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Stock Market under Trump (2 Viewers)

siffoin said:
I post charts of the market trend almost every single month and have done so for many many months/years - saying repeatedly "bullish"...as recently as June 4th.  In fact after the December downturn - I said , "Bullish".  I even gave buy/support levels of $SPY @ 240ish on Dec 20, 2018.  Most recent after the May swoon - "Bullish".  I said the same in the stock thread here as well.  Can you link any Trump leaning FBG who has done the same?  Talk is cheap.

My views on the stock market and Trump are both reasoned and rational.
 
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:wub:

 
Gopher State said:
Stock futures predicting a truce with China, might be some serious coin to be made on Monday!
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And not a single Trump supporter here had the balls to take Sheriff Bart up on his offer - for the kids even...and with your 401k's at all time highs. Harrumph! 

 
Sand said:
:shrug:

I like SB, but the bet is a bit tilted.
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The Commish said:
Seemed like a bet that matched the bluster about a deal getting done quite well. :shrug:
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Right.  The talking point has always been "in a couple of weeks" a new deal would be done. That turned into something would get accomplished at the G20.  IMHO nothing gets done while Trump is in office. That includes if he gets 4 more years. China is like a fight with your wife who knows worse case scenario she gets half your stuff. 

 
Sheriff Bart said:
Right.  The talking point has always been "in a couple of weeks" a new deal would be done. That turned into something would get accomplished at the G20.  IMHO nothing gets done while Trump is in office. That includes if he gets 4 more years. China is like a fight with your wife who knows worse case scenario she gets half your stuff. 
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Anything meaningful,  i agree

I have a feeling it will just be a return to what it was minus good relationships between the farmers and China and a grown trade deficit. 

It will either be that or a "deal" that is virtually unverifiable in any meaningful way. 

Those are my guesses. 

 
The Commish said:
Sheriff Bart said:
 

Right.  The talking point has always been "in a couple of weeks" a new deal would be done. That turned into something would get accomplished at the G20.  IMHO nothing gets done while Trump is in office. That includes if he gets 4 more years. China is like a fight with your wife who knows worse case scenario she gets half your stuff. 
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Anything meaningful,  i agree

I have a feeling it will just be a return to what it was minus good relationships between the farmers and China and a grown trade deficit. 

It will either be that or a "deal" that is virtually unverifiable in any meaningful way. 

 Those are my guesses
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I believe there is an almost zero percent chance a deal doesn’t get done.  Trump can’t afford to lose the farmers and if no deal is struck by the election he most certainly will.  

What’s going to happen is what Commish is saying.  Trump will strike a deal that’s 99.9% similar to what’s in place and claim a major victory in his tariff war with China.  He’ll claim it’s billions of new dollars coming in and us in control again.  He’ll speak to no specifics but talk about it like it’s a D-Day victory.  He’ll repeat the non-specific talking points over ad nauseam so much so that his base will see him as the all conquering hero that stood up to China.   

 
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dkp993 said:
 Trump will strike a deal that’s 99.9% similar to what’s in place and claim a major victory in his tariff war with China.  He’s claim it’s billions of new dollars coming in and us in control again.  He’ll speak to no specifics but talk about it like it’s a D-Day victory.  He’ll repeat the non-specific talking points over ad nauseam so much so that his base will see him as the all conquering hero that stood up to China.   
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So just like everything else he does.  But why change,  all he does is claim fake news about anything he is against,  claim huge victories he didn't earn and his supporters just nod in agreement.  

 
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Mile High said:
So just like everything else he does.  But why change,  all he does is claim fake news about anything he is against,  claim huge victories he didn't earn and his supporters just nod in agreement.  
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Exactly.  China knows this too.  

 
Sand said:
:shrug:

I like SB, but the bet is a bit tilted.
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I reckon I was just under the impression that we were all just a bunch of 1-5%ers who wiped our asses with $20 bills and $50's on the weekends.  And that we were engaged in a good natured debate about Trump, the stock market and the "BIG bet" was just whether or not his boast of getting a deal done or not would happen.  And worst case - you send $25 to a charity focused on helping kids with cancer.  How terrible to lose such a bet.

Maybe Sheriff Bart would have had more takers had the money gone to The Donald Trump Jr Foundation for H.E.A.T.E. (That's Hunting Endangered Animals To Extinction).  Sorry Bart.  I'm sending in $25 to the Chance for Hope Foundation -just because.

Anyway.  I'm out.  Good luck to everyone- though I'm sure we won't need it.  To Infinity and Beyond!

 
siffoin said:
I reckon I was just under the impression that we were all just a bunch of 1-5%ers who wiped our asses with $20 bills and $50's on the weekends.  And that we were engaged in a good natured debate about Trump, the stock market and the "BIG bet" was just whether or not his boast of getting a deal done or not would happen.  And worst case - you send $25 to a charity focused on helping kids with cancer.  How terrible to lose such a bet.

Maybe Sheriff Bart would have had more takers had the money gone to The Donald Trump Jr Foundation for H.E.A.T.E. (That's Hunting Endangered Animals To Extinction).  Sorry Bart.  I'm sending in $25 to the Chance for Hope Foundation -just because.

Anyway.  I'm out.  Good luck to everyone- though I'm sure we won't need it.  To Infinity and Beyond!
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You know you're already tops in my book GB but thanks for the donation. Please come back soon. 

 
siffoin said:
I reckon I was just under the impression that we were all just a bunch of 1-5%ers who wiped our asses with $20 bills and $50's on the weekends.  And that we were engaged in a good natured debate about Trump, the stock market and the "BIG bet" was just whether or not his boast of getting a deal done or not would happen.  And worst case - you send $25 to a charity focused on helping kids with cancer.  How terrible to lose such a bet.

Maybe Sheriff Bart would have had more takers had the money gone to The Donald Trump Jr Foundation for H.E.A.T.E. (That's Hunting Endangered Animals To Extinction).  Sorry Bart.  I'm sending in $25 to the Chance for Hope Foundation -just because.

Anyway.  I'm out.  Good luck to everyone- though I'm sure we won't need it.  To Infinity and Beyond!
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:shrug:

Our family donates a substantial amount each year; donations that are more than the typical Republican and way, way more than the typical Democrat.

 
siffoin said:
I reckon I was just under the impression that we were all just a bunch of 1-5%ers who wiped our asses with $20 bills and $50's on the weekends.  And that we were engaged in a good natured debate about Trump, the stock market and the "BIG bet" was just whether or not his boast of getting a deal done or not would happen.  And worst case - you send $25 to a charity focused on helping kids with cancer.  How terrible to lose such a bet.

Maybe Sheriff Bart would have had more takers had the money gone to The Donald Trump Jr Foundation for H.E.A.T.E. (That's Hunting Endangered Animals To Extinction).  Sorry Bart.  I'm sending in $25 to the Chance for Hope Foundation -just because.

Anyway.  I'm out.  Good luck to everyone- though I'm sure we won't need it.  To Infinity and Beyond!
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I’m not in tune with the details of this back and forth, but I want to thank you for your donation!  We really appreciate it. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Market at all time highs and yet you continue to search for negative news to post in this thread.  Well done!
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Lots out there. 

Other than the level of the stock market right now could you post every positive news, metrics that in your opinion  will cause the trend to continue?

I have an open mind and maybe could be convinced that I’m wrong. 

When companies start posting lower earnings or even losses wouldn’t you agree it’s probably going down?

It has already happened some last quarter when they reported. 

 
NREC34 said:
Lots out there. 

Other than the level of the stock market right now could you post every positive news, metrics that in your opinion  will cause the trend to continue?

I have an open mind and maybe could be convinced that I’m wrong. 

When companies start posting lower earnings or even losses wouldn’t you agree it’s probably going down?

It has already happened some last quarter when they reported. 
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Sure.  Bull markets almost always end on excess optimism and large flows into equities.  The exact opposite is happening.  YTD flows out of Equities is 138 billion, YTD flows into bonds is 223 billion.  Investors are also sitting on a much larger allocation of cash than usual.  From a contrarian point of view this is a huge bullish signal and historically the stock market does very well in this scenario.

The 10 year Treasury is sitting at 2%, the Fed will likely trim short term rates in July knocking down short term yields.  The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is right at 2% as well.  Where would you prefer to invest right now?  2% treasuries for 10 years that could go backwards if rates go back up or 2% dividend yield on stocks with likely appreciation?  I think stocks will outperform bonds over the next 12 months.

I would agree that it is not the easiest investment environment right now with stocks at all time highs and bond yields this low.  I do temper my expectations for the next few years and quite frankly expect 1-2% annual returns on bonds and 5-8% annual returns on stocks.

The S&P 500 currently trades at 2,958.  2018 earnings were $162 so that puts a current PE at 18.25.  Historic PE is normally at 16 so we may be slightly overvalued.  Assuming $172 earnings for 2019 would give us a PE of 17.20.

The wild card is the trade war with China and the Fed.  I expect the U.S. to eventually come to an agreement with China, how much of that is priced in is key.  However, the Fed has recently stated they will be ready to accommodate should trade tariffs escalate.   

 
Don't Noonan said:
Sure.  Bull markets almost always end on excess optimism and large flows into equities.  The exact opposite is happening.  YTD flows out of Equities is 138 billion, YTD flows into bonds is 223 billion.  Investors are also sitting on a much larger allocation of cash than usual.  From a contrarian point of view this is a huge bullish signal and historically the stock market does very well in this scenario.

The 10 year Treasury is sitting at 2%, the Fed will likely trim short term rates in July knocking down short term yields.  The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is right at 2% as well.  Where would you prefer to invest right now?  2% treasuries for 10 years that could go backwards if rates go back up or 2% dividend yield on stocks with likely appreciation?  I think stocks will outperform bonds over the next 12 months.

I would agree that it is not the easiest investment environment right now with stocks at all time highs and bond yields this low.  I do temper my expectations for the next few years and quite frankly expect 1-2% annual returns on bonds and 5-8% annual returns on stocks.

The S&P 500 currently trades at 2,958.  2018 earnings were $162 so that puts a current PE at 18.25.  Historic PE is normally at 16 so we may be slightly overvalued.  Assuming $172 earnings for 2019 would give us a PE of 17.20.

The wild card is the trade war with China and the Fed.  I expect the U.S. to eventually come to an agreement with China, how much of that is priced in is key.  However, the Fed has recently stated they will be ready to accommodate should trade tariffs escalate.   
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Cut rates during a record breaking, best economy of all time?  What kind of sense does that make?

Oh that's right, we're in Trumpland now. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Sure.  Bull markets almost always end on excess optimism and large flows into equities.  The exact opposite is happening.  YTD flows out of Equities is 138 billion, YTD flows into bonds is 223 billion.  Investors are also sitting on a much larger allocation of cash than usual.  From a contrarian point of view this is a huge bullish signal and historically the stock market does very well in this scenario.

The 10 year Treasury is sitting at 2%, the Fed will likely trim short term rates in July knocking down short term yields.  The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is right at 2% as well.  Where would you prefer to invest right now?  2% treasuries for 10 years that could go backwards if rates go back up or 2% dividend yield on stocks with likely appreciation?  I think stocks will outperform bonds over the next 12 months.

I would agree that it is not the easiest investment environment right now with stocks at all time highs and bond yields this low.  I do temper my expectations for the next few years and quite frankly expect 1-2% annual returns on bonds and 5-8% annual returns on stocks.

The S&P 500 currently trades at 2,958.  2018 earnings were $162 so that puts a current PE at 18.25.  Historic PE is normally at 16 so we may be slightly overvalued.  Assuming $172 earnings for 2019 would give us a PE of 17.20.

The wild card is the trade war with China and the Fed.  I expect the U.S. to eventually come to an agreement with China, how much of that is priced in is key.  However, the Fed has recently stated they will be ready to accommodate should trade tariffs escalate.   
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Thanks for this post Noonan.  Posts like these and @siffoin‘s are always interesting for laymen like myself.  I have zero clue on if what you’re saying is correct or not (as I’m in deep waters here in relation to my understanding of the market) but I enjoy the learning.   

 
Don't Noonan said:
Sure.  Bull markets almost always end on excess optimism and large flows into equities.  The exact opposite is happening.  YTD flows out of Equities is 138 billion, YTD flows into bonds is 223 billion.  Investors are also sitting on a much larger allocation of cash than usual.  From a contrarian point of view this is a huge bullish signal and historically the stock market does very well in this scenario.

The 10 year Treasury is sitting at 2%, the Fed will likely trim short term rates in July knocking down short term yields.  The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is right at 2% as well.  Where would you prefer to invest right now?  2% treasuries for 10 years that could go backwards if rates go back up or 2% dividend yield on stocks with likely appreciation?  I think stocks will outperform bonds over the next 12 months.

I would agree that it is not the easiest investment environment right now with stocks at all time highs and bond yields this low.  I do temper my expectations for the next few years and quite frankly expect 1-2% annual returns on bonds and 5-8% annual returns on stocks.

The S&P 500 currently trades at 2,958.  2018 earnings were $162 so that puts a current PE at 18.25.  Historic PE is normally at 16 so we may be slightly overvalued.  Assuming $172 earnings for 2019 would give us a PE of 17.20.

The wild card is the trade war with China and the Fed.  I expect the U.S. to eventually come to an agreement with China, how much of that is priced in is key.  However, the Fed has recently stated they will be ready to accommodate should trade tariffs escalate.   
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Good stuff here.  Thanks for posting

 
Sheriff Bart said:
I'm not searching for anything. It was on the front page of CNBC yesterday. 
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FAKE NEWS!

James Daulton said:
Cut rates during a record breaking, best economy of all time?  What kind of sense does that make?

Oh that's right, we're in Trumpland now. 
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Many seem to be of the opinion that the Fed sets rates.  In reality the Fed most often follows rates.  The Fed is following the rate trend down (maybe, the markets get rate moves wrong all the bloody time - worse then weathermen).  

NREC34 said:
I really wish I had the balls. 

Honestly the market “could” still fly way up before the inevitable happens. 
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:yes:   My balls are not brass.  Not stepping into this minefield.  Back in last half 2017, early 2018 we had that impeccable, low volatility grind up for months.  That could easily happen again.

 
New record high again.  Cramer saying tech stocks including 🍎 room to run.  Don’t care for Trump but when it comes to the market he is 💰 

 
Wow another record day for stocks.  They were talking on talk radio today that stocks look to go 10 percent higher from today’s close by the end of the year.  Going to be very interesting if Trump can keep this going up to the election.  People vote with their pocket books will be the theme for 2020

 
Gopher State said:
Wow another record day for stocks.  They were talking on talk radio today that stocks look to go 10 percent higher from today’s close by the end of the year.  Going to be very interesting if Trump can keep this going up to the election.  People vote with their pocket books will be the theme for 2020
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It really is an amazing run how this market has continued. I think we should see some pullbacks next year at the latest if it looks like the Dems have a chance as their college loan giveaways they want to handout will come at the expense of investors. 

 
GoBirds said:
It really is an amazing run how this market has continued. I think we should see some pullbacks next year at the latest if it looks like the Dems have a chance as their college loan giveaways they want to handout will come at the expense of investors. 
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Any implosion of the stock market in the next year is not the fault of democrats. 

 
NREC34 said:
Any implosion of the stock market in the next year is not the fault of democrats. 
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Of course it is...you know, the drop that's going to happen eventually?  Yeah...it will be the Democrats' fault.  The one that erased almost a year's worth of gains was because the Dems took back the house.  Where you been?

 
NREC34 said:
Any implosion of the stock market in the next year is not the fault of democrats. 
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Sorry but your track record of forecasting here doesn’t bode well for accurate stock advice. If Democrats that are pushing a handout plan that taxes stock transactions then yes, obviously it would impact the market in a negative way. 

New highs today by the way.  :popcorn:

 
GoBirds said:
Sorry but your track record of forecasting here doesn’t bode well for accurate stock advice. If Democrats that are pushing a handout plan that taxes stock transactions then yes, obviously it would impact the market in a negative way. 

New highs today by the way.  :popcorn:
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Good. When I go all in short all the more cash in my pocket. Hope it goes parabolic. 

 
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