The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Their earnings per share and revenue were wayyy below 2019'sFun fact: $AMC has sold three times the number of shares as they did movie tickets in Q2.
Their earnings per share and revenue were wayyy below 2019'sFun fact: $AMC has sold three times the number of shares as they did movie tickets in Q2.
There was an interview with the CEO that was fantastic and they talked through competition/moat and it was really eye opening to me. I see them expanding their reach faster than competition will hurt them. I could be wrong but I like them a lot. I wish I had heard that back when it was in the 80s. I would have been a lot more aggressive. It already is my #10. I like the rest of my top 9 except maybe having too much of some but I think I’ve got others I could trim too.I've been stubborn on getting into this one, even though I have a friend who has been doing well on UPST lately. It just doesn't seem like they are doing much unique so it is difficult to see how they are going to gain share. When I read the writeups on MF I don't see their moat.
It’s a horrible investment. The CEO is just giddy that retail investors turned them into a meme stock so they could raise a ton of capital at crazy prices. There are 5 times the shares that there were pre-pandemic and overall revenue and earnings are way down and honestly, may not ever recover as there are cheaper at home options. Even at $5 a share, I wouldn’t touch it as I feel like I’d be wasting the opportunity of investing elsewhere.Their earnings per share and revenue were wayyy below 2019's
I agree 100%It’s a horrible investment. The CEO is just giddy that retail investors turned them into a meme stock so they could raise a ton of capital at crazy prices. There are 5 times the shares that there were pre-pandemic and overall revenue and earnings are way down and honestly, may not ever recover as there are cheaper at home options. Even at $5 a share, I wouldn’t touch it as I feel like I’d be wasting the opportunity of investing elsewhere.
Actually, I think Im going to short it.It’s a horrible investment. The CEO is just giddy that retail investors turned them into a meme stock so they could raise a ton of capital at crazy prices. There are 5 times the shares that there were pre-pandemic and overall revenue and earnings are way down and honestly, may not ever recover as there are cheaper at home options. Even at $5 a share, I wouldn’t touch it as I feel like I’d be wasting the opportunity of investing elsewhere.
There was an interview with the CEO that was fantastic and they talked through competition/moat and it was really eye opening to me. I see them expanding their reach faster than competition will hurt them. I could be wrong but I like them a lot. I wish I had heard that back when it was in the 80s. I would have been a lot more aggressive. It already is my #10. I like the rest of my top 9 except maybe having too much of some but I think I’ve got others I could trim too.
Again, I could be wrong but I thought it was a great discussion and they really did press on the areas of doubt I had. I’m a believer and I’ve worked at big corporations and don’t have the faith in their projects that I do in smaller focused companies or the large tech companies that started small and know how to keep growing with innovation. I do want to see the full earnings report transcript but they really are killing it. I missed the 40s/50s when I first hear about them because that last quarterly report was way too good, but I caught a bunch in the 80s (still wish I piled in). I’d love to see another pull back because I think we are going to see an overall pull back and keep adding.I didn't see that video, but some of the claims in the MF write-up from the CEO about their competitive position seemed iffy. Larger banks have been investing heavily in AI for years (including for lending), yet it made it sound like Upstart had some giant head-start. Feel like I've seen these stories in the news a lot recently as the industry tries to move away from FICO. Just made me think their framing of the competition seemed very rosy.
Maybe I will take a closer look down the line. More or bigger customers would be a decent sign too.
I never really understood the love for $APPH and thank goodness for that - down 33% today. A 60% guidance cut is inexcusable.
Hurts a bit. I only had a starter share in it so even my CURI/FUBO pops cover it.I'm paying for this one today.
The big hurt.
Again, I could be wrong but I thought it was a great discussion and they really did press on the areas of doubt I had. I’m a believer and I’ve worked at big corporations and don’t have the faith in their projects that I do in smaller focused companies or the large tech companies that started small and know how to keep growing with innovation. I do want to see the full earnings report transcript but they really are killing it. I missed the 40s/50s when I first hear about them because that last quarterly report was way too good, but I caught a bunch in the 80s (still wish I piled in). I’d love to see another pull back because I think we are going to see an overall pull back and keep adding.
As they add more partners, they'll have a more diverse and ever-increasing set of data to pull from to continuously enhance their model, too. If a bank does it internally, they'll likely only have the data from their own customers to model after.Bold is a good point too.
LolAs they add more partners, they'll have a more diverse and ever-increasing set of data to pull from to continuously enhance their model, too. If a bank does it internally, they'll likely only have the data from their own customers to model after.
I thought "what if the big legacy banks try and build one together and share data?" I suppose they could. I used to work for a Scottsdale company that was essentially founded and led by members from the big banks. At some point they tried to create a service to battle Paypal/Venmo and eventually Square/CashApp. Zelle is doing fine, but you know how PayPal and Square are doing, And even if they do this and build something, it means they see the threat that $UPST is. That's a good thing. And $UPST's customers aren't necessarily the same, anyway. The TAM is large enough to support some players. $UPST will cater to credit unions and smaller regionals that don't have, or don't want to use, resources to build their own platform. That's a LOT of potential customers and they're steadily adding more.
It's been a long time and I was only there a year (post financial crisis, I went back to school and they offered a reliable schedule I could work around.) There's some smart people there. I know the original CEO isn't there anymore. But they were really excited about some new check-writing tech they were rolling out. Those little rectangles people write on. It's like that BMO commercial on right now that shows off how you can get cash from an ATM without a card. Great, thanks! But the point is to ELIMINATE checks and cash altogether you dinosaurs.Lol
I looked at jobs there. From what I could gather the place seemed completely disjointed and the people... less than engaged.
For those looking to get defensive with their real money (boring stuff as usual from me) with two industrial's as well for some future offense with dividends:
GIS
PM
INTC
CSCO
CMI
LMT
All at good valuations with even better forward PE’s and all with of course a strong growing dividend. PM has had a nice run...but it is still cheap. Maybe wait for a 7%-10% pull back on that one...but I would be comfortable here at this level long term. But keep your eye on it on sell offs. Start a position here and add on weakness.
I look at CSCO and INTC and always buy them on dips....and they always come through with modest growth and rising dividends. Again classic value in the “tech Utility” sector as I like to call them.
GIS has great brands, proven long term track record of a growing, stable dividend. A great stock long term. Boring, predictable. This is one of the stalwart holdings I have had 25 plus years. I have always bought it on sell offs.
CMI is a great value IMO. Super strong balance sheet, strong stable growing dividend and they will be a big adapter to green energy moving forward. They can buy a lot of smaller IP type companies in terms of Hydrogen Cell Technology. I like the price here going long. They are still a growth company but love the dividend too.
LMT is cheap. Period. Love the stock here. Been a long time owner and keep buying shares at these levels.
A couple of more names you can look at starting a position as well in is
CLX - Clorox - Stock has taken beating this year. And it may take 12-18 months for it to get turned around....but they are a tried and true staple stock with a steady dividend. I would feel comfortable starting a position here....and adding on any further weakness over the next 12 months.
PG - I love them...have owned them forever and they have been a boring flat stock this year. Start a position here and buy more on any weakness.
So you can see my theme today. Defensive stocks with some stalwart industrials that are undervalued (CMI and LMT).
Stay focused on your long term goals.
As they add more partners, they'll have a more diverse and ever-increasing set of data to pull from to continuously enhance their model, too. If a bank does it internally, they'll likely only have the data from their own customers to model after.
I thought "what if the big legacy banks try and build one together and share data?" I suppose they could. I used to work for a Scottsdale company that was essentially founded and led by members from the big banks. At some point they tried to create a service to battle Paypal/Venmo and eventually Square/CashApp. Zelle is doing fine, but you know how PayPal and Square are doing, And even if they do this and build something, it means they see the threat that $UPST is. That's a good thing. And $UPST's customers aren't necessarily the same, anyway. The TAM is large enough to support some players. $UPST will cater to credit unions and smaller regionals that don't have, or don't want to use, resources to build their own platform. That's a LOT of potential customers and they're steadily adding more.
Appreciate the thoughts for sure. That’s why we’re here, presumably. I don’t like several that people in here like (EBS, FUBO to name a couple). Doesn’t mean they won’t do well. Some red flags are REALLY red to me and it seems like the same can be said for you.They are very publicly doing just that to reduce reliance on FICO for lending. I don't disagree with your points about those firms not being able to execute well. I also have a lot of experience with how poor they can be at innovation, but they are very much trying to play in the same sandbox. It is an outgrowth of all the investments made in AI and machine learning in the fraud/money laundering space over the last decade. I read the MF piece/CEO quotes as pretending this isn't happening already, which I viewed as a red flag. Misleading IMO.
I also don't know there will be a huge market for holding these type of loans, which will look risky at least for a while. Small banks and credit unions are often very conservative on how they use their sheet. They talked about mortgage market being a target, but the vast majority of mortgages end up backed by the taxpayer with standards set by the gov't.
Not rooting against your pick, just explaining what I saw that turns me off. Generally it is a lot easier to talk myself into disruptive fintech plays...
I dumped EBS a while ago, but FUBO just had a really nice quarterly report this morning and had nice guidance. I’ll keep them a bit longer (still down a little overall).Appreciate the thoughts for sure. That’s why we’re here, presumably. I don’t like several that people in here like (EBS, FUBO to name a couple). Doesn’t mean they won’t do well. Some red flags are REALLY red to me and it seems like the same can be said for you.
Anyway, have fun being poor!
Still can't short on TDA. :(
Thanks Todem. You still okay with BABA long term?For those looking to get defensive with their real money (boring stuff as usual from me) with two industrial's as well for some future offense with dividends:
GIS
PM
INTC
CSCO
CMI
LMT
All at good valuations with even better forward PE’s and all with of course a strong growing dividend. PM has had a nice run...but it is still cheap. Maybe wait for a 7%-10% pull back on that one...but I would be comfortable here at this level long term. But keep your eye on it on sell offs. Start a position here and add on weakness.
I look at CSCO and INTC and always buy them on dips....and they always come through with modest growth and rising dividends. Again classic value in the “tech Utility” sector as I like to call them.
GIS has great brands, proven long term track record of a growing, stable dividend. A great stock long term. Boring, predictable. This is one of the stalwart holdings I have had 25 plus years. I have always bought it on sell offs.
CMI is a great value IMO. Super strong balance sheet, strong stable growing dividend and they will be a big adapter to green energy moving forward. They can buy a lot of smaller IP type companies in terms of Hydrogen Cell Technology. I like the price here going long. They are still a growth company but love the dividend too.
LMT is cheap. Period. Love the stock here. Been a long time owner and keep buying shares at these levels.
A couple of more names you can look at starting a position as well in is
CLX - Clorox - Stock has taken beating this year. And it may take 12-18 months for it to get turned around....but they are a tried and true staple stock with a steady dividend. I would feel comfortable starting a position here....and adding on any further weakness over the next 12 months.
PG - I love them...have owned them forever and they have been a boring flat stock this year. Start a position here and buy more on any weakness.
So you can see my theme today. Defensive stocks with some stalwart industrials that are undervalued (CMI and LMT).
Stay focused on your long term goals.
Glad you brought that up. That is on my red alert list as far as watching it closely. And I may end up selling it soon. I just do not like all the heavy storm clouds around it and China sentiment is not good at all. While that typically goes against my long term approach....I can use this as a small potential tax loss and put the money to work in much better companies. I will report here if I sell it. If anything...maybe even selling some Dec covered calls at my cost basis. If it get’s called away so be it...if not..pocket the premium and sell at year end.Thanks Todem. You still okay with BABA long term?
Well, it's been two months, so I'm back for a post.Just some crazy guru_007 thoughts. Will check back in a few months.
Appreciate the thoughts for sure. That’s why we’re here, presumably. I don’t like several that people in here like (EBS, FUBO to name a couple). Doesn’t mean they won’t do well. Some red flags are REALLY red to me and it seems like the same can be said for you.
Anyway, have fun being poor!
I worry about 2 and 3, but not really 1. Goldman just predicted 50 year lows in unemployment coming. If they're anywhere close that's a great economic sign.I think I am becoming increasingly concerned about some things in the economy, inflation, supply chain issues.
All legit concerns.Well, it's been two months, so I'm back for a post.
I think I am becoming increasingly concerned about some things in the economy, inflation, supply chain issues. Automobile prices are out of control and inventory is nowhere to be found. I just dropped off my vehicle to get serviced and the last time I was at this dealership, the lot was filled with new cars. Rough eyeball estimate 400-500 on the lot. Today, less than 50. Hell, the showroom had about 8 cars instead of 20 usually there. I asked one of the sales staff and they said yeah, maybe next week more will come in. Right next door was an auto nation, and there were maybe 20 cars on the lot. WTF. I heard somewhere that Ford is currently turning cars in 8 days. From the time it comes off the production floor, it is in a new owners driveway in 8 days. That sounds nuts to me. (side note, I bought F stock about 2 months back). Used vehicles are being priced out of hand. I am hearing repeated stories of people selling used cards for more than they purchased them for 2-3 years ago. That's not very normal.
Housing prices are out of control. I mean, just for a broad perspective, on zillow my home has increased 20% in value in less than 6 months. I mean, my house is nice and all, but it took about 7-8 years for it to increase 20% prior to this. And this is not an isolated incident as it seems all over the country there is nowhere close to enough new home inventory and none on the horizon.
And any one been food shopping lately? Now, I don't pay particular close attention to food prices on supplies that we need to buy every week. I mean, I'm not rich, but if we need a gallon of milk, we're buying a gallon of milk, and my customary weekly shopping bill is say $250-$300. Well, the past few months, it's been easily 20-30% higher than this, AND I am not buying any wine when we go shopping any longer. And anecdotally, I went to a local market this past weekend to buy a pound of shrimp for a shrimp boil and was going to get some crab. Snow crab by me is typically $12-$18/lb (yeah, it's a pretty wide range depending on time of year). Last weekend it was $24/lb. King Crab which is typically slightly higher was $48.97/lb. Yes, almost $50 per pound ffs. Maybe there is some crab shortage I'm not aware of, and I do believe the season is typically later in the year, but wtf is paying 50 bucks for a pound of crab?
I know there is massive need for labor, especially in restaurants. A few months back a local wing chain (Pluckers) had a banner saying they were hiring. $16-$22/hour with a $1,500 sign on bonus. To drop wings in a fryer, ffs. And they can't hire enough staff! I guess they need to pay this rate so kids can have king crab on weekends around here.
Gold is sinking like a brick, 10 year rates are at historic lows, crypto currencies are creeping higher and higher. Am I spooked a bit? Hell yes I am. I do not believe this inflation is transitory. Oh, and have you checked out shipping container rates from say China to Los Angeles?
What's this all mean? How the #### do I know. Since my last update, I haven't sold any more stock, have been piling cash into my brokerage and retirement accounts and have recently bought, F, PSFE, WMT and XLF. Everything seems over priced to me, from stocks to crab legs. For real, but I am marginally concerned here.
I'll check back in a few months with more crazy guru_007 thoughts, and hope you fellas enjoy your afternoon
CMI is a great value IMO. Super strong balance sheet, strong stable growing dividend and they will be a big adapter to green energy moving forward. They can buy a lot of smaller IP type companies in terms of Hydrogen Cell Technology. I like the price here going long. They are still a growth company but love the dividend too.
I think the bill is already priced in for most.As always, thanks for your insights. I've been wanting to swap the T shares I've been holding for something else, so just did so with CMI.
Any other industrials that you see benefiting from the infrastructure bill in particular? Or is that largely priced in already for them?
AND I am not buying any wine when we go shopping any longer.
Must have been a blip. Scrolled across a minute ago down $10+ a share. Now up $1+.Whoa, what just happened to DIS?!!! :(
Who the hell is paying that for crab?
I can personally speak to the home thing…... 2 reasons I bought a new home recently (closed last month). 1- I found myself all of a sudden with a ton a equity that I didn’t have just 6 months before. This equity allowed me to put 20% on my new home that has things my current home doesn’t and we wanted (even at the inflated price). 2 - the record low interest rate allow me (and others) the ability to lock in a great rate on a home a level up from what I could afford. I couldn’t (wouldn’t) have bought my new home at a 4/5% rate. And as I’m looking to stay in the new home for 10/15 yrs this inflated current price doesn’t scare me.I still don’t get the car and house thing. Maybe it’s just me but it wasn’t that hard for people to save up and wait. Why would anyone buy a house that you know is overpriced? Same with a used car. You need it right now? A car may just be a couple thousand more but paying half a mill more than a house was worth a month ago? There was an article just this morning talking about the signs of the mania going down but I still don’t get the mad rush to have to buy a new house or car. It’s not like the next hot toy your kid wants for Christmas.
Even chet knows crab isn't that good. He'd rather buy houses overvalued by $500kThe upper crust FBG elite
I can personally speak to the home thing…... 2 reasons I bought an new home recently (closed last month). 1- I found myself all of a sudden with a ton a equity that I didn’t have just 6 months before. This equity allowed me to put 20% on my new home that has things my current home doesn’t and we wanted (even at the inflated price. 2 - the record low interest rate allow me (and others) the ability to lock in a great rate on a home a level up from what I could afford. I couldn’t (wouldn’t) have bought my new home at a 4/5% rate. And as I’m looking to stay in the new home for 10/15 yrs this inflated current price doesn’t scare me.
This makes sense as long as you’re not overextending. If we needed 20% down, the equity built in the last year in our current home would allow us to buy a million dollar home. I probably wouldn’t as I don’t want to pay over $3k monthly plus taxes and insurance, but if we were to ever do so, now is a better time than before.I can personally speak to the home thing…... 2 reasons I bought a new home recently (closed last month). 1- I found myself all of a sudden with a ton a equity that I didn’t have just 6 months before. This equity allowed me to put 20% on my new home that has things my current home doesn’t and we wanted (even at the inflated price). 2 - the record low interest rate allow me (and others) the ability to lock in a great rate on a home a level up from what I could afford. I couldn’t (wouldn’t) have bought my new home at a 4/5% rate. And as I’m looking to stay in the new home for 10/15 yrs this inflated current price doesn’t scare me.