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Survivor Cagayan (1 Viewer)

Tony is over-thinking the game. Cliff was right when he compared it to the NBA finals... the game/series doesn't really start until you lose. Then you see who is actually on your side and who isn't. For the last two seasons many of the people scramble too fast to start getting rid of strong players. It's all about numbers for the first several immunity challenges. Why get rid of your best challenge player when you don't have to? Makes no sense.

It seems simple, get into the merge with your best numbers, whether you like your tribemates or not. You do that by winning challenges and not going to tribal council. After you merge, then the blindsides begin. People seem to just want to start blindsiding people as soon as the get off the boat.
I can't defend Tony but I won't rip him either. They chose not to show his real line of thinking, or maybe there wasn't a line of thinking... but he was the clear #4 in Cliff's alliance so if he feels like his lot has improved and he now has more room to move, I can't really argue.

 
LJ still my clear favorite. Dude has made a lot of good reads. I'm sure he's getting the benefit of edits, but kudos to him so far.

Where are the gifs of Lindsey's ### during the pole challenge and Morgan cleaning out her cleavage??

 
lol fraking dumb tribe. The dude is 6'10" and won that challenge for them. lol
And just when I thought Tony was playing a good game. Now, he is #4 in a tribe with 2 beauties and a brawn who is far more loyal to the beauties than him. Woo and Lindsey are now the next to go, his only real potential loyal ally is the cop lady on the other team. Alexis and Jeremiah are still on the other tribe, so now that he has alienated Woo and Lindsey, his best bet is being the bottom of the 4 beauties + old lady. Throw in the fact that his cop lady appears to not be in the power group on her tribe and his not getting rid of LJ with an idol in hand was a really bad move. He isn't a good player. He just did well getting the idol and got lucky that the cop lady is naive as hell.
He doesn't know the bolded. You are blending info that we the viewers know about with what he knows.

 
The brains are going to ride the fact the other two tribes are playing personal a long way.
:goodposting:

They went from being dessimated (sp?) to now in control of not only their tribe, but possibly the whole game depending on how things shake up between now and the merge.

 
Now that would be something. If one of these brains win this thing... how dumb does that make the other tribes? And, cop lady is in a decent position. She said it herself. She is in a tribe of 7 with a 3-3 split and her. She is the swing vote unless the other six simply decide to knock her off when given the chance. She needs to play her cards right so I expect her to be voted out first from that new tribe.
Did you watch the same episode I did? You have all the other people not counting the cop lady wanting to join up with the brains. She is not really in a good position unless she also chooses to join with the brains. But they didn't show that.

The other 6 know that the brawn did not lose anyone prior to the mixup. They might all decide to get rid of cop lady just from a pure numbers pov.

 
Great reaction shots of Woo & Lindsay at the vote. Total open-mouth shock. Lindsay is toast, she hasn't done #### all game and now it's time for her to pay up. No wonder it looks like she quits.

 
LJ still my clear favorite. Dude has made a lot of good reads. I'm sure he's getting the benefit of edits, but kudos to him so far.

Where are the gifs of Lindsey's ### during the pole challenge and Morgan cleaning out her cleavage??
They dam near ended up in a 69. I thought tickling would have been a better tactic to get people off the pole faster.

 
LJ still my clear favorite. Dude has made a lot of good reads. I'm sure he's getting the benefit of edits, but kudos to him so far.

Where are the gifs of Lindsey's ### during the pole challenge and Morgan cleaning out her cleavage??
Or Alexis's ### when she walked up to the shelter?

 
If the Brains Three stick together they might go a long way.

Three Brains + whoever they bring with them (tight)

vs.

LJ, Miss KY, malnuTrish and Tony (not tight, but two idols)

 
If the Brains Three stick together they might go a long way.

Three Brains + whoever they bring with them (tight)

vs.

LJ, Miss KY, malnuTrish and Tony (not tight, but two idols)
If the brains are smart, they align with boobs. She is the only beauty that really isn't in with her tribe and if they are brains, it should be pretty obvious that she isn't. The other two told them that.

This would be a 100% winning scenario. Align with boobs and lady cop, hope Tony comes through in merge, so they have 6 at the merge and they keep boobs and get rid of the cops and then get rid of boobs. Barring their squad losing every challenge, they have the other beauties as a buffer to lose and it should be apparent that Tony is part of the 4 after they see Cliff get the boot.

Honestly, it is absolutely laid out on a platter for them.

 
Yeah, Brains got a huge boost in the tribe switch. They teased it in the opening segment, night of the tribal before the switch, when Spenser said "All that's between us and final 3 is two whole tribes". It could actually happen.

The odds of all 3 ending up on the same team after the switch are really about 50/50. Elsewhere people are saying it's rigged but it's entirely possible. No matter how they pick, at least 2 of the 3 are going to be on the same tribe. So it's just a matter of the third picking the same color as the other two, nearly 50/50 (actually with 14 people, 2 having picked orange, it was 5/12, slightly better than 40/60, close enough).

 
If the Brains Three stick together they might go a long way.

Three Brains + whoever they bring with them (tight)

vs.

LJ, Miss KY, malnuTrish and Tony (not tight, but two idols)
If the brains are smart, they align with boobs. She is the only beauty that really isn't in with her tribe and if they are brains, it should be pretty obvious that she isn't. The other two told them that.

This would be a 100% winning scenario. Align with boobs and lady cop, hope Tony comes through in merge, so they have 6 at the merge and they keep boobs and get rid of the cops and then get rid of boobs. Barring their squad losing every challenge, they have the other beauties as a buffer to lose and it should be apparent that Tony is part of the 4 after they see Cliff get the boot.

Honestly, it is absolutely laid out on a platter for them.
:lmao:

 
Agree the brains should go with Morgan. She was the only beauty not shown trying to flip so I think there is something up with that. Add in them showing her saying the others are tight with LJ and him still there they should be able to start connecting the dots.

 
If the Brains Three stick together they might go a long way.

Three Brains + whoever they bring with them (tight)

vs.

LJ, Miss KY, malnuTrish and Tony (not tight, but two idols)
If the brains are smart, they align with boobs. She is the only beauty that really isn't in with her tribe and if they are brains, it should be pretty obvious that she isn't. The other two told them that.

This would be a 100% winning scenario. Align with boobs and lady cop, hope Tony comes through in merge, so they have 6 at the merge and they keep boobs and get rid of the cops and then get rid of boobs. Barring their squad losing every challenge, they have the other beauties as a buffer to lose and it should be apparent that Tony is part of the 4 after they see Cliff get the boot.

Honestly, it is absolutely laid out on a platter for them.
:lmao:
What would be so difficult? If they secure Morgan (pretty easy since she is not with the rest of the beauties and they know that), getting the lady cop should be pretty easy as well. Tony would flop for a nickel and doesn't care for the old lady and definitely sees LJ as a threat.

Feel free to give me the holes in the thought process. It is easy to armchair QB, but it isn't like they have to dig for this. Morgan, Alexis and Jeremiah have spilled the beans on beauty already. Seeing Cliff should be a screaming advertisement for brawn blowing up and LJ and Jefra being with a couple brawn folks. If brawn doesn't blow up, it would have been one of the beauties going home. Sarah will probably tell them that Lindsay and Woo are next.

Like I said, this is like solving a 4 piece puzzle. That said, are they smart enough to put it all together and not flop on Spencer again and blow up their own easy road to the final? I don't know that, but holy cow is this unrolling about as good as it could unroll for the brains.

 
I believe Tony is dumb enough to keep flipping with every vote and in his mind he's playing a stategic game.
Perhaps, he is playing a high risk high reward game. Voting against the biggest group and constantly breaking alliances has been a winning strategy in the past, but mostly it gets you outed.

It reminds me of Sandra's anyone but me strategy. It is a tricky act to be the person that everyone has to work with to be the swing most of the time.

At this point however Tony is no Sandra.

 
I can totally see the brains,Morgan,Sarah and Tony has the final 6.
Agreed, and if the brains are smart, Morgan is their 4th. Then you have at worst a 2-2-2 tie to get rid of an idol and no chance at losing. Not sure if the brains will stay together and of course individual immunity challenges can easily mess things up, but they have the road paved for them if they watch the clues and don't eff it up.

 
LJ still my clear favorite. Dude has made a lot of good reads. I'm sure he's getting the benefit of edits, but kudos to him so far.

Where are the gifs of Lindsey's ### during the pole challenge and Morgan cleaning out her cleavage??
Or Alexis's ### when she walked up to the shelter?
This is the gif I want to see! LOTS of excellent gif potential from last night for sure.

 
my stupid DVR refused to record Survivor last night. Time Warner equipment sucks.

I watched the last 10 minutes so I saw the tribal, but missed everything leading up to it and the requisite T&A. :rant:

 
LJ still my clear favorite. Dude has made a lot of good reads. I'm sure he's getting the benefit of edits, but kudos to him so far.

Where are the gifs of Lindsey's ### during the pole challenge and Morgan cleaning out her cleavage??
Or Alexis's ### when she walked up to the shelter?
This is the gif I want to see! LOTS of excellent gif potential from last night for sure.
Could only find a still.

But then there's this.

 
Yeah, Brains got a huge boost in the tribe switch. They teased it in the opening segment, night of the tribal before the switch, when Spenser said "All that's between us and final 3 is two whole tribes". It could actually happen.

The odds of all 3 ending up on the same team after the switch are really about 50/50. Elsewhere people are saying it's rigged but it's entirely possible. No matter how they pick, at least 2 of the 3 are going to be on the same tribe. So it's just a matter of the third picking the same color as the other two, nearly 50/50 (actually with 14 people, 2 having picked orange, it was 5/12, slightly better than 40/60, close enough).
no, it was a 25% chance. 8 possible combos; only 2 of which have all 3 on same team.

 
I could see Tony flipping back to Woo and Lindsay by making himself the target and then using his idol to blindside the other 3. Not saying he is smart enough to do that, but I think it is possible. He would certainly be in a better position within his tribe.

 
Yeah, Brains got a huge boost in the tribe switch. They teased it in the opening segment, night of the tribal before the switch, when Spenser said "All that's between us and final 3 is two whole tribes". It could actually happen.

The odds of all 3 ending up on the same team after the switch are really about 50/50. Elsewhere people are saying it's rigged but it's entirely possible. No matter how they pick, at least 2 of the 3 are going to be on the same tribe. So it's just a matter of the third picking the same color as the other two, nearly 50/50 (actually with 14 people, 2 having picked orange, it was 5/12, slightly better than 40/60, close enough).
no, it was a 25% chance. 8 possible combos; only 2 of which have all 3 on same team.
It is actually 19%. Once the first brain tribe member picks a color, there is a 46% chance that the next brain tribe member picks the same color (6 out of 13 remaining rocks). Assuming that person picks the same color, there is then a 42% chance that the 3rd brain tribe member picks the same color (5 our of 12 remaining rocks). 46% times 42% gives you a 19% chance that both happen.

 
LJ still my clear favorite. Dude has made a lot of good reads. I'm sure he's getting the benefit of edits, but kudos to him so far.

Where are the gifs of Lindsey's ### during the pole challenge and Morgan cleaning out her cleavage??
Or Alexis's ### when she walked up to the shelter?
This is the gif I want to see! LOTS of excellent gif potential from last night for sure.
Could only find a still.

But then there's this.
Gif

 
Tony and wu should make deals when they go to the camp

ETA: scratch that Tonys plan was much better!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
LJ still my clear favorite. Dude has made a lot of good reads. I'm sure he's getting the benefit of edits, but kudos to him so far.

Where are the gifs of Lindsey's ### during the pole challenge and Morgan cleaning out her cleavage??
Or Alexis's ### when she walked up to the shelter?
This is the gif I want to see! LOTS of excellent gif potential from last night for sure.
Could only find a still.

But then there's this.
Gif
That is one sweet turd cutter

 
Not a fan of Tony, but he put the fox among the hens with that play. Probably should have kept his mouth shut about it back at camp, but it was a good idea.

Also, everyone talks way too damn much at tribal.

'Yeah, Jeff -- on the surface that looks like it might be good, but this is Survivor and you can't ever take anything for granted. No one's ever really safe in this game.'

Something vague like that should be the answer to almost every question.

 
Not a fan of Tony, but he put the fox among the hens with that play. Probably should have kept his mouth shut about it back at camp, but it was a good idea.

Also, everyone talks way too damn much at tribal.

'Yeah, Jeff -- on the surface that looks like it might be good, but this is Survivor and you can't ever take anything for granted. No one's ever really safe in this game.'

Something vague like that should be the answer to almost every question.
Might have been a good idea except it didn't work.
 
I wonder if the producers told the players before the reward challenge not to toss their mini idol into the air before tackling their opponent. That was the easy strategy in past seasons.

 
I wonder if the producers told the players before the reward challenge not to toss their mini idol into the air before tackling their opponent. That was the easy strategy in past seasons.
I thought Spencer kind of did it in the first round, but you're right it wasn't as prominent in past seasons.

 
Gonna miss the eye candy.

Another merge already? Jeebus. 2 episodes. There's 11 people left. Seems like a big group.

 
Sarah like that little hyper puppy dog. You scratch her and she's your's.

For no reason she basically admitted she had an alliance with Tony.

Tony is playing well but he cannot go a while without affirmation. Has to tell people,"Look what I did."

Spencer my fav to win right now. Strategic and flying under the radar. At least 4-5 people on the chopping block ahead of him. He's getting show attention and the brains look out of the line of fire.

 
I wonder if the producers told the players before the reward challenge not to toss their mini idol into the air before tackling their opponent. That was the easy strategy in past seasons.
I thought Spencer kind of did it in the first round, but you're right it wasn't as prominent in past seasons.
I thought the same thing. I told my wife when they showed the challenge that was the strategy in the past. He did it the first round, then nobody did it.

 
Tony would be a much better player if he could just stop bragging about how clever he was.
:goodposting: Plus the.. Hey, BTW I lied to you all before, I am a cop.. and thinking people will see him as being honest now was just stupid..
agree. He's too proud of his accomplishments to keep it to himself. I don't know why he even told them he was a cop. What purpose does that serve? He might has well said "oh and I have an idol too, so suck on that biaches"

 

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