Suck for Luck? (1 Viewer)

[Hoss_Cartwright]

http://bayarea.sbnation.com/stanford-cardinal/2011/9/8/2413255/peyton-manning-surgery-colts-andrew-luck-nfl-draft-2012

Peyton Manning Surgery: Colts Topping The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes?

By David ***illo - Editor

Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning underwent surgery Thursday morning in a procedure that could sideline the franchise QB for at least two to three months. Discussion has begun that this places the Colts firmly in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes in the 2012 NFL Draft. Is there truth to this?

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Sep 8, 2011 - The 2012 NFL Draft is over seven months away, but with the start of college football, draft analysis is already underway. Big boards will change plenty over the next seven months, but for the moment it would appear that Stanford Cardinal QB Andrew Luck is the consensus number one pick. It is entirely possible that will change between now and April. Cam Newton was nowhere near the top of draft boards a year ago and look how much that changed. For now though, Andrew Luck is the guy Mel Kiper, mock drafts and many analysts consider the likely number one pick.

This is particularly pertinent here in early September as the Indianapolis Colts suddenly find themselves without their decade long starting quarterback Peyton Manning. The latest news reports are that Manning had surgery Thursday morning and could be out for at least two to three months. There are some more extended concerns depending on the type of surgery, but whatever the result, the Colts find themselves without their franchise QB until November at the earliest.

This loss naturally has raised the question of whether the Colts might suddenly find themselves in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. It has become a running subplot across the league that some teams might "Suck For Luck." Teams will never admit to tanking for a player, but if the right player comes along, certain football operations departments might not be so disappointed by losses.

A team like the Indianapolis Colts raises some questions in regards to whether they are in a position to draft Andrew Luck next spring. There have been some comparisons to the San Antonio Spurs who lost David Robinson the season prior to the Tim Duncan draft and happened to win the lottery that year. However, these Colts might be "too talented" to end up with a high enough pick for Luck. Even if Luck gets passed by a QB like Landry Jones and slips a few spots, I actually think the Colts could still be out of "luck" as I think they are looking at no worse than a middle of the road season in 2011.

Kerry Collins is fast approaching his last legs and is an obvious downgrade from a healthy Peyton Manning. But given the weapons at his disposal (Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, Austin Collie, etc), it's difficult to say where the Colts will land this season. They'll take a step backward but from 10-6, a realistic "bad" finish could be in the 5-11 or 7-9 range.

That would be a bad finish, but probably not enough to get up to the top of the draft board. Consider teams like Washington, Seattle and Buffalo? Cincinnati drafted Andy Dalton this past year, but if they had a shot at Luck do they make the pick? That also doesn't factor in all the teams that could potentially make a deal with the number one pick.

There are so many possibilities that we could see some seriously high drama as the season unfolds. If Luck has built on his number one pick potential, do we see some tanking the likes of which we saw in the NBA when Tim Duncan was available?

 

[pantherclub]

Is Manning really the difference between a playoff team and a 1 win team? If so then that makes Luck that much more valuable however I dont think thats the case. The Colts still have a lot of talent.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Is Manning really the difference between a playoff team and a 1 win team? If so then that makes Luck that much more valuable however I dont think thats the case. The Colts still have a lot of talent.

I know the Colts pretty good and I will tell you they definitely will suck enough for Luck. Without Manning they won't win 3 games. I also wouldn't put it past the Colts to tank. I hope they do tank.

 

[Donsmith753]

 

[CalBear]

This belongs in this thread.

 

[massraider]

Nonsense.

I will take anyone's money:

If Manning misses every game this year, the Colts will NOT have the first pick overall.

Have you seen some of these other teams? Kerry Collins is better than about 5 other starters in the league, unless the wheels have really fallen off this guy.

Just throwing it out there, but fans rooting for their teams to fail to get this guy, it's sad.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Nonsense.I will take anyone's money:If Manning misses every game this year, the Colts will NOT have the first pick overall. Have you seen some of these other teams? Kerry Collins is better than about 5 other starters in the league, unless the wheels have really fallen off this guy. Just throwing it out there, but fans rooting for their teams to fail to get this guy, it's sad.

3 wins max without Manning, bank on it. That may be good enough to get them Luck. He's the best QB in college since............Peyton Manning.

 

[Jason Wood]

In a way, this will be a fascinating experiment about the worth of a true franchise QB like Manning. The Pats won 10 games without Brady, but admittedly I don't see the coaches in Indy being up to snuff with the Pats coaches.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

In a way, this will be a fascinating experiment about the worth of a true franchise QB like Manning. The Pats won 10 games without Brady, but admittedly I don't see the coaches in Indy being up to snuff with the Pats coaches.

Caldwell may be the worst coach in NFL history to have coached in a Super Bowl.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

 

[gandalas]

In a way, this will be a fascinating experiment about the worth of a true franchise QB like Manning. The Pats won 10 games without Brady, but admittedly I don't see the coaches in Indy being up to snuff with the Pats coaches.

I would also say that Cassell was just a LITTLE bit better than Collins at 36+ years old is. After all, he took the CHIEFS on a playoff run...

 

[GroveDiesel]

Nonsense.

I will take anyone's money:

If Manning misses every game this year, the Colts will NOT have the first pick overall.

Have you seen some of these other teams? Kerry Collins is better than about 5 other starters in the league, unless the wheels have really fallen off this guy.

Just throwing it out there, but fans rooting for their teams to fail to get this guy, it's sad.

It's not Collins himself that scares me a ton. It's that abysmal offensive line. Collins is going to get killed back there. The Colts are about 3 games of Collins getting brained out there from starting Curtis Painter. That's first overall pick potential right there.

 

[Jason Wood]

In a way, this will be a fascinating experiment about the worth of a true franchise QB like Manning. The Pats won 10 games without Brady, but admittedly I don't see the coaches in Indy being up to snuff with the Pats coaches.

I would also say that Cassell was just a LITTLE bit better than Collins at 36+ years old is. After all, he took the CHIEFS on a playoff run...

Collins is actually almost 39 years old, and I think you're giving Cassel too much credit.

 

[Boston]

If the Colts are the worst team in the NFl due to the loss of one player (granted an all-time great player) than Polian should be fired...

 

[Shane Falco]

If the Colts are the worst team in the NFl due to the loss of one player (granted an all-time great player) than Polian should be fired...

ThisThey have a long way to go to pack it in like the Seahawks are doing

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Nonsense.I will take anyone's money:If Manning misses every game this year, the Colts will NOT have the first pick overall. Have you seen some of these other teams? Kerry Collins is better than about 5 other starters in the league, unless the wheels have really fallen off this guy. Just throwing it out there, but fans rooting for their teams to fail to get this guy, it's sad.

3 wins max without Manning, bank on it. That may be good enough to get them Luck. He's the best QB in college since............Peyton Manning.

Week 1 - @ Houston Texans, Sun. Sept. 11, 1 p.m.Week 2 - vs. Cleveland Browns, Sun. Sept. 18, 1 p.m.Week 3 - vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sun. Sept. 25, 8:20 p.m.Week 4 - @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Mon. Oct. 3, 8:30 p.m.Week 5 - vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Sun. Oct. 9, 1 p.m.Week 6 - @ Cincinnati Bengals, Sun. Oct. 16, 1 p.m.Week 7 - @ New Orleans Saints, Sun. Oct. 23, 8:20 p.m.Week 8 - @ Tennessee Titans, Sun. Oct. 30, 1 p.m.Week 9 - vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sun. Nov. 6, 1 p.m.Week 10 - vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sun. Nov. 13, 1 p.m.Week 11 - BYEWeek 12 - vs. Carolina Panthers, Sun. Nov. 27, 1 p.m.Week 13 - @ New England Patriots, Sun. Dec. 4, 8:20 p.m.Week 14 - @ Baltimore Ravens, Sun. Dec. 11, 1 p.m.Week 15 - vs. Tennessee Titans, Sun. Dec. 18, 1 p.m.Week 16 - vs. Houston Texans, Thu. Dec. 22, 8:20 p.m.Week 17 - @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Sun. Jan. 1, 1 p.m.I'll guess 6 games but you may be right, there aren't a whole lot of gimmes there.

 

[pantherclub]

Week 12 and 17 look to be key dates in the Luck sweepstakes.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In a way, this will be a fascinating experiment about the worth of a true franchise QB like Manning. The Pats won 10 games without Brady, but admittedly I don't see the coaches in Indy being up to snuff with the Pats coaches.

I would also say that Cassell was just a LITTLE bit better than Collins at 36+ years old is. After all, he took the CHIEFS on a playoff run...

that and the Patriots defense was much better than the current Colts unit.The Pats actually won 11 games that year but didn't make the playoffs - of course they went undefeated the year before.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Week 12 and 17 look to be key dates in the Luck sweepstakes.

Do you think Carolina would take a QB #1 3 years in a row?

 

[massraider]

Week 12 and 17 look to be key dates in the Luck sweepstakes.

Do you think Carolina would take a QB #1 3 years in a row?

No, they are going to pass on Luck, ignoring all trade offers, so the Colts can take him at #2. That's been the plan all along, I bet. Stupid Panthers.

 

[SproutDaddy]

3 wins max? Come on!

 

[HF21]

That's what the leprechaun said...

 

[LittlePhatty]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick? This comes up every year it seems, yet it just doesn't happen that way.

 

[massraider]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick?

No. But I am sure this will be the year. I am sure every player on every bad team that is within the last two years of their contract would like nothing more than to endure 14+ losses, so the team can maybe get a franchise pick, and be good 2 years after said player has left the team. And the coaches! I am sure the coaches, that are probably going to be fired within a year, are dying to set the table for the next staff. Really, it's one of the dumber ideas being floated on the board right now.

 

[BassNBrew]

Nonsense.I will take anyone's money:If Manning misses every game this year, the Colts will NOT have the first pick overall. Have you seen some of these other teams? Kerry Collins is better than about 5 other starters in the league, unless the wheels have really fallen off this guy. Just throwing it out there, but fans rooting for their teams to fail to get this guy, it's sad.

3 wins max without Manning, bank on it. That may be good enough to get them Luck. He's the best QB in college since............Peyton Manning.

Care to wager???

 

[Vision6]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick?

No. But I am sure this will be the year. I am sure every player on every bad team that is within the last two years of their contract would like nothing more than to endure 14+ losses, so the team can maybe get a franchise pick, and be good 2 years after said player has left the team. And the coaches! I am sure the coaches, that are probably going to be fired within a year, are dying to set the table for the next staff. Really, it's one of the dumber ideas being floated on the board right now.

I agree with thisbutYou're Pete Carroll, you left Troy just as it burned. People thought you were going to fail. You want to prove them wrong. You somehow make the playoffs thanks to the worst division of all time. Not only that you beat the defending champs and knock them out of the playoffs.Everyone loves you but you know a lot of it was luck ( ) and the future isn't too bright because you got no QB. While your biggest rival has one of the next great young QBs (Sam Bradford).Do you go forward hoping a QB falls in your lap? Or do you say **** it we got the best QB prospect ever and the only man I ever loved (Matt Barkley) in the next draft. I built up a lot of good will overachieving last year so if we lose 13 games my job is still safe.hmmmmGet me Tavaris Jackson As far as the Colts go I don't see them winning only 3 games and it's less likely that they tank the season. Be damn sure all those vets want to prove they can do it without Peyton.

 

[pantherclub]

Week 12 and 17 look to be key dates in the Luck sweepstakes.

Do you think Carolina would take a QB #1 3 years in a row?

Absolutely. Luck puts them immediately ahead of the curve. He would make up those picks.

 

[pantherclub]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick? This comes up every year it seems, yet it just doesn't happen that way.

It will probably be more subtle than that. Think Panthers last year cutting all their vets and insisting on playing a horrible rookie QB and a ton of young players. There was simply no reason last year for Claussen to start like he did.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick? This comes up every year it seems, yet it just doesn't happen that way.

In the past no one wanted the #1 overall pick because of $$$, but that's all changed now. Plus, how many other drafts had a QB prospect like Luck? Certainly none that I can remember since Peyton Manning. That's enough to make a team tank for the #1 overall pick.

 

[pantherclub]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick? This comes up every year it seems, yet it just doesn't happen that way.

In the past no one wanted the #1 overall pick because of $$$, but that's all changed now. Plus, how many other drafts had a QB prospect like Luck? Certainly none that I can remember since Peyton Manning. That's enough to make a team tank for the #1 overall pick.

Thats a good point, I think Luck is actually better than manning at this point (collegiality I mean) because of his athleticism. The only knock on Luck is that he has the potential to go off the reservation and quit football all together to be an architect or something crazy. I think that is a remote chance but its the only knock on Luck that I have heard.I mean the kid obviously marches to his own drummer when he could have dodged the CIncy, buffalo and brown bullets only to go back to school to play russian roulette again with his career. He could have gone to a nice city, nice climate, an owner that spends money and be close to his folks but he opted to go back. Thats pretty ballsy.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Week 12 and 17 look to be key dates in the Luck sweepstakes.

Do you think Carolina would take a QB #1 3 years in a row?

Luck, Newton, and who else?

 

[pantherclub]

Week 12 and 17 look to be key dates in the Luck sweepstakes.

Do you think Carolina would take a QB #1 3 years in a row?

Luck, Newton, and who else?

Jimmy Clausen We didnt have a first pick last year because we traded it to San Fran so we could draft Everette Brown. Who they just cut last week.

 

[the_vision]

If the over/under was 7 on the Colts wins I would take the under. If you have watched any of the Colts preseason games over the past few years you already know that there is no way this team can compete without Manning. Sure Collins is much better at 39 than anyone else they have put under center in recent years but the O-Line is shaky at best, the running game wouldn't be called beastly by anyone and the defense is only bearable when they play with a lead. After Collins is beaten down/injured from the relentless pass rush he is going to see the Colts will be lucky to win a single game. Thank God they moved the kickoff up this year - it's a positive for the coverage unit.

 

[massraider]

If the Colts and Collins were playing the Bengals and Dalton, who would you bet on?

 

[LittlePhatty]

That's enough to make a team tank for the #1 overall pick.

If you really believe that, who is making the decision? The owner? The coaches? The players? Are the all conspiring? Did they have a meeting where it was laid out, "Hey everyone, lose as many games as possible this year, but you know, sort of make it look like you're still trying."

 

[pantherclub]

If the Colts and Collins were playing the Bengals and Dalton, who would you bet on?

or newton and the cats?

 

[Sweet Love]

If the Colts and Collins were playing the Bengals and Dalton, who would you bet on?

Seriously...Chris Johnson or Shane Vereen? Who do YOU pick?

 

[atl3695]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick? This comes up every year it seems, yet it just doesn't happen that way.

In the past no one wanted the #1 overall pick because of $$$, but that's all changed now. Plus, how many other drafts had a QB prospect like Luck? Certainly none that I can remember since Peyton Manning. That's enough to make a team tank for the #1 overall pick.

How exactly does a team tank in football. It is too violent of a sport to play half way; players would get hurt. In addition, most players could care less if the team gets the number pick and is great for the next 10 years. They are playing for their IMMEDIATE jobs, whether it is for that team or another. They are going to hurt their careers just so a team that may cut them in the offseason can get a high pick. Since you used the Colts as an example, what exactly would they do if they decided that they wanted to "tank".

 

[pantherclub]

Can anyone point to an actual NFL game in the past and say the team lost on purpose in order to make a play for the #1 draft pick? This comes up every year it seems, yet it just doesn't happen that way.

In the past no one wanted the #1 overall pick because of $$$, but that's all changed now. Plus, how many other drafts had a QB prospect like Luck? Certainly none that I can remember since Peyton Manning. That's enough to make a team tank for the #1 overall pick.

How exactly does a team tank in football. It is too violent of a sport to play half way; players would get hurt. In addition, most players could care less if the team gets the number pick and is great for the next 10 years. They are playing for their IMMEDIATE jobs, whether it is for that team or another. They are going to hurt their careers just so a team that may cut them in the offseason can get a high pick. Since you used the Colts as an example, what exactly would they do if they decided that they wanted to "tank".

Again, it would be subtle not obvious. Like starting Classuen as a qb or Alex Smith. Cutting or sitting vets midseason in order for the "Younger" players to get time. I dont think it happens but I dont think it would be hard either if your team was sitting at 2-8 to make some changes to lose out.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think the Colts are toast: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=9276

I'm less optimistic than most. I'm not going out on a limb if I tell you that the Colts are going to implode, but I think that's what's going to happen. If Manning is gone for 16 games, I would probably take the "under" even at 6 wins.

Let's start with a few differences between the 2011 Colts and some other teams missing their franchise quarterback:

For starters, Don Shula, Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, and George Seifert aren't coaching the Colts. At this point, we've seen more from Bill Belichick's hoodie than from Jim Caldwell. Caldwell went 26-63 as head coach at Wake Forest. He was handpicked to replace Tony Dungy because of his ability to seamlessly guide the ship. He did so admirably in year one, bringing the Colts to the Super Bowl. But his assignment now isn't to guide the ship, it's to build it. He's going from being a 'game manager' to being the captain. And we've seen nothing from Caldwell to suggest that he's capable of doing that. Or that he's awake.

To the point, the Colts lose more than a Hall of Fame quarterback. Manning was an offensive coordinator and a coach on the field. Making matters worse, Tony Dungy and Tom Moore are gone, and along with Peyton Manning, the core of what's made the Colts "the Colts" over the past decade won't be around in 2011.

If the Colts struggled early, I doubt they keep their motivation late. In '98, Steve Young had a monster season and San Francisco made the playoffs for the 15th time in 16 years. When Young went down in week three of the '99 season, the 49ers were 2-1. But they ended the season 4-12. Once a team so accustomed to playing meaningful games has their hopes dashed by week 9, will they have the motivation to play at a high level? The Colts play Pittsburgh and Atlanta, in addition to road trips to Houston, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, in the first 9 weeks. Even a split among the easier games -- home for Cleveland, Jacksonville and Kansas City, along with traveling to might only give them a 3-6 record. Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday aren't used to 'playing out the string' and may not play up to their talent levels if the wheels fall off in Indy.

Kerry Collins was good in 2008. That was so long ago Brett Favre was on the Jets, Plaxico Burress wasn't in jail, and Lendale White had 200 carries. Collins is young for his age, in that he has a December 30th birthday. But at nearly 39 years old, does Collins have much left in the tank? Brett Favre, Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie had good games at 39 and older, but most quarterbacks are retired at this point. Come to think of it, Collins was retired as of two months ago.

There are lots of reasons to be down on the Colts; are there any to be optimistic? Here's the problem in Indianapolis. For years, the Colts have been building around Manning. They've drafted pass catching tight ends and pass blocking lineman, while failing to improve the rushing attack. They spent money on great pass rushers but didn't have the cap space for strong cornerbacks. Essentially, the Colts team was built on Peyton Manning passing for a lot of yards and scoring a lot of points. Now what?

The Colts aren't suddenly going to turn into a ground-and-pound offense. Even with new LT Anthony Costanzo, the Colts still sport one of the league's worst run blocking lines.The Colts ranked last in rushing yards and 30th in YPC in '09, "rising" to 29th and 27th in those categories last year. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown can't carry an offense, and Delone Carter isn't going to step in and be Jim Brown, Larry Csonka, Floyd Little, Jim Nance or Joe Morris. If the Colts are lucky, he'll be better than James Mungro. But either way, don't expect the Colts to turn into a run-first team.

Can the Colts turn Collins into a game manager and expect to win games with their defense? Do you know who the Colts' defensive tackles are? Fili Moala and Antonio Johnson. Know the names of the starting cornerbacks? Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers. You'd be hard pressed to find a worse pair of duos that anchor a team's rushing and passing defense. The Colts were 0-5 in games where they trailed after the first quarter and 7-0 in games where they led after the first quarter. In the other four games, Indianapolis was winning by halftime in three, and won all of them, but lost the fourth game. The Colts model is to pass early and often, gain a lead, and play to the defense's strengths: namely, rushing the passer. But if the Colts are forced to have their run defense take center stage, and can't help the cornerbacks by playing in obvious passing downs, the defense is going to look much, much worse in 2011.

Which brings me to the point: the Colts aren't now going to try to win with defense, because the defense isn't built that way. Indianapolis won't try to win by running, because the offense isn't built that way. The Colts are going to try to plug and play, essentially keeping the high-octane, aerial attack that tries to get leads early, but by deploying Kerry Collins in lieu of Peyton Manning. That is a recipe for disaster.

In 2009, the Colts set a record for the largest disparity between passing and rushing first downs. Last year, they actually passed for 12 more first downs than they did the year before. Indianapolis is built around a lethal passing attack; Kerry Collins is going to kill the passing attack. Building a team around an almost 39-year-old recently retired quarterback who has two weeks of training is a train wreck waiting to happen. I'd be shocked if he doesn't miss at least a few games this season, and the Colts will be even worse when he's out.

The Colts won't pass effectively. They won't run effectively. When those things happen, the defense will be more exposed than ever. And after an ugly start, I think the most talented veterans on the team will lose their motivation. The Colts could very well bottom out to 3-13. It's not about how good Peyton Manning is, or how valuable he is; it's about how the team was built around him. Peyton Manning isn't the straw that stirs the drinks. He's the glass that holds the drink. Without him, Indy is going to be a wet mess.

 

[B-Deep]

Explain an NFL team tanking to me

I mean, who all would have to be involved?

I can't believe any players are willing to tank, as they are going to be free agents at some point and they cannot say "well the 2011 season i sucked cause we really wanted luck.

Similar for the coaching staff, all the assistants and the like want their units to do well because they all want to get a better job somewhere else, and does any head coach think they have enough leeway to totally suck for a season and not have it held against them?

Sure, i think there are teams whose ownership/management would not be UNHAPPY with doing so bad they get luck, but actively tanking?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I think the Colts are toast: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=9276

I'm less optimistic than most. I'm not going out on a limb if I tell you that the Colts are going to implode, but I think that's what's going to happen. If Manning is gone for 16 games, I would probably take the "under" even at 6 wins.

Let's start with a few differences between the 2011 Colts and some other teams missing their franchise quarterback:

For starters, Don Shula, Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, and George Seifert aren't coaching the Colts. At this point, we've seen more from Bill Belichick's hoodie than from Jim Caldwell. Caldwell went 26-63 as head coach at Wake Forest. He was handpicked to replace Tony Dungy because of his ability to seamlessly guide the ship. He did so admirably in year one, bringing the Colts to the Super Bowl. But his assignment now isn't to guide the ship, it's to build it. He's going from being a 'game manager' to being the captain. And we've seen nothing from Caldwell to suggest that he's capable of doing that. Or that he's awake.

To the point, the Colts lose more than a Hall of Fame quarterback. Manning was an offensive coordinator and a coach on the field. Making matters worse, Tony Dungy and Tom Moore are gone, and along with Peyton Manning, the core of what's made the Colts "the Colts" over the past decade won't be around in 2011.

If the Colts struggled early, I doubt they keep their motivation late. In '98, Steve Young had a monster season and San Francisco made the playoffs for the 15th time in 16 years. When Young went down in week three of the '99 season, the 49ers were 2-1. But they ended the season 4-12. Once a team so accustomed to playing meaningful games has their hopes dashed by week 9, will they have the motivation to play at a high level? The Colts play Pittsburgh and Atlanta, in addition to road trips to Houston, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, in the first 9 weeks. Even a split among the easier games -- home for Cleveland, Jacksonville and Kansas City, along with traveling to might only give them a 3-6 record. Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday aren't used to 'playing out the string' and may not play up to their talent levels if the wheels fall off in Indy.

Kerry Collins was good in 2008. That was so long ago Brett Favre was on the Jets, Plaxico Burress wasn't in jail, and Lendale White had 200 carries. Collins is young for his age, in that he has a December 30th birthday. But at nearly 39 years old, does Collins have much left in the tank? Brett Favre, Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie had good games at 39 and older, but most quarterbacks are retired at this point. Come to think of it, Collins was retired as of two months ago.

There are lots of reasons to be down on the Colts; are there any to be optimistic? Here's the problem in Indianapolis. For years, the Colts have been building around Manning. They've drafted pass catching tight ends and pass blocking lineman, while failing to improve the rushing attack. They spent money on great pass rushers but didn't have the cap space for strong cornerbacks. Essentially, the Colts team was built on Peyton Manning passing for a lot of yards and scoring a lot of points. Now what?

The Colts aren't suddenly going to turn into a ground-and-pound offense. Even with new LT Anthony Costanzo, the Colts still sport one of the league's worst run blocking lines.The Colts ranked last in rushing yards and 30th in YPC in '09, "rising" to 29th and 27th in those categories last year. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown can't carry an offense, and Delone Carter isn't going to step in and be Jim Brown, Larry Csonka, Floyd Little, Jim Nance or Joe Morris. If the Colts are lucky, he'll be better than James Mungro. But either way, don't expect the Colts to turn into a run-first team.

Can the Colts turn Collins into a game manager and expect to win games with their defense? Do you know who the Colts' defensive tackles are? Fili Moala and Antonio Johnson. Know the names of the starting cornerbacks? Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers. You'd be hard pressed to find a worse pair of duos that anchor a team's rushing and passing defense. The Colts were 0-5 in games where they trailed after the first quarter and 7-0 in games where they led after the first quarter. In the other four games, Indianapolis was winning by halftime in three, and won all of them, but lost the fourth game. The Colts model is to pass early and often, gain a lead, and play to the defense's strengths: namely, rushing the passer. But if the Colts are forced to have their run defense take center stage, and can't help the cornerbacks by playing in obvious passing downs, the defense is going to look much, much worse in 2011.

Which brings me to the point: the Colts aren't now going to try to win with defense, because the defense isn't built that way. Indianapolis won't try to win by running, because the offense isn't built that way. The Colts are going to try to plug and play, essentially keeping the high-octane, aerial attack that tries to get leads early, but by deploying Kerry Collins in lieu of Peyton Manning. That is a recipe for disaster.

In 2009, the Colts set a record for the largest disparity between passing and rushing first downs. Last year, they actually passed for 12 more first downs than they did the year before. Indianapolis is built around a lethal passing attack; Kerry Collins is going to kill the passing attack. Building a team around an almost 39-year-old recently retired quarterback who has two weeks of training is a train wreck waiting to happen. I'd be shocked if he doesn't miss at least a few games this season, and the Colts will be even worse when he's out.

The Colts won't pass effectively. They won't run effectively. When those things happen, the defense will be more exposed than ever. And after an ugly start, I think the most talented veterans on the team will lose their motivation. The Colts could very well bottom out to 3-13. It's not about how good Peyton Manning is, or how valuable he is; it's about how the team was built around him. Peyton Manning isn't the straw that stirs the drinks. He's the glass that holds the drink. Without him, Indy is going to be a wet mess.

One of the best posts I've read in awhile.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Explain an NFL team tanking to meI mean, who all would have to be involved?I can't believe any players are willing to tank, as they are going to be free agents at some point and they cannot say "well the 2011 season i sucked cause we really wanted luck.Similar for the coaching staff, all the assistants and the like want their units to do well because they all want to get a better job somewhere else, and does any head coach think they have enough leeway to totally suck for a season and not have it held against them? Sure, i think there are teams whose ownership/management would not be UNHAPPY with doing so bad they get luck, but actively tanking?

I believe NFL teams tank by losing motivation. It's called packing in the season early.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Explain an NFL team tanking to meI mean, who all would have to be involved?I can't believe any players are willing to tank, as they are going to be free agents at some point and they cannot say "well the 2011 season i sucked cause we really wanted luck.Similar for the coaching staff, all the assistants and the like want their units to do well because they all want to get a better job somewhere else, and does any head coach think they have enough leeway to totally suck for a season and not have it held against them? Sure, i think there are teams whose ownership/management would not be UNHAPPY with doing so bad they get luck, but actively tanking?

I believe NFL teams tank by losing motivation. It's called packing in the season early.

And by early you mean roughly what, week 12-13?

 

[dgreen]

Sure, i think there are teams whose ownership/management would not be UNHAPPY with doing so bad they get luck, but actively tanking?

 

[B-Deep]

Explain an NFL team tanking to meI mean, who all would have to be involved?I can't believe any players are willing to tank, as they are going to be free agents at some point and they cannot say "well the 2011 season i sucked cause we really wanted luck.Similar for the coaching staff, all the assistants and the like want their units to do well because they all want to get a better job somewhere else, and does any head coach think they have enough leeway to totally suck for a season and not have it held against them? Sure, i think there are teams whose ownership/management would not be UNHAPPY with doing so bad they get luck, but actively tanking?

I believe NFL teams tank by losing motivation. It's called packing in the season early.

so they lose motivation to get luck?i don't see it

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Explain an NFL team tanking to meI mean, who all would have to be involved?I can't believe any players are willing to tank, as they are going to be free agents at some point and they cannot say "well the 2011 season i sucked cause we really wanted luck.Similar for the coaching staff, all the assistants and the like want their units to do well because they all want to get a better job somewhere else, and does any head coach think they have enough leeway to totally suck for a season and not have it held against them? Sure, i think there are teams whose ownership/management would not be UNHAPPY with doing so bad they get luck, but actively tanking?

I believe NFL teams tank by losing motivation. It's called packing in the season early.

And by early you mean roughly what, week 12-13?

Sorry to say, but that will come early and often. I believe they're already beat in their minds before playing one game.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Explain an NFL team tanking to meI mean, who all would have to be involved?I can't believe any players are willing to tank, as they are going to be free agents at some point and they cannot say "well the 2011 season i sucked cause we really wanted luck.Similar for the coaching staff, all the assistants and the like want their units to do well because they all want to get a better job somewhere else, and does any head coach think they have enough leeway to totally suck for a season and not have it held against them? Sure, i think there are teams whose ownership/management would not be UNHAPPY with doing so bad they get luck, but actively tanking?

I believe NFL teams tank by losing motivation. It's called packing in the season early.

so they lose motivation to get luck?i don't see it

No, getting Luck is a result of losing motivation.

 

[VaTerp]

I think the Colts are toast: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=9276

I'm less optimistic than most. I'm not going out on a limb if I tell you that the Colts are going to implode, but I think that's what's going to happen. If Manning is gone for 16 games, I would probably take the "under" even at 6 wins.

Let's start with a few differences between the 2011 Colts and some other teams missing their franchise quarterback:

For starters, Don Shula, Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, and George Seifert aren't coaching the Colts. At this point, we've seen more from Bill Belichick's hoodie than from Jim Caldwell. Caldwell went 26-63 as head coach at Wake Forest. He was handpicked to replace Tony Dungy because of his ability to seamlessly guide the ship. He did so admirably in year one, bringing the Colts to the Super Bowl. But his assignment now isn't to guide the ship, it's to build it. He's going from being a 'game manager' to being the captain. And we've seen nothing from Caldwell to suggest that he's capable of doing that. Or that he's awake.

To the point, the Colts lose more than a Hall of Fame quarterback. Manning was an offensive coordinator and a coach on the field. Making matters worse, Tony Dungy and Tom Moore are gone, and along with Peyton Manning, the core of what's made the Colts "the Colts" over the past decade won't be around in 2011.

If the Colts struggled early, I doubt they keep their motivation late. In '98, Steve Young had a monster season and San Francisco made the playoffs for the 15th time in 16 years. When Young went down in week three of the '99 season, the 49ers were 2-1. But they ended the season 4-12. Once a team so accustomed to playing meaningful games has their hopes dashed by week 9, will they have the motivation to play at a high level? The Colts play Pittsburgh and Atlanta, in addition to road trips to Houston, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, in the first 9 weeks. Even a split among the easier games -- home for Cleveland, Jacksonville and Kansas City, along with traveling to might only give them a 3-6 record. Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday aren't used to 'playing out the string' and may not play up to their talent levels if the wheels fall off in Indy.

Kerry Collins was good in 2008. That was so long ago Brett Favre was on the Jets, Plaxico Burress wasn't in jail, and Lendale White had 200 carries. Collins is young for his age, in that he has a December 30th birthday. But at nearly 39 years old, does Collins have much left in the tank? Brett Favre, Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie had good games at 39 and older, but most quarterbacks are retired at this point. Come to think of it, Collins was retired as of two months ago.

There are lots of reasons to be down on the Colts; are there any to be optimistic? Here's the problem in Indianapolis. For years, the Colts have been building around Manning. They've drafted pass catching tight ends and pass blocking lineman, while failing to improve the rushing attack. They spent money on great pass rushers but didn't have the cap space for strong cornerbacks. Essentially, the Colts team was built on Peyton Manning passing for a lot of yards and scoring a lot of points. Now what?

The Colts aren't suddenly going to turn into a ground-and-pound offense. Even with new LT Anthony Costanzo, the Colts still sport one of the league's worst run blocking lines.The Colts ranked last in rushing yards and 30th in YPC in '09, "rising" to 29th and 27th in those categories last year. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown can't carry an offense, and Delone Carter isn't going to step in and be Jim Brown, Larry Csonka, Floyd Little, Jim Nance or Joe Morris. If the Colts are lucky, he'll be better than James Mungro. But either way, don't expect the Colts to turn into a run-first team.

Can the Colts turn Collins into a game manager and expect to win games with their defense? Do you know who the Colts' defensive tackles are? Fili Moala and Antonio Johnson. Know the names of the starting cornerbacks? Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers. You'd be hard pressed to find a worse pair of duos that anchor a team's rushing and passing defense. The Colts were 0-5 in games where they trailed after the first quarter and 7-0 in games where they led after the first quarter. In the other four games, Indianapolis was winning by halftime in three, and won all of them, but lost the fourth game. The Colts model is to pass early and often, gain a lead, and play to the defense's strengths: namely, rushing the passer. But if the Colts are forced to have their run defense take center stage, and can't help the cornerbacks by playing in obvious passing downs, the defense is going to look much, much worse in 2011.

Which brings me to the point: the Colts aren't now going to try to win with defense, because the defense isn't built that way. Indianapolis won't try to win by running, because the offense isn't built that way. The Colts are going to try to plug and play, essentially keeping the high-octane, aerial attack that tries to get leads early, but by deploying Kerry Collins in lieu of Peyton Manning. That is a recipe for disaster.

In 2009, the Colts set a record for the largest disparity between passing and rushing first downs. Last year, they actually passed for 12 more first downs than they did the year before. Indianapolis is built around a lethal passing attack; Kerry Collins is going to kill the passing attack. Building a team around an almost 39-year-old recently retired quarterback who has two weeks of training is a train wreck waiting to happen. I'd be shocked if he doesn't miss at least a few games this season, and the Colts will be even worse when he's out.

The Colts won't pass effectively. They won't run effectively. When those things happen, the defense will be more exposed than ever. And after an ugly start, I think the most talented veterans on the team will lose their motivation. The Colts could very well bottom out to 3-13. It's not about how good Peyton Manning is, or how valuable he is; it's about how the team was built around him. Peyton Manning isn't the straw that stirs the drinks. He's the glass that holds the drink. Without him, Indy is going to be a wet mess.

I agree with every single thing in this article and is why I have commented in other related threads that Manning's presence alone turns Addai from a risky but somewhat attractive flex option to almost unrosterable.

I think the wheels come completely off this year and I'd be willing to put some serious change on it.

 

[werdnoynek]

a team throwing away a season is a pretty ridiculous thought. sure i could see the front office wanting to tank a season for a top draft pick... but for the players to do that is just plain silly. these guys have probably been playing competative sports for as long as they can remember. they hate losing... they are going to give it their all regardless of what's at stake. imo, their egos are too huge to even fathom it.

however... i agree with chase in that the colts are going to be lost without manning, they wont have to try to lose... they just will.