Talk me out of going QB early (1 Viewer)

[ob187]

Hi:

I've got the 3rd pick in a 12 team non ppr league. I've always stocked up on RB's and WR's in the first six rounds.

Settings are: 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1flex, 1te, 1d, 1k

It's worked well, but I never get that stud qb since qb's go early in our league.

I know I'm going Ray Rice with the 3rd pick and usually go WR/WR or RB/WR depending on who is there. But been thinking of going RB/WR/QB to start then going RB/WR in 4/5 and 6/7.

What do u think?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT THE SHARK POOL

 

[shortbow]

Assistant Coach Forum

Reasons not to go QB early:

Unless you can get an elite QB (Romo doesnt count) the drop off is negligible, whereas your skill position players are infinitely more valuable since you start more than one.

Thats it.

 

[LawFitz]

Take Rivers as your 2nd round pick. You won't be sorry and you will miss out on him otherwise.

 

[jurb26]

Payton Manning can be had in the 4th round or later.... enough said.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Take Rivers as your 2nd round pick. You won't be sorry and you will miss out on him otherwise.

Pick Ovr Franchise Selection Date/Time Comments2.03 15. I KILLL YOUUUU Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Thu Aug 25 7:31:13 p.m. ET 2011 2.04 16. Love Boaters Vick, Michael PHI QB Thu Aug 25 7:47:37 p.m. ET 2011 3.01 25. Cleveland Brady, Tom NEP QB Fri Aug 26 12:41:12 p.m. ET 2011 3.07 31. Hunker Down's Rivers, Philip SDC QB Fri Aug 26 2:49:25 p.m. ET 20111.08 8. CHAMPIONSHIP Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Wed Aug 24 3:03:26 p.m. ET 2011 2.02 14. RaiderNation Vick, Michael PHI QB Wed Aug 24 5:47:30 p.m. ET 2011 2.07 19. Reverse Balldippers Brees, Drew NOS QB Wed Aug 24 10:46:23 p.m. ET 2011 2.10 22. M and M Boys Brady, Tom NEP QB Wed Aug 24 11:45:28 p.m. ET 2011 3.04 28. Illegal Cat Fighters Rivers, Philip SDC QB Thu Aug 25 11:18:02 a.m. ET 2011 2.05 17. rnklove Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Mon Aug 22 9:53:17 a.m. ET 2011 2.07 19. The Knuckles Vick, Michael PHI QB Mon Aug 22 11:44:19 a.m. ET 2011 3.11 35. Taco Wednesdays Brady, Tom NEP QB Tue Aug 23 7:14:45 a.m. ET 2011 4.05 41. Public Enemy Rivers, Philip SDC QB Tue Aug 23 1:14:19 p.m. ET 2011 1.07 7. Rockin Randall's BB Bombers Vick, Michael PHI QB .1.10 10. Brute Squad Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Tue Aug 16 1:08:18 p.m. ET 2011 1.12 12. Capps Crusaders Brady, Tom NEP QB Tue Aug 16 3:00:21 p.m. ET 2011 3.02 26. Bayside Ballhogs Brees, Drew NOS QB Wed Aug 17 6:12:03 p.m. ET 2011 3.04 28. The RAGES Romo, Tony DAL QB Wed Aug 17 6:24:19 p.m. ET 2011 4.02 38. The Lone Rangers Rivers, Philip SDC QB Thu Aug 18 7:34:06 p.m. ET 2011maybe maybe notI wouldn't take a qb early because I like Romo and Big Ben to put up points only slightly less than the guys going early.

 

[pizzatyme]

Reasons not to go QB before round 7:

Stafford

Ryan

Big Ben

Load up on Skill positions!

 

[two_dollars]

I got Rivers in the 5th.. there will be value.

 

[LawFitz]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

 

[bulger2holt]

It depends if it is 4 or 6 pts per passing TD.

 

[jurb26]

Payton Manning can be had in the 4th round or later.... enough said.

6 points per TD pass league.

 

[LawFitz]

Payton Manning can be had in the 4th round or later.... enough said.

6 points per TD pass league.

Shoulder injury.

 

[chihawk]

Don't be so quick on expecting Rice to be picked at #3, I have a feeling he will go #1 or #2 in many drafts now.

 

[shotgun72]

4 pt or 6 pt per touchdown doesn't matter and sholdn't be a part of the discussion.....

Wait on a QB

 

[Judge Smails]

4 pt or 6 pt per touchdown doesn't matter and sholdn't be a part of the discussion.....Wait on a QB

Um, yeah it does matter. I'm in a league where QB's get 6 points per TD, plus a 5 point bonus for over 300 yards. The super elite QB's seem to have 300 yard games every other week. They have been averaging 33-34+ TD's. The tier below will get 25-27 TD's with only a couple of 300 yard games. In these types of scoring formats the differential is great. And once you get to the middle of round 2, there are question marks around every RB and WR left on the board. Nothing wrong with taking a sure fire elite QB in these situations. From the 8th spot in a 12 teamer I went Mendenhall, Rivers, and then Nicks fell to me in round 3. LOVE that start with our scoring system.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

This is easy:

1) wait to see if Romo/Peyton falls to 5.3

2) wait to see if Ben/Ryan falls to 6.10

if not 1 or 2 then then take Stafford at 7.3 and Freeman/Bradford at 8.10. you'll be fine. most teams will be set at QB, so youll also have first crack at any John Beck or other types that emerge off WW.

 

[Judge Smails]

This is easy:1) wait to see if Romo/Peyton falls to 5.32) wait to see if Ben/Ryan falls to 6.10if not 1 or 2 then then take Stafford at 7.3 and Freeman/Bradford at 8.10. you'll be fine. most teams will be set at QB, so youll also have first crack at any John Beck or other types that emerge off WW.

For reference in our league Romo went 3.3. Peyton 2.9, Ben 5.7, Ryan 5.1, Freeman 7.5 and Stafford 8.2. So while the tier 2 guys went earlier, the Freeman/Stafford combo was realistic at those spots.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

This is easy:1) wait to see if Romo/Peyton falls to 5.32) wait to see if Ben/Ryan falls to 6.10if not 1 or 2 then then take Stafford at 7.3 and Freeman/Bradford at 8.10. you'll be fine. most teams will be set at QB, so youll also have first crack at any John Beck or other types that emerge off WW.

For reference in our league Romo went 3.3. Peyton 2.9, Ben 5.7, Ryan 5.1, Freeman 7.5 and Stafford 8.2. So while the tier 2 guys went earlier, the Freeman/Stafford combo was realistic at those spots.

was it nonPPR? QBs go earlier then. still the effect of being able to wait when you are the 11th or 12th to take a QB holds. Think of it in auction terms. your 2nd or 3rd round pick represents about 15-20% of your budget. your 5th maybe 7% Your 7th+8th, maybe 5% at the most. would you rather 18 for Romo or Peyton or 7 for Ben/Ryan or 5 for Freeman and Stafford?

 

[The Future Champs]

Take Rivers as your 2nd round pick. You won't be sorry and you will miss out on him otherwise.

Pick Ovr Franchise Selection Date/Time Comments2.03 15. I KILLL YOUUUU Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Thu Aug 25 7:31:13 p.m. ET 2011 2.04 16. Love Boaters Vick, Michael PHI QB Thu Aug 25 7:47:37 p.m. ET 2011 3.01 25. Cleveland Brady, Tom NEP QB Fri Aug 26 12:41:12 p.m. ET 2011 3.07 31. Hunker Down's Rivers, Philip SDC QB Fri Aug 26 2:49:25 p.m. ET 20111.08 8. CHAMPIONSHIP Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Wed Aug 24 3:03:26 p.m. ET 2011 2.02 14. RaiderNation Vick, Michael PHI QB Wed Aug 24 5:47:30 p.m. ET 2011 2.07 19. Reverse Balldippers Brees, Drew NOS QB Wed Aug 24 10:46:23 p.m. ET 2011 2.10 22. M and M Boys Brady, Tom NEP QB Wed Aug 24 11:45:28 p.m. ET 2011 3.04 28. Illegal Cat Fighters Rivers, Philip SDC QB Thu Aug 25 11:18:02 a.m. ET 2011 2.05 17. rnklove Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Mon Aug 22 9:53:17 a.m. ET 2011 2.07 19. The Knuckles Vick, Michael PHI QB Mon Aug 22 11:44:19 a.m. ET 2011 3.11 35. Taco Wednesdays Brady, Tom NEP QB Tue Aug 23 7:14:45 a.m. ET 2011 4.05 41. Public Enemy Rivers, Philip SDC QB Tue Aug 23 1:14:19 p.m. ET 2011 1.07 7. Rockin Randall's BB Bombers Vick, Michael PHI QB .1.10 10. Brute Squad Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Tue Aug 16 1:08:18 p.m. ET 2011 1.12 12. Capps Crusaders Brady, Tom NEP QB Tue Aug 16 3:00:21 p.m. ET 2011 3.02 26. Bayside Ballhogs Brees, Drew NOS QB Wed Aug 17 6:12:03 p.m. ET 2011 3.04 28. The RAGES Romo, Tony DAL QB Wed Aug 17 6:24:19 p.m. ET 2011 4.02 38. The Lone Rangers Rivers, Philip SDC QB Thu Aug 18 7:34:06 p.m. ET 2011maybe maybe notI wouldn't take a qb early because I like Romo and Big Ben to put up points only slightly less than the guys going early.

budman, is this an alias? /gaspumper

 

[Sabertooth]

Payton Manning can be had in the 4th round or later.... enough said.

6 points per TD pass league.

Shoulder injury.

Manning has a neck injury.

 

[fightingillini]

Unless you have very friendly QB scoring (6 pt per TD pass, bonuses at 300+ passing) where there would be a huge dropoff from the stud QBs to the next tier, or if you a flex QB spot, I always take this approach to drafting QBs.

I list the QBs that I would be happy with as my starter. There are 9 of them IMO. Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Romo, P Manning, Roethlisberger, Schaub, and Freeman. Look at the ADP for each of these QBs.

Rodgers 10

Vick 14

Brady 26

Brees 27

Rivers 30

P Manning 41

Romo 45

Schaub 59

Roethlisberger 68

Freeman 78

Based on these ADPs, I cross off Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees and Rivers. They're going too high.

Romo is going in the late 4th round, Schaub in the late 5th, Roethlisberger in the 6th and Freeman in the 7th. So my strategy is to start looking for a QB in Round 5. If Romo is there in the 5th round, take him and smile. If you miss on him, take Ben in the late 5th early 6th round. Just make sure that you get one of Romo/Schaub/Roethlisberger and Freeman. This allows you to take two solid backs and two solid WRs in the first four rounds.

With basic QB scoring (say 1 pt per 25 yards passing and 4 pts per TD pass), the difference between the stud QBs and say Roethlisberger isn't huge.

 

[Instinctive]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

 

[LawFitz]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

I've seen your analysis and while the 2 PPG boost over the QBBC field by itself might seem negligible, it doesn't account for the reliability and consistency factor that elite QBs present. The marginal 2 PPG over the QBBC field doesn't paint the entire picture IMO. I totally agree with you that scarcity is the biggest factor, but where we disagree is how scarce consistent, elite production is in 6 pt pass TD leagues with at least ten teams. I can't speak for eight team leagues.

 

[ppierce]

Don't, you'll lose, its stupid.

Sincerely,

Matt Stafford, Ben Rothlisberger and Sam Bradford

 

[da_budman]

HC you got me!!! Nahhh just coincidence. Looks like he went through the survivor drafts one of which he was a part of to prove his point. I THOUGHT I got a steal in that first draft getting Rogers in the second round but when all was said and done I wish I had passed on him even early second, and even 6 points per td becaus qb value REALLY slid.

I would say this to the original poster. I have been a proponent of waiting for years and just the last couple of years I have drafted a qb early in my home league. I drafted rogers there too only at 1.04!! I got to the 4th spot AP,foster,and rice already gone. My choices were charles, who im just not really high on, a lesser rb, or go early for one of the 2 wr's. I opted to go qb because I decided if I was gonna reach the qb who has been OUTSTANDING in pre season and who is a lock to be top 5 without injury was the pick.

Wait or not wait? Im a league full of FBG'ers and comparable It would have been a horrible move and I would have paid dearly. But in my league, a mix of sharks and guys who have played for awhile but just dont do much research what happened was the top 5 qb's went off the board by the top of round 3 and the rest of them panicked.

So instead of panicking myself I went wr,wr my next 2 picks... I ended up with felix jones and ingram (again know your league... rookies almost always slide in our league....)

and my team is pretty well set.

Moral of the story: I could have played it safe... and that would have been the smarter way to go in leagues full of great drafters. Or I could have went the way I did and ended up with what I think is a stronger team.

KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

How early you take him depends on your scoring system, but Phil Rivers is the QB to take this year.

I got Rivers in the 5th.. there will be value.

You should be arrested.

 

[Instinctive]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

I've seen your analysis and while the 2 PPG boost over the QBBC field by itself might seem negligible, it doesn't account for the reliability and consistency factor that elite QBs present. The marginal 2 PPG over the QBBC field doesn't paint the entire picture IMO. I totally agree with you that scarcity is the biggest factor, but where we disagree is how scarce consistent, elite production is in 6 pt pass TD leagues with at least ten teams. I can't speak for eight team leagues.

It's actually not that scarce in a 10 team league - I would never play in a ten teamer because talent isn't scarce enough.There's typically about 4 tip top guys, and then another 3-4 that score higher than the rest. That's somewhere between 6 and 8 elite QBs each year. In a ten team league...that's not scarce. If 70% or more of the owners have it, it isn't scarce. (IMO)

You definitely seem to understand that the driving factor is scarcity...but dude: The amount of points they get has ZERO BEARING on that scarcity. I agree wholeheartedly that the elite QBs also give you reliability and consistency...but getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 25 points for a TD changes that not at all.

We don't disagree about the scarcity. We are in fact more on the same page than most people who incorrectly believe that 4 or 6 point pass TDs affects QB value. Where we disagree (and you're completely wrong, no offense) is whether or not 6 points for a TD changes any of the factors that make an elite QB valuable. It doesn't. Regardless of scoring, there are less elite QBs than others. The elite guys are more consistent. They throw for more TDs. They throw for more yardage. They throw for a higher completion percentage. They throw for a higher Net AY/A. They throw less interceptions. They do all of these things (again) on a more consistent basis.

And they do all of those things regardless of whether or not they are getting 4 or 6 points for a TD pass.

Also - that 2 ppg difference is the max difference in a 12 team league. That's the difference between QB1 and QB12. QB 1 and 12 don't face off each week. Often it's QB3 and QB4, or QB2 and QB7, or.......an that already marginal ppg difference is even smaller.

 

[Fred Lane]

In my 12-team, 6-pt TD-P, -2 INT league, I drafted 4th and took Brady in the first round (behind Foster, Peterson & Rodgers). By the end of the first round, 8 QBs were already off the board. I still ended up with decent starters at skill positions (McFadden, Bradshaw, Nicks, M. Austin, V. Davis).

 

[meatwad1]

If anyone can answer this let me know...we are adding a flex player this year to normal ppr starters, that player could be a qb.

If we can potentially start two qbs in a 10 teamer, am i at an advantage if I take two great ones right off the bat? I can't figure out if it makes sense to try and get a Rodgers/Brady combo or Vick/Rivers combo

 

[Instinctive]

If anyone can answer this let me know...we are adding a flex player this year to normal ppr starters, that player could be a qb.If we can potentially start two qbs in a 10 teamer, am i at an advantage if I take two great ones right off the bat? I can't figure out if it makes sense to try and get a Rodgers/Brady combo or Vick/Rivers combo

Yes, it makes sense. QBs score more points than other positions (in most leagues). This usually doesn't mean much because all QBs score more, and their value lies in relation to how they score vs other QBs.However, put one in a flex, and even a bad QB is all but guaranteed to outscore any R/W/T flex player, and having 2 of the top QBs means not only are the available flex players for other teams worse...but their QB1 will not be as good either (because you should end up with two QB1s)

 

[by_tor]

This:

Moral of the story: I could have played it safe... and that would have been the smarter way to go in leagues full of great drafters. Or I could have went the way I did and ended up with what I think is a stronger team.KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE.

absolutely true- i'd say about 75% of the draft position info I read here is not applicable to my leagues. my IDP league has a qb scoring system that really penalizes for sacks/picks/fumbles and really rewards TDs and high completion %... the difference between say the top 6 and the rest of the qbs can be huge. I'd almost say its unfair- but we all know the rules, nobody is a fool for drafting the right qb in the 2nd round. good luck getting PRivers in the bottom of the 3rd- not gonna happen...know your audience, indeed

 

[LawFitz]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

I've seen your analysis and while the 2 PPG boost over the QBBC field by itself might seem negligible, it doesn't account for the reliability and consistency factor that elite QBs present. The marginal 2 PPG over the QBBC field doesn't paint the entire picture IMO. I totally agree with you that scarcity is the biggest factor, but where we disagree is how scarce consistent, elite production is in 6 pt pass TD leagues with at least ten teams. I can't speak for eight team leagues.

It's actually not that scarce in a 10 team league - I would never play in a ten teamer because talent isn't scarce enough.There's typically about 4 tip top guys, and then another 3-4 that score higher than the rest. That's somewhere between 6 and 8 elite QBs each year. In a ten team league...that's not scarce. If 70% or more of the owners have it, it isn't scarce. (IMO)

You definitely seem to understand that the driving factor is scarcity...but dude: The amount of points they get has ZERO BEARING on that scarcity. I agree wholeheartedly that the elite QBs also give you reliability and consistency...but getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 25 points for a TD changes that not at all.

We don't disagree about the scarcity. We are in fact more on the same page than most people who incorrectly believe that 4 or 6 point pass TDs affects QB value. Where we disagree (and you're completely wrong, no offense) is whether or not 6 points for a TD changes any of the factors that make an elite QB valuable. It doesn't. Regardless of scoring, there are less elite QBs than others. The elite guys are more consistent. They throw for more TDs. They throw for more yardage. They throw for a higher completion percentage. They throw for a higher Net AY/A. They throw less interceptions. They do all of these things (again) on a more consistent basis.

And they do all of those things regardless of whether or not they are getting 4 or 6 points for a TD pass.

Also - that 2 ppg difference is the max difference in a 12 team league. That's the difference between QB1 and QB12. QB 1 and 12 don't face off each week. Often it's QB3 and QB4, or QB2 and QB7, or.......an that already marginal ppg difference is even smaller.

Elite QBs are scarce b/c of consistency and the potential to throw 40+ TDs. Add an additional 2 pts per each TD they throw over the QBBC pelaton and that enhances the value of their already under-appreciated scarcity. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

[Instinctive]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

I've seen your analysis and while the 2 PPG boost over the QBBC field by itself might seem negligible, it doesn't account for the reliability and consistency factor that elite QBs present. The marginal 2 PPG over the QBBC field doesn't paint the entire picture IMO. I totally agree with you that scarcity is the biggest factor, but where we disagree is how scarce consistent, elite production is in 6 pt pass TD leagues with at least ten teams. I can't speak for eight team leagues.

It's actually not that scarce in a 10 team league - I would never play in a ten teamer because talent isn't scarce enough.There's typically about 4 tip top guys, and then another 3-4 that score higher than the rest. That's somewhere between 6 and 8 elite QBs each year. In a ten team league...that's not scarce. If 70% or more of the owners have it, it isn't scarce. (IMO)

You definitely seem to understand that the driving factor is scarcity...but dude: The amount of points they get has ZERO BEARING on that scarcity. I agree wholeheartedly that the elite QBs also give you reliability and consistency...but getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 25 points for a TD changes that not at all.

We don't disagree about the scarcity. We are in fact more on the same page than most people who incorrectly believe that 4 or 6 point pass TDs affects QB value. Where we disagree (and you're completely wrong, no offense) is whether or not 6 points for a TD changes any of the factors that make an elite QB valuable. It doesn't. Regardless of scoring, there are less elite QBs than others. The elite guys are more consistent. They throw for more TDs. They throw for more yardage. They throw for a higher completion percentage. They throw for a higher Net AY/A. They throw less interceptions. They do all of these things (again) on a more consistent basis.

And they do all of those things regardless of whether or not they are getting 4 or 6 points for a TD pass.

Also - that 2 ppg difference is the max difference in a 12 team league. That's the difference between QB1 and QB12. QB 1 and 12 don't face off each week. Often it's QB3 and QB4, or QB2 and QB7, or.......an that already marginal ppg difference is even smaller.

Elite QBs are scarce b/c of consistency and the potential to throw 40+ TDs. Add an additional 2 pts per each TD they throw over the QBBC pelaton and that enhances the value of their already under-appreciated scarcity. That's all I'm trying to say.

I can agree with that. But it isn't what you did say

 

[atl3695]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

I've seen your analysis and while the 2 PPG boost over the QBBC field by itself might seem negligible, it doesn't account for the reliability and consistency factor that elite QBs present. The marginal 2 PPG over the QBBC field doesn't paint the entire picture IMO. I totally agree with you that scarcity is the biggest factor, but where we disagree is how scarce consistent, elite production is in 6 pt pass TD leagues with at least ten teams. I can't speak for eight team leagues.

It's actually not that scarce in a 10 team league - I would never play in a ten teamer because talent isn't scarce enough.There's typically about 4 tip top guys, and then another 3-4 that score higher than the rest. That's somewhere between 6 and 8 elite QBs each year. In a ten team league...that's not scarce. If 70% or more of the owners have it, it isn't scarce. (IMO)

You definitely seem to understand that the driving factor is scarcity...but dude: The amount of points they get has ZERO BEARING on that scarcity. I agree wholeheartedly that the elite QBs also give you reliability and consistency...but getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 25 points for a TD changes that not at all.

We don't disagree about the scarcity. We are in fact more on the same page than most people who incorrectly believe that 4 or 6 point pass TDs affects QB value. Where we disagree (and you're completely wrong, no offense) is whether or not 6 points for a TD changes any of the factors that make an elite QB valuable. It doesn't. Regardless of scoring, there are less elite QBs than others. The elite guys are more consistent. They throw for more TDs. They throw for more yardage. They throw for a higher completion percentage. They throw for a higher Net AY/A. They throw less interceptions. They do all of these things (again) on a more consistent basis.

And they do all of those things regardless of whether or not they are getting 4 or 6 points for a TD pass.

Also - that 2 ppg difference is the max difference in a 12 team league. That's the difference between QB1 and QB12. QB 1 and 12 don't face off each week. Often it's QB3 and QB4, or QB2 and QB7, or.......an that already marginal ppg difference is even smaller.

This seems to be an argument that just wont die but OF COURSE how many points you get for a TD has a bearing on QB value. Now you can argue that 4 vs. 6 isnt ENOUGH but to say if it was 8,10,25 or whatever doesnt matter is simply incorrect. QB#12 last year was Carson Palmer

2010 qb's

Carson threw for 10 less td's than #1 (Brady). At 4 points per TD, Brady TD's score 40 points more than Carson, at 6 per TD Brady scores 60 more than Carson, and your extreme example of 25 pts, he scores 250 more than Carson. This is just changing TD value and keeping everything else the same so obviously TD points cause QB value to change in relation to other players AND within the qb's themselves.

 

[Judge Smails]

This is easy:1) wait to see if Romo/Peyton falls to 5.32) wait to see if Ben/Ryan falls to 6.10if not 1 or 2 then then take Stafford at 7.3 and Freeman/Bradford at 8.10. you'll be fine. most teams will be set at QB, so youll also have first crack at any John Beck or other types that emerge off WW.

For reference in our league Romo went 3.3. Peyton 2.9, Ben 5.7, Ryan 5.1, Freeman 7.5 and Stafford 8.2. So while the tier 2 guys went earlier, the Freeman/Stafford combo was realistic at those spots.

was it nonPPR? QBs go earlier then. still the effect of being able to wait when you are the 11th or 12th to take a QB holds. Think of it in auction terms. your 2nd or 3rd round pick represents about 15-20% of your budget. your 5th maybe 7% Your 7th+8th, maybe 5% at the most. would you rather 18 for Romo or Peyton or 7 for Ben/Ryan or 5 for Freeman and Stafford?

Yes - non PPR

 

[Judge Smails]

Unless you have very friendly QB scoring (6 pt per TD pass, bonuses at 300+ passing) where there would be a huge dropoff from the stud QBs to the next tier, or if you a flex QB spot, I always take this approach to drafting QBs.

I list the QBs that I would be happy with as my starter. There are 9 of them IMO. Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Romo, P Manning, Roethlisberger, Schaub, and Freeman. Look at the ADP for each of these QBs.

Rodgers 10

Vick 14

Brady 26

Brees 27

Rivers 30

P Manning 41

Romo 45

Schaub 59

Roethlisberger 68

Freeman 78

Based on these ADPs, I cross off Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees and Rivers. They're going too high.

Romo is going in the late 4th round, Schaub in the late 5th, Roethlisberger in the 6th and Freeman in the 7th. So my strategy is to start looking for a QB in Round 5. If Romo is there in the 5th round, take him and smile. If you miss on him, take Ben in the late 5th early 6th round. Just make sure that you get one of Romo/Schaub/Roethlisberger and Freeman. This allows you to take two solid backs and two solid WRs in the first four rounds.

With basic QB scoring (say 1 pt per 25 yards passing and 4 pts per TD pass), the difference between the stud QBs and say Roethlisberger isn't huge.

That's the risk. Everyone in a 6 point TD league starts getting nervous towards the end of the elite tier. When Romo goes I can almost guarantee Ben and Schaub will go quickly to owners who don't have the elite QB's. They want that solid 2nd tier. Likely won't get back to your pick. I wouldn't call that waiting on a QB strategy. If you expand your list to be happy with Ryan, Stafford, Eli and maybe Kolb to pair with Freeman then the strategy is viable and makes sense starting in the 7th round or so.

 

[nihsumi]

in a 12 team redraft 6pt for td

After taking Rice at 1.03 I took Brady at 2.10 over (Jennings, Nicks, Austin) got Hillis at 3.03. I keep wondering if I did the right thing here because I could have gotten Ben or Stafford at 5.03. At 5.03 I took Boldin for my 2nd WR (took Holmes at 4.10 over MarioM).

So it comes down to Brady+Boldin compared to say Jennings+Ben. I am ok with this decision because a) I am expecting Brady to have similar or better #s than last year, tds being key since Brady had 36 (216pts) to Ben's 17 (102pts) b) I am looking for Boldin's #s to go up and to be within 5-7pts each week of either of the WRs I passed on. I do believe Boldin will be a red zone target more so than last year. 4) I dont see Jennings #s getting better than last year especially if Finley stays healthy. Rogers will have 15 or more different receivers each week.

So I am seeing more upside and in worse case a break even scenario for points going Brady+Boldin.

 

[LawFitz]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

I've seen your analysis and while the 2 PPG boost over the QBBC field by itself might seem negligible, it doesn't account for the reliability and consistency factor that elite QBs present. The marginal 2 PPG over the QBBC field doesn't paint the entire picture IMO. I totally agree with you that scarcity is the biggest factor, but where we disagree is how scarce consistent, elite production is in 6 pt pass TD leagues with at least ten teams. I can't speak for eight team leagues.

It's actually not that scarce in a 10 team league - I would never play in a ten teamer because talent isn't scarce enough.There's typically about 4 tip top guys, and then another 3-4 that score higher than the rest. That's somewhere between 6 and 8 elite QBs each year. In a ten team league...that's not scarce. If 70% or more of the owners have it, it isn't scarce. (IMO)

You definitely seem to understand that the driving factor is scarcity...but dude: The amount of points they get has ZERO BEARING on that scarcity. I agree wholeheartedly that the elite QBs also give you reliability and consistency...but getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 25 points for a TD changes that not at all.

We don't disagree about the scarcity. We are in fact more on the same page than most people who incorrectly believe that 4 or 6 point pass TDs affects QB value. Where we disagree (and you're completely wrong, no offense) is whether or not 6 points for a TD changes any of the factors that make an elite QB valuable. It doesn't. Regardless of scoring, there are less elite QBs than others. The elite guys are more consistent. They throw for more TDs. They throw for more yardage. They throw for a higher completion percentage. They throw for a higher Net AY/A. They throw less interceptions. They do all of these things (again) on a more consistent basis.

And they do all of those things regardless of whether or not they are getting 4 or 6 points for a TD pass.

Also - that 2 ppg difference is the max difference in a 12 team league. That's the difference between QB1 and QB12. QB 1 and 12 don't face off each week. Often it's QB3 and QB4, or QB2 and QB7, or.......an that already marginal ppg difference is even smaller.

Elite QBs are scarce b/c of consistency and the potential to throw 40+ TDs. Add an additional 2 pts per each TD they throw over the QBBC pelaton and that enhances the value of their already under-appreciated scarcity. That's all I'm trying to say.

I can agree with that. But it isn't what you did say

I didn't think I was contradictory, but in case I was here is my position:1. Elite QBs are more scarce that people think (I speak from the 10-team league perspective) when you consider consistency and upside.

2. 6 pts per TD makes this already under-appreciated scarcity even more valuable, because it further separates them from the QBBC pack (by 2 PPG as you analyzed).

ETA:

3. And the additional two points per TD is more than a 2 PPG difference relative to non-QBs (for elites, it's a 6-8 PPG difference), further pushing elites up the draft board.

These factors warrant reaching earlier for them in drafts relative to 4 pt pass TD leagues. I would say at least a round earlier, if not two.

 

[Christo]

Reasons not to go QB before round 7:StaffordRyanBig BenLoad up on Skill positions!

Other than QB, of course.

 

[Instinctive]

Excuse me, my post about about taking Rivers in the second round was for 6 pt pass TD leagues only. In 4 pt pass TD leagues, I would wait on QBs for sure.

Also, didn't account for the flex when I posted earlier. That devalues QBs further unless QB is included in the flex options.

I don't want to repost the analysis I did, so maybe I will search the thread...but it's the one called something like Qbs in 4 vs 6 pt TD leaguesThe bottom line is that this is an idiotic reason to wait or not on QBs. The difference in ppg week to week is practically negligible. An elite QB has almost the exact same value in either league scoring system. The way their value changes is going from 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 teams and/or going to superflex or 2 QB.

I've seen your analysis and while the 2 PPG boost over the QBBC field by itself might seem negligible, it doesn't account for the reliability and consistency factor that elite QBs present. The marginal 2 PPG over the QBBC field doesn't paint the entire picture IMO. I totally agree with you that scarcity is the biggest factor, but where we disagree is how scarce consistent, elite production is in 6 pt pass TD leagues with at least ten teams. I can't speak for eight team leagues.

It's actually not that scarce in a 10 team league - I would never play in a ten teamer because talent isn't scarce enough.There's typically about 4 tip top guys, and then another 3-4 that score higher than the rest. That's somewhere between 6 and 8 elite QBs each year. In a ten team league...that's not scarce. If 70% or more of the owners have it, it isn't scarce. (IMO)

You definitely seem to understand that the driving factor is scarcity...but dude: The amount of points they get has ZERO BEARING on that scarcity. I agree wholeheartedly that the elite QBs also give you reliability and consistency...but getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 25 points for a TD changes that not at all.

We don't disagree about the scarcity. We are in fact more on the same page than most people who incorrectly believe that 4 or 6 point pass TDs affects QB value. Where we disagree (and you're completely wrong, no offense) is whether or not 6 points for a TD changes any of the factors that make an elite QB valuable. It doesn't. Regardless of scoring, there are less elite QBs than others. The elite guys are more consistent. They throw for more TDs. They throw for more yardage. They throw for a higher completion percentage. They throw for a higher Net AY/A. They throw less interceptions. They do all of these things (again) on a more consistent basis.

And they do all of those things regardless of whether or not they are getting 4 or 6 points for a TD pass.

Also - that 2 ppg difference is the max difference in a 12 team league. That's the difference between QB1 and QB12. QB 1 and 12 don't face off each week. Often it's QB3 and QB4, or QB2 and QB7, or.......an that already marginal ppg difference is even smaller.

This seems to be an argument that just wont die but OF COURSE how many points you get for a TD has a bearing on QB value. Now you can argue that 4 vs. 6 isnt ENOUGH but to say if it was 8,10,25 or whatever doesnt matter is simply incorrect. QB#12 last year was Carson Palmer

2010 qb's

Carson threw for 10 less td's than #1 (Brady). At 4 points per TD, Brady TD's score 40 points more than Carson, at 6 per TD Brady scores 60 more than Carson, and your extreme example of 25 pts, he scores 250 more than Carson. This is just changing TD value and keeping everything else the same so obviously TD points cause QB value to change in relation to other players AND within the qb's themselves.

I don't know if you know what this is already, but here since you seem to have forgotten.