Strategy question (1 Viewer)

[coltsnut]

In a situation where your opponent for that week has one or more players from the same team as one of your QBBC guys, do you lean towards starting the guy who will be throwing the ball to these guys, or in the other direction? For example, let's say your team owns Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, two mediocre QBs who are really a toss up for starting on your team any given week. On this particular week, your opponent owns Witten and D. Bryant... does this persuade you to start Kitna, with the thinking process being that in order for them to score, you will have to score too (especially in 6 pt qb td leagues). Or, do you sway towards hoping the Cowboys as a unit suck and go with the other guy?

 

[PolishNorbi]

In a situation where your opponent for that week has one or more players from the same team as one of your QBBC guys, do you lean towards starting the guy who will be throwing the ball to these guys, or in the other direction? For example, let's say your team owns Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, two mediocre QBs who are really a toss up for starting on your team any given week. On this particular week, your opponent owns Witten and D. Bryant... does this persuade you to start Kitna, with the thinking process being that in order for them to score, you will have to score too (especially in 6 pt qb td leagues). Or, do you sway towards hoping the Cowboys as a unit suck and go with the other guy?

If you are a favorite play Kitna, huge underdog play Freeman.

 

[coltsnut]

In a situation where your opponent for that week has one or more players from the same team as one of your QBBC guys, do you lean towards starting the guy who will be throwing the ball to these guys, or in the other direction? For example, let's say your team owns Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, two mediocre QBs who are really a toss up for starting on your team any given week. On this particular week, your opponent owns Witten and D. Bryant... does this persuade you to start Kitna, with the thinking process being that in order for them to score, you will have to score too (especially in 6 pt qb td leagues). Or, do you sway towards hoping the Cowboys as a unit suck and go with the other guy?

If you are a favorite play Kitna, huge underdog play Freeman.

Can you explain this, please?

 

[PolishNorbi]

In a situation where your opponent for that week has one or more players from the same team as one of your QBBC guys, do you lean towards starting the guy who will be throwing the ball to these guys, or in the other direction? For example, let's say your team owns Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, two mediocre QBs who are really a toss up for starting on your team any given week. On this particular week, your opponent owns Witten and D. Bryant... does this persuade you to start Kitna, with the thinking process being that in order for them to score, you will have to score too (especially in 6 pt qb td leagues). Or, do you sway towards hoping the Cowboys as a unit suck and go with the other guy?

If you are a favorite play Kitna, huge underdog play Freeman.

Can you explain his, please?

My reasoning is simple.Take a scenario: You are favorite by 10 pts, 120-110. If Witten and Bryant explode, than you decrease your opponents players cause when they score you score. Basically wiping out players. Now you are a 90-120 underdog, and unless you have high ceilings elsewhere, if Kitna scores there is a good chance for Bryant and Witten wipe those points off the board and essentially you leaving no room to gain there. So if you are a huge underdog you are hoping for the Cowboys to self implode, and freeman rolls.

 

[coltsnut]

In a situation where your opponent for that week has one or more players from the same team as one of your QBBC guys, do you lean towards starting the guy who will be throwing the ball to these guys, or in the other direction? For example, let's say your team owns Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, two mediocre QBs who are really a toss up for starting on your team any given week. On this particular week, your opponent owns Witten and D. Bryant... does this persuade you to start Kitna, with the thinking process being that in order for them to score, you will have to score too (especially in 6 pt qb td leagues). Or, do you sway towards hoping the Cowboys as a unit suck and go with the other guy?

If you are a favorite play Kitna, huge underdog play Freeman.

Can you explain his, please?

My reasoning is simple.Take a scenario: You are favorite by 10 pts, 120-110. If Witten and Bryant explode, than you decrease your opponents players cause when they score you score. Basically wiping out players. Now you are a 90-120 underdog, and unless you have high ceilings elsewhere, if Kitna scores there is a good chance for Bryant and Witten wipe those points off the board and essentially you leaving no room to gain there. So if you are a huge underdog you are hoping for the Cowboys to self implode, and freeman rolls.

 

[coltsnut]

although, most leagues award more points for yardage at rb and te...so even if Witten and Bryant explode, they still could make up for that 10 pts advantage you had as the favorite simply by the yardage.

 

[rich2jb]

You play whoever you project to perform better. There's no logical reason not to do this unless you're taking into account who has a higher upside in the case that you need to swing for the fences. You go through your normal decision making process as if your opponent didn't have the receivers of any of the QBs you have. Otherwise you're just rolling the dice because it would be nice if what you ideally want to happen happens. But Kitna doesn't care that your fantasy team is facing another fantasy team with his receivers.

Of course, I'd pick Freeman as the better play regardless.

 

[PolishNorbi]

although, most leagues award more points for yardage at rb and te...so even if Witten and Bryant explode, they still could make up for that 10 pts advantage you had as the favorite simply by the yardage.

They can make up the points. But at the same time Witten and Bryant Points have an affect on Kitna pts. So all td's caught are wiped out clean, and your minimizing damage. However, in the reverse case witten and bryant catching tds off of kitna are minimizing your opponent's damage.

 

[coltsnut]

although, most leagues award more points for yardage at rb and te...so even if Witten and Bryant explode, they still could make up for that 10 pts advantage you had as the favorite simply by the yardage.

They can make up the points. But at the same time Witten and Bryant Points have an affect on Kitna pts. So all td's caught are wiped out clean, and your minimizing damage. However, in the reverse case witten and bryant catching tds off of kitna are minimizing your opponent's damage.

seems like since he has 2 wrs dependent on my qb...I'm at an advantage there.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

can we get one of these threads about this same topic pinned

Same answer - Start the guy that you think will score you the most points.

 

[PolishNorbi]

You play whoever you project to perform better. There's no logical reason not to do this unless you're taking into account who has a higher upside in the case that you need to swing for the fences. You go through your normal decision making process as if your opponent didn't have the receivers of any of the QBs you have. Otherwise you're just rolling the dice because it would be nice if what you ideally want to happen happens. But Kitna doesn't care that your fantasy team is facing another fantasy team with his receivers.Of course, I'd pick Freeman as the better play regardless.

This is an old strategy question with never a good answer but I will disagree. Witten and Bryant's score DEPEND on what Kitna does. Again, if your two QBs are projected to have the exact same score, and you need to control the damage opposing WR/TE might do then you need to play Kitna. Straight number projections are stupid. There is tooo much variance in football and realistically ceilings and floors should be what is projected with a variance. IE; We project X to throw between 200/1 and 300/2 however the most likely projection is 250/2. At the same time Y is projected between 150/1 and 400/2 and most likely 250/2. Basically saying Y and X are identical in projections, but Y has way more upside the X with little risk in terms of floors. I am not talking about random numbers they may hit but a realistic range.

 

[rich2jb]

You play whoever you project to perform better. There's no logical reason not to do this unless you're taking into account who has a higher upside in the case that you need to swing for the fences. You go through your normal decision making process as if your opponent didn't have the receivers of any of the QBs you have. Otherwise you're just rolling the dice because it would be nice if what you ideally want to happen happens. But Kitna doesn't care that your fantasy team is facing another fantasy team with his receivers.Of course, I'd pick Freeman as the better play regardless.

This is an old strategy question with never a good answer but I will disagree. Witten and Bryant's score DEPEND on what Kitna does. Again, if your two QBs are projected to have the exact same score, and you need to control the damage opposing WR/TE might do then you need to play Kitna. Straight number projections are stupid. There is tooo much variance in football and realistically ceilings and floors should be what is projected with a variance. IE; We project X to throw between 200/1 and 300/2 however the most likely projection is 250/2. At the same time Y is projected between 150/1 and 400/2 and most likely 250/2. Basically saying Y and X are identical in projections, but Y has way more upside the X with little risk in terms of floors. I am not talking about random numbers they may hit but a realistic range.

Nowhere was the condition set that the 2 players were projected to have the same exact score. The owner is playing QBBC, but did not say he projects them to perform equally. That being the case, I stand by my logic. To make it a little more explicit, let's say Kitna was playing away at the Steelers and Freeman was playing home vs the Bills. Would you still prefer to start Kitna to "cancel" out Witten/Bryant? I would hope not. It's a more extreme example to show a gap in projections, and sure the gap may be smaller in this instance, but I don't have these 2 players ranked equally this week.That being the case, I go with Freeman because I project him to have more points. It doesn't matter to me whether or not I'm favored.To your point though, if they were equally ranked this week I see where you're coming from.

 

[Black]

No.

 

[b_taco]

never set your lineup based on who your opponent is starting

 

[PolishNorbi]

You play whoever you project to perform better. There's no logical reason not to do this unless you're taking into account who has a higher upside in the case that you need to swing for the fences. You go through your normal decision making process as if your opponent didn't have the receivers of any of the QBs you have. Otherwise you're just rolling the dice because it would be nice if what you ideally want to happen happens. But Kitna doesn't care that your fantasy team is facing another fantasy team with his receivers.Of course, I'd pick Freeman as the better play regardless.

This is an old strategy question with never a good answer but I will disagree. Witten and Bryant's score DEPEND on what Kitna does. Again, if your two QBs are projected to have the exact same score, and you need to control the damage opposing WR/TE might do then you need to play Kitna. Straight number projections are stupid. There is tooo much variance in football and realistically ceilings and floors should be what is projected with a variance. IE; We project X to throw between 200/1 and 300/2 however the most likely projection is 250/2. At the same time Y is projected between 150/1 and 400/2 and most likely 250/2. Basically saying Y and X are identical in projections, but Y has way more upside the X with little risk in terms of floors. I am not talking about random numbers they may hit but a realistic range.

Nowhere was the condition set that the 2 players were projected to have the same exact score. The owner is playing QBBC, but did not say he projects them to perform equally. That being the case, I stand by my logic. To make it a little more explicit, let's say Kitna was playing away at the Steelers and Freeman was playing home vs the Bills. Would you still prefer to start Kitna to "cancel" out Witten/Bryant? I would hope not. It's a more extreme example to show a gap in projections, and sure the gap may be smaller in this instance, but I don't have these 2 players ranked equally this week.That being the case, I go with Freeman because I project him to have more points. It doesn't matter to me whether or not I'm favored.To your point though, if they were equally ranked this week I see where you're coming from.

Again in that scenario it depends if I stand. If the rest of my players are projected to do 10+ pts than I might roll with Kitna in the case Kitna explodes for Witten/Bryant. If I was underdog in that case, I would roll with Freeman because I know Freeman SHOULD score more points. Nothing is guarantees as this is the NFL where the saints lose to the cards and beat the steelers. It really depends on the scenario.If you are favored by 30+ pts and Kitna faces Steelers, Freeman faces Bills why wouldn't you roll out Kitna? If some how Kitna explodes and throws where Witten/Bryant combines to 250/4 you are okay. If Witten/Bryant combine for 5 pts, you are still okay. Either way, rolling that way when you are favorite makes sense because you limit 2 players hopeful explosions. Just like last week, only reason I picked up Stafford was because I was facing Calvin. Guess what? Calvin got 3 tds and they were all offset by Stafford.

 

[PolishNorbi]

never set your lineup based on who your opponent is starting

Why not? The rules of the game are simple. To win the game, you must score more points than YOUR OPPONENT. Why shouldn't they factor into your choices? I am not saying Brees gets benched over Max Hall, but some scenario call for it. Simply, doesn't matter if you score 31 pts if your opp scores 30, you still win. If you score 199 pts and 3rd best score scores 99pts, doesn't matter if your opponent scores 200. Your opponent has EVERYTHING to do with your overcome. This is false thinking "Score the most point you can", proper thinking is "Score more points than your opponent"