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Survivor Picks Week 1 (1 Viewer)

Futz

Footballguy
The early weeks of survivor are some of the most treacherous waters to navigate during the season. A lot of uncertainty and changeover in elite teams to start a season. The key IMO is to play it pretty safe early on to see how it all shakes out. Only take risks when you get a feel for the league. Trying to be brilliant at this stage gets you killed off.

Serious Considerations:

Kansas City v Buffalo -- I like KC and the direction they are going in and it's no joke at Arrowhead. Buffalo is not a pushover and can score which makes this pick a little bit shaky but I still feel it's one of the safer picks on the board.



Arizona v Carolina -- A rookie QB going on the road for his first start has you licking your chops I'm sure. But, I'm reminded of a week one pick I made a few years back when I picked what I thought was going to be a decent team (Detroit) to beat a down Atlanta team starting a rookie QB in Matt Ryan. If I was going to pick Detroit that year, this was the game. ATL trashed them with that rookie QB. Beware is all I say. I'm not a Newton fan but....

San Diego v Minnesota -- Every year, S.D. keeps on disappointing us. They seem to have the parts to be dominant but for whatever reason they fail. However, opening at home v a NFC team that looks like a bottom dweller is a good recipe for success.

Risky Business

St. Louis v Philadelphia -- The Eagles are everyone's paper champs but going on the road vs and up and coming and very motivated team in the Rams to show they belong is not a week one choice for me. AVOID AVOID AVOID.

Miami v New England -- The Pats have the early season name value that people will gravitate to but divisional roadies are not the answer. Stay away.

Washington v NYG -- I see the Giants gathering some picks but see above please.

Cleveland v Cincy -- Again, it's divisional, it's a rookie unknown QB, and it's a rivalry game. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

WEEK 1: San Diego. The fewest question marks and a team I don't mind burning up since they are a bit bi-polar.

 
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I am looking at CLE, ARZ or KC myself. These are the only game I am considering for week one. They all invlove some risk as they are all middle of the pack teams. But I have very low expectation for Cincy, division or not, Carolina, I am leery of, I think they suck less than last year. KC should be able to take BUF. So for me it is really between KC and CLE, maybe the divisional rivalry is enuf to push me to KC, but I think Cincy really stinks it up this year.

If you go against Cincy and BUF on the road you should get pretty far.

 
If I had to bet my survivor season on the KC vs. BUFF game I'd be taking Buffalo. If any of you have been watching the team since Weis left you know the offense is total garbage. Add in todays news of Moeaki being lost for the year with an ACL cause their HC is a moron that plays the starters most of the 4th preseason game, and I want nothing to do with that team.

 
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If I had to bet my survivor season on the KC vs. BUFF game I'd be taking Buffalo. If any of you have been watching the team since Weis left you know the offense is total garbage. Add in todays news of Moeaki being lost for the year with an ACL cause their HC is a moron that plays the starters most of the 4th preseason game, and I want nothing to do with that team.
Risky business taking a 500 team :rolleyes: on the road
 
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I'm seeing a lot of speculation on the marginal games, who are the sure fire locks? Week one is not so easy this year.

 
Went with the Giants over Washington for the shark pool survivoir.
A divisional roadie to begin the year. Good luck with that.
Even though Eli has looked bad, I dont see WASH winning this unless Hightower is still in his 7yds/rush preseason videogame mode
If I had to put money on the game, I'd lean NYG but I could easily see Eli having one of his turnover fests and losing this game. There just has to be a more secure option in week 1 of a survivor pool. You don't get style points for taking big risks this early. Just saying...
 
I've been leaning towards Pats at Phins. I know, I know..........but the Pats should go down there and stomp a mudhole.

 
Never pick SD early in the season. Never. Even as a homer, I just would not pick them early.

I like Arizona vs the rookie qb and New England vs Miami.

 
Chargers OR Chiefs. Lean toward Chiefs as to get SD in week #3 against the Chiefs. I know this will end up being a jinx, but broke down the whole season. Started off using the projected lines from Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas for the whole season. Also weighted home games, projected win total and a few other minor things. Granted, things can change but was able to take all home teams who should be favored by close to a TD or more AT HOME. Taking road favorites is always a scary thing in the NFL, especially since home dogs cover more then away dogs. With Carolina picked to be one of the worst teams in the NFL based on win total projections, fading them on the road week # at Bears, week #12 at Colts, week 13# at Bucs, week #15 at Texans and if needed week #17 at Saints. Still going to do a final rundown in next day or so and will report back.

 
pick the NY Jets in NY on 9/11 against an overrated Cowboys team. Safest pick by far imo

signed,

Life long Cowboys fan

 
Chargers OR Chiefs. Lean toward Chiefs as to get SD in week #3 against the Chiefs. I know this will end up being a jinx, but broke down the whole season. Started off using the projected lines from Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas for the whole season. Also weighted home games, projected win total and a few other minor things. Granted, things can change but was able to take all home teams who should be favored by close to a TD or more AT HOME. Taking road favorites is always a scary thing in the NFL, especially since home dogs cover more then away dogs. With Carolina picked to be one of the worst teams in the NFL based on win total projections, fading them on the road week # at Bears, week #12 at Colts, week 13# at Bucs, week #15 at Texans and if needed week #17 at Saints. Still going to do a final rundown in next day or so and will report back.
still like KC with Cassel being questionable? i would think it could be dangerous situation there, but love the idea of fading Carolina, and i think Cincy may be eligible for that at some point too
 
Chargers OR Chiefs. Lean toward Chiefs as to get SD in week #3 against the Chiefs. I know this will end up being a jinx, but broke down the whole season. Started off using the projected lines from Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas for the whole season. Also weighted home games, projected win total and a few other minor things. Granted, things can change but was able to take all home teams who should be favored by close to a TD or more AT HOME. Taking road favorites is always a scary thing in the NFL, especially since home dogs cover more then away dogs. With Carolina picked to be one of the worst teams in the NFL based on win total projections, fading them on the road week # at Bears, week #12 at Colts, week 13# at Bucs, week #15 at Texans and if needed week #17 at Saints. Still going to do a final rundown in next day or so and will report back.
still like KC with Cassel being questionable? i would think it could be dangerous situation there, but love the idea of fading Carolina, and i think Cincy may be eligible for that at some point too
just saw the rib info. finalizing everything day before game #1. trying to make it past first few weeks before having to use too many stud teams. picking on carolina alot, but their road schedule justifies skipping certain teams to use them at home vs panthers.
 
I like SD or Houston this week. KC eeked out a win at home last year vs. Buffalo and it was ugly to watch. They are a team I really don't want to rely on this year, although I will have to with that division.

New England seems like a lock too but you are going against the home team in a divisional game. There is surely going to be a better day to use the Pats at home.

 
That Rams o-line has been getting pushed into the backfield all preseason. I took Philly heavily weighted in my pools. Thinking the Rams can win sounds like a case of overthinking it. IMHO.

 
That Rams o-line has been getting pushed into the backfield all preseason. I took Philly heavily weighted in my pools. Thinking the Rams can win sounds like a case of overthinking it. IMHO.
Someone mentioned it with New England but there will be some gimmee type of home games for Philly and NE so why burn them up going on the road vs. two teams who are knocking on the playoff door? It's just not worth the risk even it is marginal.
 
The only two games I'm even considering at CLE over CIN and NE over MIA. I'm avoiding SD for the first eight weeks given their early season struggles seemingly every year and I don't think Minny is as bad as a lot of others do. I'm not sold that adding Kolb in ARI makes this a must pick team over anyone. I don't like KC enough if Cassel is out and BUF was a very competitive team last year even if their record didn't show it.

CIN is that bad right now though, which makes an early CLE pick an attractive option. The only reason I'm considering this game is because I don't want to burn NE this early, but I'm also a firm believer that the teams with greater continuity this year, like NE, will have more success early. Plus, I think there will be an upset or two in the big spreads thanks to the abbreviated training camps.

 
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I'm seeing a lot of speculation on the marginal games, who are the sure fire locks? Week one is not so easy this year.
use the sure fire locks early and you will pay later. I recommend using a one week wonder with a great matchup and get the POS team out of the way, save the strong teams for later. MHO
 
SD historically sucks opening the season. They have resolved some of their issues from last year (sp teams, lack of talent on D and lack of talent at WR). This could be the year they finally come through.

AZ is the only other game that looks like a good matchup (not including teams on the road).

 
I'm seeing a lot of speculation on the marginal games, who are the sure fire locks? Week one is not so easy this year.
use the sure fire locks early and you will pay later. I recommend using a one week wonder with a great matchup and get the POS team out of the way, save the strong teams for later. MHO
Differing philosophies then because I subscribe to the idea that great teams are no good to you later on if you don't make it that far.
 
Arizona in week 1 against a really awful Carolina team.

I'm thinking for the long haul here, and how many chances will I get to pick a team like Arizona against ANYONE?

 
Arizona in week 1 against a really awful Carolina team. I'm thinking for the long haul here, and how many chances will I get to pick a team like Arizona against ANYONE?
They play the Seahawks and 9ers twice each. I think you'll find a time. :) Going with the Chargers this week.
 
That Rams o-line has been getting pushed into the backfield all preseason. I took Philly heavily weighted in my pools. Thinking the Rams can win sounds like a case of overthinking it. IMHO.
Someone mentioned it with New England but there will be some gimmee type of home games for Philly and NE so why burn them up going on the road vs. two teams who are knocking on the playoff door? It's just not worth the risk even it is marginal.
I didn't see any definite "lock" type games for Philly until week 13 & 14. That's a long time to hold out using them.
 
ARIZ with confidence

Newton gonna run out of plays he knows by second quarter and they're gonna have to start running em again

 
'tangfoot said:
Arizona in week 1 against a really awful Carolina team. I'm thinking for the long haul here, and how many chances will I get to pick a team like Arizona against ANYONE?
I am hesitent to play ARI this week because i think Ron Rivera will come out guns blazing. I remember when the guy was Philly he was known as a good fire-up coach, and he could be really pushing this 1st game as a statement. I think picking against a coach that is more on the hotseat or been there for awhile (like Del Rio in Jax or Lewis in Cincy) is a bit safer. just my 2 cents
 
'tangfoot said:
Arizona in week 1 against a really awful Carolina team. I'm thinking for the long haul here, and how many chances will I get to pick a team like Arizona against ANYONE?
I am hesitent to play ARI this week because i think Ron Rivera will come out guns blazing. I remember when the guy was Philly he was known as a good fire-up coach, and he could be really pushing this 1st game as a statement. I think picking against a coach that is more on the hotseat or been there for awhile (like Del Rio in Jax or Lewis in Cincy) is a bit safer. just my 2 cents
The coach isnt the one throwing the ball...cam is probably going to throw at least 3 int`s...this game will be a blow out in Zona`s favor
 
'tangfoot said:
Arizona in week 1 against a really awful Carolina team. I'm thinking for the long haul here, and how many chances will I get to pick a team like Arizona against ANYONE?
I am hesitent to play ARI this week because i think Ron Rivera will come out guns blazing. I remember when the guy was Philly he was known as a good fire-up coach, and he could be really pushing this 1st game as a statement. I think picking against a coach that is more on the hotseat or been there for awhile (like Del Rio in Jax or Lewis in Cincy) is a bit safer. just my 2 cents
The coach isnt the one throwing the ball...cam is probably going to throw at least 3 int`s...this game will be a blow out in Zona`s favor
i am not as familiar with both teams, so hopefully it works that way. Arizona should win, but i remember watching Clauson last year and thinking he was possibly the worst NFL QB i can remember watching in a game. And it isn't like Delhomme was much better, but when D. Will and that running game get going Carolina can be competitive. I guess i just have more faith in Cleveland destroying Cincy, but good luck either way
 
I went with Green Bay the minute I heard that no Superbowl winning team had lost opening weekend since the Denver team that lost Elway that year

On to another week

 

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