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Stock Thread (33 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
KGB
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I didn't see that video, but some of the claims in the MF write-up from the CEO about their competitive position seemed iffy. Larger banks have been investing heavily in AI for years (including for lending), yet it made it sound like Upstart had some giant head-start. Feel like I've seen these stories in the news a lot recently as the industry tries to move away from FICO. Just made me think their framing of the competition seemed very rosy.
Maybe I will take a closer look down the line. More or bigger customers would be a decent sign too.
Again, I could be wrong but I thought it was a great discussion and they really did press on the areas of doubt I had. I’m a believer and I’ve worked at big corporations and don’t have the faith in their projects that I do in smaller focused companies or the large tech companies that started small and know how to keep growing with innovation. I do want to see the full earnings report transcript but they really are killing it. I missed the 40s/50s when I first hear about them because that last quarterly report was way too good, but I caught a bunch in the 80s (still wish I piled in). I’d love to see another pull back because I think we are going to see an overall pull back and keep adding.
identikit
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
I think name recognition might make it a decent trading vehicle for awhile but I was just looking at $WEBR’s financials. Yuk.
I do have a Weber Performer and I use it all the time. Love it. Bought it 8 years ago and they haven’t received any new money from me since. Great product but I need some recurring revenue. Hard pass.
I do have a Weber Performer and I use it all the time. Love it. Bought it 8 years ago and they haven’t received any new money from me since. Great product but I need some recurring revenue. Hard pass.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Hurts a bit. I only had a starter share in it so even my CURI/FUBO pops cover it.
It’s hard to take a day like this and just dump it but feeling like I might. Keep it on the watch list and see if it improves in later quarters.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
As they add more partners, they'll have a more diverse and ever-increasing set of data to pull from to continuously enhance their model, too. If a bank does it internally, they'll likely only have the data from their own customers to model after.
I thought "what if the big legacy banks try and build one together and share data?" I suppose they could. I used to work for a Scottsdale company that was essentially founded and led by members from the big banks. At some point they tried to create a service to battle Paypal/Venmo and eventually Square/CashApp. Zelle is doing fine, but you know how PayPal and Square are doing, And even if they do this and build something, it means they see the threat that $UPST is. That's a good thing. And $UPST's customers aren't necessarily the same, anyway. The TAM is large enough to support some players. $UPST will cater to credit unions and smaller regionals that don't have, or don't want to use, resources to build their own platform. That's a LOT of potential customers and they're steadily adding more.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Lol
I looked at jobs there. From what I could gather the place seemed completely disjointed and the people... less than engaged.
McBokonon
Footballguy
It's been a long time and I was only there a year (post financial crisis, I went back to school and they offered a reliable schedule I could work around.) There's some smart people there. I know the original CEO isn't there anymore. But they were really excited about some new check-writing tech they were rolling out. Those little rectangles people write on. It's like that BMO commercial on right now that shows off how you can get cash from an ATM without a card. Great, thanks! But the point is to ELIMINATE checks and cash altogether you dinosaurs.
Todem
Footballguy
For those looking to get defensive with their real money (boring stuff as usual from me) with two industrial's as well for some future offense with dividends:
GIS
PM
INTC
CSCO
CMI
LMT
All at good valuations with even better forward PE’s and all with of course a strong growing dividend. PM has had a nice run...but it is still cheap. Maybe wait for a 7%-10% pull back on that one...but I would be comfortable here at this level long term. But keep your eye on it on sell offs. Start a position here and add on weakness.
I look at CSCO and INTC and always buy them on dips....and they always come through with modest growth and rising dividends. Again classic value in the “tech Utility” sector as I like to call them.
GIS has great brands, proven long term track record of a growing, stable dividend. A great stock long term. Boring, predictable. This is one of the stalwart holdings I have had 25 plus years. I have always bought it on sell offs.
CMI is a great value IMO. Super strong balance sheet, strong stable growing dividend and they will be a big adapter to green energy moving forward. They can buy a lot of smaller IP type companies in terms of Hydrogen Cell Technology. I like the price here going long. They are still a growth company but love the dividend too.
LMT is cheap. Period. Love the stock here. Been a long time owner and keep buying shares at these levels.
A couple of more names you can look at starting a position as well in is
CLX - Clorox - Stock has taken beating this year. And it may take 12-18 months for it to get turned around....but they are a tried and true staple stock with a steady dividend. I would feel comfortable starting a position here....and adding on any further weakness over the next 12 months.
PG - I love them...have owned them forever and they have been a boring flat stock this year. Start a position here and buy more on any weakness.
So you can see my theme today. Defensive stocks with some stalwart industrials that are undervalued (CMI and LMT).
Stay focused on your long term goals.
GIS
PM
INTC
CSCO
CMI
LMT
All at good valuations with even better forward PE’s and all with of course a strong growing dividend. PM has had a nice run...but it is still cheap. Maybe wait for a 7%-10% pull back on that one...but I would be comfortable here at this level long term. But keep your eye on it on sell offs. Start a position here and add on weakness.
I look at CSCO and INTC and always buy them on dips....and they always come through with modest growth and rising dividends. Again classic value in the “tech Utility” sector as I like to call them.
GIS has great brands, proven long term track record of a growing, stable dividend. A great stock long term. Boring, predictable. This is one of the stalwart holdings I have had 25 plus years. I have always bought it on sell offs.
CMI is a great value IMO. Super strong balance sheet, strong stable growing dividend and they will be a big adapter to green energy moving forward. They can buy a lot of smaller IP type companies in terms of Hydrogen Cell Technology. I like the price here going long. They are still a growth company but love the dividend too.
LMT is cheap. Period. Love the stock here. Been a long time owner and keep buying shares at these levels.
A couple of more names you can look at starting a position as well in is
CLX - Clorox - Stock has taken beating this year. And it may take 12-18 months for it to get turned around....but they are a tried and true staple stock with a steady dividend. I would feel comfortable starting a position here....and adding on any further weakness over the next 12 months.
PG - I love them...have owned them forever and they have been a boring flat stock this year. Start a position here and buy more on any weakness.
So you can see my theme today. Defensive stocks with some stalwart industrials that are undervalued (CMI and LMT).
Stay focused on your long term goals.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
They are very publicly doing just that to reduce reliance on FICO for lending. I don't disagree with your points about those firms not being able to execute well. I also have a lot of experience with how poor they can be at innovation, but they are very much trying to play in the same sandbox. It is an outgrowth of all the investments made in AI and machine learning in the fraud/money laundering space over the last decade. I read the MF piece/CEO quotes as pretending this isn't happening already, which I viewed as a red flag. Misleading IMO.
I also don't know there will be a huge market for holding these type of loans, which will look risky at least for a while. Small banks and credit unions are often very conservative on how they use their sheet. They talked about mortgage market being a target, but the vast majority of mortgages end up backed by the taxpayer with standards set by the gov't.
Not rooting against your pick, just explaining what I saw that turns me off. Generally it is a lot easier to talk myself into disruptive fintech plays...
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
I also really like using Zelle...
McBokonon
Footballguy
Appreciate the thoughts for sure. That’s why we’re here, presumably. I don’t like several that people in here like (EBS, FUBO to name a couple). Doesn’t mean they won’t do well. Some red flags are REALLY red to me and it seems like the same can be said for you.
Anyway, have fun being poor!
I dumped EBS a while ago, but FUBO just had a really nice quarterly report this morning and had nice guidance. I’ll keep them a bit longer (still down a little overall).
Still need to do a thorough review and reallocation as I still feel like I own too many stocks. Thinking about adding a little more NARI. A bit of an overreaction (I jumped in one day early) to the one number and news that was the least important part. Just been huge jumps or huge blow ups after earnings with no I’m between. I’m happy with beating revenue nicely, adding a new product with FDA clearance and raising guidance.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Jan '23 $30 puts are $15. Puts your break even way down at a share price of $15 but no way this thing isn't back under $5 by then, right? Right?!
The other advantage of puts over shorting is it protects you from a margin call on any stupid run to $500 or whatever the apes bring it up to if they decide to have fun again.
I bet we get another shot to short in the $50's though so I am going to wait.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
steelerfan1
Footballguy
Sold off my TSN. Looking to put the small amount into PINS and any other possible bargain for the long term.
Todem
Footballguy
Glad you brought that up. That is on my red alert list as far as watching it closely. And I may end up selling it soon. I just do not like all the heavy storm clouds around it and China sentiment is not good at all. While that typically goes against my long term approach....I can use this as a small potential tax loss and put the money to work in much better companies. I will report here if I sell it. If anything...maybe even selling some Dec covered calls at my cost basis. If it get’s called away so be it...if not..pocket the premium and sell at year end.
EBS is also on the tax loss sale list by year end. They cannot seem to get out of their own way short term. I still like them a lot long term but ye they have some big red flag headwinds. A tax loss sale and repurchase after the required 31 days will probably take place.
In IRA’s I hold EBS and ride it out.
BLDP and QS are still sleeping dragons. I am firmly holding long and invested in their stories and IP. Hope those two work out.
Most of my money (90%) of course is in the master list and my 401K’s and IRA's
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Well, it's been two months, so I'm back for a post.
I think I am becoming increasingly concerned about some things in the economy, inflation, supply chain issues. Automobile prices are out of control and inventory is nowhere to be found. I just dropped off my vehicle to get serviced and the last time I was at this dealership, the lot was filled with new cars. Rough eyeball estimate 400-500 on the lot. Today, less than 50. Hell, the showroom had about 8 cars instead of 20 usually there. I asked one of the sales staff and they said yeah, maybe next week more will come in. Right next door was an auto nation, and there were maybe 20 cars on the lot. WTF. I heard somewhere that Ford is currently turning cars in 8 days. From the time it comes off the production floor, it is in a new owners driveway in 8 days. That sounds nuts to me. (side note, I bought F stock about 2 months back). Used vehicles are being priced out of hand. I am hearing repeated stories of people selling used cards for more than they purchased them for 2-3 years ago. That's not very normal.
Housing prices are out of control. I mean, just for a broad perspective, on zillow my home has increased 20% in value in less than 6 months. I mean, my house is nice and all, but it took about 7-8 years for it to increase 20% prior to this. And this is not an isolated incident as it seems all over the country there is nowhere close to enough new home inventory and none on the horizon.
And any one been food shopping lately? Now, I don't pay particular close attention to food prices on supplies that we need to buy every week. I mean, I'm not rich, but if we need a gallon of milk, we're buying a gallon of milk, and my customary weekly shopping bill is say $250-$300. Well, the past few months, it's been easily 20-30% higher than this, AND I am not buying any wine when we go shopping any longer. And anecdotally, I went to a local market this past weekend to buy a pound of shrimp for a shrimp boil and was going to get some crab. Snow crab by me is typically $12-$18/lb (yeah, it's a pretty wide range depending on time of year). Last weekend it was $24/lb. King Crab which is typically slightly higher was $48.97/lb. Yes, almost $50 per pound ffs. Maybe there is some crab shortage I'm not aware of, and I do believe the season is typically later in the year, but wtf is paying 50 bucks for a pound of crab?
I know there is massive need for labor, especially in restaurants. A few months back a local wing chain (Pluckers) had a banner saying they were hiring. $16-$22/hour with a $1,500 sign on bonus. To drop wings in a fryer, ffs. And they can't hire enough staff! I guess they need to pay this rate so kids can have king crab on weekends around here.
Gold is sinking like a brick, 10 year rates are at historic lows, crypto currencies are creeping higher and higher. Am I spooked a bit? Hell yes I am. I do not believe this inflation is transitory. Oh, and have you checked out shipping container rates from say China to Los Angeles?
What's this all mean? How the #### do I know. Since my last update, I haven't sold any more stock, have been piling cash into my brokerage and retirement accounts and have recently bought, F, PSFE, WMT and XLF. Everything seems over priced to me, from stocks to crab legs. For real, but I am marginally concerned here.
I'll check back in a few months with more crazy guru_007 thoughts, and hope you fellas enjoy your afternoon
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I picked up FUBO just because it was a pick that had gotten crushed at one point. It's made money, but been all over the place. I agree with the red flags there too.
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Sand
Footballguy
I worry about 2 and 3, but not really 1. Goldman just predicted 50 year lows in unemployment coming. If they're anywhere close that's a great economic sign.
Todem
Footballguy
All legit concerns.
I think the hyper price increases in cars and homes is transitory. Supply is scarce and demand is fierce.
Food...not so much.
I do think things will settle down but it will not happen overnight.
I do feel we are due for a recalibration in the market....but as long as these interest rates stay like this....we won’t see it unless another black swan reveals itself.
I do think the correction/recalibration of the market and asset prices for everything in the world takes place once the fed tapers and raises rates.
Kinda why I made that “defense” post today.
I am not concerned long term. Wage inflation was long overdue for working people. So we as consumers are going to start paying for that. That’s life.
Cars and houses will correct. Not crash.
Concerned....yes of course. Long term concern? No.
Be diversified.
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SFBayDuck
Footballguy
As always, thanks for your insights. I've been wanting to swap the T shares I've been holding for something else, so just did so with CMI.
Any other industrials that you see benefiting from the infrastructure bill in particular? Or is that largely priced in already for them?
Todem
Footballguy
I think the bill is already priced in for most.
I love MDU (gave that pick a while ago).....I still think they have upside to the $40 range. Great dividend. Solid business. They are in infrastructure although not as directly. A more conservative play in that space.
I will look at a few more tomorrow and post here.
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I still don’t get the car and house thing. Maybe it’s just me but it wasn’t that hard for people to save up and wait. Why would anyone buy a house that you know is overpriced? Same with a used car. You need it right now? A car may just be a couple thousand more but paying half a mill more than a house was worth a month ago? There was an article just this morning talking about the signs of the mania going down but I still don’t get the mad rush to have to buy a new house or car. It’s not like the next hot toy your kid wants for Christmas.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Whoa, what just happened to DIS?!!! :(
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Went to a Cajun place for lunch last week and there was a sign that king crab legs were$75 a pound and "this isn't a misprint don't argue with us" under it. 
Of course now I want king crab legs.
Of course now I want king crab legs.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Must have been a blip. Scrolled across a minute ago down $10+ a share. Now up $1+.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Who the hell is paying that for crab?
identikit
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
I can personally speak to the home thing…... 2 reasons I bought a new home recently (closed last month). 1- I found myself all of a sudden with a ton a equity that I didn’t have just 6 months before. This equity allowed me to put 20% on my new home that has things my current home doesn’t and we wanted (even at the inflated price). 2 - the record low interest rate allow me (and others) the ability to lock in a great rate on a home a level up from what I could afford. I couldn’t (wouldn’t) have bought my new home at a 4/5% rate. And as I’m looking to stay in the new home for 10/15 yrs this inflated current price doesn’t scare me.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah for some people if you need a home, then you need a home. You can't necessarily wait.
And like in your case, some people are using this as an opportunity to upgrade. Even if buying at inflated values, they're selling at inflated values too.
Another thing I've seen is home values really inflating in desirable areas. I think this is a side effect of the shift to a WFH economy. Demand has gone way up for homes in areas that people want to live, but couldn't necessarily find work at before.
Lastly, investment properties are crushing it right now so that is driving prices up bigtime. Investors are swooping in and buying any home they can throw up on AirBNB/VRBO to make a tidy profit. Part of the reason I remain long ABNB fwiw.
@Todem Brother from another mother?! Pushing in more long chips and I was just thinking diversification and dividend with PG. Have the exact same thoughts with EBS and BLDP. Dumped BABA about 6-8 months ago on a high for the same reason. What are your thoughts on REITs on the dip right now for dividends like WPC?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
This makes sense as long as you’re not overextending. If we needed 20% down, the equity built in the last year in our current home would allow us to buy a million dollar home. I probably wouldn’t as I don’t want to pay over $3k monthly plus taxes and insurance, but if we were to ever do so, now is a better time than before.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Some other good examples given here, but you're looking at it through the specific lens of owning a home, selling it, and buying another. That doesn't apply to a lot of people. We rented in the Bay Area for years because (divorce is expensive and) I couldn't afford a down payment, let alone the house payments. So when our landlord told us they were selling we decided to move to a more affordable area as rentals were super tight were we lived. So we moved, jumped into the ridiculous housing market and probably overpaid a bit, but we were able to afford the down payment and our monthly payments are considerably less than our rental payments were. So it made total financial sense, even if we may have "overpaid" in the market we bought in.
Now we also currently only have one car (my 17 year old daughter is driving the other) and I really want to buy a new or used 4-Runner, but the market is so ridiculous that I'm trying to hold out there.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Was driving North on I-77 Wednesday and got off at a Parkersburg exit. 5 minutes later I had gone by 2 different Draftkings billboards. That's some good advertising in a city that has no pro sports teams anywhere close to it. Wonder how many they have there and similar cities.
