I am always amazed at how much some of the true studs go for in an auction format, 20 - 25 % for one player on your roster. Then I look at those teams that did it and lots of times they aren't so bad after all ! The person seems to have found value for the other positions imo. So I was wondering what you guys thought - no big deal to blow almost 25% of your salary cap on one player? It will be interesting as I am about to get into a dynasty ppr with 16 teams, and I am not sure there ARE 16 studs that even exist !!! Just wondering what the thoughts are...
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Studs vs. Duds (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter doctor_d
- Start date
Yeah, I've got a dynasty startup auction coming up and this has also been on my mind. This will be a salary/contract league and the idea of blowing 25% on one guy sounds a little scary. Especially when you're talking about making a 3 or 4 year commitment to that guy being on your team. I'm considering it but weary...
SmoovySmoov
The Way of the Samurai
Biggest letdown of a thread title EVER. I came in here expecting to read about Helen von Biscuits. 
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
I have done 3 auction startups with another on the way. I have yet to get one of the top 4 RB's in any league. If I am spending big money like that, its at WR, which I think is a safer and more long term investment. I do think it is key though that you get some studs. There is a ton of turnover in that 10-25 range at positions. You need to get some of those top 10 guys, and fill in the rest with high upside youngsters. Also in a startup auction, you can usually get players like Ocho Cinco, Ward, Mason, A. Bryant, etc for relatively cheap. Add a few of these guys to keep you competitive while your younger upside picks develop or until you make moves for other players.doctor_d said:
It really depends on the cost to cut a player. In one league that I am in, you have to 50% of the player's salary for each year he is under contract. In that league, I am very wary to sign big $$ contracts for many years. In another league, it only costs the 50% of the current year salary, so I don't worry as much. If the cost to cut a player is low, I think studs are worth huge salaries. It's not a straight-line VBD analysis for salaries. Those players that contribute to your starting lineup are worth a lot more than your bench guys, who are worth a lot more than those players are on the free agent waiver wire. You have to ratchet up salaries for those studs that you know you will start every week without hesitation if not injured. If it's a player that you might switch out for a match-up, that's not a stud, and he should go for less.Also, if you're good at spotting sleepers, you should invest heavily in the rare studs knowing that you can create a bench that is as good as the rest of the league's at the minimum league salary.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Biggest letdown of a thread title EVER. I came in here expecting to read about Helen von Biscuits.
If you're playing with contracts based upon the amount you spend it really changes the dynamic and I'd probably ignore many of the uber elite guys, especially those at running back. But you should really get at least one stud - mediocre filler is always going to be easy to find. Always go with one stud instead of two or three mediocre players. You'll be surprised if you start mocking things - and often find your team is a bit thin on depth but better looking overall if you splurge on a few studs. 
SSOG
Moderator
Studs are the key to winning in fantasy football. Everyone likes the "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it" cliche, but the reality is quite the opposite. Landing an uberstud can almost single-handedly carry a mediocre team to a title, while missing on an uberstud doesn't really hurt you all that much (other than that you now have one fewer opportunity to land an uberstud).
For example, last season Chris Johnson accounted for 197 VBD. That's as much as Tony Romo (QB6, 54 VBD), Steven Jackson (RB10, 48 VBD), Rashard Mendenhall (RB13, 35 VBD), and Vincent Jackson (WR10, 60 VBD) combined. A team of Jay Cutler, Chris Johnson, Tim Hightower, and Mario Manningham would have actually OUTSCORED a team of Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Vincent Jackson (890 vs. 889). Devoting 25% of your cap to a single player is a scary prospect, but if you hit on the uberstud and he performs like an actual uberstud, he'll more than justify the cost.
For example, last season Chris Johnson accounted for 197 VBD. That's as much as Tony Romo (QB6, 54 VBD), Steven Jackson (RB10, 48 VBD), Rashard Mendenhall (RB13, 35 VBD), and Vincent Jackson (WR10, 60 VBD) combined. A team of Jay Cutler, Chris Johnson, Tim Hightower, and Mario Manningham would have actually OUTSCORED a team of Tony Romo, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Vincent Jackson (890 vs. 889). Devoting 25% of your cap to a single player is a scary prospect, but if you hit on the uberstud and he performs like an actual uberstud, he'll more than justify the cost.
snellman
Footballguy
I am doing my first auction league this year and I went this exact route. I spent 50% of my cap on AD, CJ, Brees and Fitzgerald. I am going to have to do my best to find cheap players to fill out my roster and I will probably be in salary cap hell in a couple years, but IMO in a money league it is about the here and now.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
How in the world did you get all those players for 50% of your cap????I have done 3 auction league startups this year, all with a cap of $400 and those players go for on average around....
AD - 115
CJ - 120
Brees - 70
Fitz - 90
395
So basically in any league I have been in, those 4 players alone would have cost the entire budget. I'm really curious as to how you managed to get them all for 50% of the cap.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I ahve one auction league that I have played in for 4 or 5 years now. How you go about this may depend on length of time you are committed to players and what sort of turnover you have each season. In my league you can drop a high salary player at any time and he goes back into the free agent pool to be bid on by the other teams if they would like. We also typically have many teams releasing most of their players every year and rebidding on auction night into a large pool of available talent.
That being said I see the biggest mistake being made by teams is that they don't pull the trigger on a high bid for a truely elite player and then way overpay for players a couple of tiers down. They won't pay $45-$50 on a top 6 RB but they will pay $35-$40 on a guy who may not crack the top 20.
I also see teams that will spend almost all their cap on 3 studs and then have a bunch of $1-$2 players around them. These teams usually seem to compete until they hit an injury to a stud.
My experience has lead me to take an approach of trying to add a couple of elite players early and then wait for value much later in the auction. Certainly grab value when you see it but I see more reward late.
We also rotate nominating a name for auction and I will always try to nominate players I think will be oevr priced early in hopes that someone else will blow a lot of cap on an over rated player.
25% for an elite RB does not seem high to me. We see a few players go in that 30-35% range each year.
That being said I see the biggest mistake being made by teams is that they don't pull the trigger on a high bid for a truely elite player and then way overpay for players a couple of tiers down. They won't pay $45-$50 on a top 6 RB but they will pay $35-$40 on a guy who may not crack the top 20.
I also see teams that will spend almost all their cap on 3 studs and then have a bunch of $1-$2 players around them. These teams usually seem to compete until they hit an injury to a stud.
My experience has lead me to take an approach of trying to add a couple of elite players early and then wait for value much later in the auction. Certainly grab value when you see it but I see more reward late.
We also rotate nominating a name for auction and I will always try to nominate players I think will be oevr priced early in hopes that someone else will blow a lot of cap on an over rated player.
25% for an elite RB does not seem high to me. We see a few players go in that 30-35% range each year.
snellman
Footballguy
Dynasty League - $1000 cap. IDP, Player salaries increase 20% every year of contract, cap increases 20% every yearAD cost $141
CJ cost $156
Brees cost $101
Fitz cost $99
$497 total spent
Thanks to both for your replies. It would be interesting to know more about your leagues. In my league we will be starting a total of 21 players, 10 on offense and 11 IDP's. I would be very happy to get those 4 players or some of them for that price in your $1000 league. How many in your league?
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
I'm guessing the fact that it is IDP and a contract league drives prices down some. Thanks for posting that.
so you COULD just "straight line" your budget, as those guys will always account for the same total % of your cap... it's nice to have this type of discussion, as every league is inherently different, maybe some how. you found a league, where you were the only guy who LIKED those guys??
nice start,, oood luck...
Warpig
Footballguy
Actually, the player salaries increase 20% every year and our cap only goes up 10% every year. When we started our auction our cap was only increasing 5% every year!!! But commish bumped it to 10% to help out a little. And yes, you are gonna be in a horrible cap situation in a couple/few years and will be rebuilding most likely.However, I am envious of your team. Way to throw your sack out there and get the good players.
My plan was to get atleast 1 stud RB and 1 stud WR with an average QB and decent TE...which I think I accomplished getting MJD, Megatron, Eli Manning, and K. Winslow.
For the OP, as was already stated, in mine and Snellman's league our cap limit is $1,000 with player salaries increasing 20% every year. It is IDP and we must have atleast 42 players on our roster but can have up to 53 I believe.
You have what Snellman paid for his stud players so I'll show you how much I have spent on my roster so far:
Eli Manning - $73
Alex Smith - $30
MJD - $136
Darren McFadden - $56 (ouch!)
Calvin Johnson - $111
Jeremy Maclin - $69
Kellen Winslow - $31
Sabastian Janikowski - $5
Mario Williams - $31
OJ Atogwe - $12
Michael Griffin - $15 (not sure why I bid on him...but I got burned)
Most of the owners in our league paid a premium for a stud QB, RB, and/or WR and most of us will struggle to fill out our roster with any decent depth.
On the other side of the spectrum, there are a couple owners that are hoarding their money (Still have over $500 - $600 of their cap while the majority of us have between $200 and $400) and they have a subpar roster to show for it. Sure, all it takes is some injury and they could strike gold, but I wouldn't feel comfortable waiting for a player to get hurt before my players get a chance to perform...and that's only a temporary benefit. These owners will be forced to trade for good players when the other owners get into cap trouble because of how our pay structure is set up in our league. That's their strategy perhaps and one can see benefits to both.
As for now, most of our teams are pretty balanced as far as talent. The money is earned if you can get potential star players that are behind the curtains at the moment, for $1 or $2.
Warpig
Footballguy
Oh! And he traded his 2010 1st round rookie pick to get Brees. If it weren't for that he wouldn't of had a decent QB. You might say "ONLY" a 2010 rookie pick? But getting rid of Brees instantly cleared up $101 of cap space for the other owner. So it basically benefitted both sides.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Here is what I did in a nearly completed 12 team auction league. I have about 20 dollars left and will add some roster filler, but the meat of the team is here.
12 teams, $400 budget, must roster 24 players at auction
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF and 3 FLEX (RB/WR/TE). PPR 1 pt, 4 pts for passing TD's
Prices paid in parenthesis
QB
Eli Manning (18)
Matt Stafford (17)
In a 4 pt passing TD league I don't value QB as much, and don't want to spend more than about 10% of my budget here. I feel comfortable with my combo here. Have a solid QB1 with good upside in Eli, and a high upside backup in Stafford. For reference, notable other QB's.... Rodgers (69), Brees (70), P. Manning (48), Schaub (46), Rivers (42), Romo (45).
RB
Ryan Grant (35)
Montario Hardesty (25)
Michael Bush (14)
In a league where I am only required to start 1 RB, I don't focus too much on the position. I prefer to build at WR. Grant is a solid option who will put up points and I like the upside of my backups.
WR
Calvin Johnson (82)
Dez Bryant (66)
Hakeem Nicks (58)
Chad Ocho Cinco (26)
Chaz Schilens (7)
I prefer to build around a strong WR core in a PPR dynasty. More stability, more longevity. I was extremely happy to get my young WR core of Calvin-Dez-Nicks. I will be adding a few young upside WR's to the mix. Only thing I was unhappy about is I had targeted one of Ward/Driver/Mason/A. Bryant for around $5 or less and I wasn't able to make that happen.
TE
Zack Miller (9)
Jared Cook (7)
I was very happy with Miller at that price, considering Jermichael Finley went for $39. Cook is a good young high upside backup.
Overall I am happy with how it came out. There were a few guys that I really wanted but their prices ran way above what I had expected and they were no longer viable for me. Hopefully this helps you out in considering strategy.
12 teams, $400 budget, must roster 24 players at auction
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF and 3 FLEX (RB/WR/TE). PPR 1 pt, 4 pts for passing TD's
Prices paid in parenthesis
QB
Eli Manning (18)
Matt Stafford (17)
In a 4 pt passing TD league I don't value QB as much, and don't want to spend more than about 10% of my budget here. I feel comfortable with my combo here. Have a solid QB1 with good upside in Eli, and a high upside backup in Stafford. For reference, notable other QB's.... Rodgers (69), Brees (70), P. Manning (48), Schaub (46), Rivers (42), Romo (45).
RB
Ryan Grant (35)
Montario Hardesty (25)
Michael Bush (14)
In a league where I am only required to start 1 RB, I don't focus too much on the position. I prefer to build at WR. Grant is a solid option who will put up points and I like the upside of my backups.
WR
Calvin Johnson (82)
Dez Bryant (66)
Hakeem Nicks (58)
Chad Ocho Cinco (26)
Chaz Schilens (7)
I prefer to build around a strong WR core in a PPR dynasty. More stability, more longevity. I was extremely happy to get my young WR core of Calvin-Dez-Nicks. I will be adding a few young upside WR's to the mix. Only thing I was unhappy about is I had targeted one of Ward/Driver/Mason/A. Bryant for around $5 or less and I wasn't able to make that happen.
TE
Zack Miller (9)
Jared Cook (7)
I was very happy with Miller at that price, considering Jermichael Finley went for $39. Cook is a good young high upside backup.
Overall I am happy with how it came out. There were a few guys that I really wanted but their prices ran way above what I had expected and they were no longer viable for me. Hopefully this helps you out in considering strategy.
snellman
Footballguy
Here is a link to our league if you are interested in what players are going for:http://www8.myfantasyleague.com/2010/home/62372#0
As a disclaimer: This is the first auction I have ever done, so take my transactions with a grain of salt.
In response to Warpig, yes I traded My 1st round rookie pick for Brees along with Garrard (who I admittedly overpaid for) along with Aromashadu. I also got a 3rd round and 4th round rookie pick. My first round pick was the #9 so my thinking was If I could get a lock down every week starter at QB along with a couple other flyer picks, why not. The #9 pick is not going to get me a can't miss player and I am probably going to need late rookie picks to help fill out my roster.
Hey, thanks for the input, very interesting and should be helpful. Seems to me that you have done very well
Sorry to hijack, but I just had to say this: I hate leagues that increase the cap each year. For me, the point of escalating contracts and a fixed cap is to force roster turnover (keep the free agent pool stocked by more than just rookies) and tough decisions. An increasing cap just makes salaries more difficult to calculate and compare from year-to-year.
Topes
Footballguy
In my auction redraft, the studs usually go for 35-45% of cap, while the elite players (Faulk, James or Tomlinson in their prime) often go for 55% of cap.It's just the way it goes, always has been, and likely always will be (in that league).
How did you manage to spend 200% of your cap?Seriously, I see the magazines that have auction projections, and I've seent he auction projections in the FBG app. They're never anywhere near the curve I know from the two leagues I've been in. I suppose it's harder to get middling guys in a league that does stuff that way, but my philosophy is you spend about 75% on your starting lineup. Go heavy for the studs, and grab deals on bench players when everybody else runs out of steam. Sure, a lot of the #2 players go for too much, but that dumb money dries up. Be the last guy bidding, and fill your last 3-5 slots for minimum bid.In my league, it seems there are some people who perpetually fail to reach for the stars, never breaking the bank, get into bidding wars on their sleepers and pay too much for their bench. (I half wonder whether they're getting auction values from a magazine, rather than understanding the auction they are involved in.) These guys never win. Maybe one will get lucky one day. But, by and large, they barely make the playoffs.snellman said:
Of course, I could be reading you wrong on what a "true stud" is. I typically consider the top tier players at QB,RB,WR,TE to be true studs. There are only about a dozen each year. In a 12-team league, auction redraft, it's often not difficult to get three of these players. Let somebody else draft LenDale White.
The dynaty leauge I am in increases the cap each year 5% but the contracted players incerease 20%. The goal of the league is to simulate real life - you might approve of that. That way you cannot sit on players you orginally sign which would simulate the keeper leagues (in my experience)
I think we might agree on a true stud, and not to be negative, but I only see 1 WR true stud this year. YIKES... and that is not a good thing!!! QB changes, injuries and ages have me worried !!!!
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Not in my league.We're an auction-contract system where our yearly cap is $1000 each year. Multiyear-contracts increase in price each successive year. We also start 11 IDP's and have 53 man rosters. You also have cap hits (dead money) any time you cut a multi-year contract player.
On June 11th our rosters roll over to 2010 money.
Fitz will be getting paid $166.43.
Brees will be getting $208.95.
Peterson will be earning $340.00.
Johnson will be getting $17.33.
CJ was taken for $15.00 in our rookie auction and he's entering the last year of that deal. Whether his owner franchises him or he goes back into the free agent pool, he's going to go for $250-$300+ in 2011 unless something pretty bad happens to him this year.
CJ was recently traded for Ray Rice who is under contact at a price of $57.75. The upside for the new Rice owner is that Rice is under contract through 2012 and won't ever be more than $75.00 under that contract. New CJ owner was also the high bidder on Peterson in our franchise tag system so he is obviously making a push to win this year with a team he'll have to dismantle in 2011.
People sometimes tend to think the price of the player should be reflective of his PPG or total points. Our league has come around to the idea that the studs at a position are worth more than just a linear increase based on the difference in points they score over the next best player. He's giving you seperation at that position that the other owners have to make-up if they want to compete.
Coming in 2nd with a starting lineup that costs 50% of the winner's lineup doesn't get you any more credit than does finishing 2nd alone. In fact, it probably tells you that if you would have spent more on a stud to make up that point difference, you might be the champion right now.
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I agree 100%.The more money you print, the less your dollar buys. In a fictional closed system like a fantasy football league, all you do is inflate prices by the same % you increased the cap.
That's the best explanation I've heard, but I think the "simulate real life" aspect can go to far at times. For example, in one of my leagues, the commish insists on rules being fair to the hypothetical player's association (instead of changing rules to make the fake game more fun and interesting). I would trade real life simulation for a simpler and better economic system for the league, but I could see why some might prefer simulation.
Peterson at 340 is the kind of money I was afraid of, so that is a new salary number for him? That is certainly a huge difference in all of those stud salaries. What is the rest on AP's team like, does he have a decent all around team ?
chook
Footballguy
+1.Don't visit FBG as much as previous years, no FFA at all. Thought it might be some kind of awesome Shark Pool crossover.Biggest letdown of a thread title EVER. I came in here expecting to read about Helen von Biscuits.
