Stud QBs instead of stud RBS? (1 Viewer)

[Da Guru]

Make no mistake the NFL is a passing league.

With all the RBBCs and other than a few studs the RBs are very mediocre, while the some QBs and WRs seem to be the marquee players.

Instead of RBs going the first 10-15 spots there will be a couple of QBs and WRs in the mix due to the lack of quality RBs.

Next year you will have LT, Addai (if healthy) LJ??? ADP..Gore maybe? Parker maybe? Where have all the studs gone?

Brady, Palmer, Manning,

Moss, TJ, CJ, To, S. Smith..all look better than the #6-12 RBs.

 

[tbbucs4eva]

Make no mistake the NFL is a passing league. With all the RBBCs and other than a few studs the RBs are very mediocre, while the some QBs and WRs seem to be the marquee players.Instead of RBs going the first 10-15 spots there will be a couple of QBs and WRs in the mix due to the lack of quality RBs.Next year you will have LT, Addai (if healthy) LJ??? ADP..Gore maybe? Parker maybe? Where have all the studs gone?Brady, Palmer, Manning,Moss, TJ, CJ, To, S. Smith..all look better than the #6-12 RBs.

wouldnt it depend on if its a ppr league? i'm doing very well in a league right now with my rb's leading the way, i think it would just depend on which one you get.

 

[Gr00vus]

I'd think Barber and Kevin Jones will end up looking like 1st round picks next year. Possibly Jones-Drew and Bush if they can keep up their current productivity levels. If Parker can cash in some TDs by years end he'll stay a 1st rounder. I think people will gamble on Michael Turner in the 1st round next year depending on where he lands. Brady has probably moved himself up into the first round, so one running back will drop, but I don't know what receivers have made themselves bonafide 1st round picks so far. If anything there's been a measure of instability there as well. Maybe McGahee.

Too early to tell.

 

[redman]

The major problem this year is injuries. If you have two healthy starting RB's which get a preponderance of their team's handoffs, then you're sitting pretty right now.

 

[GoBirds]

WESTBROOK

 

[Notinuse]

The major problem this year is injuries. If you have two healthy starting RB's which get a preponderance of their team's handoffs, then you're sitting pretty right now.

You would think so, but I have Alexander and Benson.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

LT

Addai

westy

bush

ADP

MJD

Willis

MB3

Gore

LJ

Sjax

Here are your round1 RB's next year in no particular order

 

[redman]

LTAddaiwestybushADPMJDWillisMB3GoreLJSjaxHere are your round1 RB's next year in no particular order

No Portis or Parker?

 

[redman]

The major problem this year is injuries. If you have two healthy starting RB's which get a preponderance of their team's handoffs, then you're sitting pretty right now.

You would think so, but I have Alexander and Benson.

Yeah, that sucks, but they're 20 & 21 in non-PPR, and 21 & 23 in PPR. They're better than their ranks, though, because some guys ahead of them are injured, and so you can still compete with that; you also are avoiding the inefficiencies of RBBC when you miss good weeks because you guessed wrong with guys like LenDale.

 

[remote controller]

Great!!! More backs for me! Seriously though, guys say this every year then grab a back anyway. I wish they'd just stick to their guns once and leave the backs for me in the first 2 rounds!

 

[Jimmy James]

When I first entered this pursuit, people were projecting the end of the stud RB.

When I teach the game to my grandchildren decades from now, they'll still be projecting the end of the stud RB.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

LTAddaiwestybushADPMJDWillisMB3GoreLJSjaxHere are your round1 RB's next year in no particular order

No Portis or Parker?

it was off the top of my head, I like williep, Portis probably not

 

[Andy Herron]

Make no mistake the NFL is a passing league. With all the RBBCs and other than a few studs the RBs are very mediocre, while the some QBs and WRs seem to be the marquee players.Instead of RBs going the first 10-15 spots there will be a couple of QBs and WRs in the mix due to the lack of quality RBs.Next year you will have LT, Addai (if healthy) LJ??? ADP..Gore maybe? Parker maybe? Where have all the studs gone?Brady, Palmer, Manning,Moss, TJ, CJ, To, S. Smith..all look better than the #6-12 RBs.

Thank you.Darn right it's a passing league. This has been evolving over time, and arrived about two years ago and still growing.I bet somebody years ago that we may very well not live to see Emmitt Smith's rushing record(18,355) broken.The league is no longer conducive to it. Think about it. LT? He was only halfway there entering the season(9,176), and he's 28. Anybody else? There are only 4 other active players in the top 25.List is current as of the start of the 2007 NFL season. 1. Emmitt Smith - 18,3552. Walter Payton - 16,7263. Barry Sanders - 15,2694. Curtis Martin - 14,1015. Jerome Bettis - 13,6536. Eric Dickerson - 13,2597. Tony Dorsett - 12,7398. Jim Brown - 12,3129. Marshall Faulk - 12,27910. Marcus Allen - 12,24311. Franco Harris - 12,12012. Thurman Thomas - 12,07413. John Riggins - 11,35214. Corey Dillon - 11,23815. O.J. Simpson- 11,23616. Ricky Watters - 10,64317. Tiki Barber - 10,44918. Eddie George - 10,44119. Edgerrin James* - 10,38520. Ottis Anderson - 10,27321. Fred Taylor* - 9,51322. Warrick Dunn* - 9,46123. Earl Campbell - 9,40724. LaDainian Tomlinson* - 9,17625. Shaun Alexander* - 8,713 * still activeI rest my case.

 

[DropKick]

There are some scoring systems that are RB centric and others that are not. My problem with the "theory" is that so many people believe the dogma to be true regardless of the scoring system. I have a hard time taking a marginal RB2 when there are elite WRs or QBs on the board.

In light of the heavy injuries this year, stud RB took it on the chin a bit. But, I don't see that causing a real change to early round draft strategies. More likely some (the open minded few?) will consider taking backups a little earlier in the draft. I recall a lot of people claiming they "were above" taking backups too early; Seems like common sense to me to handcuff promising backups from the better running teams.

 

[turleyfan]

I bet somebody years ago that we may very well not live to see Emmitt Smith's rushing record(18,355) broken.

Haven't you been watching ESPN? Adrian Peterson is going to break every record. Stay with us now.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

The major problem this year is injuries. If you have two healthy starting RB's which get a preponderance of their team's handoffs, then you're sitting pretty right now.

I've had that all year. 2-5. Either I am the exception to the rule (again) or it's all up to the stars.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

There are some scoring systems that are RB centric and others that are not. My problem with the "theory" is that so many people believe the dogma to be true regardless of the scoring system. I have a hard time taking a marginal RB2 when there are elite WRs or QBs on the board. In light of the heavy injuries this year, stud RB took it on the chin a bit. But, I don't see that causing a real change to early round draft strategies. More likely some (the open minded few?) will consider taking backups a little earlier in the draft. I recall a lot of people claiming they "were above" taking backups too early; Seems like common sense to me to handcuff promising backups from the better running teams.

I did my two back-ups early this year. Caddy and Brandon Jacobs. Again the exception to the rule that you are touting.

 

[boneman2]

I bet somebody years ago that we may very well not live to see Emmitt Smith's rushing record(18,355) broken.

Haven't you been watching ESPN? Adrian Peterson is going to break every record. Stay with us now.

Barry had a much better shot at making the record untouchable. A few others left well before their time too ( Brown , Sayers & TD ), so you never know..I think the record could be broken if a team can assemble an offensive line similar to the great Cowboy lines throughout the nineties. For example, if Minnesota focuses on their o-line, for the sake of ADP, he could do it. Of cours this task would have been much easier to achieve if he had entered after his freshman year.

 

[Gr00vus]

Darn right it's a passing league. This has been evolving over time, and arrived about two years ago and still growing.I bet somebody years ago that we may very well not live to see Emmitt Smith's rushing record(18,355) broken.The league is no longer conducive to it. Think about it. LT? He was only halfway there entering the season(9,176), and he's 28.....I rest my case.

It took Smith 15 seasons to put up those yards, in his first six seasons he'd totalled 8856 yards rushing. Payton took 13 seasons to compile his stats, he had 8386 rushing yards in his first six seasons.In his first six seasons LaDainian has put up 9176 rushing yards. If he makes it to 13 or 15 seasons, he has a very good chance to break the record.Using career rushing stats to prove a point about the league being a passing league now is a mistake. I unrest your case. It's there, but saying no one will break Smith's record in your lifetime is a non sequitur.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Darn right it's a passing league. This has been evolving over time, and arrived about two years ago and still growing.I bet somebody years ago that we may very well not live to see Emmitt Smith's rushing record(18,355) broken.The league is no longer conducive to it. Think about it. LT? He was only halfway there entering the season(9,176), and he's 28.....I rest my case.

It took Smith 15 seasons to put up those yards, in his first six seasons he'd totalled 8856 yards rushing. Payton took 13 seasons to compile his stats, he had 8386 rushing yards in his first six seasons.In his first six seasons LaDainian has put up 9176 rushing yards. If he makes it to 13 or 15 seasons, he has a very good chance to break the record.Using career rushing stats to prove a point about the league being a passing league now is a mistake. I unrest your case. It's there, but saying no one will break Smith's record in your lifetime is a non sequitur.

I agree LT is the one active player with a chance (save ADP). Emmitt is even on record saying that he is worried about LT doing it.With LT being 28, I want to see if he hits the 30 year wall in a couple seasons

 

[cliffhuxtible]

I play in two TD - ONLY keeper leagues, one of which has been around for fifteen years. As you all know, RB's have long been the bread and butter of these leagues. Added to the fact that we play with pre- designated offensive formations (start either 3rb/1wr, 2rb/2wr, or 1rb/ 3wr), and it's not surprising that historically, a team starting 3 solid rb's and 1 wr have dominated this setup.

So far this year, the top four TD leaders are wide receivers.

7 of the top ten TD leaders are wide receivers. One is a TE (Dallas Clark).

Only 2 are running backs.

Now, this could eventually correct itself, as seven games in one season hardly constitutes a long term trend.

But, at the end of the regular season in 2006, 8 of the top 10 TD leaders were RB's, including all of the top 7.

In 2005, 8 of the top 10 TD leaders were RB's, including the top 6.

In 2004, 7 of the top 10 TD leaders were RB's.

In 2003, 10 of the top 10 TD leaders were RB's.

Couple this with the fact that through seven weeks:

Stephen Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Lawrence Maroney, and Thomas Jones have 0 rushing TD's.

Willie Parker and Travis Henry have 1 TD each.

Sean Alexander, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, and Brian Westbrook have 2 TD's.

And it's not hard to see why people in TD heavy leagues are feeling the heat. That's a lot of first and second round talent.

In one of these leagues, I began the year starting WILLIE PARKER, SEAN ALEXANDER, and TRAVIS HENRY. I felt pretty good about that, as I'm sure many of you would. That team is 0-7, and it hasn't even been close.

 

[redman]

The major problem this year is injuries. If you have two healthy starting RB's which get a preponderance of their team's handoffs, then you're sitting pretty right now.

I've had that all year. 2-5. Either I am the exception to the rule (again) or it's all up to the stars.

Ditto for me. I have Portis and Parker. My record is likely flipped, or at least 4-3 if I'd not insisted upon starting McNabb weeks 1-2, and then Campbell week 3. It took me four weeks to start Romo! In other words, it wasn't my RB's that have killed me.

 

[SSOG]

Make no mistake the NFL is a passing league. With all the RBBCs and other than a few studs the RBs are very mediocre, while the some QBs and WRs seem to be the marquee players.Instead of RBs going the first 10-15 spots there will be a couple of QBs and WRs in the mix due to the lack of quality RBs.Next year you will have LT, Addai (if healthy) LJ??? ADP..Gore maybe? Parker maybe? Where have all the studs gone?Brady, Palmer, Manning,Moss, TJ, CJ, To, S. Smith..all look better than the #6-12 RBs.

Geez, what the hell does Brian Westbrook have to do to get a little respect, here?

 

[Andy Herron]

Darn right it's a passing league. This has been evolving over time, and arrived about two years ago and still growing.I bet somebody years ago that we may very well not live to see Emmitt Smith's rushing record(18,355) broken.The league is no longer conducive to it. Think about it. LT? He was only halfway there entering the season(9,176), and he's 28.....I rest my case.

It took Smith 15 seasons to put up those yards, in his first six seasons he'd totalled 8856 yards rushing. Payton took 13 seasons to compile his stats, he had 8386 rushing yards in his first six seasons.In his first six seasons LaDainian has put up 9176 rushing yards. If he makes it to 13 or 15 seasons, he has a very good chance to break the record.Using career rushing stats to prove a point about the league being a passing league now is a mistake. I unrest your case. It's there, but saying no one will break Smith's record in your lifetime is a non sequitur.

o.k., so I got a little carried away. It's just that the physical part of the game continues to increase, and injuries are bound to show up more frequently(hasn't this been a headline this year). Durability has become a major issue, thus bringing about the popular RBBC approach to gain more and more favor. You can count on one hand how many RBs have been able to steer clear of any kind of setback, and that's not to say they will be the same ones that will continue to steer clear from here on out. Free agency plays a part in this too. You can't keep "everybody" anymore(linemen, etc.).I'm 44, and feel pretty confident I won't see Emmitt's record broken while here on Earth. I'll be in a skybox somewhere.

 

[shader]

I think a stud wr is much more important than a solid rb.

You take some RB at the end of round one next year, and I'll take Moss, CJ, TO or some stud wr, and I'll be the one laughing to the bank.

Get studs on your team, not average rb's. Try that strategy and you'll win every time.

 

[tonydead]

I seem to remember reading something like this...might be in a magazine somewhere. There are only approx 10 starting RBs that are not RBBC. The stud WR or other move would be the better choice because there are a lot more RB2 because of RBBC in the later rounds. It sounds familiar., maybe why I'm winning my league. Thanks FBG.

 

[mdog1967]

I seem to remember reading something like this...might be in a magazine somewhere. There are only approx 10 starting RBs that are not RBBC. The stud WR or other move would be the better choice because there are a lot more RB2 because of RBBC in the later rounds. It sounds familiar., maybe why I'm winning my league. Thanks FBG.

Half a season, lets wait till it plays out. I think it will ebb and flow and some years more than others will have WR smacktarding the RB field.

 

[Skilo]

Geez, what the hell does Brian Westbrook have to do to get a little respect, here?

Stay healthy.

 

[Gr00vus]

I'm 44, and feel pretty confident I won't see Emmitt's record broken while here on Earth. I'll be in a skybox somewhere.

Unless you're planning on dying in seven years or less, I don't know why you'd feel confident about that. LaDainian will have broken it by then.

 

[nbanman]

Don't you guys all draft using VDB? The value of stud running backs comes from how you have to start 2 running backs a week, and there's so few that are worth starting. This is a bad year for RBs, but that just makes it all the greater if you have backs that produce.

And unpredictable as RBs are, I think WRs are more unpredictable. Looking at ADP on Antsports for the month of August, Moss was the 15th WR taken, Welker the 51st. Holt was the 3rd, Harrison the 4th.

It's easier to spot start WRs, and it's easier to play matchups. There's just so many more WRs that can make a difference on any given week. It makes a productive RB much more crucial for a successful team. Hence the early draft order.

 

[kashmoney]

I bet somebody years ago that we may very well not live to see Emmitt Smith's rushing record(18,355) broken.



agree with your sentiment..

but out of curiosity, how do you collect on that bet?

 

[HairySasquatch]

"but out of curiosity, how do you collect on that bet?"



You don't. Talk about the ultimate lose lose bet. But I'm sure you already knew that.

 

[el-gato-grande]

The NFL is a league of fads. Remember these?

46 defense - Buddy Ryan is a horse farmer now

West Coast Offense - Short passing game = Your QB doesn't have a strong arm and your WR's are old and/or slow footed

"Shut Down" Corner - Get your safety over there and help a guy out!

Run and Shoot - Want to get your QB killed?

Mobile Quarterbacks - Nobody wants to be compared right now to Mike Vick...

I'm not saying these things don't exist today. They do exist in different variations because the coaching trees that spawned them are still around. But, not every team is copying them as a blueprint for championship football. Now we have "RBBC" and "Spread Offenses" to add to that list. It will run its course, but then somebody will win with a stud RB pounding the rock 20-25 times a game and controlling the clock (like LT, LJ, or AD) and then everyone will be rushing out to get themselves one in the draft the next year.

This too shall pass people.

 

[Riffraff]

Also of note:

Winter is coming; teams will run more.

 

[JimboJim]

I'm 44, and feel pretty confident I won't see Emmitt's record broken while here on Earth. I'll be in a skybox somewhere.

Unless you're planning on dying in seven years or less, I don't know why you'd feel confident about that. LaDainian will have broken it by then.

Prior to the start of this season, LT (28 years old) would have to average the following rushing yards a season to break Emmitt's record9 seasons (36 years old) - 1020 yards8 seasons (35 years old) - 1147 yards7 seasons (34 years old) - 1311 yards6 seasons (33 years old) - 1529 yards5 seasons (32 years old) - 1835 yardsI'm not saying it's impossible, but I still think the chances are not in his favor.

 

[redman]

I'm 44, and feel pretty confident I won't see Emmitt's record broken while here on Earth. I'll be in a skybox somewhere.

Unless you're planning on dying in seven years or less, I don't know why you'd feel confident about that. LaDainian will have broken it by then.

Prior to the start of this season, LT (28 years old) would have to average the following rushing yards a season to break Emmitt's record9 seasons (36 years old) - 1020 yards8 seasons (35 years old) - 1147 yards7 seasons (34 years old) - 1311 yards6 seasons (33 years old) - 1529 yards5 seasons (32 years old) - 1835 yardsI'm not saying it's impossible, but I still think the chances are not in his favor.

Go check out Walter Payton's career path for the model that I think best fits LT's. He's been one of the most durable RB's in the league, and perhaps in league history given his workload. I think he breaks it in six to seven years.

 

[CalBear]

Why does this myth about RBBC keep getting repeated? There are more feature backs in the NFL than ever before.

 

[JimboJim]

I'm 44, and feel pretty confident I won't see Emmitt's record broken while here on Earth. I'll be in a skybox somewhere.

Unless you're planning on dying in seven years or less, I don't know why you'd feel confident about that. LaDainian will have broken it by then.

Prior to the start of this season, LT (28 years old) would have to average the following rushing yards a season to break Emmitt's record9 seasons (36 years old) - 1020 yards8 seasons (35 years old) - 1147 yards7 seasons (34 years old) - 1311 yards6 seasons (33 years old) - 1529 yards5 seasons (32 years old) - 1835 yardsI'm not saying it's impossible, but I still think the chances are not in his favor.

Go check out Walter Payton's career path for the model that I think best fits LT's. He's been one of the most durable RB's in the league, and perhaps in league history given his workload. I think he breaks it in six to seven years.

Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and think if anyone out there does have a chance, it is LT.However, prior to this season, his first six years in the league, he averaged 341 carries for 1530 rushing yards a season. No doubt, one of the greatest runs for a RB in NFL history. That being said, he did this from the ages of 22-27 while only missing one game in that span.That put him at 9176 rushing yards through his first six seasons. In order to break Emmitt's rushing mark in the next 6 or 7 years (now, at ages 28-33/34), he would have to match the production levels of his first six seasons with no more than a 15% drop off.Just saying...

 

[Sleeper 43]

I think we can add one full time RB in Marion Barber next year, JJ is a UFA after this season.

 

[CalBear]

In order to break Emmitt's rushing mark in the next 6 or 7 years (now, at ages 28-33/34), he would have to match the production levels of his first six seasons with no more than a 15% drop off.Just saying...

I would put LT's chances at breaking Emmitt's record at well below 50%, just because of the number of things which could stop him from getting there. But I think LT is in at least as good a situation as Emmitt was at the same point in his career. Someone will get the same combo of production and longevity; with improvements in medical care and longer careers, it should happen relatively soon. Rice's receiving yardage may be out of reach for a long time, but Smith's rushing yardage is reachable.

 

[Da Guru]

Brady, Big Ben, Romo.

Next years draft could look quite different.

 

[Tanner9919]

Make no mistake the NFL is a passing league. With all the RBBCs and other than a few studs the RBs are very mediocre, while the some QBs and WRs seem to be the marquee players.Instead of RBs going the first 10-15 spots there will be a couple of QBs and WRs in the mix due to the lack of quality RBs.Next year you will have LT, Addai (if healthy) LJ??? ADP..Gore maybe? Parker maybe? Where have all the studs gone?Brady, Palmer, Manning,Moss, TJ, CJ, To, S. Smith..all look better than the #6-12 RBs.

I agree..I think you might even see some WR's leapfrog some RB's, guys like T.O., AJ ( who just picked up where he left off in week 2), Moss, et al.RB is a volatile position, injuries are all too common, and O-lines are constantly in flux, good one year, lousy the next.Guys like Witten have been amazingly consistent this season, so he'll get some looks early in fantasy drafts.Matt Hasselbeck is a stud QB who is amazingly consistent now... its been a very strange year..