BoltBacker
Footballguy
Weren't people trying to make a case PIT had a shot at beating NE in NE just three weeks ago? Now they aren't even a favorite at home in the first round of the playoffs.
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Steelers underdogs at home vs a WC.... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BoltBacker
- Start date
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
can you link me to wildcard weekend odds, as well as each teams odds of winning the superbowl. was trying earlier but im not a gambler..
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I just have game lines at the site I frequent;PIT +1SEA -4.5TB -2.5They won't have futures yet because the field is only minutes old. The Young injury may make the lines kind of slow too.
SteelerMurf
Footballguy
That's why they play the game....and Steelers LOVE being the underdogs, especially at home prime timeAnd maybe take a little note to the injuries as to why they would be underdogs.Parker (out)A. Smith (out and the reason you can run on Pitt)Marvel Smith (left tackle out)Max Starks (left tackle probably out this week)Troy (most likely questionable)
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JaxBill
Footballguy
Yeah TEN-SD may be off the board for a day or two. Of course, the Haynesworth injury might actually have a bigger influence on the score.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Good point. I think every TEN game I've seen this season Haynesworth has left the game at some point so I'm just getting used to it. I expect him to play and play well on Sunday.Being a SD fan I was really hoping they'd get matched up vs CLE in the first round. Have nothing but respect for Fisher and the Titans. Last game was a classic and I'm sure this one will be just as hard hitting. SD had better dream up some better protection schemes because Rivers is obviously still hobbled from the last matchup vs TEN, he'll be a sitting duck in the pocket if they pass protect like they did last time.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
If I were still a betting man, I would be all over Tampa Bay. The Giants blew their load last night trying to beat New England.
Jacksonville could be a trap bet, too, as how often do teams win at Pittsburgh twice in a month. Sure, the Jags are a better team, but winning at Heinz Field again will be tough.
Seattle/Washington is a tough call. I think the Seahawks win, but it could be close, so 4 1/2 might be a bit much to give.
Jacksonville could be a trap bet, too, as how often do teams win at Pittsburgh twice in a month. Sure, the Jags are a better team, but winning at Heinz Field again will be tough.
Seattle/Washington is a tough call. I think the Seahawks win, but it could be close, so 4 1/2 might be a bit much to give.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
I'll Take Steelers +1, total trap bet. Every media hack been hyping Jax for 3 straight weeks as the team "nobody wants to face". Tough to win on the road in the Playoffs, home team here.
SEA -4.5 - tough call on this one, I could see the Skins winning. That said I believe the Seahawks will bring pressure on Collins that he hasnt faced yet, the crowd is very loud there, will be tough to keep the emotion up for the Skins.
TB -2.5 - Giants thought the playoffs were a couple days ago.
SD -9, would be hesitant to lay more then that, we'll have to see what the line is, but the Bolts Defense is going to be fired up to face the Titans again after all the trash talk, late hits, going after Merriman, etc.
SEA -4.5 - tough call on this one, I could see the Skins winning. That said I believe the Seahawks will bring pressure on Collins that he hasnt faced yet, the crowd is very loud there, will be tough to keep the emotion up for the Skins.
TB -2.5 - Giants thought the playoffs were a couple days ago.
SD -9, would be hesitant to lay more then that, we'll have to see what the line is, but the Bolts Defense is going to be fired up to face the Titans again after all the trash talk, late hits, going after Merriman, etc.
Steeler
Footballguy
Sure Smith is underrated and a terrific player... but he's the linchpin for the whole defense? Other starters can't tackle any longer because he's out with an injury? I'm not buying this at all.
Pai Mei
Footballguy
oops on both LTs right? one's RT no?
I'm not going to argue who will (or should) win the Pitt-Jax game, but vegas lines mean nothing, the steelers were underdogs for every game in '05 the last time the ran the table to win the SB...all the vegas line does is try and get even money on both sides, and yes they will use what the perception of the average betting fan thinks about both teams and the media as well to find that line that will get money on both sides (unless you're one of those people that think vegas controls the outcome of certain NFL games, but i assume you're not)....pitt+playing bad / jax+playing good = jax -1I'm sure the steelers players are going to love seeing themselves underdogs at home this week...
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
M Smith is our primary LT. out for the year.Starks was listed as the backup RT this year but when Smith went down, Starks played LT (past couple weeks). Starks went down Sunday with a sprained knee, is unlikely to play next week from what we know now.
LT will now be Trai Essex. ::gulp::
Edit to clear up pronoun ambiguity
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah I agree except I'm not sure about the San Diego game. I think that will be a little closer than people think.I'm going to put some money in my account for this Steelers game. Too many people are on the JAX bandwagon but the Steelers are awfully tough at home and they are gonna be pissed having to listen to all this crap all week. I think the Giants are better than Tampa which gives me pause but the Bucs feed off mistakes and the Giants make a lot of mistakes.
thanks for clearing that up
Titans should have beaten the Chargers last time. Their 4th quarter collapse was pretty rough. It took OT to seal that game so I'm hoping for another gem. The Haynesworth led Titans D is terrific, has been all year, yet they keep getting unappreciated.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Trai Essex starting at LT is trouble, BIG trouble. Faneca isn't going to know which way to turn since he's been helping C Shaun Mahan all season and now he has to help out Essex. Tomlin said he was hopeful Starks could play next week so maybe the injury isn't that bad.The big question for the Steelers in this game is can they figure out a way to fix their run defense. Sure there were a lot of missed tackles but they also seemed to be over-pursuing and getting burned on cut-backs.
**** LeBeau has one week to come up with a way to stop the run. It would help if the Steelers could jump out to an early lead...
Kyzersosik
Footballguy
The Steelers, like any other team`s bread and butter is their off. and def lines. Right now, maybe for the last month or so, they aren`t controlling either one. Big Ben has been on the run for awhile and teams are having more success running the ball on Pitt then they``ve had in a long time. Ya all the talk is "nobody wants to play the Jags" but i think the Steelers find a way this weekend, 27-24.
There it is
Footballguy
I hope you are right.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
This is just not true at all. At that time, the Steelers were playing at a high level and much of the media also gave the Steelers a good chance. Of course, the Pats proved that the Steelers were not nearly as good as what they were made out to be.....
twitch
Footballguy
I agree. There were plenty of people out there picking the Steelers to win that NE game. And I had thought all year that the Steelers game was the toughest game on NE's schedule because 1) theyre a good team, but 2) NE was gonna be coming off a Monday nighter against the Ravens and would be banged up and on short rest. Now in hindsight, the game didnt turn out to be NE's toughest, and the Steelers turned around and lost the next week against the Jags. But that's what happens sometimes after a big loss or tough game the previous week. A team gets banged up or has an emotional letdown. Jacksonville was coming off a 37-6 blowout win at home against Carolina. Hardly the same kindof game Pittsburgh had to deal with the previous week against the Patriots. The fact that the Steelers are considered underdogs in next week's rematch should only serve to fire them up a little more.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
As it should be. The Jaguars spanked the Steelers just two weeks ago in Pittsburgh, largely due to the fact that the Steelers lost Aaron Smith and somehow he's been the linchpin to their entire run defense. He's not coming back this year so that means a lot of Fred and MJD down the Steelers throats I'm afraid.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Realistically their only chance is to play the lack of respect card but I'm not sure even that will be enough to help them. The Jags are not a good matchup for anyone but least of all the Steelers (who all of a sudden can't stop the run). Also, the Jags will not respect the Steelers running game anymore so they can tee off on Ben. I'm not sure why people wouldn't be jumping on the Jags at -1 in this game......
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
While I think the Steelers could very well win, the last two times I remember them being underdogs at home were the AFC title game against the Patriots three years ago and the AFC title game following the '97 season against the Broncos. The Steelers lost both of those games, so I am not buying the whole "they will play the no respect card and win the game" line of thinking here.
Ralph Furley
Footballguy
Godsbrother
Footballguy
While I agree the Jaguars running game is a bad matchup for the Steelers I think you are strecthing it when you say their only chance is to play the lack of respect card (and I am not exactly sure what you mean by that anyway).The game was tied with less than 4 minutes the last time these teams played. This has all the makings of a tough, low scoring game.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Mahan has been the weak link on the O-line all year. Now there's a weaker one at the all-important LT spot.A.Smith may be the single-most important player on the D. Hampton is about as good, but we found that his replacement is very adequate, while nobody has been able to fill Smith's shoes. Hell, we haven't found anybody to fill Kimo V's shoes yet. All 3 D-linemen need to be studs in a 2-gap 3-4. Not that you'd notice, 'cause the LBs get all the credit but it's no surprise to me that their pass rush has suffered the last two years and will much more w/o Smith. I'd say he's the 2nd most valuable on the team next to Ben. With an ineffective pass rush, our (average-at-best) secondary is exposed for what they are.
I expect our D to come out to slightly better than the Raider's and that's not gonna get it come playoff time. Under Cowher, this team started very slow and improved throughout the season, peaking right about playoff time. One year is not enough to judge, but under Tomlin, this team came out of the gates hot, and has been steadily cooling off as the season has progressed. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat the Jags at home, but I'm definately not confident in it. No bets from me on this one.
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
What I mean is that at this point in the season, I believe the Jags are a substantially better team than the Steelers. I think a lot of that has to do with injuries but those are the breaks. If the Steelers can use the lack of respect card to somehow motivate them to play above the level they have been playing at over the past 4 or 5 weeks, they have a shot to win the game. Otherwise, I just don't see it. They cannot stop the run and I don't believe they can run the ball as effectively anymore. Their special teams is an absolute disaster. Last time the 2 teams met, the Steelers were in it until the very end. However, I believe thats misleading. They were dominated on both sides of the ball in that game and were very fortunate to be in. If they're dominated like that again, chances are the score won't be as close. I've said before that I don't think the Steelers will get blown out because I don't think Ben will let that happen. He's a gamer and can single-handedly win the game if he gets very hot. From what you've seen of the Steelers over the last 4 or 5 weeks and given their significant injuries, what makes you think they can win this game?
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I agree it does not look good for the Steelers given they way they've played and their injuries but this is the NFL and anything can happen. The Steelers have the more explosive offense and a better QB, TE and WRs. They're more experienced in the playoffs and they are playing at home where they are 7-1 this season. If I were a betting man I would take the Jags but I think it is a mistake to think the Steelers can't win the game.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
If betting, I'd take the Jags. Do the Steelers have a shot? Absolutely. (Wouldn't be shocked in the least if Big Ben put them on his shoulders and they won. He's more than capable of doing so)
If Taylor runs the way he has the last month+, I believe the Jags can represent the AFC. Combine Freddie with another one of the most explosive players in football in MJD, they can keep Brady/Manning off the field. I don't see another team in the AFC that can do that.
Fred Taylor IMO is the single most important player for an individual team's chances in the playoffs. Him getting his will only make MJD that much more of a weapon (and wouldn't be surprised if the latter, despite having the 15+? TD's in 2006, had his national coming out party).
And what I mean by the above comment is that if Brady/Manning were to struggle, I can see Maroney/Addai making up for it and leading them to the next round. I can't see a scenario where the Jags run game struggles and them moving on.
If Taylor runs the way he has the last month+, I believe the Jags can represent the AFC. Combine Freddie with another one of the most explosive players in football in MJD, they can keep Brady/Manning off the field. I don't see another team in the AFC that can do that.
Fred Taylor IMO is the single most important player for an individual team's chances in the playoffs. Him getting his will only make MJD that much more of a weapon (and wouldn't be surprised if the latter, despite having the 15+? TD's in 2006, had his national coming out party).
And what I mean by the above comment is that if Brady/Manning were to struggle, I can see Maroney/Addai making up for it and leading them to the next round. I can't see a scenario where the Jags run game struggles and them moving on.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Why wouldn't the Steelers be slight underdogs?
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Well I agree that anything can happen in the NFL and I hope it does on Saturday. The Steelers definitely have the better qb and te but I'm not so sure about wrs anymore. Ward is still a good receiver but he's no longer a # 1 and has clearly lost a step. Holmes is a playmaker and a legitimate downfield threat. After that, who do they have? The Jags have some nice young talent at wr and it seems like they're improving a lot from week to week.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
The Jaguars finished the year #7 in total offense, #6 in points scored, and #3 in ToP. That looks like a pretty good offense to me.
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Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
cute.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Well said. JAX is getting love like no other for the past several weeks(they have a chance of going into NE and winning... REALLY?) but they are no where near as balanced as those those two teams over the past ten years that have gone into PIT and won. All things being equal I'd be comfortable if I was a PIT fan in that Big Ben has all the playoff experience and despite the fact Garrard has had a great regular season... winning in the playoffs is something else altogether. Roeth has proven time and again he can do it in the playoffs(5 playoff wins). If either team gets down by more than a TD I'd certainly feel more comfortable if I was PIT. Nothing but respect for Garrard and how he's played but he hasn't been asked to do much and hasn't really been tested yet this year imo. If you go back and look at his year all of his "worst" games were games he attempted 30 or more passes and he only had one game that was better than his average when he defeated HOU. Keep in mind I'm calling his "worst" as game where he played below his performance for the year, they weren't bad games per se just well below the bar he's set this season. The best thing about Garrard is he almost NEVER turns the ball over(5 total for the season). I'm a big believer in the "TO battle = win" and it's especially the case in this game. If either of these teams loses the TO battle by 2 or more I don't think they'll be able to overcome it.
timschochet
Footballguy
Well I am a huge Steeler optimist, and I fully expect to win the Superbowl this year. In fact, my main concern is how we stack up against Dallas or Green Bay. Jacksonville, New England, and Indy are all ust bumps on the road.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Because less than a month ago all the talking heads were trying to include PIT in the top 3 teams in the AFC. Yes, they've lost Parker but it's not like any of these Jags have ever won anything in the playoffs.Up until the NE game people were pimping PIT exactly the same way they are pimping JAX now.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The Steelers have looked pretty average over the last five or six weeks, while the Jaguars, yesterday's meaningless game notwithstanding, have looked terrific, so it shouldn't be a mystery as to why the Jags are favored and/or being picked by many to win next week.The ESPN talking heads trying to lump them in with Indy and NE means absolutely nada, as it is pretty clear to almost everyone now that the Steelers are not in the same class as the Patriots or the Colts.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
But initial odds aren't based on emotions or what ESPN talking heads think...they're based on odds makers comparing the two teams across a myriad of statistics and trying to guess what line will bring in even amounts of money to both sides. The Jags were the more impressive team, would you agree?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I'm curious to hear from a majority of PIT homers just how big a blow this is.I don't see a lot of PIT games but every time I watch them it seems like Ben is shedding defenders in the backfield and making plays. Even with the least sackable QB in the NFL they have given up 47 sacks. Pretty bad, but it's even worse if you look closer; Of the ten worst teams for giving up sacks only one of them has averaged fewer than 30 attempts per game - PIT. PIT averages 27.6 passes/game while the next closest team in the top ten averages 32 passes/game and the range goes up to 36.7 passes/game.
That all indicates to me PIT was one of the worst pass blocking units in the league this season. In SD everyone thinks the Chargers have a great OL because they haven't actually watched them play this year. Is it the same case in PIT? Was M.Smith(or any of them for that matter) playing at a high level this season or are they just getting by on rep as being a very good line?
I'm not so sure the PIT OL was playing at a high enough level for injuries to be as big a factor as some are making them out to be, but I'd like to hear the opinion of a few homers.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, that's a good point.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I guess I'm just a big believer in the pendulum theory. Opinions of these teams swings wildly one way or the other while most of the year these teams are what they are. PIT was never one of the "big three" this year regardless of how they looked the last month. Similarly though they are still good enough they should be favored at home vs anyone in the AFC but NE/IND.People act like these teams are actually as good as the "power polls" say they are. A mediocre team doesn't turn into an elite team in three weeks even if it happens all the time in some "power poll".
Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
I'm a Pitt homer and the O-line stinks to high heaven this year. Even in the games where Parker would get 100+yds...you didn't see great run blocking throughout the game like you would in years past. Marvel Smith was an average right tackle (at best) and a horrible left tackle. He played left tackle in college and supposedly that is where he is most comfortable. He's either a backup left tackle or move him back to right tackle...he can't cut it in the NFL as an above avg./ starting left tackle. Faneca is playing disgruntled this year and from the center across the right side they are below average. They need serious overhaul in the O-line if they want to keep their formula for success working. In defense of the O-line...Roth does hang onto the ball too long on many occasions. So it is a little bit of both causing the sack count.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
I don't get to watch them as much as Pitt homers as I'm on the West Coast, but they are my team soo...LT - M.Smith - rnblk-B+, psblk-C+
LG - A.Faneca - rnblk-A-, psblk-B+
C - S.Mahan - rnblk-B-, psblk-C-
RG - K.Simmons - rnblk-B+, psblk-B-
RT - W.Colon - rnblk-B, psblk-C-
utility/fill in T - M.Starks - rnblk B-, psblk C
T.Essex - rnblk C+, psblk D+
All seem better at run blocking than passpro, with only Faneca and possibly Smith being adequate at both. Thankfully, I see Davenport as a more reliable, move-the-chains type RB who can wear a D down some and an improvement as a pass blocker over Parker, though not enough to make up for the loss of Smith.
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Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Lots of disregard for the Jaguars; the story of the franchise. Seriously, when will people wise up?The Jaguars finished the year #7 in total offense, #6 in points scored, and #3 in ToP. That looks like a pretty good offense to me.
Its a travesty we still fly under the radar like this. Good luck AFC.
Fantaholic
Footballguy
The line of Pit +1 is just right.
All it implies is that this should be a very good, tough-fought game. The only reason Jax is favored is because they happen to be the hot team coming in and Pitt has been cold. Other than that, I wouldn't touch this game with a ten foot pole as far as a wager is concerned. Could go either way.
All it implies is that this should be a very good, tough-fought game. The only reason Jax is favored is because they happen to be the hot team coming in and Pitt has been cold. Other than that, I wouldn't touch this game with a ten foot pole as far as a wager is concerned. Could go either way.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Meaning?
