What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

TBT: Found my 1987 Elias Baseball Analyst (1 Viewer)

40/40 seasons from Eric Davis and Strawberry on tap?
Turns out the book didn't do any projections about the upcoming season, but instead dove deep (by 1980s standards) into player and team performance the previous season: L/R, H/R, G/T splits, performance by month, leading off innings, with x runners on base, success percentages driving in runs, and late inning pressure situations.

On Eric Davis's section,

Loves to face Greg Mathews (2-for-2, 2 HRs)

Hates to face Fernando Valenzuela (0-for-8, 6 Ks)

Stole 80 bases the previous season, highest swipe total by a Red since 1911.

Stole 58 bases while hitting cleanup, by far most in NL. (Strawberry was second with 18, Sid Bream was third with 11).

Average one HR every 15.4 ABs, 2nd-highest rate in NL among guys with at least 10 HRs.

Dinged him for only driving in 10-of-28 runners on third with less than two outs, third-lowest rate in NL among those with at least 15 opportunities.

Strawberry:

Loves to face Bob Forsch (8-for-18, 5 HRs)

Hates to face Mike Krukow (1-for-21, 9 Ks)

Only player to total at least 100 HRs and 100 SBs over the last four seasons... Kirk Gibson missed by a single homer

Grounded into only four double plays in 117 opportunities, 5th-lowest rate in NL among qualifiers

Had only one hit in last 36 regular-season ABs against lefties in Shea Stadium, but took Bob Knepper deep in playoffs

Struck out 65 times against LHP, 4th-highest total over last 12 years, top three were all Reggie Jackson

 
Gregg Jeffries is going to be so great
No mention of Gregg Jeffries in the Mets section.

Predicted step back for Mets because their winning percentage improved in each of the previous five seasons, a sixth was unlikely. Also run differential wasn't as strong as W/L record in 1986.

Made a big fuss about Mets trading for Kevin McReynolds, as teams coming off a title rarely acquire a player of McReynolds's caliber.

Made a clumsy argument about Gary Carter's clutch pitch-calling abilities, since the best two teams at getting the last out (opponents' batting average in ninth inning with two outs while leading) in the 12-year history of Elias were the 1984 Expos and 1986 Mets.

 
Gregg Jeffries is going to be so great
No mention of Gregg Jeffries in the Mets section.

Predicted step back for Mets because their winning percentage improved in each of the previous five seasons, a sixth was unlikely. Also run differential wasn't as strong as W/L record in 1986.

Made a big fuss about Mets trading for Kevin McReynolds, as teams coming off a title rarely acquire a player of McReynolds's caliber.

Made a clumsy argument about Gary Carter's clutch pitch-calling abilities, since the best two teams at getting the last out (opponents' batting average in ninth inning with two outs while leading) in the 12-year history of Elias were the 1984 Expos and 1986 Mets.
Wasn't Jeffries '88?

 
Anything about the drugs suggested that writers take before voting on the MVP/Cy Young awards in 1987?
:lmao: unfortunately, no.Flipping through it, it's interesting to see saber-metrics in its infancy. It has a lot of the splits we see on sites like B-R and Fangraphs, OBP and SLG are listed right by AVG, there's a snapshot of ballpark effects. Yet it also dives deep into topics seamheads today would write off as luck instead of skill, like success rate driving in runs and late-inning pressure performance.

And in the space where a publication this ambitious would devote to projections, this book cites a bunch of past numbers today's analysts would categorize as trivial facts.

 
I only ever flipped through the Elias books at bookstores while checking to see if the new Abstract had come out yet. I remember them as dull compared to the provocativeness of James' writing. The data was there but not the insight.

The 80s was an interesting era for baseball nerds. Baseball America launched in 1980. The James and Elias books got wide distribution. The USA Today Baseball Weekly happened somewhere in there and the first edition of Rotisserie Baseball came out in 1984. This was all pre-Internet so you had to wait a week (or an off-season) for the information to be delivered but we didn't know any better.

 
I only ever flipped through the Elias books at bookstores while checking to see if the new Abstract had come out yet. I remember them as dull compared to the provocativeness of James' writing. The data was there but not the insight.
That's a fair assessment. Flipping through the 1987 Elias, there were a few good moments, like recapping Frank White's beef with the Royals Stadium official scorers followed up by a study of effects of playing surface (even different brands of artificial turf) on errors, doubles, and triples. Conclusion: the high number of errors at Royals Stadium were most likely caused by the official scorers having the broadest definition of "error" among all MLB scorers. They also got a little unlucky. They used the Dodgers section to discuss record in one-run games and how teams that lose a bunch of one-run games in one season tend to bounce back the next. Across MLB history that's true, but they drop this article on the Dodgers, who went 73-89 in 1986 while losing 38 one-run games, and rebounded in 1987 to go... 73-89.

Then there was the plain weird. Like in the Pirates section when they cut-and-pasted a Letterman Top Ten list.

The 80s was an interesting era for baseball nerds. Baseball America launched in 1980. The James and Elias books got wide distribution. The USA Today Baseball Weekly happened somewhere in there and the first edition of Rotisserie Baseball came out in 1984. This was all pre-Internet so you had to wait a week (or an off-season) for the information to be delivered but we didn't know any better.
I wasn't much into roto baseball, but as I've mentioned here many times, I had a serious Strat-O-Matic Baseball habit in the 1980s. It was thousands of innings of S-O-M that taught me that OBP was more important than AVG, that situational relief pitching was coming, and that bunting with anyone besides the pitcher was pretty much a waste of an out.

But yes, we didn't know any better on the delay of information. I remember sometimes not knowing the outcome of fantasy football games until Tuesday because sometimes we got an early edition of Monday's paper that didn't have all the NFL box scores in it. My dad would record NFL PrimeTime on the VCR, and watch the tape instead of live so he could pause the show to write down who scored the TDs.

 
I remember I had a huge book called The Scouting Report: 1987. A giant book of baseball analysis isn't usually a good gift for a 6-year-old, but I loved that thing.

About 20 or so players per team each got a full page complete with a strike zone chart and analysis from one of a few former players including Harmon Killebrew and Jim Kaat. Fringe players and top prospects got fractions of pages.

I don't remember if it had much in the way of sabermetrics but it'd be fun to find it and see. It might still be in my parents basement somewhere, albeit without the cover which fell off at some point.

 
Why aren't guys stealing 80-100 bases anymore? Is Henderson's single season record of 181 steals be becoming one if those "untouchable" records?

 
Why aren't guys stealing 80-100 bases anymore? Is Henderson's single season record of 181 steals be becoming one if those "untouchable" records?
Willy Taveras isn't walking running through that door.

I think the smart guys figured out that speed-only players like Vince Coleman, Omar Moreno and Ron LeFlore. weren't bringing that much to the party, especially as offense increased in the 90s due to smaller ballparks and PEDs. Rickey and Raines are obvious exceptions but they were able to get on base at a much higher clip than the first set of guys.

The current Billy Hamilton could do it if he could get on base but so could Joey Votto if you strapped a rocket to his ###.

ETA: I was wrong to lump Ron LaFlore in with Coleman and Moreno. LeFlore's career had a late start because of incarceration and cocaine didn't help his longevity but he had some very nice years in between.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looking forward to the 1988 edition and what it has to say about the balk rule.

And big :thumbup: on Strat-o-Matic changing how a kid/teen looked at the analytical side of the game. I still dabble a little in "Strat-o" (as we called it in our town ... had 2-3 different leagues going on at any given time back in the '80s).

 
1987, the year I thought Scott Fletcher was going to take the next step in leading the young Texas Rangers FINALLY to the playoffs. Charlie Hough, at 39 years young, won 18 games and pitched 285 innings, which means he smoked almost 300 cigarettes in the dugout hallway.

 
Gregg Jeffries is going to be so great
No mention of Gregg Jeffries in the Mets section.Predicted step back for Mets because their winning percentage improved in each of the previous five seasons, a sixth was unlikely. Also run differential wasn't as strong as W/L record in 1986.

Made a big fuss about Mets trading for Kevin McReynolds, as teams coming off a title rarely acquire a player of McReynolds's caliber.

Made a clumsy argument about Gary Carter's clutch pitch-calling abilities, since the best two teams at getting the last out (opponents' batting average in ninth inning with two outs while leading) in the 12-year history of Elias were the 1984 Expos and 1986 Mets.
Wasn't Jeffries '88?
Correct. There was no fuss made about him until 1988.

 
Gregg Jeffries is going to be so great
No mention of Gregg Jeffries in the Mets section.Predicted step back for Mets because their winning percentage improved in each of the previous five seasons, a sixth was unlikely. Also run differential wasn't as strong as W/L record in 1986.

Made a big fuss about Mets trading for Kevin McReynolds, as teams coming off a title rarely acquire a player of McReynolds's caliber.

Made a clumsy argument about Gary Carter's clutch pitch-calling abilities, since the best two teams at getting the last out (opponents' batting average in ninth inning with two outs while leading) in the 12-year history of Elias were the 1984 Expos and 1986 Mets.
Wasn't Jeffries '88?
Correct. There was no fuss made about him until 1988.
He was BA's minor league player of the year in 1986 and again in 1987.

 
Gregg Jeffries is going to be so great
No mention of Gregg Jeffries in the Mets section.Predicted step back for Mets because their winning percentage improved in each of the previous five seasons, a sixth was unlikely. Also run differential wasn't as strong as W/L record in 1986.

Made a big fuss about Mets trading for Kevin McReynolds, as teams coming off a title rarely acquire a player of McReynolds's caliber.

Made a clumsy argument about Gary Carter's clutch pitch-calling abilities, since the best two teams at getting the last out (opponents' batting average in ninth inning with two outs while leading) in the 12-year history of Elias were the 1984 Expos and 1986 Mets.
Wasn't Jeffries '88?
Correct. There was no fuss made about him until 1988.
He was BA's minor league player of the year in 1986 and again in 1987.
Well, I was 9 and 10 during the 1987. Maybe I didn't hear his name much that year. He did get a cup of coffee with the Mets that year.
 
News about minor leaguers wasn't anywhere near as widespread in 1987 as it is now. You had to work real hard to get news about minor leaguers, especially those not playing for your home team's organization. If a newbie was tearing up spring training it would get reported, but all the prospect rankings lists widely distributed today are a recent development.

I think I've mentioned this here before, but my first recollection of Gregg Jeffries was hearing his dad interviewed on the KMOX Cardinals pregame show while riding in the car to Busch II. His dad gave off would later be known as a "creepy-### Marv Marinovich vibe".

 
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
Chemical X said:
Why aren't guys stealing 80-100 bases anymore? Is Henderson's single season record of 181 steals be becoming one if those "untouchable" records?
if you can show me these 181 steals, I would say yes.
I typed 130. Damn autocorrect.
In your defense, if you asked Rickey Henderson himself about it, he would probably tell you, "Rickey once stole 181 bases in a season."
 
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
Chemical X said:
Why aren't guys stealing 80-100 bases anymore? Is Henderson's single season record of 181 steals be becoming one if those "untouchable" records?
if you can show me these 181 steals, I would say yes.
I typed 130. Damn autocorrect.
In your defense, if you asked Rickey Henderson himself about it, he would probably tell you, "Rickey once stole 181 bases in a season."
Maybe I am Rickey Henderson....

 
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
Chemical X said:
Why aren't guys stealing 80-100 bases anymore? Is Henderson's single season record of 181 steals be becoming one if those "untouchable" records?
if you can show me these 181 steals, I would say yes.
I typed 130. Damn autocorrect.
In your defense, if you asked Rickey Henderson himself about it, he would probably tell you, "Rickey once stole 181 bases in a season."
Maybe I am Rickey Henderson....
Are you Rickey Henderson?
 
Why aren't guys stealing 80-100 bases anymore? Is Henderson's single season record of 181 steals be becoming one if those "untouchable" records?
if you can show me these 181 steals, I would say yes.
I typed 130. Damn autocorrect.
In your defense, if you asked Rickey Henderson himself about it, he would probably tell you, "Rickey once stole 181 bases in a season."
Maybe I am Rickey Henderson....
Are you Rickey Henderson?
(Sigh)...no. :(

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top