Stop riding the FWP bandwagon (1 Viewer)

[Anonymous Internet User]

Willie Parker, aka FWP, is currently ranked the #20 RB in Antsports ADP typically going early round 3 ahead of guys like Deuce McAllister, Warrick Dunn, Corey Dillon, Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones, Deshaun Foster, etc.

I'm here to say NO. Don't do it. Here's why.

In 2005, FWP's statline looks decent. In 15 games, he had 255 rushes for 1202 yards (4.7 YPC) with 4 TDs. Let's breakdown those stats and I'll add in the playoffs:

Game 1: TEN 22-161 (7.3) + 1 TD

Game 2: @HOU 25-111 (4.4) + 1 TD

Game 3: NE 17-55 (3.2)

BYE

Game 4: @SD 10-26 (2.6)

Game 5: JAC 21-55 (2.6)

Game 6: @CIN 18-131 (7.3) + 1 TD

Game 7: BAL 14-63 (4.5)

Game 8: @GB 5-13 (2.6)

Game 9: CLE -DNP-

Game 10: @BAL 18-59 (3.3)

Game 11: @IND 12-43 (3.6)

Game 12: CIN 15-71 (4.7)

Game 13: CHI 21-68 (3.2)

Game 14: @MIN 14-81 (5.8)

Game 15: @CLE 17-130 (7.6) + 1 TD

Game 16: DET 26-135 (5.2)

Playoff 1: @CIN 16-38 (2.4)

Playoff 2: @IND 17-59 (3.5)

Playoff 3: @DEN 14-35 (2.5)

Games where he turned in a good performance are in red and games with a below average performance are in blue.

Immediately you notice that he had 5 good games during the season (out of 18 games he played in, not including superbowl). These were the only games where he had 85+ yards, and incidentally the only games he scored a TD in (although not his fault, Bettis stole 9 TDs + Haynes had 3 TDs as well).

Let's take a look at the five teams he performed well against: TEN, HOU, CIN, CLE, DET. In terms of average yards per game given up by these teams last year, they rank 19th, 28th, 31st, 16th, and 20th. He never had a strong showing against a defense in the top HALF of the league!

Additionally, in 10 games he had a 3.6 YPC or lower! To be fair, 9 of those games PIT played a team with a top-16 defense (in terms of total yardage allowed) in the league.

Here is the PIT 2006 schedule:

Sep 7 Miami

Sep 18 @Jacksonville

Sep 24 Cincinnati

Week 4 BYE

Oct 8 @San Diego

Oct 15 Kansas City

Oct 22 @Atlanta

Oct 29 @Oakland

Nov 5 Denver

Nov 12 New Orleans

Nov 19 @Cleveland

Nov 26 @Baltimore

Dec 3 Tampa Bay

Dec 7 Cleveland

Dec 17 @Carolina

Dec 24 Baltimore

Dec 31 @Cincinnati

Teams that are bolded are traditionally tough against the run. Of course, the strength of team defenses change from year-to-year so there's no guarentee of the difficulty of this schedule. However, given FWP's performance against decent defenses I can't see him performing well in the bolded weeks.

The only thing that FWP has going for him is the possibility of more TD opportunities if he's used in the red-zone. However, it is likely that Duce Staley will assume that role since PIT is paying him a large amount of money this season and it wouldn't make much sense to bench Staley since he's finally healthy again.

I'm not against drafting FWP altogether. If he's available in the 5th or 6th round, I'll probably take him. But there's just no way that I'd take him over the other talent available in rounds 3 and 4 and I can't honestly see why his ADP is so high right now.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's funny to me really. When other rookie running backs that are more highly touted coming into the league put up numbers around 1200/5 in their first year as the starter (think KJ, Caddy) everyone touts them as the next big thing, because they're only going to get better. Yet, it seems to be the most oft-ignored point with Parker that the kid is even more raw than those guys and is very young with little experience and, like them (even moreso to a point since he's more raw), is only going to become better as a player than he was previously.

No, his numbers weren't daunting last year. They were only decent. But they were decent as his first year being the starting RB at the college or pro level. He's never had the attention of the coaches before, he's never had the in-game experience before. He's only going to get better as a player.

 

[cracKer]

It's funny to me really. When other rookie running backs that are more highly touted coming into the league put up numbers around 1200/5 in their first year as the starter (think KJ, Caddy) everyone touts them as the next big thing, because they're only going to get better. Yet, it seems to be the most oft-ignored point with Parker that the kid is even more raw than those guys and is very young with little experience and, like them (even moreso to a point since he's more raw), is only going to become better as a player than he was previously.

No, his numbers weren't daunting last year. They were only decent. But they were decent as his first year being the starting RB at the college or pro level. He's never had the attention of the coaches before, he's never had the in-game experience before. He's only going to get better as a player.

...and you forgot to mention that he's fast

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

It's funny to me really. When other rookie running backs that are more highly touted coming into the league put up numbers around 1200/5 in their first year as the starter (think KJ, Caddy) everyone touts them as the next big thing, because they're only going to get better. Yet, it seems to be the most oft-ignored point with Parker that the kid is even more raw than those guys and is very young with little experience and, like them (even moreso to a point since he's more raw), is only going to become better as a player than he was previously.

No, his numbers weren't daunting last year. They were only decent. But they were decent as his first year being the starting RB at the college or pro level. He's never had the attention of the coaches before, he's never had the in-game experience before. He's only going to get better as a player.

...and you forgot to mention that he's fast

Hard not to be fast at 5-10, 209 lbs.

 

[IRON CHEF]

Aiu must be a cicny, indy or denver fan.......what about seattle?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

This reminds me of the "I don't need to outrun the bear, I just need to outrun YOU" statement.

FWP doesn't have to be good, just good enough to beat everyone else on the roster right now.

It's quite easy for a RB who "isn't that good" to be good for fantasy. You can be average. Heck you can be below average (Lamont Jordan).

Average x 280 carries = top 15 RB most likely.

All he has to do is repeat what he did last year which is far from a lofty goal. He even has a slightly higher ceiling this year with Bettis gone.

 

[SSOG]

This reminds me of the "I don't need to outrun the bear, I just need to outrun YOU" statement.

FWP doesn't have to be good, just good enough to beat everyone else on the roster right now.

It's quite easy for a RB who "isn't that good" to be good for fantasy. You can be average. Heck you can be below average (Lamont Jordan).

Average x 280 carries = top 15 RB most likely.

All he has to do is repeat what he did last year which is far from a lofty goal. He even has a slightly higher ceiling this year with Bettis gone.

See this man's sig for details on bad RBs who make for good fantasy RBs.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Game 14: @MIN 14-81 (5.8)

Why is a game like this considered a bad game? He didn't get a ton of work, but on the road against a decent D, he did fairly well with only 14 carries. Now with Bettis gone, he may get more work including the vital goalline work.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Game 14: @MIN 14-81 (5.8)

Why is a game like this considered a bad game? He didn't get a ton of work, but on the road against a decent D, he did fairly well with only 14 carries. Now with Bettis gone, he may get more work including the vital goalline work.

I think that you have to consider games for how they are on the whole. The best RB in the NFL could always "make the best use" of his carries, but if they end up being limited all the time he's ultimately not going to produce much.For the purposes of this thread, I might be willing to entertain the notion that this game showed a "good performance" even though fantasy-wise it was not a great week.

 

[Donnybrook]

If Parker ran for 4 more TDs last year, his stats would be similar to Steven Jackson's

 

[Bri]

cleverly masked "please let him fall by August" thread?

 

[Jous]

I think Parker would be a very good pickup, but I wouldn't invest too highly with him. He is EXTREMELY raw of a player, but he has speed and good receiving skills. He needs to develop vision as a runner. If he develops right, he could be another Tomlinson. If he doesn't, he could be another Michael Bennet

 

[broncofan13000]

Willie Parker, aka FWP, is currently ranked the #20 RB in Antsports ADP typically going early round 3 ahead of guys like Deuce McAllister, Warrick Dunn, Corey Dillon, Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones, Deshaun Foster, etc.

I'm not against drafting FWP altogether. If he's available in the 5th or 6th round, I'll probably take him. But there's just no way that I'd take him over the other talent available in rounds 3 and 4 and I can't honestly see why his ADP is so high right now.

You would pick all those backs ahead of FWP? Deuce will be splitting carries; Benson and TJ will make you lock up two picks in the first 6 rounds, Foster is an injury waiting to happen...you can make a case for Dunn and Dillon though...

 

[mlball77]

I think Parker would be a very good pickup, but I wouldn't invest too highly with him. He is EXTREMELY raw of a player, but he has speed and good receiving skills. He needs to develop vision as a runner. If he develops right, he could be another Tomlinson. If he doesn't, he could be another Michael Bennet

I would point out that if Bennett could ever have stayed healthy, he would have had several very good years of ff production... and as far as I've seen/heard, FWP doesn't have nearly the durability/inj issues that Bennett has. Point being, if the low end of Parker's talent is comparable to Bennett, he should be good... as Bennett was quite talented in his prime, just oft-injured... and the inj issues aren't nearly the concern for FWP, in my view.Originally this offseason, I wasn't as high on FWP, but it seems like he could be the primary RB in Pitt for the next couple of years, and if he gets going more in the passing game, he could really be a good ff producer. I don't ever see him being a big TD scorer, but yards should be good. I do think he'll be a hit and miss player from week to week though (inconsistent).

 

[JAA]

I dont care about FWPs ability. I really care about locking up the Pit running game. Someone has to get the yards. Talent doesnt get you anything once you are in the NFL, opportunity gets you everything.

 

[Patoons]

Talent doesnt get you anything once you are in the NFL,

I'd think it'd get you a longer career and most likely pretty successful.

 

[David Yudkin]

From what I've seen/read, it looks like Staley gets first shot at Bettis' role and Haynes would take over if (once?) Staley got hurt. I do not believe that the plan is to give Parker the short yardage or goal line carries, so I would look at him as a decent yardage guy with few TD. I also don't think his workload goes through the roof, so I would look at last year as similar to what to expect this year. Maybe 1,500 total yards and howver many TD he can break off (6?).

 

[ravnzfan]

I dont care about FWPs ability. I really care about locking up the Pit running game. Someone has to get the yards. Talent doesnt get you anything once you are in the NFL, opportunity gets you everything.

...and here's why JAA and ravnzfan feel this way:Case study on "How to be successful in the NFL....Pittsburgh Steeler version"

in 5 of the last 6 season's the Pittsburgh Steelers have led the NFL in rushing attempts 3X's, and finished 2nd and 3rd once each

combined record?

58-21-1

avg carries/season.....558

avg yardage/season..2365

avg TD's/season.........18

the lone season where Pittsbugh did not finish in the top 3 in rushing attempts ('03), they finished 6-10

middle of the pack in attempts (446-17th), but 31st in yardage w/1488

I'm going to go out on a limb here and figure on the Steelers sticking w/what got 'em here---running the football...

...and until firther notice, that includes rostering FWP, whenever "the price is right"

 

[Routilla]

FWP- learn it, know it, live it.

 

[David Yudkin]

I dont care about FWPs ability.  I really care about locking up the Pit running game.  Someone has to get the yards. Talent doesnt get you anything once you are in the NFL, opportunity gets you everything.

...and here's why JAA and ravnzfan feel this way:Case study on "How to be successful in the NFL....Pittsburgh Steeler version"

in 5 of the last 6 season's the Pittsburgh Steelers have led the NFL in rushing attempts 3X's, and finished 2nd and 3rd once each

combined record?

58-21-1

avg carries/season.....558

avg yardage/season..2365

avg TD's/season.........18

the lone season where Pittsbugh did not finish in the top 3 in rushing attempts ('03), they finished 6-10

middle of the pack in attempts (446-17th), but 31st in yardage w/1488

I'm going to go out on a limb here and figure on the Steelers sticking w/what got 'em here---running the football...

...and until firther notice, that includes rostering FWP, whenever "the price is right"

It's clear that the Steelers will run the ball, but it's interesting that even with all those rushing attempts, their #1 RB in those seasons ranked 26th, 18th, and 15th. One would have expected that with a team workload that exceeded the likes of KC and DEN that someone would have done a lot better individually given the circumstances.

 

[ChampBailey24]

I'm not saying FWP is great but he's not as bad as you're saying. And he didn't get only 5 good games. He was good game 7, 12, 14. He didn't get a lot of yards because he didn't get more carries but he still played well.

 

[Alluro]

Willie Parker will get 2000 yds this year ! Last year was just the tip of the iceburg. Speed Kills !

 

[Highway Robbery]

FWP is the greatest.

Check this out at the 1 minute mark:

http://play.rbn.com/?url=/nfl/nfl/open/nfl...ontextwidth=500

 

[coolnerd]

I just pulled up two random leagues from last year Parker ranked 15th and 17th with Cadillac actually ranking two spots behind him in both. He will at minimum have the same type of role with the Steelers this year. His average draft position is 20. Assuming health, looks to me like his draft position if anything is slightly low given his performance last year, the history of the Steeler running the ball, and the trust that organization has in him in the fact they did not bring in a RB with more "talent."

As for all of the stuff about number of good versus bad games, this is what you get from RBs who are not the 5 or so elite in the league. Most of them are inconsistent, likely having thier best games against average or worst defenses. The guy who ranks in the teens because he scores 10 or 11 points a week no matter the opponent is the exception not the rule.

 

[Bri]

Talent doesnt get you anything once you are in the NFL,

I'd think it'd get you a longer career and most likely pretty successful.

ya need opportunity

 

[Slinger]

I'm still waiting for someone to build a case against FWP.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Leaving the game against the Seahawks off the list seems disingenuous. There are a few other puzzling things from this post:

1) Why it matters how Parker did against specific teams (i.e., bad teams vs. good teams)?

2) Why we're ranking defenses by yards allowed, and not rushing yards allowed, FPs allowed to opposing RBs, or some other metric.

3) Why the Falcons (26th in rushing yards allowed, 31st in rushing YPC allowed) are bolded.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not touching FWP in ppr's...he's going too early.

 

[Bears_Man2]

Parker's going about where he should. I think he's more likely to be used like Tatum Bell in the long-term than he is to be a long-term featured back.

He doesn't have much wiggle, goes down on first contact 95% of the time, and I don't believe the Pittsburgh running game is built to rely solely on a burner like Parker. Having a change of pace like Bettis (and perhaps Staley or Haynes can fill that role) greatly benefits Parker.

 

[mcd]

I've got Parker locked up in an Auction Keeper League for dirt cheap, but I'm still concerned. I watched him closely last year & there were stretches in most games that he just didn't look very effective. They would put Bettis in & he would run wild for a series or 2 & look great. Parker would re-enter & have a series where he hits 3 or 4, 8 to 10 yard runs & caps off what looks like a decent day. I don't think Staley or Haynes would be able to soften up a "D" like Bettis did. On the other hand, I also don't think they will be able to keep Parker on the bench the way Bettis did in some games. I'm hoping like many others that Parker will grow into the role, as he was a very raw RB last season. I'm also hoping Pitt will realize Parker could be a huge weapon on the screen pass & use him that way more often. Crossing my fingers that Willie has been working his butt off this off season.

 

[softball]

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 TB 14 14 290 1,178 6 25 20 81 0 181.9 13.0

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 PIT 15 15 255 1,202 4 24 18 218 1 190.0 12.7

Dare to guess who's on top??

Caddy, that's who. And in 2006, you can expect the same from each(IMHO)

Parker is yardage based performer, and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets.....

Caddy is yardage based and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets....

I'll take FWP as RB #2 on my teams before I'll take Cadillac Williams as my #1.

 

[LHUCKS]

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 TB 14 14 290 1,178 6 25 20 81 0 181.9 13.0

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 PIT 15 15 255 1,202 4 24 18 218 1 190.0 12.7

Dare to guess who's on top??

Caddy, that's who. And in 2006, you can expect the same from each(IMHO)

Parker is yardage based performer, and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets.....

Caddy is yardage based and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets....

I'll take FWP as RB #2 on my teams before I'll take Cadillac Williams as my #1.

I love misleading stat comparisons.

 

[Capt Hook]

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 TB 14 14 290 1,178 6 25 20 81 0 181.9 13.0

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 PIT 15 15 255 1,202 4 24 18 218 1 190.0 12.7

Dare to guess who's on top??

Caddy, that's who. And in 2006, you can expect the same from each(IMHO)

Parker is yardage based performer, and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets.....

Caddy is yardage based and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets....

I'll take FWP as RB #2 on my teams before I'll take Cadillac Williams as my #1.

Gee, I dunno - that's pretty tough when one says TB and the other PIT

 

[softball]

RUSHING                              RECEIVING 

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005        TB 14 14 290 1,178 6      25 20    81    0 181.9  13.0

  RUSHING                              RECEIVING 

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005      PIT 15 15 255 1,202 4      24 18  218  1  190.0 12.7

Dare to guess who's on top??

Caddy, that's who. And in 2006, you can expect the same from each(IMHO)

Parker is yardage based performer, and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets.....

Caddy is yardage based and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets....

I'll take FWP as RB #2 on my teams before I'll take Cadillac Williams as my #1.

I love misleading stat comparisons.

Explain misleading?One guy had 290 carries, the other had 255. One had 20 rec. the other 18.

BTW- Guess who ? was kinda joking

But LHucks MUST explain what is misleading. Since he stated it.....

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 TB 14 14 290 1,178 6 25 20 81 0 181.9 13.0

RUSHING RECEIVING

Season Team G GS Att Yard TD Target Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2005 PIT 15 15 255 1,202 4 24 18 218 1 190.0 12.7

Dare to guess who's on top??

Caddy, that's who. And in 2006, you can expect the same from each(IMHO)

Parker is yardage based performer, and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets.....

Caddy is yardage based and his speed will help with the few recepts he gets....

I'll take FWP as RB #2 on my teams before I'll take Cadillac Williams as my #1.

Gee, I dunno - that's pretty tough when one says TB and the other PIT

Errict Rhett and Barry Foster?

 

[ravnzfan]

I dont care about FWPs ability.  I really care about locking up the Pit running game.  Someone has to get the yards. Talent doesnt get you anything once you are in the NFL, opportunity gets you everything.

...and here's why JAA and ravnzfan feel this way:Case study on "How to be successful in the NFL....Pittsburgh Steeler version"

in 5 of the last 6 season's the Pittsburgh Steelers have led the NFL in rushing attempts 3X's, and finished 2nd and 3rd once each

combined record?

58-21-1

avg carries/season.....558

avg yardage/season..2365

avg TD's/season.........18

the lone season where Pittsbugh did not finish in the top 3 in rushing attempts ('03), they finished 6-10

middle of the pack in attempts (446-17th), but 31st in yardage w/1488

I'm going to go out on a limb here and figure on the Steelers sticking w/what got 'em here---running the football...

...and until firther notice, that includes rostering FWP, whenever "the price is right"

It's clear that the Steelers will run the ball, but it's interesting that even with all those rushing attempts, their #1 RB in those seasons ranked 26th, 18th, and 15th. One would have expected that with a team workload that exceeded the likes of KC and DEN that someone would have done a lot better individually given the circumstances.

Pitt has shared the wealth, w/a Bettis seeing paydirt 9 or 10 X's on ~100 touches, as RB2 on the team---hell, he rarely scored that many as RB1...but this is not about what one would expect, given the number's....this is about given the Steelers character, what can we expect from FWP:

in decimal scoring system used by my Misfits leagues, FWP tied McGahee for 13th (or #1-RB2, if you want to look at it that way) in '05

I took FWP as RB5 in my local redraft, 97 overall, last season (THAT, ladies, is value---keep hating FWP, so I can take the #1-RB2 near the 100 spot again this year!! )

I see similar numbers for Parker this year---combined ~300 touches, for ~1500 yds and 6-8 TD's

he'll give you steady, if unspectacular, production week-in and week-out---a pretty good quality in a RB2

 

[JAA]

FWP is about value. No one is saying he is a top 10 back, but he is a solid RB3 with huge upside for his ADP.

Im considering going RB-RB-RB this season with how the ADPs are looking. I think a lot of the top 5 WRs will go in the first 2 rounds. If that happens, I think there might be better value in waiting for a WR and getting 3 RBs to start.

 

[jurb26]

It's funny to me really. When other rookie running backs that are more highly touted coming into the league put up numbers around 1200/5 in their first year as the starter (think KJ, Caddy) everyone touts them as the next big thing, because they're only going to get better. Yet, it seems to be the most oft-ignored point with Parker that the kid is even more raw than those guys and is very young with little experience and, like them (even moreso to a point since he's more raw), is only going to become better as a player than he was previously.

No, his numbers weren't daunting last year. They were only decent. But they were decent as his first year being the starting RB at the college or pro level. He's never had the attention of the coaches before, he's never had the in-game experience before. He's only going to get better as a player.

Yeah, thats great if your looking for your RB to improve his pass blocking, reading of blitzs, route running and overall capcity for the playbook. Those are things that I would consider the idiosyncrasies of playing RB. RB is a very instinctive position. You don't coach and can't teach things such as vision and patients. You also can't coach the physical abilities such as speed, foot turnover, balance, exceleration... ect. This is why RBs transition into the NFL so easily compared to other positions. It's almost a fools position in a sense and the saying "just run to daylight" comes to mind. Parkers greatest opportunities to improve come in his vision and patients IMO and I think anyone looking for some sort of quantum leap in that department are going to be disapointed. Sure, he'll do very well if giving the carries in the Pitt backfield. There are very few RBs or even back up RBs that couldn't handle that though. Parkers FF value will of course come down to the capacity in which Pitt decides to use him along with the other RBs. Pitt has a strong running game with a top notch Oline. Much Like Den, you can pretty much count on Pitt to run the ball effectivly regardless of who the RB.

 

[{Syrus}]

You don't coach and can't teach things such as vision and patients.

Parkers greatest opportunities to improve come in his vision and patients IMO

Apparently, "Fast" Willie Parker sped his way through medical school this off-season too.

 

[jurb26]

You don't coach and can't teach things such as vision and patients.

Parkers greatest opportunities to improve come in his vision and patients IMO

Apparently, "Fast" Willie Parker sped his way through medical school this off-season too.

Yes yes, long morning.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's funny to me really. When other rookie running backs that are more highly touted coming into the league put up numbers around 1200/5 in their first year as the starter (think KJ, Caddy) everyone touts them as the next big thing, because they're only going to get better. Yet, it seems to be the most oft-ignored point with Parker that the kid is even more raw than those guys and is very young with little experience and, like them (even moreso to a point since he's more raw), is only going to become better as a player than he was previously.

No, his numbers weren't daunting last year. They were only decent. But they were decent as his first year being the starting RB at the college or pro level. He's never had the attention of the coaches before, he's never had the in-game experience before. He's only going to get better as a player.

Yeah, thats great if your looking for your RB to improve his pass blocking, reading of blitzs, route running and overall capcity for the playbook. Those are things that I would consider the idiosyncrasies of playing RB. RB is a very instinctive position. You don't coach and can't teach things such as vision and patients. You also can't coach the physical abilities such as speed, foot turnover, balance, exceleration... ect. This is why RBs transition into the NFL so easily compared to other positions. It's almost a fools position in a sense and the saying "just run to daylight" comes to mind. Parkers greatest opportunities to improve come in his vision and patients IMO and I think anyone looking for some sort of quantum leap in that department are going to be disapointed. Sure, he'll do very well if giving the carries in the Pitt backfield. There are very few RBs or even back up RBs that couldn't handle that though. Parkers FF value will of course come down to the capacity in which Pitt decides to use him along with the other RBs. Pitt has a strong running game with a top notch Oline. Much Like Den, you can pretty much count on Pitt to run the ball effectivly regardless of who the RB.

So it is your intent to argue that a RB does not get better outside of non-FF duties after his first year? Can he not improve his instincts, improve his ability to hit the proper hole at the proper time and figure out when to cut it back, etc, improve his agility, adjust to the speed of the game, etc? I'm sorry, but that is a pretty absurd viewpoint.LT averaged 3.6ypc his rookie season. Did that improve so drastically because he became a better pass blocker? Where do you have Caddy ranked? I'm guessing higher than a RB that goes for 1150/6, correct? You obviously expect him to improve, and I highly doubt you see his pass blocking as the thing that's going to bring up his numbers.

I'll agree with you that RB is an easy transition to the NFL because it's much more dependent on natural talent and involves less learning than most positions. But that doesn't mean that players don't get better at playing the position with experience outside of learning how to block. Parker has had very very little experience playing against any high level of competition (be it college or NFL players), to think that he's not going to get significantly better as a player after gaining more and more experience playing against those types of players is fairly outrageous.

 

[Romulan]

I would not put any faith in any man named Willie... In fact if I had a Willie on my team I would trade him right away!

 

[Donnybrook]

Isidoros Strength - 12 team dyNASTYRB: Willie Parker, Reuben Droughns, Chester Taylor, Duce Staley

 

[jurb26]

It's funny to me really. When other rookie running backs that are more highly touted coming into the league put up numbers around 1200/5 in their first year as the starter (think KJ, Caddy) everyone touts them as the next big thing, because they're only going to get better. Yet, it seems to be the most oft-ignored point with Parker that the kid is even more raw than those guys and is very young with little experience and, like them (even moreso to a point since he's more raw), is only going to become better as a player than he was previously.

No, his numbers weren't daunting last year. They were only decent. But they were decent as his first year being the starting RB at the college or pro level. He's never had the attention of the coaches before, he's never had the in-game experience before. He's only going to get better as a player.

Yeah, thats great if your looking for your RB to improve his pass blocking, reading of blitzs, route running and overall capcity for the playbook. Those are things that I would consider the idiosyncrasies of playing RB. RB is a very instinctive position. You don't coach and can't teach things such as vision and patients. You also can't coach the physical abilities such as speed, foot turnover, balance, exceleration... ect. This is why RBs transition into the NFL so easily compared to other positions. It's almost a fools position in a sense and the saying "just run to daylight" comes to mind. Parkers greatest opportunities to improve come in his vision and patients IMO and I think anyone looking for some sort of quantum leap in that department are going to be disapointed. Sure, he'll do very well if giving the carries in the Pitt backfield. There are very few RBs or even back up RBs that couldn't handle that though. Parkers FF value will of course come down to the capacity in which Pitt decides to use him along with the other RBs. Pitt has a strong running game with a top notch Oline. Much Like Den, you can pretty much count on Pitt to run the ball effectivly regardless of who the RB.

So it is your intent to argue that a RB does not get better outside of non-FF duties after his first year? Can he not improve his instincts, improve his ability to hit the proper hole at the proper time and figure out when to cut it back, etc, improve his agility, adjust to the speed of the game, etc? I'm sorry, but that is a pretty absurd viewpoint.LT averaged 3.6ypc his rookie season. Did that improve so drastically because he became a better pass blocker? Where do you have Caddy ranked? I'm guessing higher than a RB that goes for 1150/6, correct? You obviously expect him to improve, and I highly doubt you see his pass blocking as the thing that's going to bring up his numbers.

I'll agree with you that RB is an easy transition to the NFL because it's much more dependent on natural talent and involves less learning than most positions. But that doesn't mean that players don't get better at playing the position with experience outside of learning how to block. Parker has had very very little experience playing against any high level of competition (be it college or NFL players), to think that he's not going to get significantly better as a player after gaining more and more experience playing against those types of players is fairly outrageous.

The only difference you and I seem to have, dispite your rant, is that you are expecting "significant" improvments (in his ability) where as I am not. Sure I think he'll improve. Most any player will with experience. At least until their body starts to break down. As I said though, I think expecting quantum leaps is not wise. As for LT, sure he had a low YPA his rookie year. Or did he? Here are his PYA in order by year: 3.6, 4.5, 5.3, 3.9, 4.3. Looks to me as if the 5.0+ YPA is the anomily, not the sub 4.0. Also, what about the coaching turnover he saw from his rookie year when Riley was coach to he next 4 with Shotty was coach. Does that play no part in how he was used/how effective?

Of course I see Caddy being better as far as the stats go next year. I'm not in the practice of predicting injuries and he played with one and missed games last year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's funny to me really. When other rookie running backs that are more highly touted coming into the league put up numbers around 1200/5 in their first year as the starter (think KJ, Caddy) everyone touts them as the next big thing, because they're only going to get better. Yet, it seems to be the most oft-ignored point with Parker that the kid is even more raw than those guys and is very young with little experience and, like them (even moreso to a point since he's more raw), is only going to become better as a player than he was previously.

No, his numbers weren't daunting last year. They were only decent. But they were decent as his first year being the starting RB at the college or pro level. He's never had the attention of the coaches before, he's never had the in-game experience before. He's only going to get better as a player.

Yeah, thats great if your looking for your RB to improve his pass blocking, reading of blitzs, route running and overall capcity for the playbook. Those are things that I would consider the idiosyncrasies of playing RB. RB is a very instinctive position. You don't coach and can't teach things such as vision and patients. You also can't coach the physical abilities such as speed, foot turnover, balance, exceleration... ect. This is why RBs transition into the NFL so easily compared to other positions. It's almost a fools position in a sense and the saying "just run to daylight" comes to mind. Parkers greatest opportunities to improve come in his vision and patients IMO and I think anyone looking for some sort of quantum leap in that department are going to be disapointed. Sure, he'll do very well if giving the carries in the Pitt backfield. There are very few RBs or even back up RBs that couldn't handle that though. Parkers FF value will of course come down to the capacity in which Pitt decides to use him along with the other RBs. Pitt has a strong running game with a top notch Oline. Much Like Den, you can pretty much count on Pitt to run the ball effectivly regardless of who the RB.

So it is your intent to argue that a RB does not get better outside of non-FF duties after his first year? Can he not improve his instincts, improve his ability to hit the proper hole at the proper time and figure out when to cut it back, etc, improve his agility, adjust to the speed of the game, etc? I'm sorry, but that is a pretty absurd viewpoint.LT averaged 3.6ypc his rookie season. Did that improve so drastically because he became a better pass blocker? Where do you have Caddy ranked? I'm guessing higher than a RB that goes for 1150/6, correct? You obviously expect him to improve, and I highly doubt you see his pass blocking as the thing that's going to bring up his numbers.

I'll agree with you that RB is an easy transition to the NFL because it's much more dependent on natural talent and involves less learning than most positions. But that doesn't mean that players don't get better at playing the position with experience outside of learning how to block. Parker has had very very little experience playing against any high level of competition (be it college or NFL players), to think that he's not going to get significantly better as a player after gaining more and more experience playing against those types of players is fairly outrageous.

The only difference you and I seem to have, dispite your rant, is that you are expecting "significant" improvments (in his ability) where as I am not. Sure I think he'll improve. Most any player will with experience. At least until their body starts to break down. As I said though, I think expecting quantum leaps is not wise. As for LT, sure he had a low YPA his rookie year. Or did he? Here are his PYA in order by year: 3.6, 4.5, 5.3, 3.9, 4.3. Looks to me as if the 5.0+ YPA is the anomily, not the sub 4.0. Also, what about the coaching turnover he saw from his rookie year when Riley was coach to he next 4 with Shotty was coach. Does that play no part in how he was used/how effective?

Of course I see Caddy being better as far as the stats go next year. I'm not in the practice of predicting injuries and he played with one and missed games last year.

Fair enough. I wouldn't say I'm expecting huge, magical improvements out of Parker though. What I'm looking at is a guy who finished as RB13 last year, has more room to improve than most young RBs since he's so much more raw, and is now in a better situation (Staley stealing carries instead of Bettis), and here we are with a post saying he's overrated as RB20.So he finished as RB13 last year, everything gets better this year, and he's overrated as RB20? How does that add up.

It seems most people who predict a similar situation to last year predict similar numbers, but I think it's fair (especially since again, he's so raw) to predict that given the same amount of work as last year he will put up better numbers (I'm not predicting 2000 yards or 12 TDs here by any means) than last year, where again he finished as RB13.

 

[jurb26]

Fair enough. I wouldn't say I'm expecting huge, magical improvements out of Parker though. What I'm looking at is a guy who finished as RB13 last year, has more room to improve than most young RBs since he's so much more raw, and is now in a better situation (Staley stealing carries instead of Bettis), and here we are with a post saying he's overrated as RB20.

So he finished as RB13 last year, everything gets better this year, and he's overrated as RB20? How does that add up.

It seems most people who predict a similar situation to last year predict similar numbers, but I think it's fair (especially since again, he's so raw) to predict that given the same amount of work as last year he will put up better numbers (I'm not predicting 2000 yards or 12 TDs here by any means) than last year, where again he finished as RB13.

Let me be very clear here. Parker is not IMO overrated as RB20. He is still scheduled to be the lead RB in Pitt and it appears with less (maybe only slightly but still less) competition for the carries. Any RB who is likely to get 200+ carries in the Pitt backfield is not overrated in the top 20 if you ask me. I'm just not expecting huge improvements is all. On top of that, I think Staley posses a much greater threat than a lot of people (Parker owners?) want to realize. If Staley can stay healthy then he is a very good RB. What kills Parkers fantasy value more than anything is the need to spell him with a big RB and that he doesn't get the GL looks. Otherwise, he is a very nice RB2.

 

[Donnybrook]

Any news on Parker’s contract negotiations?

As far as I know, Willie Parker is still an exclusive rights free agent. I am not anticipating a Gates type hold-out but you never know. James Harrison, Pittsburgh's other ERFA, signed several weeks ago.

 

[stbugs]

Fair enough.  I wouldn't say I'm expecting huge, magical improvements out of Parker though.  What I'm looking at is a guy who finished as RB13 last year, has more room to improve than most young RBs since he's so much more raw, and is now in a better situation (Staley stealing carries instead of Bettis), and here we are with a post saying he's overrated as RB20.

So he finished as RB13 last year, everything gets better this year, and he's overrated as RB20?  How does that add up.

It seems most people who predict a similar situation to last year predict similar numbers, but I think it's fair (especially since again, he's so raw) to predict that given the same amount of work as last year he will put up better numbers (I'm not predicting 2000 yards or 12 TDs here by any means) than last year, where again he finished as RB13.

Let me be very clear here. Parker is not IMO overrated as RB20. He is still scheduled to be the lead RB in Pitt and it appears with less (maybe only slightly but still less) competition for the carries. Any RB who is likely to get 200+ carries in the Pitt backfield is not overrated in the top 20 if you ask me. I'm just not expecting huge improvements is all. On top of that, I think Staley posses a much greater threat than a lot of people (Parker owners?) want to realize. If Staley can stay healthy then he is a very good RB. What kills Parkers fantasy value more than anything is the need to spell him with a big RB and that he doesn't get the GL looks. Otherwise, he is a very nice RB2.

jurb, don't forget that Parker wasn't even supposed to be the RB1 last year. It wasn't until Week 1 that it was for sure that Parker was starting because Bettis and Staley both were out.I think Parker spent the 2005 off-season and pre-season getting geared up to be a lighter, faster change of pace type back. I am not and never was an NFL RB, so I don't know for sure, but I would think that he wasn't prepped for the season as he is this year knowing that he is the RB1 in 2006.

 

[Chase Stuart]

So he finished as RB13 last year, everything gets better this year, and he's overrated as RB20? How does that add up.

For starters, he finished as RB15 at best in most leagues last year (he was RB15 in standard scoring and RB18 in PPR). If you aren't predicting RB injuries, you could easily have Parker projected with the exact same stats and have him finish outside your top 20 rankings.

 

[stbugs]

Leaving the game against the Seahawks off the list seems disingenuous. There are a few other puzzling things from this post:

1) Why it matters how Parker did against specific teams (i.e., bad teams vs. good teams)?

2) Why we're ranking defenses by yards allowed, and not rushing yards allowed, FPs allowed to opposing RBs, or some other metric.

3) Why the Falcons (26th in rushing yards allowed, 31st in rushing YPC allowed) are bolded.

The original poster lost me right there with his I will include the playoffs, but not the Super Bowl because only 3 of 4 playoff games back up my point. He might has well of dropped Week 1 and 2 since the defenses weren't ready yet.

Seems to me that a guy who finished RB15 in 2005 and should be better prepared to be the starter in Pitt (Staley was supposed to be the guy in 2005) is a good value drafted as RB20. Not much has changed in his situation except that he now has 1 year of starting under his belt and the primary TD vulture of Bettis is now gone. Everybody assumes that a new TD vulture will arise, but Staley/Hayes/Humes are not Bettis and it shouldn't be assumed that they will be as effective and get as many opportunities.

All in all, he just has to duplicate last year to already be a decent value.