Survivor Pool discussion & strategy for week 8 (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

Congrats if you're still breathing. Let's have a look at week 8:

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins at N.Y. Giants

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Washington Redskins vs. Buffalo Bills (in Toronto)

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Of the teams still available to me, my choices are among the following:

- Baltimore

- N.Y. Giants

- San Francisco

- Carolina

I'd really like to save Baltimore, and I don't see any more great spots for the Giants or Niners (except maybe for week 13 -- Rams at 49ers), so I'll probably roll the dice with one of them. How do you guys see the matchups shaking out this week?

 

[Instinctive]

I like San Francisco here - but Baltimore and Houston look good too - even if you avoid divisional games.

I would like to pick NY, and they may be the safest pick this week, but that team can be so bipolar...

 

[Raider Nation]

I would like to pick NY, and they may be the safest pick this week, but that team can be so bipolar...

Certainly. They bounced 64% of the people in my pool when they lost to Seattle.But Miami is bad. If you can hold your nose and get away with the Giants this one time, it'll be nice to save some better teams.

 

[Norogernorerunnorent]

my virgin post...great site, great forum, great thread...

let me prefice with i'm a huge Giant homer. lot of Giant homers still in their pools as they knew to avoid Seattle game. however i really think that was their one bad home stinker vs bad team a year game. Tuck is a go hopefully groin holds up. spread opened at 11 i think i saw.

i remembered couple of bad losses after byes under Coughlin, though looked back and they are 4-3, winning their past three.

so only real negative is winless team this late is always little scary.

Balt only other option i like, and way i have it mapped out going with Balt Week 11, home vs Cincy.

side note - if somehow Balt loses tonight, they are 100% my play next week. strong believer in these pools of a decent team playing at home following bad loss on road vs inferior team.

side note 2 - at this time, SF is my 2nd pick (behind Pitt at home) in week 13 , so good option to have there in case Pitt falls apart or Big Ben is hurt...

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

Another to consider is TEN at home vs. IND. While Indy likely wants to recover from a stinker, so does TEN. Personally not a fan of divisional games, but one to consider. Right now with what I have left, likely deciding between NYG and SF, with NYG more likely the play, as SF has some future value. As a Giants fan, just can't see them spitting the bit twice at home. Plus, reinforcements are coming (Tuck most importantly), so I think they are a good play.

 

[massraider]

Texans or Titans. I like both spots. Took Denver last week, and I hesitate to take another road team again.

Tennessee is still a solid team, I think they get right at home vs. the Colts.

Texans still have no heart (they should move to the NFC East), but with that running game, won't need any heart vs. Blaine Gabbert at home.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

strong believer in these pools of a decent team playing at home following bad loss on road vs inferior team.

Interesting angle you have there, I will start following this.

 

[Norogernorerunnorent]

i like TN also, i just didn't mention because i used them already. even if avail would go Giants over TN though.

i told myself to stay away from NFC East teams this year, though no-division game, and as nerve wracking as Giants can be they are the right play. Giant players know damn well what lies ahead with their schedule, they MUST win vs Dolphins before hitting the brutal 2nd half schedule. i can't see them looking past it.

 

[Norogernorerunnorent]

dude that took Denver, that's a go for the heart type of pick. all depends on how many guys still left. i took Denver early in Week 2, but with only 4 other guys left out of 80, no way i chance that now. ballsy play though congrats!

 

[massraider]

i like TN also, i just didn't mention because i used them already. even if avail would go Giants over TN though.i told myself to stay away from NFC East teams this year, though no-division game, and as nerve wracking as Giants can be they are the right play. Giant players know damn well what lies ahead with their schedule, they MUST win vs Dolphins before hitting the brutal 2nd half schedule. i can't see them looking past it.

This was my thinking when picking the Eagles vs. the 49ers. But I think you are right, I think if there was ever a time to play the Giants, this is the week.

 

[Buc in Exile]

i like TN also, i just didn't mention because i used them already. even if avail would go Giants over TN though.

i told myself to stay away from NFC East teams this year, though no-division game, and as nerve wracking as Giants can be they are the right play. Giant players know damn well what lies ahead with their schedule, they MUST win vs Dolphins before hitting the brutal 2nd half schedule. i can't see them looking past it.

This was my thinking when picking the Eagles vs. the 49ers. But I think you are right, I think if there was ever a time to play the Giants, this is the week.

I think I said this exact thing before I picked the Giants to beat the Seahawks... I like Tennessee this week as well.

Niners are a good option too, but they look like a great Week 13 play when there aren't many other good options.

If you have Houston left, I'd think they should rout Jax considering they're on the road, coming off a short week, and just got a huge win.

With all the Redskins injuries, could Buffalo be a viable pick this week?

 

[Time Kibitzer]

One thing to think about for San Francisco and the Giants this week, they are both coming off of a bye week. Normally that'd be a good thing, but with the new bargaining agreement made by the NFLPA, teams aren't allowed to make their players practice very much during this time; and certainly a lot less than they were able to before the new bargaining agreement that came into place this offseason.

Related to that, teams coming off of bye weeks so far this season are 3-9 (and one of those winning teams was the Broncos who looked terrible for the first 55 minutes of the game). So so far, it looks like bye weeks certainly don't give teams the same advantage they did in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Giants or 49ers lose this week.

 

[Raider Nation]

One thing to think about for San Francisco and the Giants this week, they are both coming off of a bye week. Normally that'd be a good thing, but with the new bargaining agreement made by the NFLPA, teams aren't allowed to make their players practice very much during this time; and certainly a lot less than they were able to before the new bargaining agreement that came into place this offseason.

Related to that, teams coming off of bye weeks so far this season are 3-9 (and one of those winning teams was the Broncos who looked terrible for the first 55 minutes of the game). So so far, it looks like bye weeks certainly don't give teams the same advantage they did in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Giants or 49ers lose this week.

I'm 99% sure I'm taking the Giants. I like them coming off the bye, not because of any practice issues, but because they had time to get some of their guys healthy. The Dolphins are coming off a devastating loss to the Broncos. I can't see them traveling to New Jersey with a rah-rah attitude. Morale has to be pretty low in Miami's locker room. I want to save San Francisco for week 13 (home to the Rams) in what could maybe be a division-clinching game.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

One thing to think about for San Francisco and the Giants this week, they are both coming off of a bye week. Normally that'd be a good thing, but with the new bargaining agreement made by the NFLPA, teams aren't allowed to make their players practice very much during this time; and certainly a lot less than they were able to before the new bargaining agreement that came into place this offseason.

Related to that, teams coming off of bye weeks so far this season are 3-9 (and one of those winning teams was the Broncos who looked terrible for the first 55 minutes of the game). So so far, it looks like bye weeks certainly don't give teams the same advantage they did in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Giants or 49ers lose this week.

I'm 99% sure I'm taking the Giants. I like them coming off the bye, not because of any practice issues, but because they had time to get some of their guys healthy. The Dolphins are coming off a devastating loss to the Broncos. I can't see them traveling to New Jersey with a rah-rah attitude. Morale has to be pretty low in Miami's locker room. I want to save San Francisco for week 13 (home to the Rams) in what could maybe be a division-clinching game.

I very well may be taking the Giants myself (I usually don't make my picks til late in the week when you have the most information about all the upcoming games), I'm just saying there's reasons to be apprehensive about teams coming off of bye weeks unlike in years past.

 

[Raider Nation]

With all the Redskins injuries, could Buffalo be a viable pick this week?

Was just looking at this. Interesting spot to use the Bills. Fully healthy, off a bye, fired up home crowd. F-Jax should run wild.EDIT: Here is the problem using Buffalo now. We may need them in week 16, when they are hosting the Broncos. I don't see many other good (available) options that week, except maybe Cincy at home against the Cardinals. I would hate to pin my hopes on the Bengals with only two weeks left.

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

i like TN also, i just didn't mention because i used them already. even if avail would go Giants over TN though.

i told myself to stay away from NFC East teams this year, though no-division game, and as nerve wracking as Giants can be they are the right play. Giant players know damn well what lies ahead with their schedule, they MUST win vs Dolphins before hitting the brutal 2nd half schedule. i can't see them looking past it.

This was my thinking when picking the Eagles vs. the 49ers. But I think you are right, I think if there was ever a time to play the Giants, this is the week.

I think I said this exact thing before I picked the Giants to beat the Seahawks... I like Tennessee this week as well.

Niners are a good option too, but they look like a great Week 13 play when there aren't many other good options.

If you have Houston left, I'd think they should rout Jax considering they're on the road, coming off a short week, and just got a huge win.

With all the Redskins injuries, could Buffalo be a viable pick this week?

Have Cleveland at home next week, as well as @ IND week 16, so should have some future value.If future value is the consideration, Giants are the clear cut pick, as their schedule is brutal from here on out. As RN has stated (think I shared similar thoughts earlier), Giants are getting guys back off the bye (Tuck, Snee on the OL, Jacobs, Amukamara (though who knows what he really has to offer)) to name a few. In addition, does one really expect Miami to pick up their jocks after last week and fight, fight, fight?

Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself

 

[Norogernorerunnorent]

Balt game last night threw me for a loop, now i really have to take them now vs Cards next week, to me that is more of a "lock" then Giants (backed up by Vegas, -14 vs -11) though on the other hand looking ahead - Giants are unusable for balance of season, and Balt has week 11 home vs Cincy (little scary) and week 14 home vs Indy.

anyway, gotta go with the Ravens as juicy as the Giants match up is, both should be played with confidence

really i see Week 9 and Week 10 as the scariest. Week 9 best play for me is Dallas at home and Week 10 Philly home vs Arizona. too much NFC East for my comfort (shudder)

i don't take road teams, and after last night nobody should.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Balt game last night threw me for a loop, now i really have to take them now vs Cards next week, to me that is more of a "lock" then Giants (backed up by Vegas, -14 vs -11) though on the other hand looking ahead - Giants are unusable for balance of season, and Balt has week 11 home vs Cincy (little scary) and week 14 home vs Indy.

anyway, gotta go with the Ravens as juicy as the Giants match up is, both should be played with confidence

really i see Week 9 and Week 10 as the scariest. Week 9 best play for me is Dallas at home and Week 10 Philly home vs Arizona. too much NFC East for my comfort (shudder)

i don't take road teams, and after last night nobody should.

I think last night is instead evidence suggesting that if you're gonna take a road team, don't take the road team on a Monday night game. Same thing happened a year or 2 ago when the Giants lost in Cleveland; I think the Giants were bigger favourites than the Ravens were last night too.

 

[The Indestructible]

I already used the Giants, so I'm leaning towards Baltimore with secondary consideration for SF. I agree with the previous poster who said that Baltimore's MNF loss makes them a virtual lock this week against Arizona. For anybody rolling with SF this week, what convinced you?

 

[Tiger Fan]

Everyone of the large spread games violate one of my big 4 rules (in order)

1. No divisional games

2. Don't take road teams

3. No prime time games

4. No cross - conference games

I think the cross - conference games are the weakest of the 4, so that leaves the Ravens, 49ers and Giants to choose from. That after bye week stat scares me, so I'm rolling with the Ravens...think they'll have something to prove after playing awful on Monday night.

 

[Buc in Exile]

Everyone of the large spread games violate one of my big 4 rules (in order)

1. No divisional games

2. Don't take road teams

3. No prime time games

4. No cross - conference games

I think the cross - conference games are the weakest of the 4, so that leaves the Ravens, 49ers and Giants to choose from. That after bye week stat scares me, so I'm rolling with the Ravens...think they'll have something to prove after playing awful on Monday night.

I've seen a list like this before. The first three points make sense to me, but what is the logic behind #4? Why are cross-conference games any different than any other non-divisional game?

 

[Raider Nation]

Everyone of the large spread games violate one of my big 4 rules (in order)

1. No divisional games

2. Don't take road teams

3. No prime time games

4. No cross - conference games

I think the cross - conference games are the weakest of the 4, so that leaves the Ravens, 49ers and Giants to choose from. That after bye week stat scares me, so I'm rolling with the Ravens...think they'll have something to prove after playing awful on Monday night.

I've seen a list like this before. The first three points make sense to me, but what is the logic behind #4? Why are cross-conference games any different than any other non-divisional game?

Unfamiliarity with the opponent would be my guess. But that works both ways. Seems like a silly thing to get hung up on.

 

[Raider Nation]

How about the "Bet against Miami the rest of the season" theory?

W8 - @ NYG

W9 - @ KC

W10 - vs. Wash

W11 - vs. Buffalo

W12 - @ DAL

W13 - vs. Oakland

W14 - vs. Philly

W15 - @ Buffalo

W16 - @ NE

W17 - vs. NYJ

Other than maybe the Redskins game, I don't see a win on that schedule.

EDIT: Obviously, you can only use Buffalo once. Might as well take them at home, W15.

 

[massraider]

How about the "Bet against Miami the rest of the season" theory?W8 - @ NYGW9 - @ KCW10 - vs. Wash W11 - vs. BuffaloW12 - @ DALW13 - vs. OaklandW14 - vs. PhillyW15 - @ BuffaloW16 - @ NEW17 - vs. NYJOther than maybe the Redskins game, I don't see a win on that schedule.EDIT: Obviously, you can only use Buffalo once. Might as well take them at home, W15.

Yeah, and when we talked about skipping the Giants during the Seattle bloodbath, this was the one other time you could use the Giants. I mean, things can change, and teams make a run, but the Dolphins, so early in the season, tough to see how they will turn it around. The Seattle game was considered a 'lock' that week, and man, Seattle is much, much better than Miami. With Tarvaris or Charlie W. back there. I think that @KC game is a sweet pick next week. KC is better than their week 1 game vs. Buffalo, which is all anyone remembers, and I cannot see the Fins going to KC, for the 2nd road game in a row, and doing anything good.

 

[wadegarrett]

NYG or SF

 

[Raider Nation]

I think that @KC game is a sweet pick next week. KC is better than their week 1 game vs. Buffalo, which is all anyone remembers, and I cannot see the Fins going to KC, for the 2nd road game in a row, and doing anything good.

I already have K.C. penciled in next week. Just gotta make sure they don't suffer any key injuries this week. It's almost too good to be true. Miami on back-to-back road games, as you pointed out, no good/healthy QBs, buzzards swarming around Sparano, Chiefs playing well, etc. Early in the season, it looked improbable that you would ever be able to use K.C. Now it gives you a chance to squirrel away one of the better teams for another week.

 

[Raider Nation]

SO pissed that the crapfest known as the Cardinals couldn't hold a 3-TD lead! 40% of my pool took Baltimore.

Gotta make the most of opportunities like that.

ON THE OTHER HAND... I suppose I should just feel fortunate that I am still alive. The Giants trailed the hideous Dolphins all day long.

 

[massraider]

SO pissed that the crapfest known as the Cardinals couldn't hold a 3-TD lead! 40% of my pool took Baltimore.

Gotta make the most of opportunities like that.

ON THE OTHER HAND... I suppose I should just feel fortunate that I am still alive. The Giants trailed the hideous Dolphins all day long.

Nice to get a win from the Giants, and never have to use them again. Said it before, NFC East can lose to anyone. Unreal.