Stock Market under Trump (2 Viewers)

[siffoin]

Cute graph.  Misleading and wrong, but cute.

Also of interest from that same twitter thread - "S&P 500 earnings are up 30% same time frame (26.96 per share to 35.02 per share)".  I haven't vetted that claim, but if even close that's not bad at all.  Eventually the markets will reflect that if those earnings hold up for a while.

There is nothing misleading about a price chart?  And a 17 month time frame isn't insignificant.  For instance there were 17 months between November 2007 and March 2009.  Don't you think that 17 months was significant?

If you are saying it's cherry picking from a high to where we are now ---I can accept that.  But in the same token you are cherry picking your "SP500 earning are up 30% same time frame"  Because it isn't the same time frame.  $26.96 was from Dec 2017 earnings - and that $26.96 number just happens to be the lowest SP quarterly earnings since December 2016.  Meaning you cherry picked an artificial low.  If the time frame is Feb 2018-Present - couldn't we also pick SP500 earning from March 2018 (which SP500 earnings were $33.02) and then compare that growth (6% earnings growth not 30%) to now? 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Cute graph.  Misleading and wrong, but cute.

Also of interest from that same twitter thread - "S&P 500 earnings are up 30% same time frame (26.96 per share to 35.02 per share)".  I haven't vetted that claim, but if even close that's not bad at all.  Eventually the markets will reflect that if those earnings hold up for a while.

How do you feel about a President who believes negative interest rates are in our best interest?

 

[Sabertooth]

The assertion was made above that the S&P has gone nowhere in the last 17 months.  That was a false statement - we've gained right about 4% since then.  Damn twitter hacks using purposefully misleading data piss me off - that crap gets parroted around as it looks good and reasonable.

Now who is using fancy stats?   It is lower right now today than it was one year ago.  

 

[Sabertooth]

How do you feel about a President who believes negative interest rates are in our best interest?

And also believe he's the Messiah in the flesh too.  Also has bungalows.  

 

[Sand]

Look at that open

uh oh

How many times did the yield curve invert in those years? How was copper doing? How many farms were going bankrupt? How many people were 90 days late on a car payment?

Interesting points - let's look at those:

- As noted the yield curve is inverted.  It has done so in a different way (long side going down rather than the other way around).  No idea if this changes the "ZOMG a recession is coming" indicator, but it's worth noting.  It's also worth noting that the corporate bond market is not freaking out.  

- Copper - I don't keep up much with commodities.  How is copper doing in a USD adjusted terms?  The USD has spiked lately and, like oil, will drive prices.

- Farms - definitely an issue.

- Fake news.  The rate of delinquencies is doing ok.  And the overall debt load of Americans is in a good spot, comparatively.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

And also believe he's the Messiah in the flesh too.  Also has bungalows.  

You can't prove that he's not.

 

[Henry Ford]

Interesting points - let's look at those:

- As noted the yield curve is inverted.  It has done so in a different way (long side going down rather than the other way around).  No idea if this changes the "ZOMG a recession is coming" indicator, but it's worth noting.  It's also worth noting that the corporate bond market is not freaking out.  

- Copper - I don't keep up much with commodities.  How is copper doing in a USD adjusted terms?  The USD has spiked lately and, like oil, will drive prices.

- Farms - definitely an issue.

- Fake news.  The rate of delinquencies is doing ok.  And the overall debt load of Americans is in a good spot, comparatively.

From the perspective of auto loan companies? Okay.  That's not the only perspective.  Read that article.  It's not fake news, it's still seven million people who are 90 days delinquent.  The comparison it makes is to the peak of auto loan foreclosures in 2010.  Yeah, percentage-wise it's lower than that.  That is not a benchmark of "doing ok" in the economy.  It's the same rate, roughly (we're actually a little over 4.6% right now) that it was in September, 2009.  Two quarters before that 5% mark hit the first time in March, 2010.  The real arguments it makes are about what that means for the people who have those loans.  That's an ancillary issue.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_auto_loans_delinquent_by_90_days

 

[The Commish]

Talking points?  I have no idea what you are talking about but I am sure you think you are being clever.  Yes, the S&P 500 is the metric one should reference when talking about the stock market.

Yes...talking points...like this one in bold.....for a specific subset of investors.  There are literally dozens of indicators depending on what your stake in the economy is and why one has a stake in the stock markets at all.  You're supposedly an investment manager sort of person, you should know exactly what I am saying.

 

[Don't Noonan]

Yes...talking points...like this one in bold.....for a specific subset of investors.  There are literally dozens of indicators depending on what your stake in the economy is and why one has a stake in the stock markets at all.  You're supposedly an investment manager sort of person, you should know exactly what I am saying.

I think we are in agreement here that the economy and stock market are two different things.  I was simply stating that the S&P 500 is the best index to look at when talking about the U.S. market.

 

[yak651]

The assertion was made above that the S&P has gone nowhere in the last 17 months.  That was a false statement - we've gained right about 4% since then.  Damn twitter hacks using purposefully misleading data piss me off - that crap gets parroted around as it looks good and reasonable.

Who would be the most powerful hack to do this??

 

[Sand]

Who would be the most powerful hack to do this??

The Fed.

 

[The General]

Maybe Trump and the Republicans can ready another tax giveaway

 

[yak651]

The Fed.

Link to Fed twitter comments?

 

[Sand]

Link to Fed twitter comments?

You asked a hypothetical.  

 

[yak651]

You asked a hypothetical.  

No I asked who is the most powerful Twitter user that uses misleading data

 

[Sand]

No I asked who is the most powerful Twitter user that uses misleading data

See:

Who would be ...

 

[Bob Sacamano]

How do you feel about a President who believes negative interest rates are in our best interest?

 

[tonydead]

The assertion was made above that the S&P has gone nowhere in the last 17 months.  That was a false statement - we've gained right about 4% since then.  Damn twitter hacks using purposefully misleading data piss me off - that crap gets parroted around as it looks good and reasonable.

Well, up 40% since election day doesn't sound quite as good as picking a previous all time high, so.  lol

 

[Henry Ford]

The assertion was made above that the S&P has gone nowhere in the last 17 months.  That was a false statement - we've gained right about 4% since then.  Damn twitter hacks using purposefully misleading data piss me off - that crap gets parroted around as it looks good and reasonable.

Was it an old article? We’ve gone nowhere since January 2018.  If that article was two months old, it wasn’t talking about that March drop number from 2018. 

 

[Sand]

Was it an old article? We’ve gone nowhere since January 2018.  If that article was two months old, it wasn’t talking about that March drop number from 2018. 

https://twitter.com/eddyelfenbein/status/1166441490651996161?s=21

17 months and the market is flat.

The point was that this particular poster (the twitter guy) used non-adjusted data.  He ignored dividend returns (which tend to be a substantial return component of the markets).  

If you're in and out of something in a couple days, sure, ignore dividends.  If you hold it's a very real return.

 

[siffoin]

The point was that this particular poster (the twitter guy) used non-adjusted data.  He ignored dividend returns (which tend to be a substantial return component of the markets).  

If you're in and out of something in a couple days, sure, ignore dividends.  If you hold it's a very real return.

In general people use a price chart of the $SP500 as a pulse of the market.  I haven't come across a person whose entire portfolio is 100% invested in the $SP500 (though personally, I don't think it is a terrible idea).  Again the point of a simple price chart over a given period of time is to represent the overall pulse of the market, nothing more nothing less. 

For people with a diversified portfolio - they've actually done worse over that time span than the $SP500 - including dividends.  Without dividends the return over that time period is basically flat.

Here's a link comparing 3 portfolios to the $SP500 from Feb 2018-July 2019. 1st is Bogleheads Core 3; 2nd is your favorite Coffeehouse Portfolio and 3rd is the Vanguard 2040 TargetFund.

It is what it is

I'm not sure why you guys are all up in arms over it either.  Who the #### cares who is President in regards to portfolio returns?   I just want to make money.  Doing so requires attention- especially in times like these.  Like I said in a previous post - 17 months time span for the market is significant.  Nov 2007-March 2009 was 17 months too.  Those 17 months were significant.  Time frame is critical in your decision making process for sure.  But 17 months isn't day trading on a minute chart.  We have significant data that impacts much longer time frames.  In this case these past 17 months are telling a story - I think it's important to pay attention to the storied details.

 

[Sand]

I'm not sure why you guys are all up in arms over it either.  

Eh - it just pressed one of my buttons.  If you are claiming that the the markets went nowhere then be accurate in that.  Though, certainly, a 4% return in 17 months ain't the best market performance.

 

[Da Guru]

The stock market is a ride..sometimes a roller coaster ride.  This thread judges daily and that is the worst thing to do. 

Good news? Don`t get too high and few days of bad news is no reason to panic. While it can be unsettling to see drastic drops after the markets trended upward for so long, seasoned investors think down markets are a good buying opportunity

When stock prices go down, investors are effectively getting the “sale” price which in turn makes compounding returns even more powerful over the ensuing years.  If you have a financial plan, try to stick to it. No matter what the market is doing.  Think long term, not day to day. Market timing is incredibly challenging as the best and worst days often happen close to one another.

 

[The Commish]

Who the #### cares who is President in regards to portfolio returns?

Best I can tell is this is one of the few areas left that Trump has left that he thinks he can run on.  Clearly there are people that believe an individual human being can be given credit for how the stock market is performing and how the economy is flowing.  Personally, I think that's absurd, but some insist on it.  In short, it's the only political football he has left and it's not going all that well and looks to get worse before it gets better.

 

[NREC34]

Did we get good news overnight?

I’m out of the loop today. 

 

[identikit]

Did we get good news overnight?

I’m out of the loop today. 

The market is up is this morning's news.

You can come out of the bunker to feel sunshine on your face.

 

[Sand]

Did we get good news overnight?

I’m out of the loop today. 

Unemployment numbers were good.  China bent a bit on trade.  The cynic in me says they did this to roll out a bit of line for when they go crack heads in Hong Kong.

 

[jamny]

 China bent a bit on trade.  The cynic in me says they did this to roll out a bit of line for when they go crack heads in Hong Kong.

Exactly what I was thinking. They banned this weekend's protest, so that should go well.

I haven't checked volume but I assume it will be low today and tomorrow heading into the holiday. 

 

[Sand]

How do you feel about a President who believes negative interest rates are in our best interest?

As my best bud Charles would say - Turrible.

 

[Sand]

Exactly what I was thinking. They banned this weekend's protest, so that should go well.

I haven't checked volume but I assume it will be low today and tomorrow heading into the holiday. 

There is supposed to be a general strike in HK on Monday, I think.  Tuesday should be  .

 

[Sand]

Ask me how my Apple stock is doing; you were quick to make fun about my purchases in the past.  I hang up and wait for your response .  Only up 29 percent for the year.

Bought mine at $100 - before the 7:1 split.  Those are doing just fine.  In fact, I don't want to sell due to the cap gains on them.

Still irks me I had the thought to double up when it dropped to $80 back then.  I didn't.  So dumb.
 

 

[siffoin]

Unemployment numbers were good.  China bent a bit on trade.  The cynic in me says they did this to roll out a bit of line for when they go crack heads in Hong Kong.

I was thinking Trump finally schooled the Chinese - as they've figured out you can make a fortune in the market as long as you have prior knowledge of an "official statement" about trade/tariff policy.  

 

[NREC34]

So it seems we are up on “hopes” for trade talk.

What a farce. 

If/when a deal happens there’s a high probability it will be the biggest “sell the news” event in market history. 

 

[KCitons]

It's almost like the ultra wealthy got that way by hoarding money not blowing it.

One thing I learned working for tips was that rich people are poor tippers.  That's because they keep their money. 

How many times did the yield curve invert in those years? How was copper doing? How many farms were going bankrupt? How many people were 90 days late on a car payment?

Coincidence?

 

[Don't Noonan]

We are just 3% off of the all time highs so now would be a good time to take some profits if you truly believe we are looking at a recession in the near future.  Or if you believe Trump will increase tariffs or send out a tweet over the weekend blaming China.

Personally I will stay invested as we are looking good at current valuations long term.

 

[Sand]

I was thinking Trump finally schooled the Chinese - as they've figured out you can make a fortune in the market as long as you have prior knowledge of an "official statement" about trade/tariff policy.  

There was an article from a number of years ago that talked about the best person/persons to shadow with your portfolio.  It was argued pretty convincingly that the best group was US Senators, by a pretty wide margin. 

So, yeah.

 

[GoBirds]

We are just 3% off of the all time highs so now would be a good time to take some profits if you truly believe we are looking at a recession in the near future.  Or if you believe Trump will increase tariffs or send out a tweet over the weekend blaming China.

Personally I will stay invested as we are looking good at current valuations long term.

Th bolded being reality really makes this thread priceless. Reading through here would think we are approaching Dow 10k. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

Th bolded being reality really makes this thread priceless. Reading through here would think we are approaching Dow 10k. 

The market was trending up before Trump became President and continued for a while after he took office.  It's pretty much right where it was a year and a half ago now with tons of volatility in between.  

 

[GoBirds]

The market was trending up before Trump became President and continued for a while after he took office.  It's pretty much right was it was a year and a half ago now with tons of volatility in between.  

New to the market?

Not sure what 1st bolded means but feels familiar. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

New to the market?

Not sure what 1st bolded means but feels familiar. 

I fixed it.  I meant it's right where it was a year and a half ago.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

Blinders?

More like alternate reality 

Same difference

 

[Ruffrodys05]

Humans are stupid

 

[Don't Noonan]

I fixed it.  I meant it's right where it was a year and a half ago.

S&P 500 today 8/29/19  2925

S&P 500 3/1/19 2678

In summary, up 9.22% over 18 months but when including dividends up 12.22%.  Roughly 8.15% annually so close to in line with historical average.

 

[Hawkeye21]

S&P 500 today 8/29/19  2925

S&P 500 3/1/19 2678

In summary, up 9.22% over 18 months but when including dividends up 12.22%.  Roughly 8.15% annually so close to in line with historical average.

I was looking at the DOW.  I didn't look at the S&P but that is good.

 

[msommer]

He seems to love them. he's trying to do them with many different countries. 

Your bias is showing with this absurd defense you've thrown out there on Hillary's behalf. 

I think he likes bilateral agreements only because the US is a much bigger powerhouse in comparison when dealing with single countries as opposed to blocs (e.g. EU, Pacific Rim)

 

[The Commish]

I think he likes bilateral agreements only because the US is a much bigger powerhouse in comparison when dealing with single countries as opposed to blocs (e.g. EU, Pacific Rim)

I think he likes them too, but for different reasons.  I think he gets lost if more than one or two variables are present.  Need to be straightforward and simple so he can get it.  That's a trait I tend to find in those who aren't the best negotiators.  Anytime I am working a project and I hear people starting to do that, it sends up a red flag that they aren't capable of the complexity.

 

[msommer]

I think he likes them too, but for different reasons.  I think he gets lost if more than one or two variables are present.  Need to be straightforward and simple so he can get it.  That's a trait I tend to find in those who aren't the best negotiators.  Anytime I am working a project and I hear people starting to do that, it sends up a red flag that they aren't capable of the complexity.

His track record on deals is atrocious, that much is true

 

[Sabertooth]

Coincidence?

Of course not.  But that's why the way they sold the tax cuts was so disingenuous.  Of course the billionaires are going to just stick in their accounts forever.  

 

[Sand]

The market was trending up before Trump became President and continued for a while after he took office.  It's pretty much right where it was a year and a half ago now with tons of volatility in between.  

Cue 4/10 to 10/11.  Or 7/15-6/16.

 

[jamny]

Kind of expected a bit of a selloff today heading into the long weekend and the Hong Kong protests looming.