Steelers vs. Patriots-pick a winner (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

My strong dislike of the Patriots had pretty much faded this year, after the loss in the Superbowl and the Brady injury. But that doesn't mean I don't want to beat them badly. First off, the Steelers schedule is such that we can't count on the playoffs: every win is vital. Pittsburgh is still, at the moment, in the running for the bye week, so we need to keep playing for that.

The good news is that the Steelers defense is the best in football, and last week the offense FINALLY showed some signs of life. Big Ben is starting to get healthy. The return of Heath Miller makes a big difference, and I'm pretty satisfied with giving Gary Russell the short yardage carries. Further good news for this game is that the Patriots defense the last several weeks has been suspect.

The bad news is that Matt Cassell the last couple of games looks like a whole new QB. The Pats offense is starting to look like last year, with Moss and Welker making lots of plays, and Cassell showing a strong arm, more mobility than Brady, and awfully good decision making. Further bad news is that the Pats at home in late November and December is extremely difficult to beat. And the worst news of all is that New England owns the Steelers. Other than that one, early in the season victory during Ben's rookie season, we've had no success at all against this team.

Anyhow, I hope for the best. To this point, it's the biggest game yet for the Steelers. Of course it's a huge game for New England as well. Thoughts?

 

[-baller]

I think the pats are awesome.

 

[timschochet]

Added a poll.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

They're all big ones from here on out for the Pats & Steelers. I see very little running game by either team. If the Pats put heat on Roethlisberger and force turnovers they'll win. If the Steelers force Cassell to drive the length of the field I think they'll win. Should be a good one.

 

[Die]

I don't know why anyone would bet against Belichick. He just works miracles. Latest example is Cassel. We can probably put the whole "Belichick can't win without Brady" thing to rest after this year.

 

[packersfan]

If the Pats put heat on Roethlisberger and force turnovers they'll win.

You just named the two things the Patriots' defense doesn't do - they don't get sacks and they don't get takeaways. I like the Steelers to win on the road because of this. Roethlisberger seems to be getting into a groove and I think he'll pick apart the Pats' D. On the other side, Pittsburgh has the defense to put the clamps on the red-hot Matt Cassel.

 

[timschochet]

They're all big ones from here on out for the Pats & Steelers. I see very little running game by either team. If the Pats put heat on Roethlisberger and force turnovers they'll win. If the Steelers force Cassell to drive the length of the field I think they'll win. Should be a good one.

I think, with a little patience, the Steelers can run on the Pats. We just need some effective play-action to open things up.

 

[-baller]

29701, and proud of it.

thx for the announcement.

 

[timschochet]

29701, and proud of it.

thx for the announcement.

Joffer asked me what my number was, then deleted it.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I think the pats are awesome.

freaking

 

[r0llin_game]

I think the pats are awesome.

freaking

you're dead to me

 

[Phlash]

I think the Patriots roll over the Steelers and start picking up some SERIOUS momentum.

 

[Finless]

Pats 27-17

You can quote me on that.

 

[JSH21]

I'm in a local poll here in Pittsburgh where one of the categories is picking the Steelers games against the spread each week. I'm the current leader with 10 wins, and have been going back and forth with this game since last week. As of now I'm leaning towards taking New England. I really don't expect Pittsburgh to go 2 for 2 against New England and Dallas and I think we have a much better chance beating Dallas at home than New England on the road.

 

[Godsbrother]

If the Pats put heat on Roethlisberger and force turnovers they'll win.

You just named the two things the Patriots' defense doesn't do - they don't get sacks and they don't get takeaways. I like the Steelers to win on the road because of this. Roethlisberger seems to be getting into a groove and I think he'll pick apart the Pats' D. On the other side, Pittsburgh has the defense to put the clamps on the red-hot Matt Cassel.

EVERYBODY has been able to get to Roethlisberger and I have no doubt that BB will find a way to get pressure considering the sorry state of the Steelers o-line. It is too bad because Big Ben could do some serious damage given time.This is definitely a winnable game for the Steelers. They have a much better defense but their o-line is going to be their undoing. I hope I am wrong but I am feeling: Pats 24 Steelers 20.

 

[jurb26]

I see these teams as a pretty even match-up therefore I have to give the nod to the home team in a close game.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I really have no idea. Took NE in the office pool, but only because the picks deadline was yesterday.

Pats defense is (obviously) suspect.

The one thing I would say is IF NE wins this game, I REALLY like our playoff chances (making and performing in).

 

[munchkin]

Good tight end play gives the Pats fits. If Heath Miller plays up to his potential he will find all kinds of room in the middle of the weak Pats pass defense. The Patriots can stop the run pretty well but they don't put enough pressure on the QB from a base defense. If the putrid Steelers line gives way to a 4-man rush then the Pats could win this one. Cassel has been playing great but he will need Moss to really step it up against a good team to keep the pressure on their secondary and make the Steelers pay for their blitzes. I want the Pats to win badly but I think the Steelers D will be too much for them to overcome.

 

[Marvin88]

I think the pats are awesome.

freaking

you're dead to me

Pats are only as good as their video equipment.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think the pats are awesome.

freaking

you're dead to me

Pats are only as good as their video equipment.

Marvin is only as good as his handgun.Peace out.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

#1 Scoring Defense

#1 Passing Defense

#1 Rushing Defense

To say the Matt Cassel will have his hands full is an understatement. I think the Steelers win a close game.

 

[Borat]

I think the pats are awesome.

freaking

you're dead to me

Pats are only as good as their video equipment.

You hold on tight to that.

 

[packersfan]

If the Pats put heat on Roethlisberger and force turnovers they'll win.

You just named the two things the Patriots' defense doesn't do - they don't get sacks and they don't get takeaways. I like the Steelers to win on the road because of this. Roethlisberger seems to be getting into a groove and I think he'll pick apart the Pats' D. On the other side, Pittsburgh has the defense to put the clamps on the red-hot Matt Cassel.

EVERYBODY has been able to get to Roethlisberger

The Steelers have allowed just three sacks the past two games. And Roethlisberger has played much better in those games - arguably two of his best games of the season. I don't discount the Belichick factor - especially at home - but the Patriots have lacked defensive punch all season long. They don't rush the passer well and they don't force turnovers. It's certainly possible they pull a huge game out of their a** this week but that's what it would be because there's nothing in the first 11 games that suggests the Patriots are a good bet to record strong sack and takeaway totals this week. Both have been glaring weaknesses this season and I don't think that bodes well going against the Steelers this week.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Been looking at defense stats on nfl.com....

apparently, NE is middle of the pack on sacks, top 10 in interceptions, and bottom of the pack in forced fumbles.

more importantly, Indy and the Jets were able to drive on this defense late to win games.

it would appear the only thing that NE has going for it is the potential to outscore; therefore it behooves Pitt to dial back the blitzes a tad, keep the receivers in front of them, and keep the game close / low-scoring.

in the past, it's been difficult for Pitt to change it's "always attack" defensive mentality.

looks like another NE/Pitt game that will come down to turnovers....

 

[Nemesis]

Not only is this a big game from an NFL playoff standpoint, but this is big from a fantasy standpoint.

And I've gone round and round trying to figure out if some of the key fantasy players in this game should be counted on or avoided altogether.

Cassel: Two 400 yd passing games in a row.......Does the OC dial down the play calling and take less risk this game or more or the same?

Moss: Who will be covering him? Does Pitt 2x cover him? (IMO, they have to 2x cover him in the red zone based on what we saw vs MIA)

Welker: Does he get the same # of touches? If they 2x Moss, is THIS the week he may get his 2nd TD of the yr?

If Pitt def blitzes a lot, does this give him MORE opportunities?

Big Ben:

Parker / Moore / Russell:

Ward: still the main target?

S.Holmes:

What are ya'll doing with these players and your lineups.

Let's shift this thread to discuss it.

 

[PatrickT]

One of the tougher calls this week, but I'm rolling with Pit in a close game.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Not only is this a big game from an NFL playoff standpoint, but this is big from a fantasy standpoint.

And I've gone round and round trying to figure out if some of the key fantasy players in this game should be counted on or avoided altogether.

Cassel: Two 400 yd passing games in a row.......Does the OC dial down the play calling and take less risk this game or more or the same?

Big pass plays should be what NE feeds on in this game. Feast or famine, and I think Gaffney has a good day. 275 yards & 2 TDs.

Moss: Who will be covering him? Does Pitt 2x cover him? (IMO, they have to 2x cover him in the red zone based on what we saw vs MIA)

Moss gets a couple big plays vs Pitt's smallish CBs but doesn't have a great day playing aligator arms when Polo starts flying towards him. Moss doesn't like contact. A red zone TD makes him an OK fantasy play.

Welker: Does he get the same # of touches? If they 2x Moss, is THIS the week he may get his 2nd TD of the yr?

They're gonna need Welker to convert quite a few 3rd & 7 or more. Cassel throws one or two picks while targeting Welker on slants or hooks, and Welker ends up with a mediocre performance for a blue-collar player. 6 for 65 on 13 targets.

If Pitt def blitzes a lot, does this give him MORE opportunities?

If Pitt uses one of their 4 LBs to spy Cassel, he has a tough time. If they don't, he'll be able to step up in the pocket to complete a few more 2nd chance plays or scramble for some usable rushing yards.

Big Ben:

Does well when facing a weak pass rush. NE is an average pass rush, which is a lot better than the piss-poor pressure he's faced the last two weeks. Pitt's O line is one of the worst pass-blocking units in the league and will allow a few sacks this week. Ben has OK #s, but it's a tossup between Ben's INTs & Cassel's fumbles. Parker still limping only highlights the lack of pass protection since the running game isn't a legitimate threat.

Parker / Moore / Russell:

Parker will still be his ##### ### self this week & pull up lame again, or run just tentatively enough to be pretty usless but stay in the game. Russell may get his short-yardage score, but I doubt we see more than 30-40 yards out of him and that's only if Parker goes out in the 1st. Moore, we know is very useful in PPR. If NE puts much pressure on Ben, he may stay in to block more than he goes out for passes. Miller would be the more effective receiver in this game.

Ward: still the main target?

Probably the best play of the Steelers guys. If not, Holmes.

S.Holmes:

Nice play this week. Ben & Santonio are finding a groove together, and Holmes has been targeted (if memory serves) more than Ward lately.Miller - added bonus. He could be a nice play this week, especially if Ben & Arians actually discuss quicker-hitting routes and getting the ball out of Ben's hands this week. Uh, scratch that. Nevermind. Pedestrian stats as usual for Miller, but he does have a good chance to get in the endzone.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Added a poll.

So you can manage a troll poll but not insert a link? Mmmmmkay.

 

[packersfan]

From fantasy perspective here's how I'd view the key figures:

Pittsburgh

QB - Roethlisberger: Has played much better the past two games and might be rounding into form. The Pats have a weak defense, pose little threat in terms of a pass rush and make few big plays in the secondary. I think Roethlisberger is looking real good this week.

RB - Parker: Tough to like him a lot this week. He's clearly hurt and the Pats are decent against the run. Plus, Moore could remain a factor even if Parker plays. (NOTE: If Moore starts, I like him a lot as a flex in PPR leagues)

WR - Ward/Holmes: I'd keep rolling with Ward. I think last week was a fluke and he does every well against this poor secondary. Holmes was having a good game before getting concussed last week so I'd go with him as a WR3 this week for the upside.

TE - Miller: I love him as a flyer this week. The Patriots have issues against TEs (remember what Dustin Keller did to them two weeks ago) and Roethlisberger is really looking for the TE more in the short passing game.

Defense - I'd start the Steelers if I normally would. They should shut down the run and I think their pressure forces Cassel into a turnover or two.

New England

QB - Cassel: I don't like the matchup at all but Cassel is playing at a ridiculously high level so I'd need to have a real strong alternative to sit him. It often pays to keep playing guys who are on serious runs.

RB - Faulk/Morris: I'd sit Morris. I don't see him topping 45 yards rushing against this defense. Faulk should be all over the place as usual so I'd start him with confidence as a flex play in PPR leagues.

WR - Moss/Welker - Again, I don't like the matchup for the Patriots' passing game but Moss is back to being Moss so you start him. Welker is obviously a Must Start in PPR leagues and he's getting so much action he's pretty darn good in standard leagues too even though he isn't scoring (NOTE: I like Jabar Gaffney as a spot starter but not this week).

TE - Watson - You can't trust this guy so I wouldn't bother with him.

Defense - The Patriots have done nothing for fantasy owners this year. They have 0 TDs and they don't make many plays. At this point, the only time I'd even consider starting them is when the matchup is extremely favorable (next week at Seattle could be nice for them). I wouldn't want them anywhere near my starting lineup this week.

 

[dumervil]

From fantasy perspective here's how I'd view the key figures:

Pittsburgh

Defense - I'd start the Steelers if I normally would. They should shut down the run and I think their pressure forces Cassel into a turnover or two.

New England

QB - Cassel: I don't like the matchup at all but Cassel is playing at a ridiculously high level so I'd need to have a real strong alternative to sit him. It often pays to keep playing guys who are on serious runs.

RB - Faulk/Morris: I'd sit Morris. I don't see him topping 45 yards rushing against this defense. Faulk should be all over the place as usual so I'd start him with confidence as a flex play in PPR leagues.

WR - Moss/Welker - Again, I don't like the matchup for the Patriots' passing game but Moss is back to being Moss so you start him. Welker is obviously a Must Start in PPR leagues and he's getting so much action he's pretty darn good in standard leagues too even though he isn't scoring (NOTE: I like Jabar Gaffney as a spot starter but not this week).

TE - Watson - You can't trust this guy so I wouldn't bother with him.

Excellent analysis My thoughts on the Pats:

It's hard to base an opinion on only 2 games, but I watched the past 2 Pats games and Cassel has been unstoppable. The Pats OL has blocked well, giving him good protection, and he keeps finding the open guy even when blitzed. The INT last week was a bobbled ball by Moss and not Cassel's fault. I'm going out on a limb and say not only do the Pats win but they put up 30+ pts on the Steelers (and I'm not a Pats fan). Most people think Cassel comes back to earth in this game. I don't think so. I see the Pats carving up the Steelers D.

 

[pats3in4]

Since the start of the Roethlisberger era, this is probably the best Steelers D the Pats have faced. Last year the Pats beat the Steelers without their starting safeties, but that won't be the case. Factor in an improved James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and Cassel is facing a D unlike any he's faced this year.

On the other side, this Steelers offense is probably the worst the Pats have faced. The OL is not as good as it has been in the past. The running game is effective at times, but isn't a reliable weapon that the defense must focus on first and foremost. Ward/Holmes isn't as deadly as past combos like Ward/Plax.

I like the matchup of the Pats' DL vs. the Steelers' OL. NT Wilfork was a monster against Miami, destroying the 'Wildcat' blocking scheme pretty much single-handedly. DE Seymour has looked like his circa 2003/2004 dominant self on the bull-rush. I think the Pats can collapse the pocket with a four-man rush against this OL enough times to kill drives and allow the Pats to pull out a squeaker.

 

[The Ref]

I had my choice of tickets this year, and I passed on both the Jets of Thur night as well as the San Diego game (told I was nuts) on Sunday night in order to go to this game. I'm looking forward to this game and I think it's gong to be a bell weather game for both teams.

 

[Workhorse]

I'm very curious to see how the Steelers defense lines up on Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Over the past few weeks, it's really been "pick your poison". Last week, the Dolphins decided to got man-to-man on Moss with no safety help over the top and Randy tortured them all game long. If you give help on Moss, it typically opens up the field for Welker in the soft zones. You man up Welker and take your chances there? The Pats will go to Faulk/Watson in open space. The fact that the Pats are running that short passing game to perfection right now somewhat mitigates a good pass rush.

I'm expecting a shootout.

 

[harryhood]

I'm very curious to see how the Steelers defense lines up on Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Over the past few weeks, it's really been "pick your poison". Last week, the Dolphins decided to got man-to-man on Moss with no safety help over the top and Randy tortured them all game long. If you give help on Moss, it typically opens up the field for Welker in the soft zones. You man up Welker and take your chances there? The Pats will go to Faulk/Watson in open space. The fact that the Pats are running that short passing game to perfection right now somewhat mitigates a good pass rush.I'm expecting a shootout.

That's a good point and I think the "high school" QB is learning that it doesnt have to be flashy...if you throw the ball to the open man, you can move it on anyone at any time. Anytime the Pats needed to score the past couple weeks they have been able to. I also didnt like what I saw from Pittsburgh at home against Cincy, there was a lot of opportunity there.I think BB is back to the game plan that made young Brady successful. High percentage throws utilizing every player and expecting good YAC. It's working too.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Since the start of the Roethlisberger era, this is probably the best Steelers D the Pats have faced. Last year the Pats beat the Steelers without their starting safeties, but that won't be the case. Factor in an improved James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and Cassel is facing a D unlike any he's faced this year.

On the other side, this Steelers offense is probably the worst the Pats have faced. The OL is not as good as it has been in the past. The running game is effective at times, but isn't a reliable weapon that the defense must focus on first and foremost. Ward/Holmes isn't as deadly as past combos like Ward/Plax.

I like the matchup of the Pats' DL vs. the Steelers' OL. NT Wilfork was a monster against Miami, destroying the 'Wildcat' blocking scheme pretty much single-handedly. DE Seymour has looked like his circa 2003/2004 dominant self on the bull-rush. I think the Pats can collapse the pocket with a four three-man rush against this OL enough times to kill drives and allow the Pats to pull out a squeaker.

Fixed one part, otherwise

 

[Cool in the pocket]

I don't know why anyone would bet against Belichick. He just works miracles. Latest example is Cassel. We can probably put the whole "Belichick can't win without Brady" thing to rest after this year.

I think McDaniels has a ton to do with this--getting Cassel comfortable and building his confidence.

 

[Bossman]

...been folowing the Pats all year.

My take on the team

Offense:

a.) They use the short pass to set up the run.

b.) I can't recall a completed long pass all season (other than y.a.c.)

Defense:

a.) They shut down the run

b.) They can not stop the pass ... long or short ... especially when the game is on the line.

If the Steelers "are who we thought they were", they should be able to

a.) stop NE's short pass, elimintaing the run ... and any NE offense.

b.) move the ball through the air just as every other team has done to the Pats this season (STL, MIA, NYJ etc)

and how will things play out?

Cassel will struggle to find open recievers underneath and will toss a pick or two in desperation trying to go deep.

Pats will take away the run and Roeth's 1st and 2nd WR options ... but options 3,4 and 5 will be found early and often.

PIT - 38

NE - 20

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Interesting view in the Boston Herald today.

Steelers defense presents problems for Patriots

Tough nut to crack

Scanning the list of the Steelers’ defensive rankings resembles binary code, minus the zeros.

Ones stretch practically clear across the page: Passing defense. Rushing defense. Scoring. Yards per play. Yards per game. Yards on first down. Red zone efficiency. Sacks (in the AFC, at least).

With all due respect to the 10-1 Titans, the Steelers own the best defense in the league, and they’ll bring it to Foxboro on Sunday.

“Nobody has gotten 300 yards against them and about half of their possessions are three-and-out,” said Patriots [team stats] coach Bill Belichick. “They’re really solid across the board. It’s no one-man band. They’re good at everything.”

The Pats are coming off back-to-back games with over 500 yards of offense, a first in franchise history. Quarterback Matt Cassel became just the fifth QB ever to reach 400 yards passing in consecutive games. The Pats are chucking the ball all over the field.

If they expect to come out and do the same against the Steelers, they’ve got another thing coming. Just ask Texans offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. His team lost to the Steelers, 38-17, in a game that wasn’t even remotely that close. Pittsburgh led 21-0 early in the second quarter on the strength of two interceptions.

Forced to be one-dimensional and throw, the Texans took their medicine. Matt Schaub was sacked five times, and they didn’t score a touchdown until it was 35-3 in the fourth.

Shanahan saw the Pats spread the field the last two weeks, but he’s not sure that approach will work.

“It would be interesting to see if they could do it,” he said yesterday from his office. “I’d like to watch. It’s certainly a hard way to beat Pittsburgh.”

The problem comes to one word: pressure.

“Eventually they’ll end up getting you with their pressure packages,” Shanahan said. “And their coverage is so good. When you play a heavy blitz team, usually their coverage is weaker, but Pittsburgh is the exception. They’re a blitzing team that can cover.”

When the Steelers blitz, they bring outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who have combined for 22.5 sacks, the most of any tandem in the league. With these two, it’s not even about the element of surprise.

“It’s not like they change their blitzes every week,” said Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. “They run a lot of the same blitzes over and over. Even if you have a guy assigned to block, you still have to stand in there and block who’s coming. They’re not going to stop. They run through you. They run around you. They get a number of sacks when you actually have enough people to block them but you just can’t block them long enough.”

Part of the problem of accounting for those outside guys is what it means to the middle of the offensive line, particularly the center.

“If you want to fan your guard and tackles out to protect against them coming off the edge, you’re going to leave your center on an island with Casey Hampton, who’s such a big nose guard,” Shanahan said. “There are only so many ways to block the 3-4, and they’re great at recognizing your protections and adjusting off of that. They’re going to watch the center. If he’s turning, they’re going to get the big guys on his back. If you’re fanning out the tackles, they’re going to cross-dog blitz up the middle.”

In Shanahan’s mind, the only way to attack the Steelers is with a balance between run and pass, because if the Steelers can eliminate the former, it’s going to be a long day.

“If it’s third down and you can’t run, they’ll have guys running all over and it’s hard to see what’s coming,” he said. “Next thing you know, someone’s coming free unblocked and killing the quarterback from the back side.”

There’s no question the Patriots have their work cut out for them, because the next offense to move the ball against the Steelers will be the first.

“They kicked our (butt), straight up,” Shanahan said. “They whupped us.”

Article URL: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/footbal...ticleid=1134992

 

[simey]

 

[Kyzersosik]

nice to see M Light will be playing, Pats 24 -Steelers 21.

 

[drew726]

Pittsburgh can stop the pass, unlike Miami.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

...been folowing the Pats all year.My take on the teamOffense:a.) They use the short pass to set up the run.b.) I can't recall a completed long pass all season (other than y.a.c.)Defense:a.) They shut down the runb.) They can not stop the pass ... long or short ... especially when the game is on the line.If the Steelers "are who we thought they were", they should be able to a.) stop NE's short pass, elimintaing the run ... and any NE offense.b.) move the ball through the air just as every other team has done to the Pats this season (STL, MIA, NYJ etc)and how will things play out?Cassel will struggle to find open recievers underneath and will toss a pick or two in desperation trying to go deep.Pats will take away the run and Roeth's 1st and 2nd WR options ... but options 3,4 and 5 will be found early and often. PIT - 38NE - 20

Counter-argument: the purpose of the short pass is to overcome excessive blitzing. even though I agree the safety play is better with Smith on the bench, I don't expect Wes Welker to be completely shut down. Should be a good game at tight end and for Kevin Faulk as well.