Sustained success in a keeper/dynasty format (1 Viewer)

[DropKick]

What do Peyton Manning, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Stephen Jackson, Kevin Jones, Edgerrin James, Torry Holt and Larry Fitzgerald have in common? Here’s a hint: Soon you will be able to add Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson to that list. No idea? They are NOT on my fantasy football team.

Not that I wouldn’t take any of those guys. I just never get the chance to draft them. Aside from one injury plagued season in the past dozen years, I’ve been very successful and typically make a run at least into the second round of our play-offs. This translates to somewhere between pick 9 and 12 in the rookie/free agent draft,

Frankly, it’s getting on my nerves. You almost want a “Celtics” type season to get a high pick and that one RB “stud” to rebuild upon. A couple years ago I was on the cusp of that type of season and with one more loss would have seriously considered tanking. As luck would have it, I won 4 of 5 to squeak into the playoffs; got hot at the right time; and won a championship. OK, I’ll take it... but it meant another twelve pick.

I’ll admit I’m lucky. Head to head format and a generous play-off format help (6 of 12 teams qualify). But I can’t help but wonder why I’ve been able to win consistently while some teams, with almost perennial high picks, come up short.

Here is what I believe are contributing factors. Feel free to comment or add your own strategy for remaining competitive without a high draft pick.

Draft the Best Player Available. Seems obvious but I’ve seen some real “flyer” RB picks in the middle of the first round only to have some blue chip receivers fall to the bottom of the round. My goal is to find one “keeper” each year in both the draft and free agency.

Make every pick count. I see guys draft their grandmother late in the draft. Every roster spot is valuable. Treat them that way.

Work the waiver wire. Again, this sounds easy but to act quickly and get a guy a week before anyone knows who he is your assignment. Be careful though, just because Frisman Jackson opened the ’05 season with 8 catches for 128 yards doesn’t make him the next Jerry Rice.

Be patient. This may sound inconsistent with working the waiver wire actively but I see guys draft promising players and then promptly release them when they don’t produce in week one. If there were sound reasons for drafting the guy, give the season a chance to develop.

Find a schmuck to trade with. OK, that’s tongue in cheek. There are very few trades in my league. It has not been an avenue to success. I find, due to the track record, everyone thinks you have inside information and is reluctant to deal.

Don’t be afraid to “reach” for a player. One guy in my league is far too “value” conscious. He absolutely won’t take a guy earlier than he is projected. I understand his reasoning but he consistently misses out on the guys he really wants.

Take aim and fire away.

 

[wannabee]

thanks for sharing

I will say that I think most people undervalue the true studs in Keeper and dynasty leagues. From a starting lineup and roster viewpoint, having a top stud that plays every week and puts up top numbers is something that goes unnoticed here in the Shark Pool and in most leagues. For example, if LT puts up the same numbers as RB10 and RB12, which he did in a couple of my leagues, many think that is what he is worth. That is wrong, flat wrong. The player you can start along side of LT will get you enough points to make LT worth much, much more.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Attempt trading multiple good players and your bench players to the owners of a weak teams for their best players. Most teams do have that 1 guy everyone would want.

 

[lions327]

Great stuff.

One thing you have to do in a dynasty is to be a forward thinker. By doing this, you will always have an idea of what your team may look like a year down the road, and even longer. If you can be prepared for upcoming weaknesses, such as players getting old and declining and/or possibly being benched, you can be prepared to replace them BEFORE they go down. You can still win now, and at the same time win later.

Another thing that I think is largely overlooked in dynasties is small deals. Every trade doesn't have to be a blockbuster. There are players you have that you don't really want. There are times you can see a roster problem, like having to cut players that are good enough to be on someone else's roster. Why not try to make a small deal? Even players at the end of your roster might be good enough to get a low pick, or maybe swapping picks, with you moving up a round. Small deals may only add a little bit, but its better than having to cut them and get nothing, not to mention you make enough small deals and all of a sudden, you can improve your draft position. I personally think this is one of the most overlooked things in fantasy football.

 

[Family Matters]

Good post DropKick. You made some great points. You seem well focused on the fundamentals and that will keep you winning.

It's worth repeating that one man's trash is another man's treasure. Tlak to owners about trades. You never know when you'll strike gold.

 

[joey]

My main keeper league is a 12 team, Keep 3 league. With only 3 players kept by each team,

I totally agree with your above strategy of taking the best available player at each pick.

There is still so much talent out there in the draft that it doesn't make too much sense to

start making reaches for young players with potential when you can take a proven player to

help you WIN NOW. I've been in this keeper league for 5 years and have only missed the

playoffs once by playing for now every single year. Granted, some might think I got lucky

by playing the Priest/LJ handcuff in rounds 4 and 5 in my draft a couple of years ago (Priest

wasn't kept and most said I took LJ too early as a handcuff) and that has obviously worked

out great for me.

Anyway, I think it really depends on how many guys you keep but with Keep 3, it's always

WIN NOW and never a rebuilding year that might happen in a dynasty league (he says with

zero experience in a dynasty league )

 

[kurtrudder]

trading seems to be your best option to get better picks.

Lions327 is right, moving players you might not need to the right owner is a great way to build up a few draft picks here and there. For example last season, I was stacked at WR so i was able to trade Mike Furrey to the owner of Fitz when he went down. Furrey was never going to be in my future or present seasons plans so I was able to exchange 5th & 8th round picks with him as well as get Buckhalter (Westy handcuff) All of those small deals add up as well....and it might even give the other owners in your league more confidence to increase their trading activity which seems to be an issue in your league.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Exploit the league scoring & starting requirements. In our 14 team, 3 keeper, we start 1Qb, 1Rb, 3 WR & 1 flex. TEs are considered WRs in our league. traditional scoring, with QBs scoring 4/td, 1/25 yds. Under these circumstances, WRs are a commodity. Yet every year there are 5-6 guys who keep a Bulger or Hasselback as their QB. These guys invariably end up starting a Crumpler or Shockey as their WR3. In the meantime, I keep 2 strong WRs, draft another in early rounds, along with a servicable RB2 and draft a late round QB. Granted, I've had Priest and/or LJ on my team every year since inception.

 

[mightyeskimo]

What do Peyton Manning, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Stephen Jackson, Kevin Jones, Edgerrin James, Torry Holt and Larry Fitzgerald have in common? Here’s a hint: Soon you will be able to add Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson to that list. No idea? They are NOT on my fantasy football team.

Take aim and fire away.

Steven Jackson.

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

Here is what I believe are contributing factors. Feel free to comment or add your own strategy for remaining competitive without a high draft pick.

Get Lucky - Draft the Best Player Available. Seems obvious but I’ve seen some real “flyer” RB picks in the middle of the first round only to have some blue chip receivers fall to the bottom of the round. My goal is to find one “keeper” each year in both the draft and free agency.

Get Lucky - Make every pick count. I see guys draft their grandmother late in the draft. Every roster spot is valuable. Treat them that way.

Get Lucky - Work the waiver wire. Again, this sounds easy but to act quickly and get a guy a week before anyone knows who he is your assignment. Be careful though, just because Frisman Jackson opened the ’05 season with 8 catches for 128 yards doesn’t make him the next Jerry Rice.

Get Lucky - Be patient. This may sound inconsistent with working the waiver wire actively but I see guys draft promising players and then promptly release them when they don’t produce in week one. If there were sound reasons for drafting the guy, give the season a chance to develop.

Get Lucky - Find a schmuck to trade with. OK, that’s tongue in cheek. There are very few trades in my league. It has not been an avenue to success. I find, due to the track record, everyone thinks you have inside information and is reluctant to deal.

Get Lucky - Don’t be afraid to “reach” for a player. One guy in my league is far too “value” conscious. He absolutely won’t take a guy earlier than he is projected. I understand his reasoning but he consistently misses out on the guys he really wants.

Corrected Above.You definitely make valid points, and I know the luck vs. skill argument has been played out here time and time again. And I definitely believe that skill can put you in a position to win.

But despite all the preparation in the world, luck plays a HUGE factor in fantasy football.

You say draft the best player available. But even the consensus best rookie each year may be a colossal bust. You say the same owners seem to have the top picks each year. There's a reason for that: even the best rookie picks are a crapshoot. Just ask the owners of William Green, Charles Rogers, etc. Even the consensus #1 BPA each year is no sure thing, and that can lead to the same teams having the top picks in a dynasty league year after year.

You definitely make great points - every one of them is valid, and a good start to building a contending dynasty team long-term. But the more I play this game, and the more great information that's out there for the "average joe", the more I feel like luck plays a big part in who is successful year after year.

That one key injury (Priest Holmes a couple years ago opening the door for LJ to become a full-timer), that one 6th-round rookie draft pick that finds success out of nowhere (Marques Colston)...blowing a #1 overall rookie pick on William Green...these are the luck-of-the-draw events that can go a long way toward making/breaking a dynasty team for years.

The bottom line here, I guess is: congratulations, DropKick - you're one lucky S.O.B.

 

[Z-Dog]

Another thing that I think is largely overlooked in dynasties is small deals. Every trade doesn't have to be a blockbuster. There are players you have that you don't really want. There are times you can see a roster problem, like having to cut players that are good enough to be on someone else's roster. Why not try to make a small deal? Even players at the end of your roster might be good enough to get a low pick, or maybe swapping picks, with you moving up a round. Small deals may only add a little bit, but its better than having to cut them and get nothing, not to mention you make enough small deals and all of a sudden, you can improve your draft position. I personally think this is one of the most overlooked things in fantasy football.

I second small deals! In dynasty you can always tweak the barrel of risks that is your roster to make it a little bit better. It also helps create a good working relationship with other owners, and gives you a sense of how they value the ends of their rosters better.

 

[Bob Henry]

Something simple to prolong winning:

Don't fall in love with any player.

Don't be afraid to trade a player at the time when their value is highest (coming off a career year).

Don't be afraid to gamble on a proven player coming back from injury/etc when their value is lowest (just don't be too greedy/silly depending on the injury and compensation required).

Hit the waivers hard either before the season (if you league has such a transaction period) or following the first week. Trust your insticts, do your scouting during the offseason and know your team situations.

Don't be afraid to trade high draft picks to win NOW (if you're in the hunt and need a specific position/player to get you over the hump). Draft picks are great, but winning is more important. Be honest with yourself though and don't make the deal if you don't have a legitimate shot to win it all.

Follow those basic themes and you'll set yourself up for long-term success.

 

[lions327]

Don't be afraid to trade high draft picks to win NOW (if you're in the hunt and need a specific position/player to get you over the hump). Draft picks are great, but winning is more important. Be honest with yourself though and don't make the deal if you don't have a legitimate shot to win it all.

The bolded part is among the biggest mistakes I see year in and year out. Owners trading away their future when there is no way they can win now. People really have to be objective about their own teams, and if you can't, ask someone else for an honest opinion.

 

[Musesboy]

I think that the value of a good QB in a secure situation is often overlooked in the dynasty format.

It's fine to take QB/QB after 8 or 9 rounds of a redraft league. You can play matchups and you don't care what happens after the season. But in dynasty, there is added value in having stud QBs like Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, and McNabb.

Even now, Manning could play for another 7 or 8 seasons.

QB is usually the highest scoring position.

Plugging in a stud for 8 years can be very valuable. I still see guys drafting questionable QBs late and then suffering a year or two down the line.

 

[coolnerd]

Even though the black dot does not exist anymore.

 

[Bizkiteer]

Great stuff.

One thing you have to do in a dynasty is to be a forward thinker. By doing this, you will always have an idea of what your team may look like a year down the road, and even longer. If you can be prepared for upcoming weaknesses, such as players getting old and declining and/or possibly being benched, you can be prepared to replace them BEFORE they go down. You can still win now, and at the same time win later.

Another thing that I think is largely overlooked in dynasties is small deals. Every trade doesn't have to be a blockbuster. There are players you have that you don't really want. There are times you can see a roster problem, like having to cut players that are good enough to be on someone else's roster. Why not try to make a small deal? Even players at the end of your roster might be good enough to get a low pick, or maybe swapping picks, with you moving up a round. Small deals may only add a little bit, but its better than having to cut them and get nothing, not to mention you make enough small deals and all of a sudden, you can improve your draft position. I personally think this is one of the most overlooked things in fantasy football.

I'd also point out that when you are a true contending team, trade your #1 and/or #2 round draft picks for bodies that help keep you there. Why spend a #11 pick on R. Woods, when someone who is in re-building mode will gladly trade a real starting WR for the chance of who's going to be there at the back of the round. This is assuming that the owner is realistic in their team's chances...not like the owner that only won 2 games the year before, but because he got a young rookie RB with the top pick or #2 pick...he's going to the championship. Basically the bodies for another owner's gamble for potential will keep you in the upper tier.

 

[Family Matters]

Not to argue with anyone but this has little to do with luck. At least not winning consistently. Anyone can get lucky from time to time but the one's that seem to be lucky all the time are the ones that prepare. After all luck is really the magic of preparation meeting opportunity. In a sense you do create your luck and it starts with good preparation. Like anything else in life, you usually get out of it what you put into it. For those that leave their chances to luck, then luck will likely not find you very often.

 

[super sleeper]

Not to argue with anyone but this has little to do with luck. At least not winning consistently. Anyone can get lucky from time to time but the one's that seem to be lucky all the time are the ones that prepare. After all luck is really the magic of preparation meeting opportunity. In a sense you do create your luck and it starts with good preparation. Like anything else in life, you usually get out of it what you put into it. For those that leave their chances to luck, then luck will likely not find you very often.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"- Roman Philosopher Seneca, 1st Century A.D.

 

[lions327]

Not to argue with anyone but this has little to do with luck. At least not winning consistently. Anyone can get lucky from time to time but the one's that seem to be lucky all the time are the ones that prepare. After all luck is really the magic of preparation meeting opportunity. In a sense you do create your luck and it starts with good preparation. Like anything else in life, you usually get out of it what you put into it. For those that leave their chances to luck, then luck will likely not find you very often.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"- Roman Philosopher Seneca, 1st Century A.D.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Never find yourself in "rebuilding" mode.

We have this one owner who is constantly trading to get younger. The problem is, his players are just too young. I think it's a sickness with him; he just can't help himself when he sees potential in a player. He's an active owner and one of the better FF'ers in the league, but he can never seem to make it to the championship. Remember - the most important year in FF is always the current year. Even in a dynasty, I'll take current production over potential in a heartbeat. You want my Marshawn Lynch for your over-the-hill Shaun Alexander... deal. How about my Calvin Johnson for your Marvin Harrison? Done.

 

[Pickle Rody]

12 team, 5 keepers, max 2 per position.

Never be afraid to overpay for a player you think will get you to the championship. I've done it three straight years......'04 - P. Manning, '05 - S. Alexander & '06 - R. Wayne.....and every year I made it to the championship game. One Championship won, last year. I haven't drafted in the first few rounds in years....and will not again this year. ('05 - first pick in Rnd 6, 11 slot. '06 - first pick in Rnd 7, 11 slot. This year - first pick in Rnd 4, 12 slot.) The teams I have traded away my picks to have yet to get anywhere with those picks.

No fear. I don't need to draft early to put together a winning team. I just need to draft smart top to bottom. I'm never re-building. I'm always challenging for a title.

Work the waiver wire heavily and repeatedly. It pays off. In fact, I'd rather wait on rookies until after the draft and the season starts. Somebody always comes out of the woodwork every single year. I'm always the one picking up these players.

 

[faulkfan]

I adhere to a policy of mixing my team. I want veterans and rookies and I'm not afraid to give up a veteran who is producing but is getting ready to hit the wall to get a rookie who will offer moderate production this year and perhaps be a stud.

Like has been said, don't fall in love with a player. I fell in love with a player once and it cost me quite a bit of trade value. It was fittingly my namesake, Mr. Faulk. I swore that he had one more year in him and cut Willis McGahee to keep him. Faulk never did anything again and McGahee, although only slightly above average IMHO, would be far better than what I got for Marshall. Oh well, lesson learned.

Right now I am trying to trade Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson (from the team in my sig) for 2 of the top 3 picks, a couple RBs, and Randy Moss. Maybe it is a mistake, but due to keeper restrictions I can't keep Benson right now. If I trade Alexander I can keep Benson and will have a high pick. I can see Alexander having a big year this season as everyone seems to be writing him off, but I feel like its time to deal him. The same is true of LJ. I have a feeling in my gut that now is the time to get what I can for him and this leads to my other personal rule...

Go with your GUT! You'll be wrong sometimes, but if you have seen success in fantasy sports then you probably have a pretty solid understanding of what is going on. I figure my gut feeling is my subconcious trying to correct some bias I have or showing me something I missed or don't want to admit. I'm betting you all have a story of a time when what you were doing made no sense, but somehow you knew that you had to make a certain move. Then it all worked out in your favor. Your gut knows. I figure we all prepare like madmen, God knows I do. I think your gut helps keeps you on track.