What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

*** Survivor Pool *** strategy & discussion ... Week 2 (1 Viewer)

Raider Nation

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
Back again with another weekly survivor pool discussion to help you win some :moneybag:

I assume I'm not the only one with multiple entries in the same pool, so if you are in a similar situation feel free to point out what you are looking at with more than one choice. For those new to survivor/suicide pools, you simply have to pick a winning team. If you do that, you move on to the next week. If you pick a team which ties or loses, you are OUT. Point spreads don't matter for our purposes, but I listed them below to give an idea of which teams are big favorites. Home teams are in CAPS.

Cowboys

GIANTS -4

Colts

BEARS -9

Eagles -8

BROWNS

Bills

JETS -3

Redskins

SAINTS -8½

Patriots -6

TITANS

Jaguars

VIKINGS -3½

Dolphins

TEXANS -12½

Rams

LIONS -8

Falcons -3

CHIEFS

49ers

PACKERS -5

Panthers -3

BUCCANEERS

Seahawks -3

CARDINALS

Steelers

BRONCOS -1

Bengals

RAVENS -6

Chargers -1

RAIDERS

Houston is sure to be the overwhelming pick this week, followed by the Saints, Lions and Bears.

The Eagles are a decent favorite, but you want to avoid road teams early on if possible.

What else looks good? :popcorn:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Raider Nation said:
The Eagles are a decent favorite, but you want to avoid road teams early on if possible.
Click to expand...
Unless you want to donate your cash and play survivor for only one week, DO NOT pick the Eagles. Andy Reid is 6-7 lifetime on opening weekend as they usually start slow. Factor that in with Vick playing all of 12 snaps in the preseason, an you have a recipe for disaster. Theyll probably squeak out a win, but not cover. No reason to take a chance in week 1.BTW, anyone running FBG survivor?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Lions at home in non-division game vs Rams.

Texans and Saints look good also, but I would like to save those teams for later.

 
'JaxBill said:
Texans and Saints look good also, but I would like to save those teams for later.
Click to expand...
I don't see a game that jumps out as an easy win for the Saints in the next several weeks, may go with them in week 1. Who knows what's going on with coaching and suspensions but , even though its RG3, they are playing a rookie QB in his first start and its on the road.
 
Play it safe with the Texans IMO. Saving teams is overrated for the most part and all the other games have extra variables that I don't like. You have to use the Texans at home and it's hard to imagine an easier team on their home schedule.

It just seems like one of those obvious stories you can see coming to have Luck and/or RG3 go off in their opener.

I respect JF too much as a coach and I have no idea what the Rams will be like this year. Detroit's defense comes and goes.

 
I'm usually out by week 3, so I'm going to go with the gusto and pick Minnesota.

Gotta do it sometime and I think they're going to be mildly better than most people think and get around 6 wins this year.

Jacksonville is still terrible.

 
'Andy Dufresne said:
I'm usually out by week 3, so I'm going to go with the gusto and pick Minnesota.Gotta do it sometime and I think they're going to be mildly better than most people think and get around 6 wins this year.Jacksonville is still terrible.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Diehard Vikes fan, but there are going to be a lot of pains this year. Jacksonville at home week 1 looks like one of the very few times we can use them.
 
Another good Survivor site I follow...

http://vegaswatch.net/

Houston (vs. Miami)

The Texans are both the most popular team in Week 1 and the biggest favorite, at 65% 86% to win. While they are certainly a viable option, I think it's best to save Houston for later in the season. As a strong team in an otherwise horrific division, it seems likely that they'll be a better option later in the season when their win probability is similar, but they're a lot less popular.

Detroit (vs. St. Louis)

Nope. The Lions are only the fifth most likely team to win this week, and are obviously pretty popular, so before even getting into future value they are out.

Chicago (vs. Indianapolis)

This week's selection came down to these next two options for me. Chicago is the second biggest favorite of the week, although they have the popularity to go along with it. That combination by itself is fine, but not having the Bears as an option in the future concerns me. They're not a juggernaut or anything, but they could end up being the biggest favorite in Week 3 (vs. STL) and/or Week 12 (vs. MIN).

Philadelphia (at Cleveland)

The Eagles are a bit less likely to win than the Bears, but also slightly less popular; marginal edge to Chicago there, but not much. It's the surprising lack of future value that causes me to lean toward Philly. Obviously they're not bad, but they just don't play many crappy teams at home. Looking way ahead, they do host the Bengals in Week 15 and the Redskins in Week 16. But there are multiple other strong options in both weeks, so that doesn't seem like a huge issue.

New Orleans (vs. Washington)

The Saints are less popular than the Eagles, but that's really all they have on Philly, since New Orleans is significantly less likely to win and they have a decent amount of future value themselves.

Kind of surprising to be taking an away team in Week 1, but strange things happen when you're playing the Browns. This week's pick is Philadelphia.
Click to expand...
 
'cheese said:
Play it safe with the Texans IMO. Saving teams is overrated for the most part and all the other games have extra variables that I don't like. You have to use the Texans at home and it's hard to imagine an easier team on their home schedule.It just seems like one of those obvious stories you can see coming to have Luck and/or RG3 go off in their opener. I respect JF too much as a coach and I have no idea what the Rams will be like this year. Detroit's defense comes and goes.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:Every year people get cute in week 1 and try to save teams but it ain't any food to save someone if you're out. For the last few yearsvive taken SB champs week 1 as they've never lost that game since gong to this format but don't like it this year as its division game.
 
Just take Houston and be done with it. The link above says better to save Houston? That's nuts. "Saving" teams is Don't #1 in survivor pools. Maybe very late in the season if you're deciding between two teams and one of them has a sweet match-up the following week. No way Tannehill rolls into Houston and beats that team in week 1. Detroit and New Orleans lines both dropped to 7 at some books today. Take the easy play and worry about other weeks as they come.

 
Everybody gets the "take Houston and sleep like a baby" angle.

But some of us are gamblers. There is NO better feeling in a suicide pool than taking the next-safest option, and praying for a miracle win by (in this case) Miami, which would probably bone 60% of the pool in one shot.

That said, one of my choices will indeed be Houston. There are other weeks to get cute with the huge chalk of the week. I don't see this as being one of them. The Texans should be able to name their score. I predicted something like 38-6 in the wagering thread yesterday.

 
'Bo Skiboski said:
Just take Houston and be done with it. The link above says better to save Houston? That's nuts. "Saving" teams is Don't #1 in survivor pools. Maybe very late in the season if you're deciding between two teams and one of them has a sweet match-up the following week. No way Tannehill rolls into Houston and beats that team in week 1. Detroit and New Orleans lines both dropped to 7 at some books today. Take the easy play and worry about other weeks as they come.
Click to expand...
Yeah, save Houston for what? Their schedule isn't great after this week for quite awhile - may as well use them now.
 
'Raider Nation said:
Everybody gets the "take Houston and sleep like a baby" angle.

But some of us are gamblers. There is NO better feeling in a suicide pool than taking the next-safest option, and praying for a miracle win by (in this case) Miami, which would probably bone 60% of the pool in one shot.
Click to expand...
Along these lines, I really liked Minnesota this week until I saw the line (I expected something closer to 6 than 3).
 
'cheese said:
Play it safe with the Texans IMO. Saving teams is overrated for the most part and all the other games have extra variables that I don't like. You have to use the Texans at home and it's hard to imagine an easier team on their home schedule.It just seems like one of those obvious stories you can see coming to have Luck and/or RG3 go off in their opener. I respect JF too much as a coach and I have no idea what the Rams will be like this year. Detroit's defense comes and goes.
Click to expand...
I agree strongly with the above.I was lucky enough to win the survivor pool on this board last year. I'm no expert, but I learned from failures in years past. My strategy generally goes:- Strongly prefer home teams. If a strong team is going to get beat by a weaker team, chances are it will be when the stronger team is on the road.- Never, ever "save" teams. Your margin of error in a survivor pool is very slim. Often times folks get bounced trying to be cute. I've never seen a survivor winner say something like "good thing I saved all those good teams". Remember that which teams are "good" will vary over the course of the season.- Obviously start by looking at the spreads to narrow your choices. - If you can't find a team you believe in, find an opponent you don't believe in and pick the other team. (Assuming the team you dislike is on the road.)- Expect things to get hairy about eight weeks deep. From that point you'll find yourself saying "I don't like any of the teams left I can pick."I love Detroit and Houston both this week. If there is any team that scares that daylights out of me, its Philadelphia on the road against the Browns.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't understand how you could've picked either team in a survivor pool for week 1. You know the least in week 1 and have to go with the surest thing. Trying to pick a matchup like this in week 1 to "save" good teams is the best way to ensure an early exit.

 
'SammyJankis said:
I don't understand how you could've picked either team in a survivor pool for week 1. You know the least in week 1 and have to go with the surest thing. Trying to pick a matchup like this in week 1 to "save" good teams is the best way to ensure an early exit.
Click to expand...
There are nearly 500 people in my pool. Seeing 11 of them on the Giants isn't a surprise.There are women in the pool, also. They basically pick the prettiest uniforms. And others were probably sold on the "World Champs" angle.
 
I'll probably get knocked out the first week but I'm going with Buffalo. The Jets offense looks terrible and their defense looks mediocre. Buffalo is completely healthy on offense, beefed up on defense, and it's not like they're traveling to the west coast.

I know it violates the "no divisional", "no road", and "no sure thing" rules but IMO it's a gamble worth taking. Looking back my problem has been winding up with a bunch of mediocre teams by week #8. I think the key to survivor is gambling on making one or two against the grain picks that leave better options down the line. If it were as easy as picking sure things no one would ever get knocked out in survivor pools.

 
'Statcruncher said:
I'll probably get knocked out the first week but I'm going with Buffalo. The Jets offense looks terrible and their defense looks mediocre. Buffalo is completely healthy on offense, beefed up on defense, and it's not like they're traveling to the west coast.I know it violates the "no divisional", "no road", and "no sure thing" rules but IMO it's a gamble worth taking. Looking back my problem has been winding up with a bunch of mediocre teams by week #8. I think the key to survivor is gambling on making one or two against the grain picks that leave better options down the line. If it were as easy as picking sure things no one would ever get knocked out in survivor pools.
Click to expand...
I like the bills this week too, but that is a big risk.
 
'Buc in Exile said:
'Raider Nation said:
Picks have to be in tomorrow morning. Is Foster being iffy scaring any of you off of Houston, or no big deal?
Click to expand...
As long as Tate's healthy, no worries. I can't see the Dolphins scoring more than 13 on that defense.
Click to expand...
I'm all in on the Texans. With *several* entries. I won't do this every week, but I cannot see a way Miami wins here.
 
I'm rolling with Detroit in all Eliminator formats this week.

No interest in saving them for down the line when the Madden curse takes full effect.

They've also got a weak secondary that teams more potent than the Rams will be more than capable to exploit.

 
Leaning toward Houston (vs. Miami). My other top choices are Detroit (vs. St. Louis) and Philly (at Cleveland).

I don't trust Philly on the road, and I don't trust Detroit at all. I think St. Louis has a better chance of being frisky than Miami.

Thoughts?

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Yogibear
Projected Week 18 Scores involving games with playoff implications
Replies
10
Views
849
BobbyLayne
BobbyLayne
FantasyMC
2024 Survivor Picks Discussion
Replies
14
Views
1K
Church of Iggy Pop
Church of Iggy Pop
Ministry of Pain
**Saints at Giants** (+5, 41) 1:00
Replies
24
Views
411
Pip's Invitation
Pip's Invitation

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top