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Surprised at how much love Leinart is getting (1 Viewer)
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Matt Waldman
Footballguy
I think 3300-3500 yards and 14-18 scores is a good place for him. I'd even say 3800 yards (238 yards per game) and a little more than a touchdown per game is likely - especially if you consider the defensive losses aptly mentioned by Borberly and Stuart.
Here's what bugs me despite the increase opportunities he might get due to playing from behind:
1. When an offense is in the hole, defenses can be far more aggressive and complex with what they do to a QB. Will Leinart be ready to see blitz packages he hasn't seen before or handled before at the NFL level? I don't think so.
2. He's going to get hit a lot more against this kind of pressure because the defense knows he'll have to throw almost every down. More pressure = higher chance of mistakes (poor throws and turnovers - and unless he's fixed it, he does not protect the ball well when he moves in the pocket). His risk of injury may increase as well. Chase, if you're reading this - I think a good player points would be to profile quarterbacks that got hurt and see if there is a correlation to the amount of pressures (if if that data isn't available, QBs playing from behind)
3. I see the yardage piling up for Leinart if he's playing from behind, but not the scores. Fitz is great, but I don't believe Doucet or Breaston will pose enough of a threat in the red zone for easier pitch and catches.
I think it's not a clear-cut assumption that a bad defense means the quarterback will thrive. It will increase opportunities to succeed, but also increase opportunities to get pummeled and make more mistakes. And Leinart lacks the gun to throw on the run like a Cutler or Stafford. Defenses know this and if they throw the sink at him and force him out of the pocket, he's more likely to attempt passes that will be easy pickings for a secondary.
I wouldn't be surprised if Leinart completes less than 60 percent of his passes if the defense falters and the Cardinals have to play from behind.
Here's what bugs me despite the increase opportunities he might get due to playing from behind:
1. When an offense is in the hole, defenses can be far more aggressive and complex with what they do to a QB. Will Leinart be ready to see blitz packages he hasn't seen before or handled before at the NFL level? I don't think so.
2. He's going to get hit a lot more against this kind of pressure because the defense knows he'll have to throw almost every down. More pressure = higher chance of mistakes (poor throws and turnovers - and unless he's fixed it, he does not protect the ball well when he moves in the pocket). His risk of injury may increase as well. Chase, if you're reading this - I think a good player points would be to profile quarterbacks that got hurt and see if there is a correlation to the amount of pressures (if if that data isn't available, QBs playing from behind)
3. I see the yardage piling up for Leinart if he's playing from behind, but not the scores. Fitz is great, but I don't believe Doucet or Breaston will pose enough of a threat in the red zone for easier pitch and catches.
I think it's not a clear-cut assumption that a bad defense means the quarterback will thrive. It will increase opportunities to succeed, but also increase opportunities to get pummeled and make more mistakes. And Leinart lacks the gun to throw on the run like a Cutler or Stafford. Defenses know this and if they throw the sink at him and force him out of the pocket, he's more likely to attempt passes that will be easy pickings for a secondary.
I wouldn't be surprised if Leinart completes less than 60 percent of his passes if the defense falters and the Cardinals have to play from behind.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think I was unclear. I think that 3200/18-20/15-20 seems like a fairly conservative projection for Leinart over 16 games. That's hardly world beating, but it's solid. I DON'T think that Fitz will get 110/1500/16. But I DO think he's capable of it, since he's put up over 100 catches, over 1400 yards, and 13 TDs, and he averages close to 100 catches, 1400 yards, and 11 TDs over his four healthy non-rookie seasons. And while you're right that it would be easier with a hall of fame QB throwing to him, Leinart 2010 may well throw better than breaking-down Warner 2009 - and remember that we're looking at Fitz's first full season without Boldin. This could be an absolutely enormous year for him.bostonfred said:
Fred, I don't think many in redraft format are going to agree with you...I can't remember anyone putting up those numbers in all 3 categories in a very long time. Randy moss in 2003 posted 111/1632/17...Jerry Rice in 1995 posted 122/1848/15...I'm not saying Fitz can't ever do it in his career but it would have been a lot easier with a HoF QB throwing him the ball.
I posted a comment up the page a bit. I appreciate your POV on this but if leinart throws for 3,500 yds and 20 Tds, that still is pretty mediocre these days in FF. Too many QBs are tossing 4,000+ yds and at least 26-30+ Tds...Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, Favre, Peyton, Schaub, Romo, Brady, and Rivers...most of those guys would have all been on different teams in a 12 team league so you are pretty much behind the 8 ball at QB if leinart is your main guy going into the season.
Leinart as a QB2 behind anyone of the guys I mentioned, perhaps. But some people wait and wait on QB, then in the 8th round go and take Joe Flacco or Carson palmer as their QB1, then grab Leinart as their QB2, that's a bad combo and will put owners a good 6-8 points down on a weekly basis and on the weeks you have to face a top QB like Rodgers or Brees you will be more like 15-20 points behind the 8 ball if those guys have a strong week.
How many strong games during the year do you think Leinart will have? Do you have to answer that question really.
The reason those numbers are meaningful is that I think Leinart is capable of putting up close to 4000 yards, 28 TDs, 200 yards rushing and 4 TDs. Those are Aaron Rodgers' numbers in 2008, and I think that's 100% achievable for a guy in a similar situation with a better pedigree and better receivers.
I don't know why you're comparing him to Brees, since his ADP is slightly different, but as for how many strong games I think Leinart will have? A lot, actually. The Cards play the NFC West, AFC West, Tampa, Atlanta, Minnesota and New Orleans.
I'd be willing to put him in my lineup opening day against the Rams. Week 2 at Atlanta and their 28th ranked pass defense looks like a decent matchup, too. Week 3 against Oakland seems tough, week 4 against San Diego is a decent matchup, especially if San Diego has their almost-traditional first half struggles, and he'll certainly get pass attempts against New Orleans. After the bye, they play Seattle and Tampa, both of which seem like decent starts, then a tough game against the Vikings, followed by Seattle and the Chiefs. The 49ers seem like a tougher matchup again, so we'll bench him there, then he plays against the Rams, Denver, Carolina, and a home game against Dallas on Christmas to close out the fantasy season. I won't have to start him week 17 against the 49ers, which is nice. That looks like a very favorable schedule to me. I will absolutely start Leinart in some of those games.
Right now, Leinart seems like a great value play to me, especially in keeper/dynasty type leagues. If he falls flat on his face, which too many people are assuming, then he's easy to drop. If he has a good year, which I think is likely, this is the cheapest you will be able to get him. And at his current price, the possibility that he has a great year, which I think is very possible, is being drastically underrated.
sholditch
Footballguy
Menace, definitely a situation to watch in camp, but reports on DA have been awful. Trying not to be a hopeful dynasty owner here, but do you think that Skelton will have a chance to compete for the no. 2 job?
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I think I was unclear. I think that 3200/18-20/15-20 seems like a fairly conservative projection for Leinart over 16 games. That's hardly world beating, but it's solid. I DON'T think that Fitz will get 110/1500/16. But I DO think he's capable of it, since he's put up over 100 catches, over 1400 yards, and 13 TDs, and he averages close to 100 catches, 1400 yards, and 11 TDs over his four healthy non-rookie seasons. And while you're right that it would be easier with a hall of fame QB throwing to him, Leinart 2010 may well throw better than breaking-down Warner 2009 - and remember that we're looking at Fitz's first full season without Boldin. This could be an absolutely enormous year for him.
I posted a comment up the page a bit. I appreciate your POV on this but if leinart throws for 3,500 yds and 20 Tds, that still is pretty mediocre these days in FF. Too many QBs are tossing 4,000+ yds and at least 26-30+ Tds...Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, Favre, Peyton, Schaub, Romo, Brady, and Rivers...most of those guys would have all been on different teams in a 12 team league so you are pretty much behind the 8 ball at QB if leinart is your main guy going into the season.
Leinart as a QB2 behind anyone of the guys I mentioned, perhaps. But some people wait and wait on QB, then in the 8th round go and take Joe Flacco or Carson palmer as their QB1, then grab Leinart as their QB2, that's a bad combo and will put owners a good 6-8 points down on a weekly basis and on the weeks you have to face a top QB like Rodgers or Brees you will be more like 15-20 points behind the 8 ball if those guys have a strong week.
How many strong games during the year do you think Leinart will have? Do you have to answer that question really.
The reason those numbers are meaningful is that I think Leinart is capable of putting up close to 4000 yards, 28 TDs, 200 yards rushing and 4 TDs. Those are Aaron Rodgers' numbers in 2008, and I think that's 100% achievable for a guy in a similar situation with a better pedigree and better receivers.
I don't know why you're comparing him to Brees, since his ADP is slightly different, but as for how many strong games I think Leinart will have? A lot, actually. The Cards play the NFC West, AFC West, Tampa, Atlanta, Minnesota and New Orleans.
I'd be willing to put him in my lineup opening day against the Rams. Week 2 at Atlanta and their 28th ranked pass defense looks like a decent matchup, too. Week 3 against Oakland seems tough, week 4 against San Diego is a decent matchup, especially if San Diego has their almost-traditional first half struggles, and he'll certainly get pass attempts against New Orleans. After the bye, they play Seattle and Tampa, both of which seem like decent starts, then a tough game against the Vikings, followed by Seattle and the Chiefs. The 49ers seem like a tougher matchup again, so we'll bench him there, then he plays against the Rams, Denver, Carolina, and a home game against Dallas on Christmas to close out the fantasy season. I won't have to start him week 17 against the 49ers, which is nice. That looks like a very favorable schedule to me. I will absolutely start Leinart in some of those games.
Right now, Leinart seems like a great value play to me, especially in keeper/dynasty type leagues. If he falls flat on his face, which too many people are assuming, then he's easy to drop. If he has a good year, which I think is likely, this is the cheapest you will be able to get him. And at his current price, the possibility that he has a great year, which I think is very possible, is being drastically underrated.
Was this overlooked?
Touchdown There
Footballguy
There is no softer way to say this: Leinart is the biggest p*ssy in the NFL. This was always my gut feeling watching him play, but then I had a chance to watch his MMA workout videos last year. He punched the bag like a girl.
There are too many intangibles a QB needs to lead his team to greatness, and Leinart has none of them. I think playing fantasy football can skew visions of a guys potential on the field. Just because Leinart has a good arm does not mean he is ever going to produce for Arizona. I do not think the team wants to follow him. If he does not lose the starting job in camp, he will lose it during the season. Fitz is going to suffer until Leinart is replaced.
There are too many intangibles a QB needs to lead his team to greatness, and Leinart has none of them. I think playing fantasy football can skew visions of a guys potential on the field. Just because Leinart has a good arm does not mean he is ever going to produce for Arizona. I do not think the team wants to follow him. If he does not lose the starting job in camp, he will lose it during the season. Fitz is going to suffer until Leinart is replaced.
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In 12 games as a rookie, Leinart passed for 2547 yards, which pro-rates out to well over 3000 yards in 16 games
What you neglect to see here is that he only put up 11 TDs, w/ 12 ints
Why bother w/ a QB throwing 15 TDs and 16 INTs?
Since that year, he's added 3 TDs and 8 INTs, for totals of 14/20
Anderson, on the other hand, is slightly above break-even, at 46/45
Sure, he's got a lower completion %, but looks to be a better game manager, which is what you want if all the talk about decent D and good ground game plays true.
Leinart is capable of putting up close to 4000 yards, 28 TDs, 200 yards rushing and 4 TDs. Those are Aaron Rodgers' numbers in 2008
In making this judgement,you seem to have taken into account pretty much everything except the THE PLAYERS TALENT!
In leagues with flexible rosters, I might take a flier on Leinart if I have one of the top QBs, and sure if I can make space for 3 QBs, in acknowledgement of his upside.
But only if he's damned near free.
And if I have 2nd teir, less consistent/rugged QB as my starter - I'm not putting myself in a position where I may need to depend on Leinart, until he's shown me at least half a GOOD season.
Not mediocre - GOOD. There are plenty of guys with less risk from whom I can get mediocre.
I'd be surprised if he gets more than 9 games, and surprised if he throws significantly more TDs than INTs.
Not something to bother with for my fantasy team.
What you neglect to see here is that he only put up 11 TDs, w/ 12 ints
Why bother w/ a QB throwing 15 TDs and 16 INTs?
Since that year, he's added 3 TDs and 8 INTs, for totals of 14/20
Anderson, on the other hand, is slightly above break-even, at 46/45
Sure, he's got a lower completion %, but looks to be a better game manager, which is what you want if all the talk about decent D and good ground game plays true.
Leinart is capable of putting up close to 4000 yards, 28 TDs, 200 yards rushing and 4 TDs. Those are Aaron Rodgers' numbers in 2008
In making this judgement,you seem to have taken into account pretty much everything except the THE PLAYERS TALENT!
In leagues with flexible rosters, I might take a flier on Leinart if I have one of the top QBs, and sure if I can make space for 3 QBs, in acknowledgement of his upside.
But only if he's damned near free.
And if I have 2nd teir, less consistent/rugged QB as my starter - I'm not putting myself in a position where I may need to depend on Leinart, until he's shown me at least half a GOOD season.
Not mediocre - GOOD. There are plenty of guys with less risk from whom I can get mediocre.
I'd be surprised if he gets more than 9 games, and surprised if he throws significantly more TDs than INTs.
Not something to bother with for my fantasy team.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
I wasn't aware that he looked so bad in his mixed martial arts workout video. That changes everything.
Where is this thing about him being benched by week 9 coming from? Is it because of Anderson, who Cleveland decided sucked so bad that he couldn't beat out Brady Quinn and they got rid of him for Jake Delhomme? There's plenty coming out of camp that Leinart looks good. There's nothing coming out of camp that Anderson looks good.
Is it because he sucked his rookie season? Lots of QBs suck their rookie year. Let me tell you about another guy who played just one game his rookie season. The next year he put up 3284 yards, 17 TDs and 16 INTs - very similar per-game numbers to Leinart's rookie year. The following year, he regressed, throwing for just 2100 yards and 11 TDs vs 15 INTs in 11 games. The team was concerned and brought someone else in, someone even better than Derek Anderson, if you can believe it, but in this young QB's fourth year, he put up a very solid 3159 yards, 27 TDs and 7 INTs. And his numbers have improved substantially since then, culminating with him leading the Saints to a Superbowl last year.
Does that mean that Leinart is Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers? Of course not. But looking at what he did his rookie year, and then when he didn't get to practice full time with the first team offense because he had a hall of fame quarterback beating him in practice and ultimately leading the team to a Superbowl, doesn't tell a complete story either. Remember how good Rex Grossman looked for the Bears that one year in 2006? Remember on New Year's Eve when he admitted that he didn't really study the gameplan, how he went 2 of 12 for 33 yards and 3 INTs before getting yanked? The difference between good and terrible is razor thin for young guys in the NFL, because they can't carry it on their talent alone. They need time to learn the plays, and the defenses, and understand all the little nuances that go into the most difficult position in sports. Judging Leinart on his successes or failures in mop up duty or when Warner says he'll play all week, then decides on game day that he's not going to be able to go, is just absurd.
I totally understand that some people thought Leinart would suck when he came out and haven't seen anything to change their minds. I totally understand that he's not a guy you want starting for your fantasy team. I just think the risk/reward for the guy throwing to Fitzgerald and playing one of the softest schedules imaginable is off the charts. This is a guy I will probably end up with on every roster.
Where is this thing about him being benched by week 9 coming from? Is it because of Anderson, who Cleveland decided sucked so bad that he couldn't beat out Brady Quinn and they got rid of him for Jake Delhomme? There's plenty coming out of camp that Leinart looks good. There's nothing coming out of camp that Anderson looks good.
Is it because he sucked his rookie season? Lots of QBs suck their rookie year. Let me tell you about another guy who played just one game his rookie season. The next year he put up 3284 yards, 17 TDs and 16 INTs - very similar per-game numbers to Leinart's rookie year. The following year, he regressed, throwing for just 2100 yards and 11 TDs vs 15 INTs in 11 games. The team was concerned and brought someone else in, someone even better than Derek Anderson, if you can believe it, but in this young QB's fourth year, he put up a very solid 3159 yards, 27 TDs and 7 INTs. And his numbers have improved substantially since then, culminating with him leading the Saints to a Superbowl last year.
Does that mean that Leinart is Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers? Of course not. But looking at what he did his rookie year, and then when he didn't get to practice full time with the first team offense because he had a hall of fame quarterback beating him in practice and ultimately leading the team to a Superbowl, doesn't tell a complete story either. Remember how good Rex Grossman looked for the Bears that one year in 2006? Remember on New Year's Eve when he admitted that he didn't really study the gameplan, how he went 2 of 12 for 33 yards and 3 INTs before getting yanked? The difference between good and terrible is razor thin for young guys in the NFL, because they can't carry it on their talent alone. They need time to learn the plays, and the defenses, and understand all the little nuances that go into the most difficult position in sports. Judging Leinart on his successes or failures in mop up duty or when Warner says he'll play all week, then decides on game day that he's not going to be able to go, is just absurd.
I totally understand that some people thought Leinart would suck when he came out and haven't seen anything to change their minds. I totally understand that he's not a guy you want starting for your fantasy team. I just think the risk/reward for the guy throwing to Fitzgerald and playing one of the softest schedules imaginable is off the charts. This is a guy I will probably end up with on every roster.
well, you gotta remember, he had a really good rookie season, and then his production slid somewhat and he was overtaken by an extremely good (but aging) Kurt Warner. If any other Backup QB would have been there, he would have kept his starting job.that being said, he looked really good in exhibition last year and I got the impression the game had slowed down for him a fair bit.He has some good WR's and did get to learn some from an aging vet in Kurt Warner.it would nto surprise me to see him get 3100-3300 yards passing this year. all the pieces to the puzzle are there.so 3000 yards passing is not unreasonable, and in todays NFL it is fairly average. 4000 yards would be another issue entirely but 3000 isnt out of the question
one thing is clear. he is definitely a polarizing player.
I agree with whoever said that the good thing about Leinart is that his is a low risk, high reward situation. For that reason, I see him as a solid player to target late as a back-up to your stud or someone to include in a possible QBBC.
I agree with whoever said that the good thing about Leinart is that his is a low risk, high reward situation. For that reason, I see him as a solid player to target late as a back-up to your stud or someone to include in a possible QBBC.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Actually, it does not change anything. Leinart stunk before and he still stinks. He is just showcasing his poor intangibles in different ways. However, I sense your sarcasm. Unfortunately, your belief in him does not send him to the Pro Bowl.I have no beef with Leinart and hope he proves me wrong. I do not find him roster-able and I see no upside at all.
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
That's the thread, isn't it? It's not as if anyone (aside from LHUCKS) is saying that he'll be your QB1, but as a QB3 or 4, go ahead and and dump him and move on.
radballs
Footballguy
I completely agree with BostonFred here. Great points. No more needs to be said supporting his potential imo. I already have Leinart as my #2 QB in many leagues this off season. Great discussion but I am surprised that more people don't see it Fred's way. I really fell that people underestimate how much Fitzgerald's talent will help Leinart.
bagger
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
FYI - Urban is no longer with the team. He is in KC now.
SammyJankis
Footballguy
From ASFN message board regarding day 1 of training camp. Leinart looking good. Anderson, not so much:
bagger
Footballguy
:bwih:
Hi Folks.
If you weren't already worried about Cardinals QB Matt Lienart, it's officially time to start. ESPN and the Arizona Republic are reporting that QB Derek Anderson will start this Saturday's game.
Link: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardinals/...n-starting.html
Clipped from the Kent Somers article: Derek Anderson will start at quarterback on Saturday night in Chicago.
Coach Ken Whisenhunt said he was disappointed in the offensive production in the first two preseason games.
"I don't think we performed the way we want to perform on offense this preseason and we're going to look at a number of different players in different spots," Whisenhunt said.
Matt Leinart, who had been the starter, will play the second quarter and start the second half.
Whisenhunt stressed the move is not necessarily permanant and that he wanted to see how both quarterbacks would handle their different roles.
[[[[[[[[[[ OUR VIEW ]]]]]]]]]]]]]
Neither QB looked good in last week's action. Lienart struggled and then Anderson started off with a nice pass then looked bad around the goal line. We've had a hard time getting excited about Leinart as the starter and it sounds like coach Whisenhunt is feeling a bit of the same. We all know how important these Week 3 Preseason games are. As the article says above, the move is "not necessarily permanent" but the fact they're even talking this way is clearly a huge red flag for Lienart. Stay away here until we see how this plays out.
Hi Folks.
If you weren't already worried about Cardinals QB Matt Lienart, it's officially time to start. ESPN and the Arizona Republic are reporting that QB Derek Anderson will start this Saturday's game.
Link: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardinals/...n-starting.html
Clipped from the Kent Somers article: Derek Anderson will start at quarterback on Saturday night in Chicago.
Coach Ken Whisenhunt said he was disappointed in the offensive production in the first two preseason games.
"I don't think we performed the way we want to perform on offense this preseason and we're going to look at a number of different players in different spots," Whisenhunt said.
Matt Leinart, who had been the starter, will play the second quarter and start the second half.
Whisenhunt stressed the move is not necessarily permanant and that he wanted to see how both quarterbacks would handle their different roles.
[[[[[[[[[[ OUR VIEW ]]]]]]]]]]]]]
Neither QB looked good in last week's action. Lienart struggled and then Anderson started off with a nice pass then looked bad around the goal line. We've had a hard time getting excited about Leinart as the starter and it sounds like coach Whisenhunt is feeling a bit of the same. We all know how important these Week 3 Preseason games are. As the article says above, the move is "not necessarily permanent" but the fact they're even talking this way is clearly a huge red flag for Lienart. Stay away here until we see how this plays out.
kutta
Footballguy
Improves, but not by much.Of course, I think all the skill guys on the Cards are ranked way too high on most cheatsheets as it is, so improving them on my rankings may not match what others have.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
I had to bump this thread after listening to the FBG Lexycast discussion on Leinart and how he "did not have the respect of the locker room". I am not a huge Favre fan, but he has all the intangibles and he understands what it takes to win. Leinart has ZERO intangibles and I doubt we see him start another NFL game.The big impact here is on Fitz. I have been avoiding him in all drafts assuming he was going to get blown up by safeties, complements of Leinarts' limp wristed floater balls down the middle. Derek Anderson may not be a good QB either, but he is not afraid to chuck the ball deep. Fitz numbers have a much better outlook now that the Cardinals have seen the light before the season started.
bagger
Footballguy
dude.anyway, from local radio this seems to be completely driven by fitzgerald. apparently he is throwing a fit that he thinks leinart "will kill him" if he is the qb hanging him out to dry. apparently the two addressed the issue a couple days ago but this ship may have sailed.
it seems that nobody is coming to leinart's defense to not get on fitz's bad side.
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Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
A lot of staff and long time posters in this thread backing Leinart and the Arizona offense early in the summer. Way to call it early.......Leinart is a bum and that's all you needed to know. Those numbers last year were put up by a HOF QB in my opinion and losing him as well as a STUD like Boldin and expecting even close to similar numbers for a guy like Leinart was wishful thinking to be kind.
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