Survivor Cagayan (1 Viewer)

[Daywalker]

Tony playing it horrible. He has the super idol and a regular idol. He is set. He should be setting his sights on jury votes and who he wants to go up against during that immunity challenge when he can't play the idols any longer.

Jefra was the perfect ally. Tony should have been looking to take Jefra and Kass to the final three. He should have been looking to go up against Jefra, Kass and Woo in the final immunity challenge. Tasha and Spencer are bigger threats then Kass, Trish, Woo and Jefra on all fronts.

Instead he has pissed off a lot of jury members and hurt his chances in that immunity challenge. Not much reason to with the super idol. He likely was safe this tribal after telling Spencer and Tasha to vote Jefra.

Spencer and Tasha have already said they would give their jury vote to Tony. Of course they are trying to leverage that but it is likely true if Tony's alliance just sits there and does nothing.

* I like how Kass thought she was Columbo when speculating Spencer had the idol last week. I mean he only found the clue before everyone. She is such a miserable person.

* Jefra looked mighty good in those tight shorts.

* Tasha was hoping Survivor would pull a fast one and hand her an advantage after Spencer and Tony drew rocks. Nope. Producers handing it to Tony. Tasha should have probably drew rocks but I understand her reasoning. Would seem like a "Survivor" like ploy to hand out a better clue afterwards. Jeff was overly-dramatic with the showdown. Would have been cool if Tasha was rewarded.

* Tasha dominating challenges like no other female I can remember recently.

 

[snogger]

Devil's advocate here.

Getting rid of Jefra was not the right play tonight. Getting rid of Kass would have been the right play. She, at least, made one move in the game whereas Jefra has done nothing. Jefra is a perfect 3a along with Trish being 3b. If I'm Tony, I get rid of Kass and Trish coming up with a possible Woo/Spencer thrown in.

The only players this time are Spencer, Tash and Tony. If those three are in the final 3... best final three ever?

I get what you are saying.. But as mentioned above I don't think Kass is liked by any and thus is the "I want to be sitting next to her in the final 3" person this season.

 

[HughHoney]

They've given out a clue to an immunity idol and an advantage in the next challenge at the auctions so it's not a terrible move by Tasha.

Kass sucks.

Tony could coast to final 4 with all the idols he has but he decides to blindside somebody who A. Wouldn't get many votes at final and B. Will probably not vote for him now because of the blindside. He's playing to hard.

Kass sucks.

I wanna motorboat Tasha.

Kass sucks.

 

[HughHoney]

I would love to go on this show. I think it'd beat me down mentally being out there with nothing but your thoughts and the constant mental stress of having to play the game at all times but man it'd be an experience. The competition, the cash, Morgan's boobs. I'd give it a go.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Devil's advocate here.

Getting rid of Jefra was not the right play tonight. Getting rid of Kass would have been the right play. She, at least, made one move in the game whereas Jefra has done nothing. Jefra is a perfect 3a along with Trish being 3b. If I'm Tony, I get rid of Kass and Trish coming up with a possible Woo/Spencer thrown in.

The only players this time are Spencer, Tash and Tony. If those three are in the final 3... best final three ever?

I get what you are saying.. But as mentioned above I don't think Kass is liked by any and thus is the "I want to be sitting next to her in the final 3" person this season.

I imagine if somehow Kass is setting next to Spencer at a final tribal, every time she speaks the camera will focus on Spencer's

 

[Jayrok]

The only players this time are Spencer, Tash and Tony. If those three are in the final 3... best final three ever?

That would be an awesome finale and all 3 would likely get votes.

Great TC last night and it sets up for a fine finish.

 

[TLEF316]

I think Tony still has some potential paths to victory. If the final 3 is him, Kass and Trish, he could probably get the following votes....

-Woo (assuming he doesn't do something to screw him over down the stretch)

-Morgan (because she hates the bitter old crones)

-Spencer (respects Tony for big moves)

-Tasha (seems to be on the same page as Spencer on this)

-Jeremiah (again, he seems relatively level headed and might respect the game play)

I don't think he'd have any chance of getting Jefra, LJ, Sarah just based on the faces they're making on the jury.

He could also maybe go Tony, Trish/Kass and Woo. Woo might get 1 or 2 "likeable guy who didn't screw me" votes but I don't think he'd play well in front of a jury. In this scenario, he could probably still get votes from Spencer, Tasha, Morgan and Jeremiah.

All that being said, I think he'll find some way to unnecessarily be a #### in these last 2 weeks that will cost him at least 1 vote.

 

[Jayrok]

Tony playing it horrible. He has the super idol and a regular idol. He is set. He should be setting his sights on jury votes and who he wants to go up against during that immunity challenge when he can't play the idols any longer.

Jefra was the perfect ally. Tony should have been looking to take Jefra and Kass to the final three. He should have been looking to go up against Jefra, Kass and Woo in the final immunity challenge. Tasha and Spencer are bigger threats then Kass, Trish, Woo and Jefra on all fronts.

Instead he has pissed off a lot of jury members and hurt his chances in that immunity challenge. Not much reason to with the super idol. He likely was safe this tribal after telling Spencer and Tasha to vote Jefra.

Spencer and Tasha have already said they would give their jury vote to Tony. Of course they are trying to leverage that but it is likely true if Tony's alliance just sits there and does nothing.

* I like how Kass thought she was Columbo when speculating Spencer had the idol last week. I mean he only found the clue before everyone. She is such a miserable person.

* Jefra looked mighty good in those tight shorts.

* Tasha was hoping Survivor would pull a fast one and hand her an advantage after Spencer and Tony drew rocks. Nope. Producers handing it to Tony. Tasha should have probably drew rocks but I understand her reasoning. Would seem like a "Survivor" like ploy to hand out a better clue afterwards. Jeff was overly-dramatic with the showdown. Would have been cool if Tasha was rewarded.

* Tasha dominating challenges like no other female I can remember recently.

Good points all around. I agree that Tony should be setting his sights on prepping the jury and who he wants to face in the last immunity challenge.

History shows that the last challenge is endurance but not strength. Stand on a pole or a floating square. Those are usually suited best for the women, the smaller the better. I wouldn't want Trish and Jefra or Woo in that one if I were Tony.

I'm still pulling for Spence and/or Tasha, but Tony deserves the win if he can hang on.

 

[Tony Jabroni]

I would like to have sex with Jefra. Blue is her color.

 

[TLEF316]

I would like to have sex with Jefra. Blue is her color.

She's definitely a cute girl but something about her just doesn't do it for me. Maybe I'll change my mind once she's all done up (she looks good in her pageant pictures) , but she just doesn't seem to have a sexual bone (pun not intended) in her entire body. She's just kinda this cute lump.

The voice might be clouding my judgement a little bit. Can't stand that accent.

 

[Jayrok]

So if Kass (or Woo) and Trish jump with Spence/Tash and make it 4-2 against Tony and Kass (or Woo), Tony is still safe from blindside for the next 2 tribal councils. Plus he has a chance to win immunity in the challenge. So if they try to trick him he just waits for the vote then plays the special idol. In that scenario, he could manuever it where it could come down to him and his only ally against two of the others in the final 4. That would make the last challenge epic.

Since they busted up the apple cart, who knows what will happen? This show is great when it shapes up like this.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Tony might be playing too hard (ala Russell).

Ya think? He got paranoid about being blindsided, being the first player in like 10 years who can't be blindsided. His special idol gives him all the protection he needs. Plus the spare idol. He could coast to final 3 without making any moves.

agreed. Now that he is pretty much good to go be needs to work on building those votes with the jury. Key is usually having someone on your side to argue your case while at ponderosa.

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

It doesn't seem like it is that much of a bitter jury so far this year. I think everyone hates Kass but I would think Tony is in pretty good shape. Granted, I think he should have taking out Spencer as he is more of a threat in challenges and someone who could get votes if he makes it to the final 3. The previews for next week are laughable, exactly how does Kass and crew think they are going to take out Tony? I realize they don't know he has 2 idols but they do know he has one. While you can question some of Tony's moves, he has dominated game play this season and if he makes it to the final he should win easily.

 

[rick6668]

This show is great when it shapes up like this.

 

[Jayrok]

It doesn't seem like it is that much of a bitter jury so far this year. I think everyone hates Kass but I would think Tony is in pretty good shape. Granted, I think he should have taking out Spencer as he is more of a threat in challenges and someone who could get votes if he makes it to the final 3. The previews for next week are laughable, exactly how does Kass and crew think they are going to take out Tony? I realize they don't know he has 2 idols but they do know he has one. While you can question some of Tony's moves, he has dominated game play this season and if he makes it to the final he should win easily.

They know he has the one but not the special one. But he has shown that he will use it for someone else if he thinks he needs to. I guess they'll try to trick him into using it on Woo or someone while they secretly vote him. But that will backfire on them too since he can play the other one after the vote.

I think Tony wins the final vote, but it will be close if he is up against Spence and/or Tash (especially Tash IMO). Against anyone else I could see it a landslide.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Tash played Tony like a 25 cent kazoo. Piece of cake for her to get his mind stirred up by doing nothing except lounging with the girls in the ocean.

Three straight immunities, quietly strategic, loyal alliance member, she's played a great game. Tony has to get rid of her (especially) and Spencer to win IMO. And yet somehow he basically allied with them last night. No way Kass and Trish are going to have anything to do with him after two straight surprises at tribal.

 

[rick6668]

It doesn't seem like it is that much of a bitter jury so far this year. I think everyone hates Kass but I would think Tony is in pretty good shape. Granted, I think he should have taking out Spencer as he is more of a threat in challenges and someone who could get votes if he makes it to the final 3. The previews for next week are laughable, exactly how does Kass and crew think they are going to take out Tony? I realize they don't know he has 2 idols but they do know he has one. While you can question some of Tony's moves, he has dominated game play this season and if he makes it to the final he should win easily.

I wonder if this is setting up to them thinking they are blindsiding Tony, Tony doesn't play his regular Immunity Idol, gets the most votes, plays his special idol to the shock of everyone including the jury. Only question is, who get's voted out? Do they all vote for Tony so Tony's vote decides who goes home?

 

[stbugs]

Tash played Tony like a 25 cent kazoo. Piece of cake for her to get his mind stirred up by doing nothing except lounging with the girls in the ocean.

Three straight immunities, quietly strategic, loyal alliance member, she's played a great game. Tony has to get rid of her (especially) and Spencer to win IMO. And yet somehow he basically allied with them last night. No way Kass and Trish are going to have anything to do with him after two straight surprises at tribal.

Spencer and Tash both played him perfectly. I wonder if they discussed it together, but you had Spencer planting the seeds about the girls ganging up together at the same time as Tasha is swimming with them to get Tony to think the same thing. They didn't show them discussing it together before that happened, but after Tony mentioned Jefra to Spencer, you could tell those two are together in their voting to stay alive.

Spencer and Tash should be the winners if they make it to the end. Hard to decide between both as they have both played great socially and challenge-wise.

 

[dhockster]

Tony is the first ADHD player in terms of strategy. He is easily distracted and changes his mind as the wind blows.

On the jury:

-Sarah, who Tony lied to about being a cop.

-Morgan, who doesn't like Tony

-LJ, who Tony blindsided

-Jeremiah, who was not in Tony's alliance

-Jefra, who Tony blindsided and also blindsided her alliance member, LJ

Tony has Russell Hantz'ed this tribe and I think they will look for reasons not to vote for him.

Also, at four, if he does not win immunity, he is likely to be voted out because he has been the most strategic player, and the other players will worry that the jury will vote for him for that reason.

If I am Trish, Tash or Spencer, I am looking to try and sit next to Kass and Woo in the finals. Kass, because she is unliked, and Woo, because all he did was follow Tony.

 

[stbugs]

Also, getting rid of Jefra IMHO was not a bad move. Trish, Kass and Jefra would want to get rid of Woo and Tony before the final 3, so Tony has to make a bit of a move. He needs Woo as no one would vote for Woo over him and Trish (or if you have to Kass). With all of the beauties on the jury, I think Jefra would get more votes than people think. LJ definitely, Jeremiah maybe, Sarah and Boobs maybe as well if bitter. I don't see Jefra winning, but I think she would do better against Tony than Trish and Kass would because none of the jury really likes them enough to not vote for Tony as a better player.

This week will be a good week if there is a lot of dissent over Tony. If Spencer and Tash are smart, they stick with Tony and his idols. The problem is that if they try to flush the idol, who is the martyr to take the split votes?

 

[Sarnoff]

I'll say it again, after the Blood vs. Water season which introduced a new dynamic which made Survivor interesting again, and this season, which has been one of the most unpredictable seasons ever, it's like a Survivor renaissance is going on. This show is awesome after years of suck.

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

Also, getting rid of Jefra IMHO was not a bad move. Trish, Kass and Jefra would want to get rid of Woo and Tony before the final 3, so Tony has to make a bit of a move. He needs Woo as no one would vote for Woo over him and Trish (or if you have to Kass). With all of the beauties on the jury, I think Jefra would get more votes than people think. LJ definitely, Jeremiah maybe, Sarah and Boobs maybe as well if bitter. I don't see Jefra winning, but I think she would do better against Tony than Trish and Kass would because none of the jury really likes them enough to not vote for Tony as a better player.

This week will be a good week if there is a lot of dissent over Tony. If Spencer and Tash are smart, they stick with Tony and his idols. The problem is that if they try to flush the idol, who is the martyr to take the split votes?

The numbers don't add up for them to split votes and flush out the idol. Their play has to be to blindside Tony by aligning with him to vote out Spencer or Tash and making Tony feel secure so he doesn't play the idol. A decent plan except for the fact that Tony has the special idol. If it plays out that way, the interesting thing will be who Spencer and Tash vote for in that scenario. They need to realize that Tony could play an idol so in order to avoid one of them going home they need to vote either Woo, Kass or Trish.

 

[blend]

It doesn't seem like it is that much of a bitter jury so far this year. I think everyone hates Kass but I would think Tony is in pretty good shape. Granted, I think he should have taking out Spencer as he is more of a threat in challenges and someone who could get votes if he makes it to the final 3. The previews for next week are laughable, exactly how does Kass and crew think they are going to take out Tony? I realize they don't know he has 2 idols but they do know he has one. While you can question some of Tony's moves, he has dominated game play this season and if he makes it to the final he should win easily.

I wonder if this is setting up to them thinking they are blindsiding Tony, Tony doesn't play his regular Immunity Idol, gets the most votes, plays his special idol to the shock of everyone including the jury. Only question is, who get's voted out? Do they all vote for Tony so Tony's vote decides who goes home?

This is what I was wondering too...

 

[Sarnoff]

Yeah, Brains got a huge boost in the tribe switch. They teased it in the opening segment, night of the tribal before the switch, when Spenser said "All that's between us and final 3 is two whole tribes". It could actually happen.

I keep thinking about this moment. Almost there.

 

[McGarnicle]

If Tony pulls this off, it comes down to which jury members acknowledge his gameplay despite any blindsides, and which ones decide to take revenge. That's always unpredictable, going all the way back to the first Survivor. I was shocked Richard Hatch won that thing after screwing pretty much everyone. In the end, a certain amount of respect is gained when you're able to navigate strategically all the way to the end.

 

[Sarnoff]

Also, getting rid of Jefra IMHO was not a bad move. Trish, Kass and Jefra would want to get rid of Woo and Tony before the final 3, so Tony has to make a bit of a move. He needs Woo as no one would vote for Woo over him and Trish (or if you have to Kass). With all of the beauties on the jury, I think Jefra would get more votes than people think. LJ definitely, Jeremiah maybe, Sarah and Boobs maybe as well if bitter. I don't see Jefra winning, but I think she would do better against Tony than Trish and Kass would because none of the jury really likes them enough to not vote for Tony as a better player.

This week will be a good week if there is a lot of dissent over Tony. If Spencer and Tash are smart, they stick with Tony and his idols. The problem is that if they try to flush the idol, who is the martyr to take the split votes?

The numbers don't add up for them to split votes and flush out the idol. Their play has to be to blindside Tony by aligning with him to vote out Spencer or Tash and making Tony feel secure so he doesn't play the idol. A decent plan except for the fact that Tony has the special idol. If it plays out that way, the interesting thing will be who Spencer and Tash vote for in that scenario. They need to realize that Tony could play an idol so in order to avoid one of them going home they need to vote either Woo, Kass or Trish.

Well, they could all 5 say they're all going to vote Tony, but make him feel like he doesn't have to play the idol. Then Spenser could pull back Tasha and say "But just in case he does, you and I should vote Woo." 3 on Tony (including oblivious Woo), 2 on Woo, and Tony's vote for whoever.

Not that getting rid of Woo gets them anywhere, really, as now it's 4-1 and Tony has to play the regular idol anyway next time. But this isn't an "alliance" that's going to feel betrayal after backstabbing and blindsides, it's so fractured and dysfunctional at this point that it's really every one for themselves and there's lots of room to make moves without worrying about hurt feelings.

 

[dhockster]

Based on the previews, I think the other players will try to get Tony to play the idol he has by making him think they are voting for him. They will then vote for Woo. Tony will use his known idol on Woo. If somehow he uses it on Woo and they vote Tony, he can always save himself with his special idol.

Tony and Woo's vote will determine who gets voted out.

Since Tony is still paranoid about the girl guy ratio, a girl will be the target. Tasha, if she doesn't win immunity, Kass or Trish if she does.

 

[Jayrok]

Spencer and Tash should be the winners if they make it to the end. Hard to decide between both as they have both played great socially and challenge-wise.

I think if these two make it to the end Tash would get more votes. In fact, if Tash is in the final 3, I say she wins. Tony needs Kass and Woo (or Trish). If he can pull that off, then the only votes he wouldn't get would be from a bitter voter IMO.

He would be dumb not to get rid of Tash as dominant as she's been in challenges and her social game.

 

[BassNBrew]

So many ways Tony can play this. If he can hang onto both idols, he can save someone as they go from 5 to 4.

 

[Jayrok]

Based on the previews, I think the other players will try to get Tony to play the idol he has by making him think they are voting for him. They will then vote for Woo. Tony will use his known idol on Woo. If somehow he uses it on Woo and they vote Tony, he can always save himself with his special idol.

Tony and Woo's vote will determine who gets voted out.

Since Tony is still paranoid about the girl guy ratio, a girl will be the target. Tasha, if she doesn't win immunity, Kass or Trish if she does.

I think he votes Trish or Kass off too (if Tash wins immunity), but he is taking a chance by keeping Spence in the game.. especially if he uses both idols and is vulnerable in the final 5. He would then have to win immunity challenge or he's gone since the remaining two girls and Spence would finally kill him. Tony's best chance is if he gets to keep at least one of his idols past the next TC.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

.... I was shocked Richard Hatch won that thing after screwing pretty much everyone. In the end, a certain amount of respect is gained when you're able to navigate strategically all the way to the end.

I wonder what Survivor would have looked like over all of these years if Kelly had only had a different facial expression, different attitude when Greg asked her for a number from 1 to 10.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Spencer and Tash should be the winners if they make it to the end. Hard to decide between both as they have both played great socially and challenge-wise.

I think if these two make it to the end Tash would get more votes. In fact, if Tash is in the final 3, I say she wins. Tony needs Kass and Woo (or Trish). If he can pull that off, then the only votes he wouldn't get would be from a bitter voter IMO.

He would be dumb not to get rid of Tash as dominant as she's been in challenges and her social game.

If Tony has to go to the final three with one of Tash or Spencer, maybe he should go with both of them and hope they split the vote. Still don't think it adds up in his favor, but at some point soon he might be fearing that Tash is unbeatable in immunity challenges and this is the only play.

 

[Jayrok]

Spencer and Tash should be the winners if they make it to the end. Hard to decide between both as they have both played great socially and challenge-wise.

I think if these two make it to the end Tash would get more votes. In fact, if Tash is in the final 3, I say she wins. Tony needs Kass and Woo (or Trish). If he can pull that off, then the only votes he wouldn't get would be from a bitter voter IMO.

He would be dumb not to get rid of Tash as dominant as she's been in challenges and her social game.

If Tony has to go to the final three with one of Tash or Spencer, maybe he should go with both of them and hope they split the vote. Still don't think it adds up in his favor, but at some point soon he might be fearing that Tash is unbeatable in immunity challenges and this is the only play.

Interesting. His main target at this point has to be Tash. Same goes for Spencer too actually but I don't see him stabbing her in the back. Although you never know.

 

[roarlions]

Just throwing this out there as a possibility. My son reads message boards devoted to Survivor and there have been rumors throughout this season that there will be a final 2 instead of a final 3. If that is the case, that could affect how many TC's are left for Tony to use his idols.

 

[Aerial Assault]

Someone please, please, please end The Tony Show.

 

[biggamer3]

Love Tony as a viewer, he is so fun to watch as he makes the game nutty every week with his antics. But this was such a horrible move that will for sure cost him 1 Million IMO. He should have been buttering up Kass and Trish as a final 3 pact, even if they "blindsided" him this week he was in because of super idol and he had another one for next week. No reason to rock the boat now, no one trusts him and everyone will be gunning for him at final 4 immunity where Spencer is a way better competitor than Jefra

 

[Jayrok]

Love Tony as a viewer, he is so fun to watch as he makes the game nutty every week with his antics. But this was such a horrible move that will for sure cost him 1 Million IMO. He should have been buttering up Kass and Trish as a final 3 pact, even if they "blindsided" him this week he was in because of super idol and he had another one for next week. No reason to rock the boat now, no one trusts him and everyone will be gunning for him at final 4 immunity where Spencer is a way better competitor than Jefra

Jefra was voted out. I didn't like Tony at first but he's playing a good game. He just thinks too much for his own good. There are so many scenarios that can play out now with what he did last night.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

should have voted out kass or spencer. best possible final 3 for tony was jefra and woo.

 

[HughHoney]

Can anybody explain why they're saying Tony should take <insert any name aside from Trish> to final tribal? Does anybody think she'd receive 1 vote?

 

[dhockster]

Just throwing this out there as a possibility. My son reads message boards devoted to Survivor and there have been rumors throughout this season that there will be a final 2 instead of a final 3. If that is the case, that could affect how many TC's are left for Tony to use his idols.

How many shows are left? If it is 2 regular and then the 2 hour finale then they are probably going to a final two (6 to 5, 5 to 4, 4 to 2 in the finale). If it is 1 regular and then the 2 hour finale then they are probably doing a final three (6 to 5, 5 to 3 in the finale)

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

with the current 5, this has to be the most attractive jury ever.

 

[Jayrok]

with the current 5, this has to be the most attractive jury ever.

good point. Mostly pretty people up there.

 

[roarlions]

Just throwing this out there as a possibility. My son reads message boards devoted to Survivor and there have been rumors throughout this season that there will be a final 2 instead of a final 3. If that is the case, that could affect how many TC's are left for Tony to use his idols.

How many shows are left? If it is 2 regular and then the 2 hour finale then they are probably going to a final two (6 to 5, 5 to 4, 4 to 2 in the finale). If it is 1 regular and then the 2 hour finale then they are probably doing a final three (6 to 5, 5 to 3 in the finale)

The finale is Wed. May 21st, so 2 more episodes before then.

 

[Jayrok]

Finale is usually on a Sunday where they do the final two TCs in a two hour episode.

 

[dhockster]

Just throwing this out there as a possibility. My son reads message boards devoted to Survivor and there have been rumors throughout this season that there will be a final 2 instead of a final 3. If that is the case, that could affect how many TC's are left for Tony to use his idols.

How many shows are left? If it is 2 regular and then the 2 hour finale then they are probably going to a final two (6 to 5, 5 to 4, 4 to 2 in the finale). If it is 1 regular and then the 2 hour finale then they are probably doing a final three (6 to 5, 5 to 3 in the finale)

The finale is Wed. May 21st, so 2 more episodes before then.

So it looks like a final two is a real possibility.

 

[DCThunder]

Finale has to be Sunday the 18th, I'd think. They don't want the finale to be Memorial Day weekend (5/25).

 

[roarlions]

Finale has to be Sunday the 18th, I'd think. They don't want the finale to be Memorial Day weekend (5/25).

Finale is not on a Sunday this season, finishing on Wed. night instead, including the reunion show.

 

[identikit]

.... I was shocked Richard Hatch won that thing after screwing pretty much everyone. In the end, a certain amount of respect is gained when you're able to navigate strategically all the way to the end.

I wonder what Survivor would have looked like over all of these years if Kelly had only had a different facial expression, different attitude when Greg asked her for a number from 1 to 10.

Always thought she was a better choice than Hatch.

 

[Courtjester]

So you basically have 3 groups of two right now and it comes down to how Kass comes back to camp and if she goes off on Tony. if that happens, then Tony will be insulted, lose sight of who the real threats are (Spencer and Tash) and maybe try and get her off.

However, I bet Spencer and Tash try and get the two girls in (the previews show them dragging Woo in but why?). They all agree to go Tony. Tony plays it tough and keeps the regular idol around his neck and doesn't play it. Jeff announces the vote and Tony gets at least 4 votes, He plays the special Idol and either Tash or Spencer go home. I would like to see him go Kass if she really goes off on him, but I just can't see him doing that at this point and especially since the preview edit wants you to believe that.

 

[The Dude]

It helps if they have Woo as a solid 5 against Tony. They put 3 votes on Tony and 2 on Kass (wishful thinking) - Tony still survives but he doesn;t decide who goes home.

The bogus idol has too much power. At worst, they should make the owner play it during the vote - so there is still an element of risk. Say they read 4 votes and it's Tony 2 votes and Spencer 2 with 2 left. He should have to decide to play it before seeing all the votes.