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Stock Thread

KGB said:
I think the secret will be ESPN.  Are they still with them for ads?
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With them for ads still??  God yes, they own like 6%, or almost a billion now.

That's what I was bringing up the other day.  Look at all the connections tied to DKNG.  Soros, Jerry Jones, Kraft and sons, NY Yankees, WWE, the Celtics owner, MSG, Wrigley, the list goes on.  I would wager DKNG gets the NY online sports wagering license coming up.  Their agreements with MLB, NFL, etc. are huge.  I realize margins are razor thin and there are some big players jockeying for a piece of the pie, but with the gambling door open now -- and it's not closing -- who is better aligned than DKNG? Ten years ago, if you told me Disney was going to dip their foot in the pool, I would've said no way.  Well, here we are.

Hell, even the also-rans like Jordan and Brady are in on it, see Brady's NFT deal, lol.  Anyway, we want the Budweiser of sports wagering, right?  Those are some deep inroads in the world of sports, with vested interest.  In the end there will be a couple big ones with the lion's share, your Coke and Pepsi.  They're gonna be one. 

DKNG, the King of Bets.

 
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Harry Frogfish said:
That's what I was bringing up the other day.  Look at all the connections tied to DKNG.  Soros, Jerry Jones, Kraft and sons, NY Yankees, WWE, the Celtics owner, MSG, Wrigley, the list goes on.  I would wager DKNG gets the NY online sports wagering license coming up.  Their agreements with MLB, NFL, etc. are huge.  I realize margins are razor thin and there are some big players jockeying for a piece of the pie, but with the gambling door open now -- and it's not closing -- who is better aligned than DKNG? 
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They all have connections like that, and many entities have partnerships with multiple betting partners. Just to pick one at random, Fanduel has agreements or connections with the Associated Press (they’re using only Fanduel odds across all publications), the Ringer, Charles Barkley, the NHL, Turner Sports, Broncos, Suns, the NFL (along with DK and Caesers), Fox, etc. Similar stories for the other ones. In Arizona, all major sports teams, the TPG golf course, etc. each have their own betting partner. We’ll have something like 10 different sportsbooks to choose from.

Fanduel is building an in-person sportsbook on the first floor of the Suns’ arena in downtown Phoenix (just read this the other day which is why Fanduel is top of mind.)

This is right in the middle of Downtown Phoenix. This is a city with a metropolitan population of 5 or 6 million something like that. Not a bad advertisement.

I’m not predicting failure here. This is a growing industry, but I think the rapid growth ceiling will be here sooner than people think. And there may be some consolidation(like with DK/Nugget), but it won’t be Coke and Pepsi. Barriers to entry aren’t even in the same dimension. No worries about manufacturing, distribution, any of that. Most existing books outside of DK also have brick and mortar casinos and other revenue streams of which online sports betting is but a piece. DK will need to find more ways than DFS and betting to continue accelerated growth for years and years. Can they do something successful that’s not easily replicated by MGM, Caesar’s, Penn/Bartsool, Fanduel, William Hill, Bally’s, Wynn, etc.?

I think DKNG could make people money here in the short term for sure, but for my time horizon of holding stuff for 5-10 years, I just think there’s better options.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Earnings. Dropped today. Too much work to look into the whys and whatnot. Was wondering if someone else already had.
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I still have a bit. It was a nice return and maybe I should have dumped it but I’m not down so still holding. I think it’s got some good long term potential but if you aren’t blowing out earnings you are getting no traction. It’s really volatile. I’ve had so many 10%-20%+ gainers this earnings season but it feels like I’m treading water because anyone not blowing the doors off is getting hit.

Here’s a perfect example:

AMZN up 3% this year

2020 revenue $386B and $21.3B earnings for the entire year

2021 Half year revenue $221B and $15.9B

So, even though the 2021 numbers don’t include Q3 and Q4, which is Amazon’s biggest quarter, their earnings are already 75% of 2020. Revenue growth in both quarters was up 44% and 27%. It’s just interesting that a less than 2% revenue miss (on the low margin side) makes the market completely ignore the 65% earnings beat.

I’m certainly not sad on Amazon, if you told me years ago it would be above $3000, I’d be happy as a clam. It’s just a perfect example of the volatility and extremes in the market. There is no gray.

 
stbugs said:
I still have a bit. It was a nice return and maybe I should have dumped it but I’m not down so still holding. I think it’s got some good long term potential but if you aren’t blowing out earnings you are getting no traction. It’s really volatile. I’ve had so many 10%-20%+ gainers this earnings season but it feels like I’m treading water because anyone not blowing the doors off is getting hit.

Here’s a perfect example:

AMZN up 3% this year

2020 revenue $386B and $21.3B earnings for the entire year

2021 Half year revenue $221B and $15.9B

So, even though the 2021 numbers don’t include Q3 and Q4, which is Amazon’s biggest quarter, their earnings are already 75% of 2020. Revenue growth in both quarters was up 44% and 27%. It’s just interesting that a less than 2% revenue miss (on the low margin side) makes the market completely ignore the 65% earnings beat.

I’m certainly not sad on Amazon, if you told me years ago it would be above $3000, I’d be happy as a clam. It’s just a perfect example of the volatility and extremes in the market. There is no gray.
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It reminds me of MSFT, price-wise.  Impossible to pick the runs. But with war chests like that, their time comes.

Pull up MSFT from 1990.  There is a DECADE of crap in the middle.  From 2000 - 2010.  Depending on the month, their price actually dropped in half during that time.  At best?  Flat.  When all the next big techs took the lead, anti-trust hit MSFT, they fell out of favor, etc.

Then look at this last decade.  10 bagger for Mr Softy, not including dividends.  AMZN will be similar, longer consolidation periods, just too big.  I don't see superstar quarters being the impetus for one run or another necessarily. 

No way to predict where an elephant's going to go.  You just have to throw away the key, as you know.

 
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I think a bunch of us own DIS. 

Earnings soon. 

Predictions on what the stock does?  Thinking we get a nice bump on promises and reservation numbers at their parks. 

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
I think a bunch of us own DIS. 

Earnings soon. 

Predictions on what the stock does?  Thinking we get a nice bump on promises and reservation numbers at their parks. 
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I don’t own it anymore but I’m curious about how the theater/streaming numbers look for Black Widow and whatever other ones they did that with. 

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
Me too. 

They crushed everything 
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They really didn’t. I’m surprised it’s up as much as it is. Revenue beat was 1.3% and streaming revenue was actually a fraction lower than expected. I’m actually surprised the stock’s up 5%, but I can never figure things out.

Also, that’s not new subscribers. D+ is up to 116M and the estimates were 115.2, so a 0.7% beat.

It was a good quarter but it definitely wasn’t close to a crush.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Well, hello there, HGEN. Buy you a drink?

So tempted to sell half my Sept calls and get my premium out of them, but that not why were here.
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I may not be up as much as you but have a decision to make too, up 55% right now

I've kind of already made the decision in my head that I'm gonna let this ride though.  The amount I have tied up in calls is a small percentage.    The smart play would be just to cash it out now but may roll the bones.

 
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stbugs said:
They really didn’t. I’m surprised it’s up as much as it is. Revenue beat was 1.3% and streaming revenue was actually a fraction lower than expected. I’m actually surprised the stock’s up 5%, but I can never figure things out.

Also, that’s not new subscribers. D+ is up to 116M and the estimates were 115.2, so a 0.7% beat.

It was a good quarter but it definitely wasn’t close to a crush.
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Have a glass of wine, buzzkill. 

 
stbugs said:
They really didn’t. I’m surprised it’s up as much as it is. Revenue beat was 1.3% and streaming revenue was actually a fraction lower than expected. I’m actually surprised the stock’s up 5%, but I can never figure things out.

Also, that’s not new subscribers. D+ is up to 116M and the estimates were 115.2, so a 0.7% beat.

It was a good quarter but it definitely wasn’t close to a crush.
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Haven't looked that much into it but just heard on CNBC that parks had a better quarter than expected and especially strong considering no international travel

 
Harry Frogfish said:
It reminds me of MSFT, price-wise.  Impossible to pick the runs. But with war chests like that, their time comes.

Pull up MSFT from 1990.  There is a DECADE of crap in the middle.  From 2000 - 2010.  Depending on the month, their price actually dropped in half during that time.  At best?  Flat.  When all the next big techs took the lead, anti-trust hit MSFT, they fell out of favor, etc.

Then look at this last decade.  10 bagger for Mr Softy, not including dividends.  AMZN will be similar, longer consolidation periods, just too big.  I don't see superstar quarters being the impetus for one run or another necessarily. 

No way to predict where an elephant's going to go.  You just have to throw away the key, as you know.
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Yep, GOOG and AAPL had multi year runs of little share price movement too. Every time I get frustrated holding so much AMZN when it's not moving I'm reminded of when I trimmed my GOOG shares I bought in 2017 for $1021 and selling them in frustration in 2019 at $1080 and then watching them go to the high $2000's today. It's worth being patient in the large cap tech's IMO. 

 
Dwayne Hoover said:
I was smart enough to buy some Disney, albeit a little late.  Back when it was in the $100 range, I was a naysayer.  Needless to say, its a stock I wish I owned more of
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$100 was back in May 2020. Almost every good stock, even Amazon, has gone on a big run since then. As long as you were invested (S&P up 60% too), you didn’t miss anything.

 
I think $ABNB is behaving fairly well. Gave great results last night and strong Q3 guidance, but they’re down slightly for not giving Q4 guidance due to Delta. I think they’d be nuts to give guidance for Q4, personally. Stocks have been punished for light/no guidance so being down only ~2% makes me think we’ve found our IPO base. Thinking of adding but also thinking of just selling everything and YOLO’ing into $UPST.

 
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