Still reason for concern with Peyton Manning? (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Peyton Manning looked impressive in OTAs yesterday. Hopefully, that jump starts a Comeback Player of the Year season.

But there may still be reason for concern.

 

[mjr]

There will always be concerns when you're talking about any football player with as much time in the league as Manning. My main focus on him is a full recovery rather than these types of further down the line issues, and with all accounts of recovery being positive, Im feeling pretty good about having him in my lineup in one of my dynasties while Im looking for a long term replacement.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

thank you dr. jene. I am bearish on Peyton this season but not for any fancy smancy scientific reason. He's in the "Joe Namath on the L.A. Rams" phase of his career and that never ends well. Oh sure, there will be moments that make everyone believe he's old Peyton. But this was a player who was in decline BEFORE he took a year off of football and got 3 neck surgeries. Look at Peyton's stats the year before last, the Colts ran alot and he was not putting up 4x MVP type numbers.

 

[TS Garp]

thank you dr. jene. I am bearish on Peyton this season but not for any fancy smancy scientific reason. He's in the "Joe Namath on the L.A. Rams" phase of his career and that never ends well. Oh sure, there will be moments that make everyone believe he's old Peyton. But this was a player who was in decline BEFORE he took a year off of football and got 3 neck surgeries. Look at Peyton's stats the year before last, the Colts ran alot and he was not putting up 4x MVP type numbers.

His int's were increasing but he threw for 4,700 yards and 33 td's in 2010. That's still pretty elite.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

He's healed, so I don't see him as an injury risk. He's not 50 years old either. IMO, he has a much better surrounding cast in Denver and I don't expect a lengthy transition period. I ran through about 10 mocks over at Fantasy Football Calculator and I've been able to grab him in the 5th round in every mock. We'll see if his ADP sticks, but that's a tremendous amount of upside for a 5th/6th round pick.

 

[DoubleG]

thank you dr. jene. I am bearish on Peyton this season but not for any fancy smancy scientific reason. He's in the "Joe Namath on the L.A. Rams" phase of his career and that never ends well. Oh sure, there will be moments that make everyone believe he's old Peyton. But this was a player who was in decline BEFORE he took a year off of football and got 3 neck surgeries. Look at Peyton's stats the year before last, the Colts ran alot and he was not putting up 4x MVP type numbers.

His int's were increasing but he threw for 4,700 yards and 33 td's in 2010. That's still pretty elite.

The concern is that he had to log a record number of attempts to do it. His QB rating that season was lower than guys like Schaub, Flacco and Freeman (just to name a few). While the 4700+ and 33 TDs is nice, I don't think the Broncos are going throw the ball 675+ times this season. If you "normalize" the incredibly high attempt numbers to 525, the other stats would read about 3600 yards and 26 TDs - or about what Marck Sanchez and Fitzpatrick did last season. Those numbers are decent, but hardly elite.And all of that is presuming he has no ill effects from a year off, or being a good 18+ months since last playing in a meaningful NFL game.Buyer beware.

 

[Neofight]

thank you dr. jene. I am bearish on Peyton this season but not for any fancy smancy scientific reason. He's in the "Joe Namath on the L.A. Rams" phase of his career and that never ends well. Oh sure, there will be moments that make everyone believe he's old Peyton. But this was a player who was in decline BEFORE he took a year off of football and got 3 neck surgeries. Look at Peyton's stats the year before last, the Colts ran alot and he was not putting up 4x MVP type numbers.

His int's were increasing but he threw for 4,700 yards and 33 td's in 2010. That's still pretty elite.

The concern is that he had to log a record number of attempts to do it. His QB rating that season was lower than guys like Schaub, Flacco and Freeman (just to name a few). While the 4700+ and 33 TDs is nice, I don't think the Broncos are going throw the ball 675+ times this season. If you "normalize" the incredibly high attempt numbers to 525, the other stats would read about 3600 yards and 26 TDs - or about what Marck Sanchez and Fitzpatrick did last season. Those numbers are decent, but hardly elite.And all of that is presuming he has no ill effects from a year off, or being a good 18+ months since last playing in a meaningful NFL game.Buyer beware.

Perhaps the most telling stat of Manning's 2010 season was his Y/A. At 6.9 it was the lowest since his rookie season, which was the only other year he was below 7.0. Perhaps the surgeries fixed what was leading to the decline of 2010, but it seems a bit optimistic to expect a return to the numbers (or form) of prior years.

 

[DeaLerZ]

all you guys are over analyzing the numbers on Peyton in 2010.. i watched almost every game that year... they had to pass the ball more because they had no running game what so ever.. and the defenses didn't respect the run... therefore the coverage that Peyton was getting was much more heavily weighted towards the pass... I don't think he was declining that much at all.... i think that the fact that he threw the ball that much shows that he was the only thing on offense that the coach trusted that year...

i mean look at the Colts last year.. they had zero offense without him... Peyton has at least 1-2 great years left in him as long as he stays healthy... with the work ethic this guy has... and one of the most elite quarterbacks of our time... don't underestimate the greatest QB we will probably ever see in our life time

 

[msommer]

One would have to assume that some of 2010 Peyton played with the injury and this would have influenced the ypa. IIRC everyone knew Peyton would have to do something in the off season with the neck.

 

[az_prof]

thank you dr. jene. I am bearish on Peyton this season but not for any fancy smancy scientific reason. He's in the "Joe Namath on the L.A. Rams" phase of his career and that never ends well. Oh sure, there will be moments that make everyone believe he's old Peyton. But this was a player who was in decline BEFORE he took a year off of football and got 3 neck surgeries. Look at Peyton's stats the year before last, the Colts ran alot and he was not putting up 4x MVP type numbers.

His int's were increasing but he threw for 4,700 yards and 33 td's in 2010. That's still pretty elite.

The concern is that he had to log a record number of attempts to do it. His QB rating that season was lower than guys like Schaub, Flacco and Freeman (just to name a few). While the 4700+ and 33 TDs is nice, I don't think the Broncos are going throw the ball 675+ times this season. If you "normalize" the incredibly high attempt numbers to 525, the other stats would read about 3600 yards and 26 TDs - or about what Marck Sanchez and Fitzpatrick did last season. Those numbers are decent, but hardly elite.And all of that is presuming he has no ill effects from a year off, or being a good 18+ months since last playing in a meaningful NFL game.Buyer beware.

I agree. I want no part of him. People still see in their head the old Manning. Let's not forget he has to learn a new offensive system for the first time in how long? Also, the old man there at HC, Fox, loves to run. He is a pound and ground guy if I ever saw one. There is no way he will let Manning sling the ball around all game.

 

[Statcruncher]

thank you dr. jene. I am bearish on Peyton this season but not for any fancy smancy scientific reason. He's in the "Joe Namath on the L.A. Rams" phase of his career and that never ends well. Oh sure, there will be moments that make everyone believe he's old Peyton. But this was a player who was in decline BEFORE he took a year off of football and got 3 neck surgeries. Look at Peyton's stats the year before last, the Colts ran alot and he was not putting up 4x MVP type numbers.

His int's were increasing but he threw for 4,700 yards and 33 td's in 2010. That's still pretty elite.

He had to lead the league in passing attempts and completions to do it. Other than his rookie year he posted his lowest yards gained per pass attempt in his career. He posted his lowest yards gained per completion in his career. He posted his lowest QB rating since 2002. He had zero 4th quarter comebacks and posted only 2 game winning drives.I'm no expert, but to me it seems his numbers were a product of volume instead of quality. Add in that he's 36, with a new team, lost a complete year of competition, and had a major surgery and I can't see Peyton as anything other than a gamble. I'm guessing his elite days are gone.

 

[HE DID WHAT!?]

This whole situation reminds me a little of Montana in KC. His per game stats were down slightly from what they were in SanFran. I expect the same from Manning, down somewhat from Indy.

 

[Matt Waldman]

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

This whole situation reminds me a little of Montana in KC. His per game stats were down slightly from what they were in SanFran. I expect the same from Manning, down somewhat from Indy.

Good point, Montana played for Schottenheimer (uber-conservative) and Manning will be playing for Fox (run run run).

 

[Jene Bramel]

One would have to assume that some of 2010 Peyton played with the injury and this would have influenced the ypa. IIRC everyone knew Peyton would have to do something in the off season with the neck.

I'd have to go back and check the exact timeline, but this is definitely not a new injury and last year's group of surgeries were not the first he's had to relieve symptoms.If I'm remembering correctly, many feel a hit he took in 2006 started the cascade that led to the herniated disc and subsequent weakness and pain in his neck and upper arm. I believe he had a microdiscectomy and bone spur debridement to remove tissue that was causing much of the inflammation and pressure around his nerve before the 2010 season and recovered well enough to play that year before the string of surgeries between the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This whole situation reminds me a little of Montana in KC. His per game stats were down slightly from what they were in SanFran. I expect the same from Manning, down somewhat from Indy.

Yes, but Manning has a much bigger gun than Montana ever had. Go watch some of those KC games in year 2 with Montana...he couldn't throw the ball 20 yards down the field...the playoff game with Miami was just brutal to watch when he dropped back.

 

[Bri]

interesting

 

[purestrength]

Some of these are classic.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

thank you dr. jene. I am bearish on Peyton this season but not for any fancy smancy scientific reason. He's in the "Joe Namath on the L.A. Rams" phase of his career and that never ends well. Oh sure, there will be moments that make everyone believe he's old Peyton. But this was a player who was in decline BEFORE he took a year off of football and got 3 neck surgeries. Look at Peyton's stats the year before last, the Colts ran alot and he was not putting up 4x MVP type numbers.

His int's were increasing but he threw for 4,700 yards and 33 td's in 2010. That's still pretty elite.

The concern is that he had to log a record number of attempts to do it. His QB rating that season was lower than guys like Schaub, Flacco and Freeman (just to name a few). While the 4700+ and 33 TDs is nice, I don't think the Broncos are going throw the ball 675+ times this season. If you "normalize" the incredibly high attempt numbers to 525, the other stats would read about 3600 yards and 26 TDs - or about what Marck Sanchez and Fitzpatrick did last season. Those numbers are decent, but hardly elite.And all of that is presuming he has no ill effects from a year off, or being a good 18+ months since last playing in a meaningful NFL game.

Buyer beware.

I agree. I want no part of him. People still see in their head the old Manning. Let's not forget he has to learn a new offensive system for the first time in how long? Also, the old man there at HC, Fox, loves to run. He is a pound and ground guy if I ever saw one. There is no way he will let Manning sling the ball around all game.

 

[Bri]

Some of these are classic.

yeah and most are forum regulars that can take a little heckling in good fun. We've all been there...

 

[Statcruncher]

I was completely off-base writing Manning off. What an incredible year.