During the season, "fantasy points against" is an important tool in making lineup decisions and evaluating a player's value for the remainder of the season. But what about at the beginning of the season, when all we have are last year's stats? How much weight should one put on strength of schedule based on last year's data? How consistent can we expect defenses to be against the rush or pass from one year to the next? Are the five toughest D's against RB's last year likely to all be nightmare matchups again this year? Or do defenses rise and fall so much that computing this year's strength of schedule based on last year's data is a fool's game?
Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule shows Drew Brees facing a dramatic shift from an easy fantasy QB schedule last year to one of the toughest schedules this year (-12%). To what extent is this likely to be true when we look back on 2013? Has anyone done an analysis of the volatility of defenses from year to year?
Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule shows Drew Brees facing a dramatic shift from an easy fantasy QB schedule last year to one of the toughest schedules this year (-12%). To what extent is this likely to be true when we look back on 2013? Has anyone done an analysis of the volatility of defenses from year to year?
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