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Stay off the ledge (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
My annual bump of this thread....

I posted something along these lines in a different thread, but it bears repeating again and again this week.

The most important part of early season roster management -- particularly in dynasty leagues -- is knowing when to act and when to react. At this point of the year, reacting to one game without considering all the factors involved is a huge mistake.

Don't go grab the one week wonder and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week without considering all the variables. Look at the entire boxscore, not just the statline of the player you have rostered. Understand the flow of the game and how it affected opportunity. Some big games will stand out even more to you. Some big games won't be as impressive. And some "mediocre" games will begin to show themselves for the solid games they are.

On the other hand, sometimes waiting for a trend to develop is a good idea sometimes it isn't. Sometimes you need to act and grab a corner or defensive lineman when you see that breakout week. Again, a close look at the gamebook and your understanding of the skill set and scheme will help you sort through the studs and duds fairly easily.

We all need to take a deep, cleansing breath before considering our options.

 
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Don't go grab the one week wonder (read: Brady Poppinga) and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week (read: Gerald Hayes) without considering all the variables.
Poor statistical week? Hayes scored 40 points for me this week.
That's why it's in quotes. There were others last evening suggesting that 5 solo tackles implied Hayes would be a bust this season.
Was Hayes playing in the nickel package? If so, do you think he will stay there when Dansby gets back? I would really like to keep Hayes in my starting lineup.
 
If the boards this morning represent public opinion, then you should consider a course of action or lack thereof based on what people are writing. I am convinced that there is not a larger group of people more prone to knee jerk reaction than the average FF junkie or Dallas Cowboy fan.

It is clear that people are overreacting either for or against certain players and situations. Their ability to navigate common sense with their IQ are temporarily suspended. Their cognitive skills are now very much EQ oriented. Press hard and take advantage of the situation and them.

Someone in your league hit the panic button about 9:45 p.m. yesterday evening. Find him sooner than later and do a little business.

 
Don't go grab the one week wonder (read: Brady Poppinga) and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week (read: Gerald Hayes) without considering all the variables.
Poor statistical week? Hayes scored 40 points for me this week.
You know, I was really, really confused about this for a moment... I was like, Hayes plays tonight! Then I realized this was a bump from last year.Duh.
 
Don't go grab the one week wonder (read: Brady Poppinga) and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week (read: Gerald Hayes) without considering all the variables.
Poor statistical week? Hayes scored 40 points for me this week.
You know, I was really, really confused about this for a moment... I was like, Hayes plays tonight! Then I realized this was a bump from last year.Duh.
:) It was partly laziness and partly to illustrate that the same issues occur every season.
 
The most important part of early season roster management -- particularly in dynasty leagues -- is knowing when to act and when to react. At this point of the year, reacting to one game without considering all the factors involved is a huge mistake.

Don't go grab the one week wonder and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week without considering all the variables.
Jim Leonhard, anyone? :lol:
 
The most important part of early season roster management -- particularly in dynasty leagues -- is knowing when to act and when to react. At this point of the year, reacting to one game without considering all the factors involved is a huge mistake.

Don't go grab the one week wonder and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week without considering all the variables.
Jim Leonhard, anyone? :lmao:
Hmm, One thing I do know...Jermaine Phillips was supposed to be a one week wonder last year and possibly lose his job at different times throughout the season. Yet he finished in the top ten in most scoring systems and started off with a bang this year too. Don't underestimate some of the one week wonders.

 
The most important part of early season roster management -- particularly in dynasty leagues -- is knowing when to act and when to react. At this point of the year, reacting to one game without considering all the factors involved is a huge mistake.

Don't go grab the one week wonder and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week without considering all the variables.
Jim Leonhard, anyone? :lmao:
Hmm, One thing I do know...Jermaine Phillips was supposed to be a one week wonder last year and possibly lose his job at different times throughout the season. Yet he finished in the top ten in most scoring systems and started off with a bang this year too. Don't underestimate some of the one week wonders.
:banned: I was loudly proclaiming the downside of Phillips last year and would do the same again given the same information. But the larger point is key. It's just as important to determine which one-week-wonder is the real deal as knowing which are lineup killers in waiting.

 
The most important part of early season roster management -- particularly in dynasty leagues -- is knowing when to act and when to react. At this point of the year, reacting to one game without considering all the factors involved is a huge mistake.

Don't go grab the one week wonder and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week without considering all the variables.
Jim Leonhard, anyone? :unsure:
Hmm, One thing I do know...Jermaine Phillips was supposed to be a one week wonder last year and possibly lose his job at different times throughout the season. Yet he finished in the top ten in most scoring systems and started off with a bang this year too. Don't underestimate some of the one week wonders.
While advising people not to jump off the ledge it may also be wise to advise some not to be too enamored with their draft picks. I've got Mario Williams hitting a homerun in week one, but I much preferred Vanden Bosch on draft day. I wanted Weddle for the stretch run when I expect him to take over in SD, but much preferred Bethea on draft day. Those two guys I didn't draft, I would have if they didn't go a little before I expected. Now Bethea and VDB have been cut by other people giving up too soon. It's probably not wise for me to remain faithful to my draft picks (all of them), but making room for these "upgrades" is heartbreaking. Why can't people just enjoy the view from the ledge for a couple weeks?

 
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The most important part of early season roster management -- particularly in dynasty leagues -- is knowing when to act and when to react. At this point of the year, reacting to one game without considering all the factors involved is a huge mistake.

Don't go grab the one week wonder and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week without considering all the variables.
Jim Leonhard, anyone? :goodposting:
Hmm, One thing I do know...Jermaine Phillips was supposed to be a one week wonder last year and possibly lose his job at different times throughout the season. Yet he finished in the top ten in most scoring systems and started off with a bang this year too. Don't underestimate some of the one week wonders.
There's something to be said for that, too. If you have the roster space and a real need at that position, grabbing that guy who suddenly had a career week might be a risk worth taking. You just have to be prepared for the eventuality that he puts up a goose egg the next week.
 
Don't go grab the one week wonder (read: Brady Poppinga) and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week (read: Gerald Hayes) without considering all the variables.
Poor statistical week? Hayes scored 40 points for me this week.
You know, I was really, really confused about this for a moment... I was like, Hayes plays tonight! Then I realized this was a bump from last year.Duh.
:goodposting: It was partly laziness and partly to illustrate that the same issues occur every season.
One question: did it end up taking longer to find this old thread than retyping it would have? :goodposting:
 
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Don't go grab the one week wonder (read: Brady Poppinga) and drop a guy who had a "poor" statistical week (read: Gerald Hayes) without considering all the variables.
Poor statistical week? Hayes scored 40 points for me this week.
You know, I was really, really confused about this for a moment... I was like, Hayes plays tonight! Then I realized this was a bump from last year.Duh.
:goodposting: It was partly laziness and partly to illustrate that the same issues occur every season.
One question: did it end up taking longer to find this old thread than retyping it would have? :wall:
Nope -- I knew I started it last September. That's good enough even for an addled and search-impaired brain like mine. :)
 
Bumping this thread for the third consecutive season. :confused:

Will get around to analyzing the poor games and the unexpectedly good ones soon, but for now remember not to get too fussy with your studs without a very good reason.

 
Ironic.. after I point out how "your' top LBs had shi**y performances regarding rankings.. :unsure:
Your post absolutely reminded me to bump that thread. I should've remembered to bump it after Antonio Pierce's effort on Thursday night. :oHowever, bumping the thread was not meant to defend "my" preseason linebacker thoughts. It was intended to remind people not to take the numbers we're seeing this weekend at face value without critically looking into them. I know I'll be closely considering those numbers very closely this weekend. If there's something that would strongly suggest that a player's above or below expected numbers will likely continue, you better believe I'm going to highlight it -- regardless of what my prior thoughts were. I did that with Jonathan Vilma two seasons ago very early in the season.It's a cautionary reminder not to dump Aaron Schobel for Kenyon Coleman and to pay close attention to when a guy like Patrick Willis explodes in his first week. I won't be defensively sticking to my guns about Paul Posluszny nor will I be bragging about the days of Yeremiah Bell or Rodney Harrison this week. They'll all get objective analysis. That's the point of the original post in this thread, nothing more.
 
Ironic.. after I point out how "your' top LBs had shi**y performances regarding rankings.. :mellow:
Your post absolutely reminded me to bump that thread. I should've remembered to bump it after Antonio Pierce's effort on Thursday night. :cry:However, bumping the thread was not meant to defend "my" preseason linebacker thoughts. It was intended to remind people not to take the numbers we're seeing this weekend at face value without critically looking into them. I know I'll be closely considering those numbers very closely this weekend. If there's something that would strongly suggest that a player's above or below expected numbers will likely continue, you better believe I'm going to highlight it -- regardless of what my prior thoughts were. I did that with Jonathan Vilma two seasons ago very early in the season.It's a cautionary reminder not to dump Aaron Schobel for Kenyon Coleman and to pay close attention to when a guy like Patrick Willis explodes in his first week. I won't be defensively sticking to my guns about Paul Posluszny nor will I be bragging about the days of Yeremiah Bell or Rodney Harrison this week. They'll all get objective analysis. That's the point of the original post in this thread, nothing more.
Very true Gene.. I trust your rankings. Just trying to stir it up. Was dissapointed today but over the season I know I'll come up on top.No worries.. I listen to the IDP podcast, I know this is only week 1 and that its a marathon not a race. :unsure:
 
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Ironic.. after I point out how "your' top LBs had shi**y performances regarding rankings.. :unsure:
Your post absolutely reminded me to bump that thread. I should've remembered to bump it after Antonio Pierce's effort on Thursday night. :cry:However, bumping the thread was not meant to defend "my" preseason linebacker thoughts. It was intended to remind people not to take the numbers we're seeing this weekend at face value without critically looking into them. I know I'll be closely considering those numbers very closely this weekend. If there's something that would strongly suggest that a player's above or below expected numbers will likely continue, you better believe I'm going to highlight it -- regardless of what my prior thoughts were. I did that with Jonathan Vilma two seasons ago very early in the season.It's a cautionary reminder not to dump Aaron Schobel for Kenyon Coleman and to pay close attention to when a guy like Patrick Willis explodes in his first week. I won't be defensively sticking to my guns about Paul Posluszny nor will I be bragging about the days of Yeremiah Bell or Rodney Harrison this week. They'll all get objective analysis. That's the point of the original post in this thread, nothing more.
Very true Gene.. I trust your rankings. Just trying to stir it up. Was dissapointed today but over the season I know I'll come up on top.No worries.. I listen to the IDP podcast, I know this is only week 1 and that its a marathon not a race. :cry:
Stirring it up is cool as long as it doesn't come off as being a tool -- which I'm not implying that you were. We're writing about defense here, so we aren't prima donnas over here. :mellow:We'll take all feedback and we're all more than willing to take our lumps when we deserve them, especially if it generates productive discussion along the way.And, with Willis, Pos, Beason, Witherspoon, Harris, etc, etc all relatively struggling today, it's going to be a hopping week of "What should we do?" in the Forum and in our columns and podcasts.
 
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Also, entirely generally speaking here, please consider the following before you get too fussy over a couple of the notables today.

Five solos per game projects to 80 solos for an entire season.

Six solos per game projects to 96 solos for an entire season.

Ten solos per game projects to 160 solos for an entire season.

Variability and volatility and sample size are going to be huge topics of conversation this week, but just consider that one little solo tackle this week -- projected over a full season -- makes a huge difference. Nearly every one of the stud backers last season had a game with four or less solos. And all those 8-9 solo tackle games we saw from the LB1 group last season were usually the exception rather than the rule.

And this is as good a place as any to note that we're going to be tracking tackle opportunity and the type of tackle opportunity each team is generating and facing very closely early in the season in the Reading the Defense column and two new features that we'll be debuting this week -- a huge spreadsheet of team based statistics and a matchup column highlighting some of the weekly sweet spots in the data.

 
Could a Tool be someone who puts guys in top 5 for 2 games started in an entire career rather than someone who asks the question of players being over hyped for same reason?

You tell me...

I think though ill hearted is valid argument about some the rankings I view but then again.. you guys are the PRO'S while I'm just a trader.. :thumbdown:

 
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Could a Tool be someone who puts guys in top 5 for 2 games started in an entire career rather than someone who asks the question of players being over hyped for same reason? You tell me...I think though ill hearted is valid argument about some the rankings I view but then again.. you guys are the PRO'S.. :thumbdown:
I can't speak for anyone else, but if you are referring to Posluszny, I have seen enough to consider him a top 10 LB both now and long-term. It goes beyond the few games that he started. It goes back to the draft last year, camp and preseason both last year and this year, and his great play last year prior to being hurt. I have no reservations ranking him in the top 10 because I see a long-term stud when I see him play. Today does not affect my thoughts one bit.
 
Could a Tool be someone who puts guys in top 5 for 2 games started in an entire career rather than someone who asks the question of players being over hyped for same reason? You tell me...I think though ill hearted is valid argument about some the rankings I view but then again.. you guys are the PRO'S while I'm just a trader.. :excited:
I don't think your initial post was toolish and I believe I said as much. Stir away, brother. We can handle it.I might be proven an idiot for ranking Posluszny where I did, but I felt I made a considered argument when I did so. We'll see how everything washes out by the end of the year, and I'll be reassessing these situations every week where indicated.
 
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last year, Posluszny put up 17 solos and 9 assists in 3 games played before breaking his arm and going on IR. he was replaced in the lineup by John DiGiorgio, an undrafted free agent in his 2nd year as a pro. DiGiorgio put up 86 solos and 27 assists. If you combine the numbers from both players, you get 103 solos and 36 assists. Seems pretty reasonable to think that Posluszny could have put up those type of numbers last year if he had remained healthy.

However, there are a few good reasons for why his numbers this year won't be as good as many expect:

(a) the Marcus Stroud and Spencer Johnson signings should have a dramatic impact on the run defense. Better run defense likely will mean fewer snaps.

(b) the Bills should be improved on offense with Edwards in his 2nd year as a starter, a new offensive coordinator, addition of James Hardy, etc. Better offense will mean more sustained drives and fewer snaps for the defense.

© the Bills went from playing one of the most difficult schedules in the league last year to playing one of the easiest schedules in the league this year. that will allow them to play with a lead more often, and should result in more pass attempts against and fewer rush attempts against for the defense.

 
The last few posts were exactly what I was trying to head off with an earlier post.

This Forum has long prided itself on its civil discussion and lack of name calling. Strong opinions and challenging posts are encouraged. Name calling will absolutely not be tolerated.

Period.

 
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Sharing one of many statistical looks into the September Backer Crash of 2008 from this week's Reading the Defense column.

Predict the percentage of games with four solo tackles or less from the league's top ten tackling linebackers in 2007.

Predict the percentage of games with five solo tackles or less from the league's top ten tackling linebackers in 2007.

Plenty more discussion behind those numbers, their implications and whether they're trustworthy to come in this week's column. We'll look at a list of ten backers whose stock seems to be dropping like a rock, and a few that seemed to have survived the carnage and crisis.

 
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Jene Bramel said:
Predict the percentage of games with four solo tackles or less from the league's top ten tackling linebackers in 2007.

Predict the percentage of games with four solo tackles or less from the league's top ten tackling linebackers in 2007.
Jene, it looks like you have a typo in here somewhere. You ask for the same prediction twice.
 
Jene Bramel said:
Predict the percentage of games with four solo tackles or less from the league's top ten tackling linebackers in 2007.

Predict the percentage of games with four solo tackles or less from the league's top ten tackling linebackers in 2007.
Jene, it looks like you have a typo in here somewhere. You ask for the same prediction twice.
:moneybag: Copied the line and forgot to edit the second one. Second line should read "five" solo tackles. Edited above. Thanks.

 
In case you missed them, there's a lot of discussion about these issues (among many others) in this week's Eyes of the Guru, Reading the Defense and free weekly IDP Roundtable podcast on The Audible.

 

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