players, showing all interceptions thrown, dating back to 1920

* Scoring logs for all scores, showing all interceptions returned for a touchdown, dating back to 1940

For any game from 1960 to 2009 (2010 data not included), we can do a very good job approximating who threw the pick-six. For the vast majority of teams, only one player (at most) will throw an interception in any given game. Fifty years from now, if you look at the box score from this past Monday night, you will be able to know for sure that Brett Favre threw the interception that Dwight Lowery returned for a touchdown. The Vikings threw just one interception, and it was by Favre, so Favre must have thrown the pick-six. It doesn't matter if the team has thrown five interceptions, as long as all were thrown by the same guy, such as Keith Null against the Titans last year.

The problem games are the ones where multiple players, usually quarterbacks, threw interceptions. For example, against the Patriots earlier this season, Chad Henne threw three interceptions and Tyler Thigpen threw one. We can check the game log to see that Chung's interception came on a pass from Henne, but we don't have game logs dating back to 1960. The shortcut we'll use? Award Henne 0.75 pick-sixes and Thigpen 0.25; obviously this isn't perfect, but over the course of a player's career, I think this will work well as an approximation.

For games from 1940 to 1960, we'll have to be quite a bit rougher with our approximation. In this 1957 game against the Packers, Jack Christiansen scored on a 29-yard interception return. Whom do we blame on the Packers for that? In 1957, Babe Parilli threw 12 interceptions, Bart Starr threw 10, and Ron Kramer threw 1 for Green Bat; as a result, Christiansen's pick-six gets recorded as 0.52 P-6s for Parilli, 0.43 for Starr and 0.04 for Kramer. That's the best we can do for the pre-1960 games.

Rest of article and table showing all the QBs with at least 7 pick-sixes, available here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7473

 

[LittlePhatty]

"I'll bet Favre leads the NFL all-time in pics returned to the house."

A little Freudian slip with "pics" there instead of "picks"?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

if you're going to start a thread about favre entitled "taints" at least put a NSFW on it.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

The short answer is, Favre.

The long answer: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7473

Which quarterback has thrown the most interceptions that have been returned for touchdowns in league history? While we don't have that exact data available, we can do a reasonably job of answering that question based on the tools we do have here at PFR, which include:

* Individual game logs for all players, showing all interceptions thrown, dating back to 1960

* Individual season logs for all players, showing all interceptions thrown, dating back to 1920

* Scoring logs for all scores, showing all interceptions returned for a touchdown, dating back to 1940

For any game from 1960 to 2009 (2010 data not included), we can do a very good job approximating who threw the pick-six. For the vast majority of teams, only one player (at most) will throw an interception in any given game. Fifty years from now, if you look at the box score from this past Monday night, you will be able to know for sure that Brett Favre threw the interception that Dwight Lowery returned for a touchdown. The Vikings threw just one interception, and it was by Favre, so Favre must have thrown the pick-six. It doesn't matter if the team has thrown five interceptions, as long as all were thrown by the same guy, such as Keith Null against the Titans last year.

The problem games are the ones where multiple players, usually quarterbacks, threw interceptions. For example, against the Patriots earlier this season, Chad Henne threw three interceptions and Tyler Thigpen threw one. We can check the game log to see that Chung's interception came on a pass from Henne, but we don't have game logs dating back to 1960. The shortcut we'll use? Award Henne 0.75 pick-sixes and Thigpen 0.25; obviously this isn't perfect, but over the course of a player's career, I think this will work well as an approximation.

For games from 1940 to 1960, we'll have to be quite a bit rougher with our approximation. In this 1957 game against the Packers, Jack Christiansen scored on a 29-yard interception return. Whom do we blame on the Packers for that? In 1957, Babe Parilli threw 12 interceptions, Bart Starr threw 10, and Ron Kramer threw 1 for Green Bat; as a result, Christiansen's pick-six gets recorded as 0.52 P-6s for Parilli, 0.43 for Starr and 0.04 for Kramer. That's the best we can do for the pre-1960 games.

Rest of article and table showing all the QBs with at least 7 pick-sixes, available here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7473

+1

 

[oso diablo]

Rest of article and table showing all the QBs with at least 7 pick-sixes, available here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7473

on a per-attempt basis, Favre is dead-on the average for this dataset, at 0.33 pick-sixes per 100 attempts. Namath is one of the worst, at 0.69 per 100 attempts.

 

[GregR_2]

I realize that the OP's question was about most, but to me that is only a slightly interesting question because QBs have thrown so many differing number of attempts.

To me the more interesting stat would be how many attempts per pick 6 on average. It looks like from the data Chase provided of 111 QBs with at least 7 INTs returned for a TD, Frank Tripucka is the worst in NFL history, throwing a pick 6 every 112 passing attempts.

Most notable placing low in the list, Joe Namath is 4th worst all time, a pick 6 every 145 pass attempts.

Best of all time? Joe Montana, with 627 pass attempts between each pick 6. The top 10:

Joe Montana 626.9Tom Brady 577.8Matt Hasselbeck 547.9Donovan McNabb 539.3Ken Anderson 514.4Fran Tarkenton 486.2Boomer Esiason 481.9Bernie Kosar 480.7Daunte Culpepper 457.0Dan Fouts 455.6
Other players of note:

Peyton Manning 24th.

John Elway 26th

Troy Aikman 27th

Johnny Unitas 50th

Brett Favre 51st

Dan Marino 66th

Kurt Warner 83rd

 

[oso diablo]

Best of all time? Joe Montana, with 627 pass attempts between each pick 6.

not sure we can say who is the best or top 10 on the good side, as QBs with fewer than 7 pick-sixes were not posted. For example, Roger Staubach is missing.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I realize that the OP's question was about most, but to me that is only a slightly interesting question because QBs have thrown so many differing number of attempts.To me the more interesting stat would be how many attempts per pick 6 on average. It looks like from the data Chase provided of 111 QBs with at least 7 INTs returned for a TD, Frank Tripucka is the worst in NFL history, throwing a pick 6 every 112 passing attempts. Most notable placing low in the list, Joe Namath is 4th worst all time, a pick 6 every 145 pass attempts.Best of all time? Joe Montana, with 627 pass attempts between each pick 6. The top 10:

Joe Montana 	626.9Tom Brady 	577.8Matt Hasselbeck 	547.9Donovan McNabb 	539.3Ken Anderson 	514.4Fran Tarkenton 	486.2Boomer Esiason 	481.9Bernie Kosar 	480.7Daunte Culpepper 	457.0Dan Fouts 	455.6

Other players of noteeyton Manning 24th. John Elway 26thTroy Aikman 27thJohnny Unitas 50thBrett Favre 51stDan Marino 66thKurt Warner 83rd

Without adjusting for era, I don't think this will be all that useful. Just my

 

[oso diablo]

Without adjusting for era, I don't think this will be all that useful. Just my

i did a regression, and didn't find that Pick6 frequency was highly correlated with era. On the other hand, overall interception rate is HIGHLY correlated with era.

 

[captain_amazing]

Without adjusting for era, I don't think this will be all that useful. Just my

i did a regression, and didn't find that Pick6 frequency was highly correlated with era. On the other hand, overall interception rate is HIGHLY correlated with era.

I would assume, as picks go up, pick6 would as well. More deep balls being thrown? That would be my guess. You could do a correlation between # of 20+ yds throws and pick6's, but I think common-sense would prevail, unless there is some other reason to explain that.

 

[oso diablo]

I would assume, as picks go up, pick6 would as well. More deep balls being thrown? That would be my guess. You could do a correlation between # of 20+ yds throws and pick6's, but I think common-sense would prevail, unless there is some other reason to explain that.

don't have that data, just this vague sense of received wisdom that in the 70s and earlier, the passing game was more vertical and risky. Hence, more INTs but not necessarily more Pick6.

 

[TWP]

Without adjusting for era, I don't think this will be all that useful. Just my

i did a regression, and didn't find that Pick6 frequency was highly correlated with era. On the other hand, overall interception rate is HIGHLY correlated with era.

I would assume, as picks go up, pick6 would as well. More deep balls being thrown? That would be my guess. You could do a correlation between # of 20+ yds throws and pick6's, but I think common-sense would prevail, unless there is some other reason to explain that.

As picks go up, i'm sure TAINTs go up, but not proportionally. I would be willing to bet they go down proportionally. TAINTs happen on screen plays, slants, quick outs, etc. Those plays dont get picked off often, but when they do they go for 6. Deep balls get picked more often, but dont get returned often, I'm guessing. Would be curious to see length of pass and TAINT relationship, if that's available...

 

[Limp Ditka]

Most notable placing low in the list, Joe Namath is 4th worst all time, a pick 6 every 145 pass attempts.

Further solidifying his spot as the least deserving Hall of Famer