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Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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I'm probably not as high as others on Smith this year. I'm counting on Newton regressing a bit, and the emergence of Lafell and Gettis coming back will eat into his targets.

70/1089/6

 
I think Smith is an incredible talent. With that said I don't think that he can keep this up for another two years. He was motivated last year by the addition of Cam. But I do think he regresses a considerable amount this year due to Cam most likely regression back to earth. I traded Smith for Collie in my dynasty league

 
Steve Smith is tough to predict. If you look at his career production, it is all over the map. For many of those years, he had substandard QBs. One would assume that CAM will be as good or better in his second year although that assumption doesn't always prove true--some second year QBs DO regress. My biggest concern is Smith's durability, given his diminutive size, aggressive style of play, and age. He is 33. I just don't see how you can count on him repeating last year at this point. I will go with his 2009 production as a base line.

65/982/6

 
I expect Newton to regress some this year.

I expect LaFell to improve as the #2 WR.

I expect Olsen to have a better year at TE.

But I still expect Steve Smith to be solid.

130 targets, 80 receptions, 1200(ish) yards, 7 TDs.

Those numbers would have made Smith the WR11 last year, and I think they will make him a (low-end) WR1 this year, as well.

 
Smith and Newton gave us a "taste" of what they can do last year and that was with very little time in camp, etc...

I would think Smith continues to wreck havoc on defenses, and he could have an uptick in production.

I have him projected for 88/1388/8-10Tds

 
Why all this Cam Newton regressing talk? He was the first rookie QB to throw for 4K. Now he has a offseason. He's already said how many missed reads he had and how much he has improved. I expect him to improve passing, and Smith will be benefit. Smith still has plenty of spring, and he scared the #### out of opposing teams.

 
I am expecting Cam Newton to score fewer fantasy points primarily because he will have more of a handle on the offense and will be better prepared to progress through his reads. I also think that he will run for way fewer TDs. However, I expect him to again pass for close to 4,000 yards and a few more than the 21 TDs of his rookie season.

Stevw Smith was far away the leading receiving option with 129 targets, 79 catches, and 7 TDs. Improvements by LaFell, Olsen, and Gettis should assist Smith as he gets a little less attention.

Steve Smith 130 targets 82 catches 1,230 yds 15.0 ypc and 7 TDs

 
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Steve Smith is an absolute stud.

He can destroy a defense.

His production has been unstable and it can be blamed on, injuries, suspensions for bad behavior, but mostly due to poor QB play in the past.

Last year when Cam exploded onto the scene Steve Smith was thee guy but the opposition wised up and started to double and triple cover him.

The Cats need someone to draw some of that coverage away from him.

Cam's production tailed off when defenses took SS out of the equation.

I've got no doubts over Steve's abilities, he's an absolute stud but his production is dependant upon other factors so its really difficult to peg Smith's numbers. I would imagine he will explode and have at least three huge games during the season but I couldn't begin to guess when those games will be.

I've got him and will plug him into my lineup because I know he's going to push me over the top on at least three games during my regular fantasy season and at least one fantasy playoff game. He will have a few stinker games as well and might even cost me one game but overall he's one of my starting wideouts and I expect some huge games from him this year.

 
'Chase Stuart said:
Steve Smith, I can't (ever) quit you.
I've been a huge Smiff proponent since I started playing FF in 2003, but last year was the first year he was completely off my radar. :bag: He's back on it, but he's got some pretty stiff competition. At his ADP of 43 (WR16) I imagine he'll outperform that, but I really like Percy at 42 (WR15) and Miles Austin at 45 (WR18). I certainly won't be able to justify taking him over Julio Jones (ADP38, WR13) who appears ready to become the WR1 in ATL (better catch %, ypr, and TD/rec than White). I've already drafted him over Austin and Harvin in one league, but I kind of had buyer's remorse about passing over Harvin. In the end, I think all 3 will do well, possibly leapfrogging higher drafted guys like Welker, White, Jennings or Nelson...
 
'Sunday Devil said:
I think Smith is an incredible talent. With that said I don't think that he can keep this up for another two years. He was motivated last year by the addition of Cam. But I do think he regresses a considerable amount this year due to Cam most likely regression back to earth. I traded Smith for Collie in my dynasty league
Austin Collie? Seriously? I think this year will be even better for Steve Smith. Newton with another year under his belt and a full offseason. Developing #2s in LaFell/Gettis. Olsen at TE. Etc.86/1400/9
 
'Sunday Devil said:
I think Smith is an incredible talent. With that said I don't think that he can keep this up for another two years. He was motivated last year by the addition of Cam. But I do think he regresses a considerable amount this year due to Cam most likely regression back to earth. I traded Smith for Collie in my dynasty league
Austin Collie? Seriously? I think this year will be even better for Steve Smith. Newton with another year under his belt and a full offseason. Developing #2s in LaFell/Gettis. Olsen at TE. Etc.86/1400/9
you sound like a Steve Smith owner. I hope it turns out well for you. I know I coulda got a little more for Smith, but I wanted Collie. Its a high risk I am willing to live with, Smith was my WR3 and I wanted to have a young stable of WR. Ntooontheless, I feel good about Collie, not too good about not getting at least a 3rd round pick included
 
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