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Stock Market under Trump (3 Viewers)

timschochet said:
Any objective comparison between Trump and Obama in terms of how the stock market has done during their presidencies is not so good for Trump:

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2019/06/03/stock-market-trump-obama-sp-500
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Can we stop with the comparisons people?  Trump is at the helm of the longest economic expansion on record.  Obama had the extremely accommodative  Fed on his side lowering rates and QE 1, 2, and 3.  Trump has had the Fed raising rates.

 
Don't Noonan said:
Can we stop with the comparisons people?  Trump is at the helm of the longest economic expansion on record.  Obama had the extremely accommodative  Fed on his side lowering rates and QE 1, 2, and 3.  Trump has had the Fed raising rates.
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:goodposting:

Attempts to make the Obama years when he couldn’t get out of his own way look impressive based off anything he did are hilarious based on your points above. Also add in it was impossible for the market to go lower from when he took over without the world ending. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Can we stop with the comparisons people?  Trump is at the helm of the longest economic expansion on record.  Obama had the extremely accommodative  Fed on his side lowering rates and QE 1, 2, and 3.  Trump has had the Fed raising rates.
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The rates are still low.  If Trump had put it on autopilot, it would've been better long term. And btw, Q3of 2016 was very good, with nice wage growth.

 
Serious question because I guess I’m stupid, but when someone says they are “ in cash” from an investment stand point what does that mean? Are they talking CD’s or other “savings account” types.  

 
dkp993 said:
Serious question because I guess I’m stupid, but when someone says they are “ in cash” from an investment stand point what does that mean? Are they talking CD’s or other “savings account” types.  
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I keep hearing everyone say run to CASH, so I've been investing every dollar I can in the Meta Financial Group. Down 12% this year, but that just means it's on sale right now!

 
Don't Noonan said:
Can we stop with the comparisons people?  Trump is at the helm of the longest economic expansion on record.  Obama had the extremely accommodative  Fed on his side lowering rates and QE 1, 2, and 3.  Trump has had the Fed raising rates.
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Stopping the comparisons is a great idea. I think our leaders should be evaluated based on what they have done and said, not on how their opponents would have led (Hillary) or what their predecessor did or didn’t do (Obama). Which means we should look at the legislation that has passed, the state of the union and, at least for me, the messages that our leader shares with the world both in person and on Twitter. All of those things speak for themselves, no comparisons necessary.

 
pecorino said:
Stopping the comparisons is a great idea. I think our leaders should be evaluated based on what they have done and said, not on how their opponents would have led (Hillary) or what their predecessor did or didn’t do (Obama). Which means we should look at the legislation that has passed, the state of the union and, at least for me, the messages that our leader shares with the world both in person and on Twitter. All of those things speak for themselves, no comparisons necessary.
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But that makes Trump look terrible then. 

 
Godsbrother said:
The side that does not control the White House will invariably look at economic indicators that look bad and blame the current administration.  Often times they will even question the validity of any statistics that look good for the current administration.   Meanwhile the party that does have control of the White House will claim the other party is rooting against American prosperity so the current president looks bad.

I have been on this board more than 15 years and this has always been the case.
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Just follow the economists...not difficult, but probably easier to attack the messenger in cases like this.

 
Truly an incredible day in the stock market.  The Dow alone, in the last year, is now up almost 

[checks notes]

20 points.

 
Henry Ford said:
Truly an incredible day in the stock market.  The Dow alone, in the last year, is now up almost 

[checks notes]

20 points.
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Good graph for you to peruse.

Edit:  As an addendum, from the depths of 2009 to your date in 2018 the Dow climbed ~19k points.  I'm not sure what's more irrational, that tripling in value over the last decade or the fact that the last year has been flat.  

 
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Sand said:
Good graph for you to peruse.

Edit:  As an addendum, from the depths of 2009 to your date in 2018 the Dow climbed ~19k points.  I'm not sure what's more irrational, that tripling in value over the last decade or the fact that the last year has been flat.  
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The massive overvaluation is unsustainable.  Also, “flat” is a misnomer in my opinion. It’s been swinging wildly back and forth.  

 
GoBirds said:
Update me on how much it tanked since Trump took office as you all predicted? :popcorn:
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From November 2016 to February 2017 the Dow bumped about 10% as I recall.  Then the Republicans closed ranks to promise a tax bill to corporations that took the better part of a year to pass and led to stock buybacks and an overvaluation of likely about 20%.

Edit: yeesh.  I’m half asleep, apparently.  

 
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Henry Ford said:
The massive overvaluation is unsustainable.  Also, “flat” is a misnomer in my opinion. It’s been swinging wildly back and forth.  
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What is your basis for "massive overvaluation"?  What I see - based on 30 year lookback the CAGR of the S&P is 6.3%.  We are currently .27 sigma over the long term rise rate.  That's not that bad.  That's well within the normal range.  PE of this market is about 20.5.  Somewhat high (long run average is 16 or so), but it's dragged higher by the FANG stocks by a bit (except AAPL, which has been a value stock for a while); their huge market caps weight this measure substantially.  If you look at earnings yield vs. bond yields right now the market looks undervalued.  

If you put the question to me I'd say we're mildly overvalued, but nowhere near some other times we've been in.

BTW, this kind of volatility is normal.  The market is flattish right now.

ETA:  HFS I never realized that back in late 08 the 50 day average % change was 4%.  That's absolutely insane.

 
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Sand said:
What is your basis for "massive overvaluation"?  What I see - based on 30 year lookback the CAGR of the S&P is 6.3%.  We are currently .27 sigma over the long term rise rate.  That's not that bad.  That's well within the normal range.  PE of this market is about 20.5.  Somewhat high (long run average is 16 or so), but it's dragged higher by the FANG stocks by a bit (except AAPL, which has been a value stock for a while); their huge market caps weight this measure substantially.  If you look at earnings yield vs. bond yields right now the market looks undervalued.  

If you put the question to me I'd say we're mildly overvalued, but nowhere near some other times we've been in.

BTW, this kind of volatility is normal.  The market is flattish right now.
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Okay. 

 
Sand said:
What is your basis for "massive overvaluation"?  What I see - based on 30 year lookback the CAGR of the S&P is 6.3%.  We are currently .27 sigma over the long term rise rate.  That's not that bad.  That's well within the normal range.  PE of this market is about 20.5.  Somewhat high (long run average is 16 or so), but it's dragged higher by the FANG stocks by a bit (except AAPL, which has been a value stock for a while); their huge market caps weight this measure substantially.  If you look at earnings yield vs. bond yields right now the market looks undervalued.  

If you put the question to me I'd say we're mildly overvalued, but nowhere near some other times we've been in.

BTW, this kind of volatility is normal.  The market is flattish right now.

ETA:  HFS I never realized that back in late 08 the 50 day average % change was 4%.  That's absolutely insane.
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S&P 500 earnings last year was $162.   S&P 500 closed at 2803 today.  That gives us a current PE of 17.3.  Like you said, historical average is 16 so we may be slightly overvalued but closer to fair value.  Projected earnings this year is $172.  That gives us a forward PE of 16.3 which is very reasonable.

 
Bad jobs report but market is ripping. 

It has become a faked and rigged market under Trump who ironically always talks about fake news. 

 
Weebs210 said:
When a lawyer tries to argue the market with someone who knows what they are talking about, all they can muster is a pathetic "okay" in response. Lmao.
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I disagree with his conclusions. I’ve detailed why repeatedly. I’ve also explained my views on economics and trade and where they come from.  I’m comfortable with the disagreement. 

 
lod001 said:
I'm thinking, give it time. 27k when expecting 185k is a bigly miss. Any rally should be sold.

oh, and it's ALWAYS been rigged.
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Could be a big turnaround, bull trap kind of day and yes I agree it’s always been rigged to some extent. 

 
Weebs210 said:
When a lawyer tries to argue the market with someone who knows what they are talking about, all they can muster is a pathetic "okay" in response. Lmao.
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But when people argue with those lawyers on legal issues like in the Russian thread we should not listen to the lawyers who know what they are talking about, right?  Instead, let’s see what Jimmy Dore has to say. 

 
Sand said:
What is your basis for "massive overvaluation"?  What I see - based on 30 year lookback the CAGR of the S&P is 6.3%.  We are currently .27 sigma over the long term rise rate.  That's not that bad.  That's well within the normal range.  PE of this market is about 20.5.  Somewhat high (long run average is 16 or so), but it's dragged higher by the FANG stocks by a bit (except AAPL, which has been a value stock for a while); their huge market caps weight this measure substantially.  If you look at earnings yield vs. bond yields right now the market looks undervalued.  

If you put the question to me I'd say we're mildly overvalued, but nowhere near some other times we've been in.

BTW, this kind of volatility is normal.  The market is flattish right now.

ETA:  HFS I never realized that back in late 08 the 50 day average % change was 4%.  That's absolutely insane.
Click to expand...
Alright.  Finally at a computer rather than a phone.

My basis for "massive overvaluation" is the market uptick in 2.5 years without any coincident economic factors to indicate a 50%+ value bump since January, 2016.  We're talking about 3 1/2 years.  It's only sustaining that level of rise because of stocks being propped up by buybacks and interest rates that have been too low for too long.

Three months ago seven million Americans were three months late on their car payments.  There's been about a 30% rise in credit card payments being 90 days past due since 2016.

(Notably, your volatility article was from March of 2018. Here's an article about the S&P from this week.  And here's what the exact same group were saying a month and a half after your article.  If you're not including March, 2018 until present, I'm not sure what you're discussing as far as current market volatility. In fact, as far as single day price swings, 2018 ended up as the most volatile of the last five years, at least.  2019's swinging just started again, so the linked article isn't really on point because of the last month.)

You have stocks rising because of companies buying back their own stock, which raises value without coincident outside investment, rising bad debt of consumers, and at the same time you can't ask for more in terms of unemployment numbers and several other economic indicators that you mentioned.

I think we're massively overvalued because stock prices are at an all-time high indicating a 1.5 value over three years ago while more Americans are on the verge of having their cars repossessed and filing bankruptcy than ever, we're in the middle of a tariff battle that doesn't have a current end in sight, initial jobless claims are low, and still building permits have flattened at 1.3 million or so.

I know you're looking at rolling averages based on stock market statistics.  And I get that, and it's a reasonable model, and people who make a living in the stock market use those numbers.  We disagree because I'm looking at different issues.  Copper's dropping.  Debt is turning bad.  Short term yields are dropping.  Those aren't good indicators.

 
Here's a question, @Sand: when the economy and markets turn (and they will eventually, there's no question about that, that's not necessarily due to any administration) what will the government do to keep an economic turn from becoming a full blown recession?  What tools will they use?

 
sho nuff said:
But when people argue with those lawyers on legal issues like in the Russian thread we should not listen to the lawyers who know what they are talking about, right?  Instead, let’s see what Jimmy Dore has to say. 
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If they weren't extremely biased we could listen to them.

 
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